A theory about the origin of E-V13

[Riverman]

Personally I doubt that these E-V13 samples were themselves Thracians given what (little) we know of their autosomal profiles, I also do not think that there is any real reason to make a necessary connection between them and the R1a-Z93 samples, particularly considering the fact that they cluster completely differently - as far as I am aware - and thus likely came from very different ethno-cultural contexts.

These two plot the closest together and we see the combination of Cimmerian and Scythian steppe groups with Thracians, just like expected, because we knew from archaeology and history, that these people often fought and later mixed with each other. Like Thraco-Cimmerians (Mezocsat), Vekerzug (additional Scythian influence), Geto-Scythians etc. Remember the early Sarmatian E-V13? Or the R-Z93 from the Thracians? The primary influence the Thracians received, from the paternal side, was from the these steppe groups (Noua-Sabatinovka-Coslogeni, Cimmerians, Scythians, Sarmatians). Here we find them together as mercenary unit with the same Eastern (Caucasian) profile. Hardly a coincidence.

[Kelmendasi]

These two plot the closest together and we see the combination of Cimmerian and Scythian steppe groups with Thracians, just like expected, because we knew from archaeology and history, that these people often fought and later mixed with each other. Like Thraco-Cimmerians (Mezocsat), Vekerzug (additional Scythian influence), Geto-Scythians etc. Remember the early Sarmatian E-V13? Or the R-Z93 from the Thracians? The primary influence the Thracians received, from the paternal side, was from the these steppe groups (Noua-Sabatinovka-Coslogeni, Cimmerians, Scythians, Sarmatians). Here we find them together as mercenary unit with the same Eastern (Caucasian) profile. Hardly a coincidence.

Sure, the two relevant E-V13 samples plot close to each other, but they do not seem to plot anywhere near the R1a-Z93 samples which would be expected if they did indeed arrive from the same mixed Thraco-Cimmerian or Scythian-influenced group. What is stopping the R1a-Z93 samples from simply being Scythians unrelated to the Thracians? Also the Caucasian-like E-V13 sample is very low coverage so it should not really be discussed together with the other samples which have far better coverage. It is a lot more speculative.

Anyhow, if these samples do turn out to be Thracian-like or Thracian-derived then I will admit that I was wrong. However, I am not sure that this will be the case.

[Riverman]

Sure, the two relevant E-V13 samples plot close to each other, but they do not seem to plot anywhere near the R1a-Z93 samples which would be expected if they did indeed arrive from the same mixed Thraco-Cimmerian or Scythian-influenced group. What is stopping the R1a-Z93 samples from simply being Scythians unrelated to the Thracians? Also the Caucasian-like E-V13 sample is very low coverage so it should not really be discussed together with the other samples which have far better coverage. It is a lot more speculative.

Anyhow, if these samples do turn out to be Thracian-like or Thracian-derived then I will admit that I was wrong. However, I am not sure that this will be the case.

I'm not sure either for the 2 Central European-North Balkan samples, because at that time they could have come from many regions and the Proto-Thracian period was gone for 700 years. But then again, even if the third is low coverage, its the second time we get a Z-93 + E-V13 combination with a very similar autosomal profile and with the other steppe and Eastern European samples, it really looks like Thraco-Cimmerians/Scythians were involved. We will see how much steppe and East Asian the Caucasian shifted R-Z93 will have. Whether he fits into the wider range of Thraco-Cimmerian samples plus Caucasus.

[Bane]

The Sicily results are very interesting for me.
I'm Y130245+ and this clade is present in modern day Sicily also. Estimated TMRCA is around 2600 old. Timeframe almost matches the one from the study.
I've always believed E-Y130245 entered Sicily by crossing the sea from the Balkans (from Albania or its vicinity). Where, in case of my cousin clade, the Balkans was just a transitory route from further North. This study hasn't convinced me into a possible different route (yet).

[Riverman]

The Sicily results are very interesting for me.
I'm Y130245+ and this clade is present in modern day Sicily also. Estimated TMRCA is around 2600 old. Timeframe almost matches the one from the study.
I've always believed E-Y130245 entered Sicily by crossing the sea from the Balkans (from Albania or its vicinity). Where, in case of my cousin clade, the Balkans was just a transitory route from further North. This study hasn't convinced me into a possible different route (yet).

I really want to get some Ligurians and Veneti sampled, if talking about Italy. East Hallstatt anyway (Frög, Kalenderberg group), but these cremated. The results from the modern Sardinians are really intrigueing, such a high degree of diversity which spread potentially in the Iron Age.

There are two Sardinians under E-A11837 by the way:
https://discover.familytreedna.com/y-dna/E-Y130245/tree

And those Sardinian E-V13 likely came from Liguria/Genua, I know there are related samples to those from Sardinia from the region of Genua as well, but most didn't test for the BigY. The question is therefore just when they came to the Ligurian/Genuese region. Again, no recent overlap with the Balkans! The split between the Serbian and the Italian-Sardinian branches dates to the Early Iron Age, about Hallstatt time frame and before/around the time of these Himera samples.

[Bane]

Looks like the Greek Dark Ages are quite darker than the Medieval Dark Ages.

[Aspar]

How do you interpret the apparent lack of E-V13 in the Bronze Age Balkans? Do you think it's at least feasible that E-V13 spread to Thrace from outside around the 1700 BCE peak in growth that we identified? Or do you think it spread within Thrace from a smaller region?

Also how do you interpret the basal lineages found in Western and Central Europe that have not (yet?) been found in the Balkans?

The Balkans are one of the most undertested regions in terms of BA.
What we really lack is local MBA and LBA samples because these would be relevant for V13 history and we don't have many if at all.
What we need is a wide scale study with at least a hundred samples alike the one expected for Pannonia study.

It's been said already, modern diversity is misleading.
Once again, take for example Italians.
They sit on almost every V13 branch and yet, after such a great sampling we don't have any V13 among Etruscans, Italics and now among the natives of the Sicani culture. Neither from the Greek colonisers of South Italy.
These oldest V13 people from Italy are very clearly foreigners, mercenaries from the Balkans very likely.

So, is the diversity in Italy which stretches all the way to the EBA without Balkan brotherly branches is the result of some EBA migrations in Italy or later migrations?

The answer is very clear!

And it's not like there isn't any diversity in the Balkans. Literally BY3880 is filled with Balkan samples from the top to the bottom.

As for its EBA origin, I believe it was either in the Balkans or just north of the Lower Danube, somewhere around the south Carpathians.

And what about R-Z2103?

Looking at the tree can you say with certainty that it's diversity among the modern people points to an origin in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe?
I can't.
Looking at the tree I would say it's very diverse in the Middle East, even more so than Western Europe.
And yet, the Indo-European languages are in Europe, not in the Middle East except a few.

[Aspar]

I'm not sure either for the 2 Central European-North Balkan samples, because at that time they could have come from many regions and the Proto-Thracian period was gone for 700 years.

Riverman, again, these samples aren't described as intermediate
betwen Central European and North Balkans but between Central European and Aegean BA.
That's a big difference because such a description fits neatly with the IA samples from Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Dalmatia.
Let's be precise here...

[rafc]

I took a look at the BAM's for the two well covered samples, the calls seem correct. The BAM for the low coverage one is extremely small. Not sure how they get to V13 based on that low coverage.

[xz1333]

I know this is off topic but according to that same rrenjet project R1b is like 24% in Kosovo , and reaches like 47% in Prizren, for Prizren it's based on like 50 samples or so I don't remember but still overall percentage for Kosovo is quite high based on 200+ samples. I am not part of that project or any project btw. Same similar thing that other project showed R1b and J2b2 as some of the most common Y-DNA. Gashi. Thaqi, Krasniqi etc show quite diversity and have tested for all kinds of Y-DNA, making the results more interesting.