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Thread: When would a 65 marker match have diverged?

  1. #1
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    When would a 65 marker match have diverged?

    I had been told by others that my 65 marker match diverged in the 1700's/1800's. This man, though, has just gotten back to me to tell me that his family has been living 20 miles away from mine since the 1700's and is Catholic. My branch is Presbyterian.

    He does not mention having links to the area where my family lived. So I think that this divergence was prior to the 1700's?

    I must admit to being surprised at his line being Catholic right back to the 1700's, as I wouldn't have thought a conversion from Presbyterian to Catholic would be that good of a thing to do in the 1700's in Northern Ireland.

    Or is it possible that his line did not convert and came over from Scotland as Catholics? Does that then mean that my line converted?

  2. #2
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    TMRCA 65 of 67 Marker Y-DNA STR Match

    FTDNA shows a 50% likelihood of MRCA within 6 generations for a 65 of 67 marker match and a 90% likelihood of MRCA within 12 generations. https://www.familytreedna.com/faq-markers.aspx

  3. #3
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    So an upgrade then?

  4. #4
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    Probably a change of church due to marriage sometime in the past. Same surname as you? And the surname is Scottish? Could be the same or a separate migration. Upgrades would only help with other results to compare them to. Any other matches to you two? Decision to upgrade would depend on your objectives.

  5. #5
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    No his surname is not the same. What do you mean a separate migration? He and others reckon 1700ís but I have a closer match to a man in NC so it must be prior to that.

  6. #6
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    Separate migration from Scotland to Ireland. Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor estimates using STR mismatches are not tight estimates. Mutations occur at random. The estimates are made using statistical averages. This is also true with SNP mutations found through tests such as Big Y. However, with enough test results for enough members of a family, you can determine what generations an STR mutation occurred in based on how far back in the family tree it is shared. The same thing can be done more reliably with SNP mutations that can be found through tests such as Big Y. But you need a good family tree to start with for this to work.

  7. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to morrisondna For This Useful Post:

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  8. #7
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    As said, the TMRCA can vary a lot with STRs. My dad has two 65/67 matches. One shares a common ancestor with me from around the 1700s while the other is from around the 1200s. Some of my matches who I share an ancestor from around the 1500s are 61/67 matches. This was determined through the Big Y and pedigrees. The Big Y would be a much more reliable indicator than STRs. One of my matches is an exact match with someone at Y-67 but their ancestor is from around the 1200s.
    Ancestry: Ireland (Paper trail ≅ 81.25% Roscommon, 12.5% Galway, 6.25% Mayo)
    Y-DNA (P) ancestor (Y): Kelly b. c1830 in Co. Roscommon (UŪ Maine)
    mtDNA (P) ancestor: Fleming b. c1831 in Co. Roscommon
    mtDNA (M) ancestor: McDermott b. c1814 in Co. Roscommon
    mtDNA Great grandfather: Connella b. c1798 in Co. Roscommon (T2a1a8)
    Y-DNA 2x great grandfather: Higgins b. c1816 in Co. Roscommon (R-DF109)
    Y-DNA 3x great grandfather: Fleming b. c1829 in Co. Roscommon (R-Z23534)

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  10. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by morrisondna View Post
    Separate migration from Scotland to Ireland. Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor estimates using STR mismatches are not tight estimates. Mutations occur at random. The estimates are made using statistical averages. This is also true with SNP mutations found through tests such as Big Y. However, with enough test results for enough members of a family, you can determine what generations an STR mutation occurred in based on how far back in the family tree it is shared. The same thing can be done more reliably with SNP mutations that can be found through tests such as Big Y. But you need a good family tree to start with for this to work.
    Agreed. STR is only useful to a certain point, beyond that point in-depth SNP testing is much more useful.

    Quote Originally Posted by FionnSneachta View Post
    As said, the TMRCA can vary a lot with STRs. My dad has two 65/67 matches. One shares a common ancestor with me from around the 1700s while the other is from around the 1200s. Some of my matches who I share an ancestor from around the 1500s are 61/67 matches. This was determined through the Big Y and pedigrees. The Big Y would be a much more reliable indicator than STRs. One of my matches is an exact match with someone at Y-67 but their ancestor is from around the 1200s.
    Yeah, I have a few similar matches who are within a certain range with 37 and 67 markers and they all fall-off at 111 markers (except for my known relatives), and through Big Y my last common ancestor estimation with some of my 67 marker matches is roughly 1800 years ago. Big Y definitely helped and stopped me from pursuing something that would have been a large waste of my time.

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  12. #9
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    Thatís a surprise Spru. I have people on a forum adamant that my 65 marker match is within the last 300 years.

    They were irritated when I disagreed with them but it does seem too close to me given the surname difference, religious difference and location difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nqp15hhu View Post
    That’s a surprise Spru. I have people on a forum adamant that my 65 marker match is within the last 300 years.

    They were irritated when I disagreed with them but it does seem too close to me given the surname difference, religious difference and location difference.
    The thing is that it could still very well be a match within a genealogical timeframe for you, the only way to really figure that out is through Big Y or some other similar testing. Especially considering your haplogroup, I'm sure there could be a fair chance of simply haplotype convergence if it isn't a match that holds strong with Big Y or some other NGS testing.

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