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Thread: How much of Bulgarian ancestry is Aegean/Sicilian-like versus NE European/Slavic?

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    How much of Bulgarian ancestry is Aegean/Sicilian-like versus NE European/Slavic?

    How much of Bulgarian ancestry is East Mediterranean vs from Slavic settlers? And is there any additional Near Eastern that cannot be explained by the former?

    How do they compare in this regard to Serbs, Romanians, Bosnians, and Croats?

    Can someone model them? Thanks

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    I've made a PCA using Past3 a while ago based on a simple 3 population model: Greek_Crete, Italian_Tuscan and Ukrainian!
    Using these three populations as references pretty much you can model very accurately all of the Balkans.

    The PCA:



    Admixture stacked chart:



    I found that using Greek_Crete as a reference instead of Sicilian_East gives much better fit and visual results when it comes to PCA for the Balkan populations!
    Target: Aspar_scaled
    Distance: 1.9646% / 0.01964602 | ADC: 1x RC
    57.6 Macedonian
    42.4 Greek_Central_Macedonia

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    I forgot to say that I am using unscaled coordinates for the modeling!

    Serbs and Montenegrins:



    Bosnians:



    Romanians:



    Greeks:



    Albanians:

    Last edited by Aspar; 08-15-2019 at 09:07 AM.
    Target: Aspar_scaled
    Distance: 1.9646% / 0.01964602 | ADC: 1x RC
    57.6 Macedonian
    42.4 Greek_Central_Macedonia

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aspar View Post
    I found that using Greek_Crete as a reference instead of Sicilian_East gives much better fit and visual results when it comes to PCA for the Balkan populations!
    Because Cretans have minor Slavic themselves, and lack the North African of Sicilians. But we can clearly see Bulgarians are, combined, much more Cretan + Tuscan like (Southcentral/southeast European) than they are like Ukrainians.

    Bosnians seem the most genuinely 'Slavic' while Serbs and Romanians the most Tuscan-like, and Albanians have the least Slavic of all the Balkanites, less than Greeks themselves. Some Greeks are coming up as being as "Ukrainian" like as some of the South Slavs.
    Last edited by Sikeliot; 08-15-2019 at 10:09 PM.

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    Somewhat related to the topic at hand. A while back I ran an interesting, though by no means literal or particularly informative experiment.
    Step 1) Run F3 outgroup stats to show shared drift modern populations (in HumanOrigins2068 dataset) have with key ancient references, these being...
    Barcin_N Levant_N Iran_N Kotias Taforalt MA1 Anzick_Kennewick Iron_Gates_HG EHG Yamnaya_Samara Ami Australian Ust_Ishim
    Step 2) Discover which modern populations could NOT be modeled as a mix of other moderns.
    Step 3) Model other moderns with only the populations that could not be modeled themselves.

    Bulgarians came out as...
    33.85% Greek
    33.15% Lithuanian
    22.15% Sardinian
    5.65% Saami
    5.15% Georgian
    0.05% Chukchi
    With a quite good fit.
    Most of North/West/Central Europe came out as a mix of Greek, Lithuanian, and Sardinian. The Saami & Georgian combo is a bit unique.

    Compare to Romanians...
    45.35% Lithuanian
    27.5% Greek
    17.1% Sardinian
    6.2% Balkar (there were 3 groups from the Caucasus which couldn't be modeled)
    2.7% BedouinB
    1.15% Mansi

    And Croatians...
    49.25% Lithuanian
    36.1% Greek
    13.45% Sardinian
    1.2% Somali (noise)

    Albanian was pretty unexpected...
    51.0% Sardinian
    29.5% Chechen (the 3rd Caucasus pop)
    13.1% Lithuanian
    3.15% Georgian
    2.4% Greek
    And some noise...
    0.7% Saharawi
    0.15% Makrani
    Interestingly, Italian_North would come out almost exactly halfway between Albanian and Basque.

    I'm thinking about trying this experiment again with the new 1240k DG samples from Reichlab 37.2 dataset, but then again, there are less populations
    Last edited by Kale; 08-16-2019 at 05:50 AM.
    Collection of 14,000 d-stats: Hidden Content Part 2: Hidden Content Part 3: Hidden Content PM me for d-stats, qpadm, qpgraph, or f3-outgroup nmonte models.

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    I don't think that using moderns is the right approach for OP's question.
    Recent ancestry: 2/4 Central Moldova (Orhei district), 1/4 Southern Moldova (Cahul district), 1/4 Northern Moldova (Briceni district)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post
    Somewhat related to the topic at hand. A while back I ran an interesting, though by no means literal or particularly informative experiment.
    Step 1) Run F3 outgroup stats to show shared drift modern populations (in HumanOrigins2068 dataset) have with key ancient references, these being...
    Barcin_N Levant_N Iran_N Kotias Taforalt MA1 Anzick_Kennewick Iron_Gates_HG EHG Yamnaya_Samara Ami Australian Ust_Ishim
    Step 2) Discover which modern populations could NOT be modeled as a mix of other moderns.
    Step 3) Model other moderns with only the populations that could not be modeled themselves.

    Bulgarians came out as...
    33.85% Greek
    33.15% Lithuanian
    22.15% Sardinian
    5.65% Saami
    5.15% Georgian
    0.05% Chukchi
    With a quite good fit.
    Most of North/West/Central Europe came out as a mix of Greek, Lithuanian, and Sardinian. The Saami & Georgian combo is a bit unique.

    Compare to Romanians...
    45.35% Lithuanian
    27.5% Greek
    17.1% Sardinian
    6.2% Balkar (there were 3 groups from the Caucasus which couldn't be modeled)
    2.7% BedouinB
    1.15% Mansi

    And Croatians...
    49.25% Lithuanian
    36.1% Greek
    13.45% Sardinian
    1.2% Somali (noise)

    Albanian was pretty unexpected...
    51.0% Sardinian
    29.5% Chechen (the 3rd Caucasus pop)
    13.1% Lithuanian
    3.15% Georgian
    2.4% Greek
    And some noise...
    0.7% Saharawi
    0.15% Makrani
    Interestingly, Italian_North would come out almost exactly halfway between Albanian and Basque.

    I'm thinking about trying this experiment again with the new 1240k DG samples from Reichlab 37.2 dataset, but then again, there are less populations
    Wow Albanians are pretty different.

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    Bulgarians have around 40% early Slavic dna.

    "sample": "Test1:Bulgarian_-_Bulgaria1",
    "fit": 2.48,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 45,
    "BGR_IA": 30,
    "GRC_Mycenaean": 25,

    "sample": "Test2:Bulgarian_-_BulgarianD6",
    "fit": 2.265,
    "BGR_IA": 47.5,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 40.83,
    "GRC_Mycenaean": 11.67,

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coldmountains View Post
    Bulgarians have around 40% early Slavic dna.

    "sample": "Test1:Bulgarian_-_Bulgaria1",
    "fit": 2.48,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 45,
    "BGR_IA": 30,
    "GRC_Mycenaean": 25,

    "sample": "Test2:Bulgarian_-_BulgarianD6",
    "fit": 2.265,
    "BGR_IA": 47.5,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 40.83,
    "GRC_Mycenaean": 11.67,
    I am not sure if GRC_Mycenaean is the right sample to model Bulgarians...
    The Bulgarian ethnogenesis happened in the Northern Balkans and the Pontic steppe, but even in the borders of modern Bulgaria up to date, there were no any Mycenaean-like samples found.
    Target: Aspar_scaled
    Distance: 1.9646% / 0.01964602 | ADC: 1x RC
    57.6 Macedonian
    42.4 Greek_Central_Macedonia

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aspar View Post
    I am not sure if GRC_Mycenaean is the right sample to model Bulgarians...
    The Bulgarian ethnogenesis happened in the Northern Balkans and the Pontic steppe, but even in the borders of modern Bulgaria up to date, there were no any Mycenaean-like samples found.
    well Bulgaria_IA can be modelled as some kind of mix between GRC_Mycenaean and Hungary_BA. Also late roman Bulgaria would probably be more southern/Greek shifted because of migrations from the mediterranean

    "sample": "Test1:BGR_IA",
    "fit": 2.7384,
    "GRC_Mycenaean": 59.17,
    "HUN_BA": 40.83,

    Adding some more reference populations i get this.

    "sample": "Test1:Bulgarian",
    "fit": 1.6074,
    "HUN_Avar_Szolad": 38.33,
    "BGR_IA": 31.67,
    "Anatolia_IA": 10,
    "GRC_Mycenaean": 10,
    "HUN_BA": 8.33,
    "Hun_Tian_Shan": 1.67,

    So there is definetly some extra Greek-like affinity which can not only be explained by BGR_IA.

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