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Thread: The Kurgan Bell Beaker People

  1. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    I’ve heard there is an increase in the likelihood of mutations as men get older. Younger wives would enable an old man to keep producing sons with more odds of having a mutation, so this could be a factor as well.
    I'll go with that version. Not because the wives were multiple, but because the dads were old, and still dadding away -- which they weren't still doing with the good old gal from back home on the steppe. Apart from multiple wives (either several at once, or serially as we more commonly practice), just plain late marriage would have that mutational effect. That happens in many cultures where brides are assured only for those who can afford dowries, plus the subsequent maintenance costs.

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  3. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muircheartaigh View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by razyn View Post
    No doubt, but having multiple wives and descendant "branches" therefrom would not increase the (theoretical) rate of Y chromosome mutations.
    Multiple defendants may not increase the rate of Y chromosome mutations, but it may result in a reduction in the timespan between mutations. A mutation rate of say 1 in 5 generations is the same as 1 mutation for every 5 male offspring. If the child carrying the mutation is prolific in reproduction there is a high chance that 2 mutations will occur over 2 generations in one line compared to 10 where a dynasty has a low reproduction rate.
    Muircheartaigh is completely right here. One of the signals of recent rapid population growth is an accumulation of singletons, doubletons, and other new mutations (i.e. increased diversity that is completely novel). Rapid population growth within a short period (likely for the BB males) would create star clusters, whose elements can then expand afterward.
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  4. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893
    I’ve heard there is an increase in the likelihood of mutations as men get older. Younger wives would enable an old man to keep producing sons with more odds of having a mutation, so this could be a factor as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by razyn View Post
    I'll go with that version. Not because the wives were multiple, but because the dads were old, and still dadding away -- which they weren't still doing with the good old gal from back home on the steppe. Apart from multiple wives (either several at once, or serially as we more commonly practice), just plain late marriage would have that mutational effect. That happens in many cultures where brides are assured only for those who can afford dowries, plus the subsequent maintenance costs.
    Dr. Iain McDonald has written about the man's age / mutation likelihood factor. It has been shown be true.

    It is for this reason that we should not estimate subclade ages in generations and mutations per generation. Instead, mutations per time (year) is a the proper mechanism.

    I am more inclined towards Mitchell on the reasoning. In my own family I was surprised to find out how many times a first wife died in childbirth or after childbirth. If they are fertile and keep pumping out the babies they have sacrificed their bodies in many respects.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 08-15-2019 at 04:21 PM.

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  6. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    Dr. Iain McDonald has written about the man's age / mutation likelihood factor. It has been shown be true.

    It is for this reason that we should not estimate age in generations and mutations per generation. Instead, mutations per time (year) is a the proper mechanism.

    I am more inclined towards Mitchell on the reasoning. In my own family I was surprised to find out how many times a first wife died in childbirth or after childbirth. If they are fertile and keep pumping out the babies they have sacrificed their bodies in many respects.
    The vast majority of the variation in mutagenesis between different populations has to do with the number of meioses that took place within the time period in question from the past, and not the average age of the fathers or mothers when they had their children.

    The reason why Y-str diversity in R1a is greatest in India is because of the large number of generations that fit within a given time period in that country, due to cultural factors specific to it. The same effects will cause mutations to accumulate when population growth in a clade is high, causing many branches to arise (and conversely, single twigs without branches tend to result when the population of a clade is low).

    The other thing is, the number of mutations is greater in older fathers, yes, but each older father has his children born on average later in his life, so the effective generation time is longer for him. Its true that mutations per time period is more relevant as a measure, and by that measure older fathers have their larger number of mutations spread over a longer time period, which depresses the effect of age alone.
    Last edited by Ryukendo; 08-15-2019 at 03:48 PM.
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  8. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    The vast majority of the variation in mutagenesis between different populations has to do with the number of meioses that took place within the time period in question from the past, and not the average age of the fathers or mothers when they had their children.

    The reason why Y-str diversity in R1a is greatest in India is because of the large number of generations that fit within a given time period in that country, due to cultural factors specific to it. The same effects will cause mutations to accumulate when population growth in a clade is high, causing many branches to arise (and conversely, single twigs without branches tend to result when the population of a clade is low).

    The other thing is, the number of mutations is greater in older fathers, yes, but each older father has his children born on average later in his life, so the effective generation time is longer for him. Its true that mutations per time period is more relevant as a measure, and by that measure older fathers have their larger number of mutations spread over a longer time period, which depresses the effect of age alone.

    Just to make sure I'm understanding you correctly, using the tree at https://www.ytree.net/

    Theoretically, the shortest timeline possible would be:

    The MRCA man carrying the P312 mutation may have had many sons. Some with no mutations and others with one or more.

    One of MRCA P312's sons could have received the the Z40481 mutation
    >Z40481 could have had:
    >>1 son with both ZZ11, Z38841 mutations. This ZZ11, Z38841 son could have had:
    >>>One son with the U152 mutation
    >>>One son with the DF27 mutation

    Under this shortest timeline conceivable (no pun intended)
    If RISE563 was the original U152 son of ZZ11/Z38841 (I highly doubt this to be the case...based on the long odds of getting that lucky), and he was born around 2500 BC (dated at death at around 2542 BC)
    Mr. ZZ11, Z38841 above could have been born around 2525 BC.
    Mr. Z40481 could have been around 2550 BC
    And Mr. P312 could have been born around 2575 BC.

    Am I correct in my understanding?
    Even if the mutations occurred as stated above, it may be prudent/realistic to assume RISE563 is a few generations removed from the original carrier of the U152 SNP. 4 generations removed at 25 years per generation would put P312 being born around 2675 BC.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 08-17-2019 at 02:47 AM.
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  9. #116
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    The archaeological evidence for an explosion of P312 c 2550BC-2400BC whose clades quickly formed geographical patterns that remain today and the total linkage with just one culture does tend to imply P312 was not very old at the time. If it was already 500ys old in 2500BC then it would be hard to picture how that cultural unity still existed then. Also hard to explain how a rapidly branching clade could be invisible in ancient DNA for 509 years. I think the ancient DNA and archaeological evidence would tend to favour a date for P312 a little closer to yFull’s than say 2909/3000BC. At the same time I doubt it as AS YOUNG as yfull claims as it just leaves far too tiny a group spreading all over Europe suddenly c2500BC. My guess is P312 dates to c. 2700BC

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  11. #117
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    The archaeological evidence for an explosion of P312 c 2550BC-2400BC whose clades quickly formed geographical patterns that remain today and the total linkage with just one culture does tend to imply P312 was not very old at the time. If it was already 500ys old in 2500BC then it would be hard to picture how that cultural unity still existed then. Also hard to explain how a rapidly branching clade could be invisible in ancient DNA for 509 years. I think the ancient DNA and archaeological evidence would tend to favour a date for P312 a little closer to yFullís than say 2909/3000BC. At the same time I doubt it as AS YOUNG as yfull claims as it just leaves far too tiny a group spreading all over Europe suddenly c2500BC. My guess is P312 dates to c. 2700BC

  12. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    The archaeological evidence for an explosion of P312 c 2550BC-2400BC whose clades quickly formed geographical patterns that remain today and the total linkage with just one culture does tend to imply P312 was not very old at the time. If it was already 500ys old in 2500BC then it would be hard to picture how that cultural unity still existed then. Also hard to explain how a rapidly branching clade could be invisible in ancient DNA for 509 years. I think the ancient DNA and archaeological evidence would tend to favour a date for P312 a little closer to yFullís than say 2909/3000BC. At the same time I doubt it as AS YOUNG as yfull claims as it just leaves far too tiny a group spreading all over Europe suddenly c2500BC. My guess is P312 dates to c. 2700BC
    Remember though that the first rumblings for steppe Bell Beaker may have started even earlier:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sq8...ew?usp=sharing
    Paternal: R1b-U152 >> L2 >> FGC10543, Pietro della Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Galicia, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain
    Paternal Great (x3) Grandfather: R1b-U106 >> L48 >> CTS2509, Filippo Ensabella, b.~1836, Agira, Sicily, Italy

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