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Thread: The Kurgan Bell Beaker People

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Can anyone tell me how many Swedish battle axe period yDNA samples have been tested? Am I right in thinking there has been only two - one R1a and one U106?
    As far as I know, that's right, but whether or not the U106 guy truly belonged to the Battle Axe culture has been disputed.
    Last edited by rms2; 08-13-2019 at 08:37 PM.
     


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  3. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by rozenfeld View Post
    Speaking of Fatyanovo: recently there were excavations in Moscow region and the human remains of Fatyanovo were found: https://popular-archaeology.com/arti...burban-moscow/

    Archaeologists are planning to make genetic analysis of them, but it will take time.
    Yes, and the permafrost in northern Siberia will thaw before they release the data.
     


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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    David on Eurogenes said 'there was very little Balto-Slavic-specific drift in Poland during the Bronze Age, and that the people there were more like Beakers from the Lower Rhine than the proto- or para-Balts from the East Baltic' http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2019/0...r-beakers.html

    So there do seem to have been people with compatible autosomal beaker genetics in Poland. Can someone remind me what Fatyanovo were like? They were more western than Yamnaya and early CW werent they?

    Im just getting a very strong feeling that the ancestors of beaker were hiding not too far from the south Baltic area around northern Poland prior to a westwards migration 2550BC that led to the formation of the P312 beaker culture in Germany and Holland.

    My view in general since more ancient DNA data has come out and having a long hard think about the archaeological issues has slowly pushed my view of the origins and migration path of the future beaker people further and further north. I basically am convinced the path from the steppe was north of the Carpathians and the more I think about it I am seeing it passing significantly north of the Carpathians and its myriad of farmer cultures that bell beaker apparently didnt admix with initially. A path from the steppes through the GAC and northern TRB zone in the northern half of Poland or thereabouts seems to make sense. Then an existence in a fairly north-eastern part of the the CW culture around Poland c. 2900-2550BC before breaking out of the Oder-Vistula area into the Elbe and north sea area and forming the bell beaker culture.
    Alan, your reasoning is pretty good. In particular, it deals with the 'missing' L51 trail from the Samara region. We have ample evidence of L51's brother clade of Z2103 spreading from the Samara Valley in *all* directions and notably into the Carpathian Basin where they appeared to stay mostly east of the Tiza river.

    It has always seemed probable that U106 (and S1194) reached the Sth Baltic via a route north of the Carpathians. It makes sense that P312 was part of that migration as you suggest, reaching there as L51 or L151 people who travelled up the *known* trade routes of rivers that pass through Russia, Ukraine & Poland & northeast Germany. There were many good reasons for people seeking wealth/trade who were in the Steppes, to want to travel to the Sth Baltic coast just for the Amber let alone other trading possibilities emerging at that time (tin & bronze). But putting trade aside, L51 or L151 reaching that area before the *explosive* expansions is viable.

    One alternate hypothesis that could have 'legs', if the aDNA burial data can be found to back it up, is that P312 split from U106 & s1194, in the region of Kiev (Ukraine) and that group traveled into what is today Austria & Switzerland & then along the Danube & Rhine. The PIE split between languages mostly spoken by P312 & U106 is one reason that supports an early split between the two.

    I *no* longer expect (but can still be proven wrong), that P312 or L151 or even L51 aDNA burials will be found in the Carpathian Basin in the east other than the finds in the north at Csepel which we have good reason to believe was a trading post 3000-2500 BCE.

    One bit of evidence few people seem to be aware of, is the 2005 study done by A A Foster who back then pointed to Khazakstan as the starting point of R1b based of STR diversity. He pointed out that looking at the R1b STR data available at that time (mostly academic databases), that the origin of R1b was in the Steppes, the greatest diversity was in Russia & the Baltic coast. He then points to the next oldest being Western Europe & UK and the youngest R1b STR diversity showing up on the Atlantic coast (i.e. Iberia). I spent quite a bit of time looking into his STR diversity technique and trying it on other data sources including R1a. In almost all cases my findings were the same as Fosters. An advantage that A A Foster had in his data sources in 2005, was that the data gathered was dominantly academic studies whereas today, the data we can look at tends to be biased by commercial Y-DNA gathering driven by the dominant interest in the USA. Also, in 2005 STR data was about all he had to work on whereas today we have a wealth of NGS snp data, but again biased by commercial DNA testing driven by USA interest.

    Here is a link to the Foster work. IMHO while he had his dates way out of whack & did not know of the Yamnaya migrations (thus he thought R1b were HG) his STR diversity analysis was a remarkable bit of work that seems to be being validated more as time passes. This link is to a name project that quotes A A Fosters study. I am not able to find a reliable original link to the original paper. I tried to contact him some years back but he is either deceased or no longer following DNA.

    http://www.lowensteyn.com/haplo_olde...JwP7aKlmvwtjIQ

    SUMMARY EXTRACT: (NOTE: Foster's work ends just before the table at this link)

    A.A.Foster. 13 March, 2005.


    Based on the differences and diversity of the alleles of R1b's DYS390 locus, there is evidence that there are four regional variants of the R1b sub-haplogroup in Europe. These are:
    (i) Baltic-Russian. (ii) NorthSea-Baltic. (iii) Alpine-South German. (iv) Atlantic.

    In Central and Western Europe, north of its great mountain ranges - The Pyrenees, Alps, and others - the major rivers flow northwest and northwards to the Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic. Only the Danube, which flows eastwards from the Northern Alpine regions to the Black sea, follows a different pattern. Extrapolating from data available within the online "YHRD" database (?, see below) suggested all variants of R1b in Europe, as pre-historic hunter-gatherers, entered Europe from the east, and migrated and expanded along rivers and coastlines, and across the ridgeways of high ground, eventually to reach the Baltic, North Sea, Mediterranean and Atlantic coastlines.

    The mean frequency for DYS390=24 within the whole of the "YHRD" European database is about 59% of the R1b DYS390 population. In Iberia and France, and in the more remote areas of the British Isles, it averages almost 70% and reaches 80%. But in the Baltic regions the frequency is consistently low: it averages only 33% throughout the Baltic States, about 43% in the Netherlands, and 47% in Baltic Germany. The lowest European percentage (29%) is to be found in Moscow, Russia. An even lower frequency, of 22%, can be found in Asian Khazakstan.

    Complete R1b data from the "YHRD" database, indicated that, after an earlier existence in Asian Khazakstan, all European variants of R1b shared an existence in Russia ( in the region of Kazan, on the Volga river at about 55° North and 50° East), and that, later they separated and expanded into two major migrations ( a westward migration to the Russian-Baltic region, and a south-western migration to the Black Sea area and then further, westwards, to the Alpine-South German region). Eventually, a North Sea-Baltic migration evolved from the Russian-Baltic expansion; and an Atlantic migration evolved from the Alpine-South German variant.
    Last edited by dsm; 08-13-2019 at 10:57 PM. Reason: added NOTE re limit of Fosters' writing.

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    Last edited by alan; 08-14-2019 at 12:03 AM.

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    I certainly think the idea L151 moved initially from the steppe zone towards the Baltic fits on many levels. Yfull dates the TMRCA of all L151 to about 2850BC which is very close to the date of the start of CW. So we are talking incredibly low about just one man or a tiny group of his immediate descendants. Is it any wonder we haven’t found L151 yet? There was a big surge west of CW very soon after the common L151 ancestor. Again, if L151 was swept along in that move west that covered Europe from the south Baltic to the Rhine rowdy the chances of it being visible in the first century or so after the common ancestor are incredibly low. The slowness of the growth can be seen by the fact the TMRCA of its two main branches are a 100+ 300ys younger than the L151 TMRCA.

    In theory L151 could have spent the era 2850BC-2500BC almost anywhere from the Baltic to the Rhine or scattered in several places -though the options are limited to areas that could produce the autosomal signal of P312 beaker (and that Swedish U106). That requires GAC or northern TRB substrate and imo means north or north-central Europe between Germany and the south Baltic zone. Archaeologically I think some core beaker traits look derived from CW east of the Oder not CW in Germany/Denmark/Holland/alpine. So putting that all together I think P312 prior to Central European beaker culture forming was likely ta stay home line that did not move west in the great CW wave of c 2800/2900BC. I think it stayed home on the east side of the Oder/near the south Baltic or inland.

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    I tend to think L51 might have been in the early western vanguard of Corded Ware, which really hasn't been tested. The Dutch Model sees the source of Beaker in Single Grave Corded Ware in the Netherlands, especially in Protruding Foot Beaker. I don't see why that couldn't be right.

    I don't see Sweden as a likely source. If it were, I think we'd see some U106 in central European and British Beaker, and we don't.
     


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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Yfull dates the TMRCA of all L151 to about 2850BC which is very close to the date of the start of CW. So we are talking incredibly low about just one man or a tiny group of his immediate descendants.
    You may be talking about that, but you aren't entitled to the royal "we," and some of the rest of us aren't. It is perfectly OK to doubt the fine accuracy of YFull's currently estimated TMRCA of all L151. And I do. I think it's older; we are talking about a good many clans (probably somewhat specialized in patrilineal occupations) by 2800 BC -- and the only "tiny numbers" here are the numbers of relevant male remains from that time period, anywhere near far enough east, that have already been found -- and had their YDNA sequenced with NextGen technology. The few we've seen aren't the only people then living.

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    I certainly agree about the fine accuracy of YFull's estimates. I'm not knocking YFull, but I think it's a mistake to see their estimates as anything more than just estimates, with pretty wide margins of error.

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    I’m inclined to go with McDonald’s dates which are a couple of hundred years earlier than yfull dates.

    P312 dates
    http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/ge...312/table.html

    U106 dates
    http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~mcdonald/genetics/table.html
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 08-14-2019 at 02:47 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    I tend to think L51 might have been in the early western vanguard of Corded Ware, which really hasn't been tested. The Dutch Model sees the source of Beaker in Single Grave Corded Ware in the Netherlands, especially in Protruding Foot Beaker. I don't see why that couldn't be right.

    I don't see Sweden as a likely source. If it were, I think we'd see some U106 in central European and British Beaker, and we don't.
    i agree Sweden is very unlikely (though not impossible) as a source for the P312 line. Though finding (even if it is late and atypical) a U106 guy in a same of just 2 Swedish battle axe men if it isnt a fluke suggests a major U106 presence in CW Sweden. If his ancestors got there at the start of the arrival of battle axe in Sweden c. 2850BC then he was a pretty early L151 derivative and a little earlier than yfull suggest the TMRCA of U106 - though that is not worth quibbling about as yfull may be producing dates a little young. Nevertheless it almost certainly shows a presence of U106 somewhere on the Baltic and this Swedish guy was not culturally beaker. He was genetically not dissimilar to beaker but neither were the CW people in Poland. It certainly points to U106 being on a river or shore with access to the Baltic at that time. If you couple that with the fact that U106 doesnt appear to have had access to rivers west of the Oder or the north sea in the beaker era then I think its pretty clear U106 was probably lurking in the rivers (probably in Poland) that can access the Baltic. The Oder not only accesses the Baltic opposite southern Sweden but it is navagible almost to Moravia and the Moravian gap gives access to the Danube. Perhaps explains the L11* guy at Csepel in a non-beaker grave. I personally think L151 as a whole may have been in that sort of Oder area or just east between the Oder and Vistula between c. 2850 and 2550BC when P312 broke out west. The beaker burial rite definitely more resembles CW related groups of east and north-east Europe and Sweden than it does the area west of the Oder in Germany etc. It seems U106 only came into existence about 100 years after the L151 common ancestor and P312 a century or so later so I suspect U106 was a small pretty unified group in one place for at least a century maybe more. Not surprising when you consider even a rather prolific man does need a couple of centuries to produce a significant clan of descendants.

    Irish early medieval laws saw the maximum stretch of inheritance interest of the smallest sept type unit as going out to descendants of a common great great great grandfather. My GGG grandfather was born around 150 years before me. So, that could be the sort of ballpark for the length of time between a common founder and major fission of the clan into two groups. Maybe also true back in the copper age. If so it would be within the sort of timeframe that U106 and P312 (or its ancestor) must have formed distinct lineage.

    The relative positioning of the two groups before the beaker era might be suggested by their subsequent first appearance. U106 first appears in Sweden which might suggest they lived in the lower part of a river like the Oder near the Baltic shores. P312 at c. 2550 seems to have made it to the Elbe. I would guess this was accomplished by moving from the middle Oder to the middle Elbe by land with the beaker culture developing in east-central Germany c. 2550BC via ecclectic interaction with other cultures. A prior shared life of all L151 on the Oder might explain where beakers and the U106 battle axe guy got its boating ability. Almost the entire length of it is considered navigable from the Baltic to the Moravian border.

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