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Thread: How did Villabruna get its ANE related ancestry?

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    How did Villabruna get its ANE related ancestry?

    So, how did ANE end up in Italy 12,000 BC?

    One of the clues we have is that AG3 is a better match for EHG than Mal'ta. AG3 is post-LGM and MA1 is pre-LGM and we know that ANE was stuck in a refuge during the LGM because pre-19,000 BC almost all Siberian sites are abandoned. This article has information on the recolonization of Siberia after the LGM by tracking the Siberian Microblade technology.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publica...er_Pleistocene



    So this means that ANE reached eastern Europe after the LGM, as the ANE ancestry there chooses AG3 over MA1. This thread at David's has some interesting D-stats:

    Mbuti AfontovaGora3 Villabruna Vestonice -0.0199 -3.844 213665
    Mbuti AfontovaGora3 Villabruna Kostenki14 -0.0281 -4.465 218311

    Mbuti MA1 Villabruna Vestonice -0.0061 -1.388 531468
    Mbuti MA1 Villabruna Kostenki14 -0.0124 -2.339 644492
    Eastern Europe was not abandoned until 17,000 years ago.

    https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...9FB37C8412805#

    Unlike western Central Europe (Street & Terberger 2000), the east was not abandoned by 25 000 BP. The Moravany data fit in a widespread Gravettian occupation of the region till approximately 21 000 BP. After 21 000 BP the focus of settlement moved southward to the Carpathian Basin. The area was abandoned by 17,000 BP. The abandonment of regions provides information on the limits of modern human hunter-gatherer adaptations, a subject that has not had the same attention as the process of colonisation.

    The two main factors in the abandonment process are the reorganisation of the biogeography due to the extension of the Finnoscandinavian and Alpine ice sheets and the decline in human available biomass due to an increase in aridity. Migration patterns changed due to the loss of the North European Plain, with reindeer and horse moving further southward into the Carpathian Basin. Mammoth and woolly rhinoceros did not move into the Carpathian Basin but to the more eastern plains. Raw materials and site distributions indicate the use of an enormous territory during the LGM. The evidence connects the moraines and valleys in southern Poland to the Carpathian Basin and Lower Austria, covering a territory of more than 200 000 km2 (Montet-White 1994; cf. Binford 1983, 110).

    The settlement history of eastern Central Europe shows continued occupation of the region till 17 000 BP. It demonstrates that human settlement continued during the temperature minimum of the Pleniglacial and that the area was deserted only afterwards. The main change at about 17,000 BP is an increase in aridity due to an extremely dry climate. This is shown in widespread aeolian deposition and very limited fluvial action, restricted to the bigger rivers only. The aridity caused a decline of the vegetation and subsequently a decrease in the density and diversity of animal resources. The fauna would not allow the long-term survival of human populations causing local extinction in eastern Central Europe after 17,000 BP.
    We have a site with Mammoth hunters 15,000 year ago in the Yudinovo site, a Russian site just north east of Ukraine and Mammoth paintings in Kapova Cave, in the south Urals.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publica..._Russian_Plain

    Several radiocarbon dates were obtained. All of them range from c. 16,000 to 12,000 BP and the majority date from 15,000 to 13,000 BP (Abramova et al., 2001). During that time, permafrost was present. The environment can be described as a periglacial steppe with open woodlands in the river valleys.
    So we can imagine ANE repopulating Siberia, but also the Russian plain following the last Mammoth herds. A part of these entered the Carpathian Basin.

    Is there any evidence for that? Archaeological evidence?
    Last edited by epoch; 06-09-2019 at 02:33 PM.

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    Does the ANE in modern day Europeans match with AG3 better than Mal'ta as well?

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    Quote Originally Posted by J Man View Post
    Does the ANE in modern day Europeans match with AG3 better than Mal'ta as well?
    I think I saw that in some stats somewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by epoch View Post
    I think I saw that in some stats somewhere.
    For EHG the order of preference for ANE source seems to be WSHG > AG3 > MA-1. For Villabruna the source should be something different since WSHG needs ancestry from Villabruna cluster.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kale
    Just tried some qpadm with Sidelkino
    Right pops:
    Barcin_N, Iran_N, Levant_N, Kotias, MA1, Anzick, ElMiron, GoyetQ116-1, Vestonice16, Kostenki14, Ami, Australian, Ust_Ishim

    I imagine Kotias could potentially be causing problems in the right, I'll try without after...
    Best combo was West_Siberia_N (the 6000bc one) and Lepenski_Vir_outlier (a Romanian WHG with a tiny bit of CHG). Tail prob 0.497
    Iron_Gates_HG worked ok as well, 0.425 tail, followed by KO1, Latvia_HG, and Loschbour all mid 30s.
    AG3 with or instead of WSHG was worse (0.2x)

    EDIT: Karelia_HG, same setup. Absolutely refuses to model with AG3/WSHG as primary source.
    Sidelkino + Lepenski_Vir_outlier = tail prob of 0.90! Coefficients 83 +/- 9.9% / 17 +/- 9.9%

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    On a side note, something interesting about AG3 is that it's the earliest aDNA to have the mutation for blond hair. We know Yamnaya had dark hair and eyes, so whichever population brought AG3 related ancestry to paleolithic Europe might have also introduced the light hair genes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thejkhan View Post
    On a side note, something interesting about AG3 is that it's the earliest aDNA to have the mutation for blond hair. We know Yamnaya had dark hair and eyes, so whichever population brought AG3 related ancestry to paleolithic Europe might have also introduced the light hair genes.
    It had the same mtDNA haplogroup as KO1: R1b (That is mtDNA R1b, mind you)

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    The story is not as simple as MA1 drifts and becomes AG3, and then AG3's brother mixes into WHG.
    There are some key discrepancies between MA1 and AG3 that do not fit that narrative.

    MbutiDG GoyetQ116-1 AG3 MA1 0.0286 3.06 7753 7322 164200
    MbutiDG Kostenki14 AG3 MA1 0.0264 3.028 8489 8052 182810
    MbutiDG Vestonice16 AG3 MA1 0.0176 1.855 7497 7238 163293
    MbutiDG Ust_Ishim AG3 MA1 0.0203 2.67 8750 8403 193505
    Collection of 14,000 d-stats: Hidden Content Part 2: Hidden Content Part 3: Hidden Content PM me for d-stats, qpadm, qpgraph, or f3-outgroup nmonte models.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post
    The story is not as simple as MA1 drifts and becomes AG3, and then AG3's brother mixes into WHG.
    There are some key discrepancies between MA1 and AG3 that do not fit that narrative.

    MbutiDG GoyetQ116-1 AG3 MA1 0.0286 3.06 7753 7322 164200
    MbutiDG Kostenki14 AG3 MA1 0.0264 3.028 8489 8052 182810
    MbutiDG Vestonice16 AG3 MA1 0.0176 1.855 7497 7238 163293
    MbutiDG Ust_Ishim AG3 MA1 0.0203 2.67 8750 8403 193505
    Wait, the oldest European HG's were closer to Mal'ta than to AG3? And Ust almost?

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    Quote Originally Posted by epoch View Post
    Wait, the oldest European HG's were closer to Mal'ta than to AG3? And Ust almost?
    One possibility is that MA-1 and the oldest Euro-HG's share archaic admixture which got selected out later (seen in the youngest samples Vestonice and AG3 getting close to each other). But that should be tested with a tree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaikorth View Post
    One possibility is that MA-1 and the oldest Euro-HG's share archaic admixture which got selected out later (seen in the youngest samples Vestonice and AG3 getting close to each other). But that should be tested with a tree.
    GoyetQ116 has east Asian ancestry. Kostenki14 is modeled as part Ust'Ishim in the Dzudzuana paper. That paper automated the modeling, and that possibility rolled out of it. Could Ust'Ishim have left some ancestry in East-Asians, K14 and GoyetQ116?

    There is this paper with the claim that Siberians have 38% Ust'Ishim: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/029421v1
    Last edited by epoch; 06-10-2019 at 06:14 PM.

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