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Thread: My first models for various South and Northwest Europeans. Any thoughts?

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    My first models for various South and Northwest Europeans. Any thoughts?

    SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE:

    I modeled various Italians, Balkan groups, and Greeks as a mixture of:

    GRC_Mycenaean -- proxy for ancient Hellenes
    Levant_ISR_Ashkelon_IA2 -- proxy for ancient Phoenicians/Canaanites
    Bell Beaker_ITA -- proxy for ancient peoples of Italy
    Berber_Tunisia_Chen -- proxy for pre-Arab North Africans
    Saudi -- proxy for original Arabian tribes
    Assyrian -- proxy for ancient Mesopotamian input
    CZE_Early_Slav -- proxy for early Slavic tribes
    Welsh -- proxy for Celtic peoples of NW Europe
    Norwegian -- proxy for Vikings and early Norman ancestors


    to try to proxy for all types of admixture present into these populations (Phoenician, Berber, Arab, Italic, Hellenic, Slavic, etc.), and I got some good fits.

    Any populations I should try that I missed?

    I have provided each model and some commentary.

    My overall observations:

    1) Mainland southern Italy, from Abruzzo south to Calabria and everything in between, has Mycenaean as their predominant ancestry, and is more Mycenaean-like than Sicily.

    2) Sicilians do not register Mycenaean as their top match, instead East Sicily gets Assyrian, and Trapani gets Italian Bell Beaker followed by a very close second in Assyrian.

    3) Trapani has the most diversity of MENA input, and is the only region with notable combined North African and Arabian, and is hardly registering Greek at all. On the other hand, mainland south Italy has almost no additional MENA.

    4) Mainland Greece and Albania are a plurality Slavic, and are more Slavic than Mycenaean.

    6) All Balkan Slavs are predominantly Slavic, though on a gradient.

    7) There is evidence to me of a strong West Asian migration to all of Southeastern Europe, highest in South Italy and Crete, that postdates Mycenaean input, but it is Mesopotamian-like ancestry that is responsible for the West Asian shift of these populations, not Levantine.

    SICILIAN WEST (TRAPANI):

    Trapani is modeled as primarily a mixture of Italy Bell Beaker and Assyrian. Using Tunisian Berbers and Saudis, about 12% seems distinctively traceable to the Arab conquest. Mycenaean is reduced to a very low 3.6%, the same amount that is registering as Saudi Arabian. Levantine does not register at all, and anything that can be decisively Norman is captured by only 3% Norwegian... instead, early Slavic is preferred for northern ancestry not captured by Bell Beaker Italians.




    SICILIAN EAST (SYRACUSE/RAGUSA):

    I call this Syracuse/Ragusa, because I may have located the origins of the Sicilian East sample in a 2015 study and it lists the location as Ragusa... I have, however, heard others report it as Syracusan.

    Sicily East also has no Levantine showing up and instead prefers Assyrian. The Mycenaean element is now coming in more strongly at 23%, and the Italian Bell Beaker is lower as is the Berber. The Slavic is lower, but instead of Norwegian we now have some Welsh showing up, about 6.8%.



    ITALIAN_APULIA:

    Apulia has a much higher Mycenaean element than Sicily, at 31%, followed by a sizable Assyrian-like element at 28%. Other MENA inputs are almost nonexistent, which is not surprising as Apulia is the least Near Eastern part of southern Italy. There is also, like East Sicily, a small amount of Celtic-like ancestry proxied by Welsh.



    ITALIAN_BASILICATA:

    Levant_Ashkelon now starts to appear, and Assyrian decreases which might mean there is overlap between the two components. Italian Bell Beaker is low, and Mycenaean is higher than in Apulia. A similar Welsh component still continues to emerge, alongside Early Slavic.




    ITALIAN_CALABRIA:

    Calabria comes out similar to Basilicata, only with higher Mycenaean, lower Northern elements, and some Berber/Arabian like Sicily.



    ITALIAN_CAMPANIA:

    Campania is similar to Calabria only with more Celtic/Slavic type admixture.



    ITALIAN_ABRUZZO:

    Similar to Campania, but with more Welsh.



    ITALIAN_MOLISE:

    Similar to Abruzzo, but with Norwegian instead of Welsh.



    ITALIAN_LAZIO:

    Lazio marks the switch from Mycenaean to Italian Bell Beaker as predominant.



    GREEK (MAINLAND):

    Unlike what some others estimated I do not get that mainlanders have more Mycenaean than Cretans, in fact the levels are close... but the predominant element is Slavic.



    GREEK_CRETE:

    Crete has higher Slavic, lower Celtic/Germanic, and no North African/Arabian (both replaced by Levant). Mycenaean and Assyrian levels are close to South Italy.



    ALBANIAN:

    Similar to mainland Greeks.



    BULGARIAN:

    Slavic predominates, followed by Assyrian.



    MACEDONIAN:

    More Mycenaean than Bulgarians, but not much difference.



    Romanian:

    Similar to the above.



    SERBIAN:

    Looks like Balkan Slavs are mostly Slavic... since even Greeks and Albanians are in the 30-40% range.



    BOSNIAN:



    CROATIAN:

    Mycenaean now drops out of the estimate.

    Last edited by Sikeliot; 09-13-2019 at 03:58 AM.

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    NORTHWESTERN EUROPE:

    IRELAND:

    I modeled Ireland as:

    Welsh -- Celtic Briton proxy
    Norwegian -- Viking proxy
    England_Saxon -- Germanic conquerors of England
    English -- modern English population
    English_Cornwall -- see above
    Basque_Spanish -- testing to see if Irish have Basque-like ancestry as rumored
    German -- other Germanic input not captured by any of the above
    French_Brittany -- NW French signal

    And I got that the Irish are predominantly matching the English. I do get an 11% Norwegian signal, but clearly the main difference to England is more Welsh/Celtic, less Germanic.



    ENGLAND:

    I modeled English as a mixture of:

    Welsh -- Celtic Briton proxy
    Norwegian -- Viking proxy
    England_Saxon -- Germanic conquerors of England
    Irish -- other Celtic ancestry not captured by the above
    German -- other Germanic input not captured by any of the above
    French_Brittany -- NW French signal
    Basque_Spanish -- testing to see if English have Basque-like ancestry as rumored

    And with a very good fit, Ireland is a better proxy than Wales, and the Anglo-Saxon input is secondary. This could be in part due to English input into Ireland, but overall it shows that the English are much closer to the Irish than to Germans, Anglo-Saxons, or Scandinavians. But unlike the Irish we DO get a Basque signal!!!



    SCOTLAND:

    Scottish are basically a less German, more Norse version of the English, and slightly more Irish-like too. But the difference to England is small.


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    WESTERN JEWS:

    Similar populations to those used for Balkans and Italy.

    Good fit, but again Assyrian comes up instead of Levantine, even the Ashkelon sample. Also, Mycenaean definitely IS NOT the predominant European source, it is Italian Bell Beaker.



    Sephardim:



    Romaniotes:

    Romaniotes do, actually, get Mycenaean here.



    Italkim:



    Syrian Jews:



    Tunisian Jews:



    Libyan Jews:



    Moroccan Jews:


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    When I use "Armenian" instead of "Assyrian" the SE Europeans favor Armenian over Levantine, and there is simply a replacement of the two components but not much difference in the percent. When I remove both Assyrian and Armenian, the Mycenaean and Levantine both increase for all of the groups and Italian Bell Beaker drops off sharply for South Italians.

    The fit decreases noticeably when I remove Assyrian/Armenian and let some of that fall into Mycenaean. So I suspect the better fit is using Assyrian/Armenian to represent post-Neolithic West Asian input, and that Mycenaean input is actually lower than people assumed when they tried modeling Southeast Europeans without Assyrian/Armenian.

    With Assyrian/Armenian included, South Italians all still get high Mycenaean except the Sicilians and Cretans and the Sicilians/Cretans have the strongest preference for actually including Assyrian/Armenian rather than excluding them.

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    I think that Ancient Greeks of the Iron Age and later Antiquity were a bit more Indo-european shifted than Myceneans(Doric invasion). If we took them as a sample I think the Slavic element would be somewhat lower. In Western Sicily for example the Slavic-like 12% indicates just some IE ancestry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xripkan View Post
    I think that Ancient Greeks of the Iron Age and later Antiquity were a bit more Indo-european shifted than Myceneans(Doric invasion). If we took them as a sample I think the Slavic element would be somewhat lower. In Western Sicily for example the Slavic-like 12% indicates just some IE ancestry.
    Agree. But keep in mind the Iberia Empuries Greek sample is still very close to Mycenaeans, so the difference might not have been substantial.

    One thing I gather from this is that in southern Italy and Crete, any Arab-era admixture is quite low to nonexistent, and there is only one exception: Trapani/"West Sicily."

    Trapani definitely seems to have a different ethnogenesis than the rest of southern Italy. They have the highest "Assyrian" of the South Italian samples, but their Mycenaean is only around 3%. So this would suggest, to me, that the "Assyrian" (really post-Neolithic West Asian) did not arrive with the Mycenaeans in southern Italy or Crete, and is due to other migrations. They are also the only region with significant Berber and Arabian, which is likely Arab-era admixture, together around 13%. I suspect a lot of their Italian Bell Beaker, is due to the repopulation of the region by mainland Italians after the Norman era, but actual Norman admixture is low (probably in that 3% Norwegian). So Trapani comes out as a mixture of people from much further north in Italy, and people from West Asia, North Africa, and to a very small extent, Arabia.

    The rest of South Italy as well as the Cretans are much more Mycenaean, and the Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Apulia, Calabria, and Basilicata models all look really similar, nearly identical. As you move north in southern Italy you also end up with some Celtic-like admixture best proxied by the Welsh.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xripkan View Post
    I think that Ancient Greeks of the Iron Age and later Antiquity were a bit more Indo-european shifted than Myceneans(Doric invasion). If we took them as a sample I think the Slavic element would be somewhat lower. In Western Sicily for example the Slavic-like 12% indicates just some IE ancestry.
    Here is Malta and Cyprus. I expected Malta to be more like Sicily West, but it's different.. much more Mycenaean, much less Italian Bell Beaker, slightly more North African/Arabian, and slightly less Assyrian.

    They also get some of the Welsh component, and less Slavic.



    Cyprus too prefers Assyrian as opposed to Levantine.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sikeliot View Post
    Agree. But keep in mind the Iberia Empuries Greek sample is still very close to Mycenaeans, so the difference might not have been substantial.

    One thing I gather from this is that in southern Italy and Crete, any Arab-era admixture is quite low to nonexistent, and there is only one exception: Trapani/"West Sicily."

    Trapani definitely seems to have a different ethnogenesis than the rest of southern Italy. They have the highest "Assyrian" of the South Italian samples, but their Mycenaean is only around 3%. So this would suggest, to me, that the "Assyrian" (really post-Neolithic West Asian) did not arrive with the Mycenaeans in southern Italy or Crete, and is due to other migrations. They are also the only region with significant Berber and Arabian, which is likely Arab-era admixture, together around 13%. I suspect a lot of their Italian Bell Beaker, is due to the repopulation of the region by mainland Italians after the Norman era, but actual Norman admixture is low (probably in that 3% Norwegian). So Trapani comes out as a mixture of people from much further north in Italy, and people from West Asia, North Africa, and to a very small extent, Arabia.

    The rest of South Italy as well as the Cretans are much more Mycenaean, and the Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Apulia, Calabria, and Basilicata models all look really similar, nearly identical. As you move north in southern Italy you also end up with some Celtic-like admixture best proxied by the Welsh.
    Yes, that is what Agamemnon's PCA indicated as well, which is probably a sign you are on the right track, at least in consistency between runs. I don't know nearly enough about this to say if it the correct way to model, or not, but I appreciate the work. Hopefully you will get some other posters to offer advice or suggestions. For instance, I am interested in why your model and Michalis' are so different.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    Yes, that is what Agamemnon's PCA indicated as well, which is probably a sign you are on the right track, at least in consistency between runs. I don't know nearly enough about this to say if it the correct way to model, or not, but I appreciate the work. Hopefully you will get some other posters to offer advice or suggestions. For instance, I am interested in why your model and Michalis' are so different.
    I think this is pretty well established and we see that all of them have a substantially Hellenic base.

    What do you make about West Sicily being so different? Do you agree that it looks like it does because of a combination of A) low Greek input and B ) North-Central Italian input superimposed on top of various layers of MENA input?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sikeliot View Post
    I think this is pretty well established and we see that all of them have a substantially Hellenic base.

    What do you make about West Sicily being so different? Do you agree that it looks like it does because of a combination of A) low Greek input and B ) North-Central Italian input superimposed on top of various layers of MENA input?
    Well, West Sicily was controlled by Carthage, Greeks controlled the east. Certainly you have a great deal of population movement since then, but when you look at the higher North Africa in the west, the higher Greek in the east, and high Italic overall, that would be the simplest conclusion to draw based on your model.

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