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Thread: DNA study reveals 130,000 Hungarians are at least 50% Jewish

  1. #1
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    DNA study reveals 130,000 Hungarians are at least 50% Jewish


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    Interesting. It doesn't surprise me all that much, but I really wonder how they extrapolate that figure from MH data, considering how skewed their numbers are (not just the economic factors mentioned in the article, but also the number of expats that take the test in a given country). I'm sure they've taken that into account, but it's always a bit mysterious to me.

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    I will type here current data on averages, that is published on myheritage.

    MyHeritage has collected DNA data from people around the world. Using the Ethnicities around the world feature, you can explore the most common ethnicities in different countries, and the top countries for each ethnicity, according to MyHeritage DNA users' data.

    When viewing most common ethnicities in a country, the percentages next to the ethnicities represent the total number of MyHeritage DNA users in that country who have that ethnicity. For example, 66.8% of MyHeritage DNA users in Italy have Italian heritage. The percentages do not include how much Italian heritage was found in each Ethnicity Estimate, only the portion of the MyHeritage DNA users in Italy with Italian in their Ethnicity Estimates.
    Ashkenazi Jewish ethnicity - top countries
    Israel - 51.6%
    Hungary - 18,3%
    Argentina - 14,5%
    Russia - 14,2%
    South Africa - 11,9%
    Equador - 11,7%
    Panama - 11,5%
    Monaco - 11,2%
    Colombia - 10,7%
    Chile - 10,6%
    Romania - 10,3%
    Brazil - 10,3%
    ...
    Ukraine - 9,8%
    ...
    Poland - 4,8%

    I guess Ashkenazi Jewish in many Latin America countries comes partly from Sephardim as it is sometimes difficult to recognize the difference properly, especially from a person with a heavy mix of Mediterranean ancestries.
    But Jewish admixture in East Europe is mostly recent. People here on AG wrote that is looks like an overestimation, when I wrote about 1 mln of people in Moscow who have a right to immigrate to Israel under the law of return (lets call them "potential repartiants" for short). I do not insist on this number 1 mln, as I never conducted an investigation myself, but I am quite sure that 300 thousands of "potential repartiants" in all Russia is definitely a very serious underestimation.
    Last edited by artemv; 08-13-2019 at 05:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    I will type here current data on averages, that is published on myheritage.



    Ashkenazi Jewish ethnicity - top countries
    Israel - 51.6%
    Hungary - 18,3%
    Argentina - 14,5%
    Russia - 14,2%
    South Africa - 11,9%
    Equador - 11,7%
    Panama - 11,5%
    Monaco - 11,2%
    Colombia - 10,7%
    Chile - 10,6%
    Romania - 10,3%
    Brazil - 10,3%
    ...
    Ukraine - 9,8%
    ...
    Poland - 4,8%

    I guess Ashkenazi Jewish in many Latin America countries comes partly from Sephardim as it is sometimes difficult to recognize the difference properly, especially from a person with a heavy mix of Mediterranean ancestries.
    But Jewish admixture in East Europe is mostly recent. People here on AG wrote that is looks like an overestimation, when I wrote about 1 mln of people in Moscow who have a right to immigrate to Israel under the law of return (lets call them "potential repartiants" for short). I do not insist on this number 1 mln, as I never conducted an investigation myself, but I am quite sure that 300 thousands of "potential repartiants" in all Russia is definitely a very serious underestimation.
    I'm not saying that there's overcounting or undercounting as far as specific studies are concerned. I would assume that the statisticians MH worked with on the above study took the necessary variables into account. But clearly MH figures in themselves are not a reliable indicator of real percentages of people with Jewish heritage (or any heritage for that matter) in a given country, since they're only telling you figures based on the percentage of people who happen to have ordered one of their kits in a given country, regardless of whether the individuals actually live in that country or have ancestors who lived in that country. Even if we're just talking about citizens of that country, how can MH users possibly be a representative cross-section of the national population as a whole? Are we to believe that 12% of South Africans have Ashkenazi ancestry, when less than 9% of the population is white (yes, I'm sure there are a few people with Jewish ancestry who aren't classified as white, but you get the picture)?

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    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    I will type here current data on averages, that is published on myheritage.



    Ashkenazi Jewish ethnicity - top countries
    Israel - 51.6%
    Hungary - 18,3%
    Argentina - 14,5%
    Russia - 14,2%
    South Africa - 11,9%
    Equador - 11,7%
    Panama - 11,5%
    Monaco - 11,2%
    Colombia - 10,7%
    Chile - 10,6%
    Romania - 10,3%
    Brazil - 10,3%
    ...
    Ukraine - 9,8%
    ...
    Poland - 4,8%

    I guess Ashkenazi Jewish in many Latin America countries comes partly from Sephardim as it is sometimes difficult to recognize the difference properly, especially from a person with a heavy mix of Mediterranean ancestries.
    But Jewish admixture in East Europe is mostly recent. People here on AG wrote that is looks like an overestimation, when I wrote about 1 mln of people in Moscow who have a right to immigrate to Israel under the law of return (lets call them "potential repartiants" for short). I do not insist on this number 1 mln, as I never conducted an investigation myself, but I am quite sure that 300 thousands of "potential repartiants" in all Russia is definitely a very serious underestimation.
    It's recent in Russia, but not elsewhere in Eastern Europe. How many Russians have Ukrainian, Polish, Belarusian etc ancestry? A lot may be through those lines.
    Last edited by StillWater; 08-13-2019 at 08:26 PM.
    הִנְנִי֩ מֵבִ֨יא אוֹתָ֜ם מֵאֶ֣רֶץ צָפ֗וֹן

    Jeremiah 31

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    Quote Originally Posted by passenger View Post
    Even if we're just talking about citizens of that country, how can MH users possibly be a representative cross-section of the national population as a whole?
    - People who suspect unusual or "exotic" ancestry are more likely to order DNA tests.
    - People whose culture highly values genealogy (Adam begat Seth, Jacob begat Joseph, etc.) are more likely to order DNA tests.
    - People with higher income, education, etc., are more likely to order DNA tests.

    I wonder whether statisticians can accurately adjust for all such factors.

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  12. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgmayka View Post
    - People who suspect unusual or "exotic" ancestry are more likely to order DNA tests.
    - People whose culture highly values genealogy (Adam begat Seth, Jacob begat Joseph, etc.) are more likely to order DNA tests.
    - People with higher income, education, etc., are more likely to order DNA tests.

    I wonder whether statisticians can accurately adjust for all such factors.
    Statistics is a large part of ethnicity estimation. And we know how well MyHeritage does that.
    הִנְנִי֩ מֵבִ֨יא אוֹתָ֜ם מֵאֶ֣רֶץ צָפ֗וֹן

    Jeremiah 31

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    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    I will type here current data on averages, that is published on myheritage.



    Ashkenazi Jewish ethnicity - top countries
    Israel - 51.6%
    Hungary - 18,3%
    Argentina - 14,5%
    Russia - 14,2%
    South Africa - 11,9%
    Equador - 11,7%
    Panama - 11,5%
    Monaco - 11,2%
    Colombia - 10,7%
    Chile - 10,6%
    Romania - 10,3%
    Brazil - 10,3%
    ...
    Ukraine - 9,8%
    ...
    Poland - 4,8%

    I guess Ashkenazi Jewish in many Latin America countries comes partly from Sephardim as it is sometimes difficult to recognize the difference properly, especially from a person with a heavy mix of Mediterranean ancestries.
    But Jewish admixture in East Europe is mostly recent. People here on AG wrote that is looks like an overestimation, when I wrote about 1 mln of people in Moscow who have a right to immigrate to Israel under the law of return (lets call them "potential repartiants" for short). I do not insist on this number 1 mln, as I never conducted an investigation myself, but I am quite sure that 300 thousands of "potential repartiants" in all Russia is definitely a very serious underestimation.
    I believe the % is the proportion of people in each country with some ancestry from these ethnic groups. I'm actually surprised it's so low in Israel considering that most non-Ashkenazi Jews and many non-Jewish Levantines get a small % of Ashkenazi.

    But I would guess that the vast majority of Latin Americans and Eastern Europeans have a tiny percentage Ashkenazi (1-5%). I don't think this reflects the number of people eligible for Law of Return.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jonahst View Post
    I believe the % is the proportion of people in each country with some ancestry from these ethnic groups. I'm actually surprised it's so low in Israel considering that most non-Ashkenazi Jews and many non-Jewish Levantines get a small % of Ashkenazi.

    But I would guess that the vast majority of Latin Americans and Eastern Europeans have a tiny percentage Ashkenazi (1-5%). I don't think this reflects the number of people eligible for Law of Return.
    Artem's point is that unlike in other countries, Russians who make up that statistic, are of recent Ashkenazi ancestry or at least a larger proportion are. I'm skeptical of his claim, but he read the data properly.
    Last edited by StillWater; 08-14-2019 at 12:18 AM. Reason: clarity
    הִנְנִי֩ מֵבִ֨יא אוֹתָ֜ם מֵאֶ֣רֶץ צָפ֗וֹן

    Jeremiah 31

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    Actually, we can partly test this claim, assuming the proportion of those who are half to fully Jewish aren't over represented in on MH relative to those who are 1/4 Jewish (in the case of Russia). Given MyHeritage's matching system, everyone who is fully Ashkenazi should have about the same amount of matches from Russia. See what proportion are 1/4 Jewish.

    I'm betting everyone who is fully Ashkenazi has 95-110 matches in Russia.
    Last edited by StillWater; 08-14-2019 at 12:26 AM.
    הִנְנִי֩ מֵבִ֨יא אוֹתָ֜ם מֵאֶ֣רֶץ צָפ֗וֹן

    Jeremiah 31

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