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Thread: How much of Bulgarian ancestry is Aegean/Sicilian-like versus NE European/Slavic?

  1. #21
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    IMO, you can not estimate the Slavic contribution in the autosomal DNA of the Bulgarians without observing their uniparental haplogroups.

    The Bulgarian uniparentals are diverse and don't show recent founder effect, apart from the highly identifiable Slavic marker I-Y3120 with founder effect approximately 2200 ybp according to the scientist Ken Nordtvedt and also according the YFULL tree!

    In that regard I will use the study "Y-Chromosome Diversity in Modern Bulgarians: New Clues about Their Ancestry" to estimate the Slavic input in the modern Bulgarians and to find a correlation with a certain model using unscaled G25!

    The Bulgarian ydna, 808 testes:



    As I already said, the marker I-Y3120 is the most identifiable Slavic marker, followed by R1a. Bear in mind, not all of R1a is of the Slavic variety but there is some R-Z93 as well in the range of 1-2%.However, there is probably some small percentage of other haplogroups that came with the Slavs. Using this parameters, the Slavic input is between 36-38%.

    The best model for the Bulgarians it seems is this one:

    [1] "distance%=0.7886"

    Bulgarian

    HUN_Avar_Szolad,37.6
    Scythian_MDA,31.2
    ITA_Collegno_Med_o1,16.8
    BGR_IA,14.4

    Although in the model were included other Balkan samples like HRV_IA, this samples is not preferred!
    The main contributors of the Bulgarian ethnogenesis seem to be the people living in the Eastern Balkans, Thracians, Dacians, Getae, Scythians, along with some Greco-Roman(Byzantine) input and the Slavs! We can also observe some small percentage of EA lineages but when I include such populations in the model, the fit gets worse and that is because such kind of input is already represented by 'Scythian_MDA', which had some small EA input itself!
    [1] "penalty= 0"
    [1] "distance%=2.3722"

    Aspar_scaled

    BGR_IA,38
    HUN_Avar_Szolad,31.4
    Scythian_MDA,21
    GRC_Mycenaean,9.6


    [1] "penalty= 0.001"
    [1] "distance%=1.5817"

    Aspar

    Scythian_MDA,44.8
    HUN_Avar_Szolad,30
    BGR_IA,19.4
    GRC_Mycenaean,5.8

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aspar View Post
    IMO, you can not estimate the Slavic contribution in the autosomal DNA of the Bulgarians without observing their uniparental haplogroups.



    Bulgarian

    HUN_Avar_Szolad,37.6
    Scythian_MDA,31.2
    ITA_Collegno_Med_o1,16.8
    BGR_IA,14.4
    How is this not identical to what I already shared? The only difference is that those Bulgarian samples prefer the Middle Ages sample STR 300, instead of Iron Ages BGR IA, but they both serve as proxies for a pre-Slavic population between the Danube and the Greeks. I also don't believe that small but still existent East Asian influence stuck around since the Iron Age. It's likely from the Turkics/Mongols who came to these parts later.

    "The best model for Bulgarians from what I have looks to be

    Sample Fit DEU MA--AED 106 DEU MA O--STR 300 HUN Avar Szolad Han NChina ITA Collegno MA O1--CL25 Scythian MDA
    Bulgarian:Average 1.244 1.67 12.5 38.33 0.83 16.67 30
    "
    Last edited by Dorkymon; 08-20-2019 at 01:09 PM.
    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    Global 25: 45% Anatolia_N, 40% Yamnaya_UA, 12% Baltic_HG, 3% Han
    Global 25 IA-EMA (Hidden Content ): Fit 1.15 | 36% Thracian/Getae (18% MJ12 + 15% ACD STR300 + 3% Scythian MDA), 33% Balto-Slav (22% EST MA + 11% Avar Szolad), 28% Chernyakhov Culture,
    3% Han
    Hidden Content

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  5. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dorkymon View Post
    How is this not identical to what I already shared? The only difference is that those Bulgarian samples prefer the Middle Ages sample STR 300, instead of Iron Ages BGR IA, but they both serve as proxies for a pre-Slavic population between the Danube and the Greeks.

    "The best model for Bulgarians from what I have looks to be

    Sample Fit DEU MA--AED 106 DEU MA O--STR 300 HUN Avar Szolad Han NChina ITA Collegno MA O1--CL25 Scythian MDA
    Bulgarian:Average 1.244 1.67 12.5 38.33 0.83 16.67 30
    "
    I never said that your model is not good or anything of that sort.
    I am just giving mine insight on the matter.
    [1] "penalty= 0"
    [1] "distance%=2.3722"

    Aspar_scaled

    BGR_IA,38
    HUN_Avar_Szolad,31.4
    Scythian_MDA,21
    GRC_Mycenaean,9.6


    [1] "penalty= 0.001"
    [1] "distance%=1.5817"

    Aspar

    Scythian_MDA,44.8
    HUN_Avar_Szolad,30
    BGR_IA,19.4
    GRC_Mycenaean,5.8

  6. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aspar View Post
    I never said that your model is not good or anything of that sort.
    I am just giving mine insight on the matter.
    Ah, I thought you didn't see it, since you arrived at the same conclusion in the end.
    Known ancestry: 1/2 Romanian Northeast + 1/4 Romanian Southeast + 1/4 Romanian Bukovina Ukraine
    23andme: 53.6% Greek & Balkan (4% Broadly South Euro), 35.7% East Euro, 0.3% Ashkenazi Jewish, 6.5% Broadly Euro
    Global 25: 45% Anatolia_N, 40% Yamnaya_UA, 12% Baltic_HG, 3% Han
    Global 25 IA-EMA (Hidden Content ): Fit 1.15 | 36% Thracian/Getae (18% MJ12 + 15% ACD STR300 + 3% Scythian MDA), 33% Balto-Slav (22% EST MA + 11% Avar Szolad), 28% Chernyakhov Culture,
    3% Han
    Hidden Content

  7. #25
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    [1] "distance%=0.6029"


    Bulgarian


    SLAVIC,38.4
    ILLYRIAN-THRACIAN-DACIAN,36.4
    GRECO-ROMAN,21.2
    BALTIC,2.6
    BALTIC-INGRIA,1.4

    or

    [1] "distance%=0.6111"


    Bulgarian


    SLAVIC,36.4
    ILLYRIAN-THRACIAN,29.8
    GRECO-ROMAN,15
    ANATOLIAN,6
    LEVANTINE,4.8
    BALTIC,2.4
    IBERIAN,1.2
    INGRIA,0.8
    TARTESSIAN,0.8
    ALANIC,0.4
    ANDAMAN,0.4
    BALTIC-INGRIA,0.4
    GOTHS,0.4
    LUSITANIAN,0.4
    HIMALAYAN,0.2
    JAPANESE,0.2
    PACIFIC,0.2
    SOUTH_AFRICAN,0.2
     
    Paper Trail MyHeritage K36 G25 Mod. FTDNA
    NW Croatian 87.5%
    Slovenian 6.25%
    Unknown 6.25%
    E. Europe 35.7%
    Balkan 34.4%
    Scandinavia 21.2%
    Baltic 8.7%
    Grenzmark 0.94
    Czechs 0.93,
    Hungary 0.91
    Volhyn 0.91,
    C. Rusyns 0.91
    Slovenia 0.91
    Czech 1.79
    Hungarian 2.02
    Slovenian 2.07
    Croatian 2.39
    Ukrainian 3.01
    East Europe 99%
    Trace 1%

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  9. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aspar View Post
    IMO, you can not estimate the Slavic contribution in the autosomal DNA of the Bulgarians without observing their uniparental haplogroups.

    The Bulgarian uniparentals are diverse and don't show recent founder effect, apart from the highly identifiable Slavic marker I-Y3120 with founder effect approximately 2200 ybp according to the scientist Ken Nordtvedt and also according the YFULL tree!

    In that regard I will use the study "Y-Chromosome Diversity in Modern Bulgarians: New Clues about Their Ancestry" to estimate the Slavic input in the modern Bulgarians and to find a correlation with a certain model using unscaled G25!

    The Bulgarian ydna, 808 testes:



    As I already said, the marker I-Y3120 is the most identifiable Slavic marker, followed by R1a. Bear in mind, not all of R1a is of the Slavic variety but there is some R-Z93 as well in the range of 1-2%.However, there is probably some small percentage of other haplogroups that came with the Slavs. Using this parameters, the Slavic input is between 36-38%.
    We should not forget that share of Y-chomosome markers can differ greatly from share in overall ancestry.
    We all remember how greatly differs share of Anatolian farmers Y-chr branches and share of their ancestry in autosomes.

    And yes, again - Y3120 is the only one young clade in the list. Most of other happlogroups include both Slavic, non-Slavic and "not possible to classify" branches.
    R-Z93 also has some Slavic sub-branches, and R1a not Z93 has many non-Slavic branches. R1b, E, I-M223, G, even J2 - all have likely Slavic branches.
    By the way, the olny one Bulgarian I-M223 sample currently on y-full is from a likely Slavic branch.


    Quote Originally Posted by Aspar View Post
    The best model for the Bulgarians it seems is this one:

    [1] "distance%=0.7886"

    Bulgarian

    HUN_Avar_Szolad,37.6
    Scythian_MDA,31.2
    ITA_Collegno_Med_o1,16.8
    BGR_IA,14.4

    Although in the model were included other Balkan samples like HRV_IA, this samples is not preferred!
    The main contributors of the Bulgarian ethnogenesis seem to be the people living in the Eastern Balkans, Thracians, Dacians, Getae, Scythians, along with some Greco-Roman(Byzantine) input and the Slavs! We can also observe some small percentage of EA lineages but when I include such populations in the model, the fit gets worse and that is because such kind of input is already represented by 'Scythian_MDA', which had some small EA input itself!
    Pre-Slavic Roman era population is understimated here, just because BGR_IA sample is too old. If it is possible, one should try to use in model only contemporary populations.

  10. #27
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    @artemv

    How would you define a "Slavic branch"?

    As for me, I would define it as a branch that is present in at least two out of the three major Slavic groupings (which are the West, East and South Slavs) and shows much higher frequency among those Slavs than in any remaining populations (making possible exception for some non-Slavic populations that are known to have been very strongly influenced by the Slavs, like the Hungarians, Romanians, Austrians, East Germans, etc.). This makes it almost certain that such a branch was originally associated with the expanding Slavs, and was not just a local non-Slavic branch that was assimilated by the incoming Slavs, or a foreign branch that was introduced to some Slavic groupings in more recent times.


    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    R-Z93 also has some Slavic sub-branches
    Which ones do you have in mind?

    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    and R1a not Z93 has many non-Slavic branches.
    This is correct, but these are extremely rare in the Balkans (or among the Slavs from other parts of Europe), so their contribution can be neglected in all similar calculations.

    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    R1b, E, I-M223, G, even J2 - all have likely Slavic branches.
    I am aware of only one Slavic subclade of R1b, and this is R1b-PH2302 (also known as R1b-Y14300 or L23EE). As for the remaining haplogroups (E, G, J2), could you please let us know which "Slavic" sub-branches you have in mind?

    Quote Originally Posted by artemv View Post
    By the way, the olny one Bulgarian I-M223 sample currently on y-full is from a likely Slavic branch.
    Again, which particular branch do you have in mind? And why do you think it should be called "Slavic"?
    Last edited by Michał; 08-23-2019 at 01:40 AM.

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  12. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michał View Post
    @artemv

    How would you define a "Slavic branch"?
    Slavic branch is a branch, that was present among Early Slavs, who expanded in the 6th century.
    As far as we do not have Early Slav DNA (and will not have, as far as Early Slavs used cremation as a burial ritual), we can only suppose looking at modern Ychr distribution.
    This definition gives us one important formal criteria: only branches that were formed 1500 ybp or earlier can be Slavic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Michał View Post
    As for me, I would define it as a branch that is present in at least two out of the three major Slavic groupings (which are the West, East and South Slavs) and shows much higher frequency among those Slavs than in any remaining populations (making possible exception for some non-Slavic populations that are known to have been very strongly influenced by the Slavs, like the Hungarians, Romanians, Austrians, East Germans, etc.). This makes it almost certain that such a branch was originally associated with the expanding Slavs, and was not just a local non-Slavic branch that was assimilated by the incoming Slavs, or a foreign branch that was introduced to some Slavic groupings in more recent times.
    What you write here is not a definition. It is criteria. If we are talkig about historical migrations and ancestry (of Bulgarian Ychr branches, for example) the definition I gave earlier is the only possible definition. However, that definition doesn't give us a useful criteria of a Slavic happlogroup (except for happlogroup formation time, which is of course not enough to distinct Slavic happlogroups from not-Slavic).

    I agree that happlogroups that follow these your criteria are likely Slavic, but:
    - in case if we find some happlogroup, that follows all these criteria, but we know that it was not present among Early Slavs (got into several Slavic groups from elsewhere and became absent in the place where it came from), it should not be considered Slavic;
    - if we have some happlogroup, that is present only in one Slav group, it can be well derived from Early Slavs.

    I understand that it would be difficult for me to argue about each of the small groups, but let me ask you two questions:
    1. What do you think was the fate of small Ychr branches of Early Slavs? (My answer is: some of them probably didn't survive, others likely survived only in a single major group of Slavs. This means, that even if Ychr branch is found only in a single major Slavic group it should not be labled automatically as not-Slavic).
    2. All the current European populations have some percent of happlogroups E, G, J2. For example in Ukraine together they make about 15% of population. Do you think all of them are relatively recent immigrants from Balkans?

    You formulated your criteria to find happlogroups, that can be called Slavic without serious doubt. This means, you automatically add to non-Slavic all the cases with some doubt, and, thus get much lower estimation of Slavic-Ychr.
    Please note also, that Slavic Y-chromosome can come from a group that contributed little or close to nothing to Slavic autosomal DNA.

    Quote Originally Posted by Michał View Post
    This is correct, but these are extremely rare in the Balkans (or among the Slavs from other parts of Europe), so their contribution can be neglected in all similar calculations.
    Alltogether small branches will give significant percent. It would be a good idea to separate branches let's say for those definitely Slavic, those that were definitely present in pre-Slavic Romanized population of the region, those that definitely arrived later and branches under doubt. You will see that percent of those under doubt will be surprisingly high.

    Quote Originally Posted by Michał View Post
    I am aware of only one Slavic subclade of R1b, and this is R1b-(also known as R1b-Y14300 or L23EE). As for the remaining haplogroups (E, G, J2), could you please let us know which "Slavic" sub-branches you have in mind?
    I do not see really big, 100% sure Slavic branches, but there are number of old enough and potencially Slavic happlogroups. Many of them will turn out to be Slavic. Here are some examples:
    https://www.yfull.com/tree/J-Y29718/
    https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-YP5271/
    https://www.yfull.com/tree/G-Z39501/
    https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-Y41959/

    https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Y14088/
    Let's discuss this group of close relatives, who desided to make a test alltogether.
    You will probably say, their happlogroup came to region with some celtic group, or even stayed somewhere in the region since BB times. But this doesn't contradict the idea, that they could have been part of some Early Slav group in the 5th-6th centuries.
    There are some Ychromosome branches, that stayed for many millenia on the British Isles, without emigrating outside. But it looks like this is the case only for some isolated ares: people always moved between the regions, so did Ychr happlogroups. Common expectation of one's male-line ancestors to live in the same place for several millenia in most cases would be wrong.

    P.S. Ok, it looks that I've likely mistaken about Slavic R1a-Z93.

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