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Thread: Continuum Population Modeling using Vahaduo - My first attempt :)

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    Thanks for the comments and suggestions. I will work with those other samples you suggested and see what I come up with. I discovered the need for the Baltic sample in experimenting with my own kit, I was wondering what other options were out there.
    Ok, here are some models for South Balkan populations. You were absolutely correct that differentiating the Slavic component into various other groups greatly increases fit. That said, I don't really know much about many of these populations, so I can't say if they are truly ancestral, or perhaps just better proxies for the various Slavic and other groups they likely mixed with as they moved south into Greece. I will say following the general 40% Ancient Greek/30% Levant/30% Slavic rule that seems pretty iron-clad for my own sample, the model is at least in the ball park. Thoughts?


  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    Ok, here are some models for South Balkan populations. You were absolutely correct that differentiating the Slavic component into various other groups greatly increases fit. That said, I don't really know much about many of these populations, so I can't say if they are truly ancestral, or perhaps just better proxies for the various Slavic and other groups they likely mixed with as they moved south into Greece. I will say following the general 40% Ancient Greek/30% Levant/30% Slavic rule that seems pretty iron-clad for my own sample, the model is at least in the ball park. Thoughts?
    The only way you would have Slavic ancestry is through migration from the mainland to the islands. Do you believe the Aegean islands have been settled, in the last 1000 years, from the mainland in a significant way?

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  4. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sikeliot View Post
    The only way you would have Slavic ancestry is through migration from the mainland to the islands. Do you believe the Aegean islands have been settled, in the last 1000 years, from the mainland in a significant way?
    Yes, you have asked me the question I love to talk about!

    Fourni was abandoned because of pirates and was home to goats and only a few shepherd boys until at least 1838. These two primary source travel journals describe the state of the island (they are great reads for anyone interested in the Aegean Islands and Asia Minor during the time in question too.)

    This one is from 1814, and was written by Edward Clarke. Fourni is mentioned on pg. 118 and 119. This traveler did not stop there, only commented that his crew was greatly afraid because of the pirates that lurk in the harbors.


    https://books.google.com/books/about...=samos&f=false


    1838 book - The ship the author chartered stopped in Fourni, pg. 155, and found a few boys herding goats and feared pirates were around every corner.


    https://books.google.com/books?id=vO...icaria&f=false

    Because the island was resettled less than 200 years ago, there is still oral history that describes the founders. My family has preserved many of these stories on both continents. Long story short, the oral history told by islanders describe 12 families resettling the island - Condula (Kondila), Sklavos, Skordu, Achladis, Galanos, Tsourakis, Markakis, Amorianos (Amorganos,) Orphanos, Flitzanis, Grammatikos, and Spanos.

    Where were they from? Well, using DNA genealogy, specifically Auto-clusters, I can say for sure that Ikaria, Samos, and Kalymnos are confirmed for my family (I know for sure 5 of those 12 families are my direct ancestors, I know at least one relative from all but one surname.) As for the mainland? One of the families (the cousin who took the Y-test, and the surname of the first male in my family to come to America) was said to be from the Peloponnese. I have not been able to find mainland cousin matches with enough cMs and family trees to make many conclusions. My cousin did have his Y-test come back I-Y18331. His closest match (identical........but who to date has only tested to 12 markers) is from the Peloponnese, as are the other members of the I-Y18331.

    My soft conclusion for now is that the idea we have North African or Genoese/Venetian Italian ancestry looks very unlikely based on what I have uncovered. Mainland Greek looks much more likely based on G25 results, the family stories, the Y-group of my cousin, and the K15 PCA. How much? How many relatives? What percent? Those questions are likely impossible to answer. You've got a founder effect on Fourni that derives in part from two large founder effects (Ikaria and Kalymnos) so you end up in the wash once you reach about 3rd cousin level connections.

    I have attached my Autocluster report to show you what I mean. The huge Red Square are all Ikarians. The Orange Square is Kalymnos. The Yellow Square is Fourni (a few mistaken Kalymniotes are placed there too.) You will see these are tight clusters, cousin to one, cousin to all, for each island. You will allows see in the gray blocks, that Ikaria and Kalymnos don't have many shared cousin connections. Look at Fourni. The people from there are connected to both Ikaria and Kalymnos. Keep in mind my closest relatives by cM are mostly in the Fourni cluster, then Ikaria, then Kalymnos. That said, many of those Fourniotes are very admixed at this point, 1/4 to 1/8 heritage from the island, but the ones that connect to nearly every sample (like I do, or they wouldn't be in my autocluster) are 100% from Fourni.

    Last edited by Greekscholar; 09-27-2019 at 05:29 PM.

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  6. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    Yes, you have asked me the question I love to talk about!

    Fourni was abandoned because of pirates and was home to goats and only a few shepherd boys until at least 1838. These two primary source travel journals describe the state of the island (they are great reads for anyone interested in the Aegean Islands and Asia Minor during the time in question too.)
    The genetic diversity of the Aegean islands, even people on the same island plotting very differently implies to me that the Aegean islands are far from being "isolated" or "preserved" and there has likely been a lot of migration in the last 500 years between the islands, from the mainland to the islands, and from Anatolia or even Cyprus. I do tend to believe the "native" islanders should be closest to Sicilians or Cretans but you have a lot of ways you can mix people that they plot like this... half Peloponnese and half Cypriot would come out that way.

    What I notice among the Dodecanese for instance, is that the smaller islands tend to be more "South Italian" like while people from some of the larger islands like Rhodes have more diversity.

    Here is someone from the island of Leros I just got... I have never seen a result from there so this was interesting. Very close to the Aegean islands (Cyclades less so), Calabria, Campania, and to some extent Sicily and Cyprus.


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  8. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sikeliot View Post
    The genetic diversity of the Aegean islands, even people on the same island plotting very differently implies to me that the Aegean islands are far from being "isolated" or "preserved" and there has likely been a lot of migration in the last 500 years between the islands, from the mainland to the islands, and from Anatolia or even Cyprus. I do tend to believe the "native" islanders should be closest to Sicilians or Cretans but you have a lot of ways you can mix people that they plot like this... half Peloponnese and half Cypriot would come out that way.

    What I notice among the Dodecanese for instance, is that the smaller islands tend to be more "South Italian" like while people from some of the larger islands like Rhodes have more diversity.

    Here is someone from the island of Leros I just got... I have never seen a result from there so this was interesting. Very close to the Aegean islands (Cyclades less so), Calabria, Campania, and to some extent Sicily and Cyprus.

    There may be a few islands, or parts of islands (think Ikaria and parts of Crete) that were largely spared from depopulation/repopulation events. Small islands nearly had to have been subject to these forces, and for the NE Aegean islands, Samos, Mytilene, Fourni, Chios, to name a few, it is an easily researched historical fact. That said, even a high Slavic islander like myself clearly clusters in the Continuum populations, and I have never found an Island Greek who did not. So, while mainland input seems certain at some level, I can't say I have ever seen it actually shift a person out the Continuum range.

    I hate to keep saying this, but we just need more samples, especially G25, for different islands. I was really impressed that it was able to differentiate between Southern Italian/Island Greek populations using Slavic vs. Bell Beaker and Guanche samples. I still feel there are Greeks that will have some traces of more recent Italian ancestry (the Crete reference sample is not nearly as firm in its rejection of Bell Beaker as mine is) but until we can break down individuals or (not holding my breathe) academic samples from different islands, it is really hard to say much more.

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  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    There may be a few islands, or parts of islands (think Ikaria and parts of Crete) that were largely spared from depopulation/repopulation events. Small islands nearly had to have been subject to these forces, and for the NE Aegean islands, Samos, Mytilene, Fourni, Chios, to name a few, it is an easily researched historical fact. That said, even a high Slavic islander like myself clearly clusters in the Continuum populations, and I have never found an Island Greek who did not. So, while mainland input seems certain at some level, I can't say I have ever seen it actually shift a person out the Continuum range.

    I hate to keep saying this, but we just need more samples, especially G25, for different islands. I was really impressed that it was able to differentiate between Southern Italian/Island Greek populations using Slavic vs. Bell Beaker and Guanche samples. I still feel there are Greeks that will have some traces of more recent Italian ancestry (the Crete reference sample is not nearly as firm in its rejection of Bell Beaker as mine is) but until we can break down individuals or (not holding my breathe) academic samples from different islands, it is really hard to say much more.

    I have never seen a Lesbos or Lemnos Greek on GEDmatch but from what I see on 23andme, they should be the most 'mainland' like of the Aegean islanders apart from, possibly, some people in the Cyclades.

    Based on what I see so far, I'd say Ikaria seems the most South Italian-like overall in a homogenous sense in that I have never seen someone from there who deviates far from the average.

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  12. #37
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    Here is an interesting Eurogenes K36. She is from Terrasini, Palermo province, Sicily right near the border with Trapani (this is an area with low Greek input historically).

    She seems further than average from the South Italian and Aegean averages, but she matches higher than average with Levantines (as much as does the person from Leros). There seem to be many factors influencing membership in the Eastern Mediterranean cluster.


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    What is interesting is I have some Cretan results who are more mainland shifted than that average. Here are the results in Eurogenes K36 for one of them. Let me know if you'd like to see other calculators.

    They look at first glance equidistant but when you see they are as close to Bulgaria as to the Crete average or Sicily, that tells you they are mainland shifted. They are from Chania.


  15. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    Whoops. I think ITA_Collegno_MA is "Middle Ages" not "Metal Age." I swapped it out for Bell_Beaker_ITA. Fit improves, but Greek sources crash hard for non-Greek target populations, seemingly replaced by ARM_LBA. This is probably wrong, isn't it?


    My results

    Distance 0.02475555

    ARM_LBA 6.2
    Bell_Beaker_ITA 0
    CZE_Early_Slav 35.4
    Canary_Islands_Guanche 0
    GRC_Mycenaean 19.6
    Iberia_Northeast_Empuries2 27.2
    Levant_Canaanite_MBA 11.6

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    My results based on Dorkymon's model

    Distance 0.02066849

    BGR_IA 0
    Baltic_EST_MA 9.8
    DEU_MA_o_STR300 34.2
    DEU_MA _AED106 0
    HUN_Avar_Szolad 0
    Han_NChina 1.2
    ITA_Collegno_MA_o1 15.8
    Scythian_MDA 28.8
    UKR_Chernyakhiv_Shyshaky 0
    UKR_Cimmerian 10.2

    or

    North Balkan Iron Age-Medieval 39
    South Balkan+Aegean Medieval 50
    Slavic Migration Period-Medieval 9.8
    SlavicThracic Mix Migration Period 0
    Mongols 1.2

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