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Thread: A mystery about P312's early history

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    A mystery about P312's early history

    Riddle me this. P312 so far is closely linked to bell beaker. It has three major subclades which are again all linked to geographical subsets of bell beaker. However, many people seem to prefer the idea that the TMRCA for P312 is quite a lot older than the yFull one of 2500BC. Some suggest 3000BC or even older. How can this be when P312 bell beaker doesnt seem to have existed before 2550BC at the earliest?

    For all the P312 subclades to be associated with one culture - bell beaker - 500 years or more after their TMRCA - requires for them all to have stayed together in one 'tribe' for 5 centuries. So either Yfull is close to the truth of the TMRCA date or the early history of P312 is a lot different from its history of rapid expansion once it became associated with bell beaker. In the latter case it would mean a small group existed that were not expansive, perhaps barely reproducing themselves for centuries so that just before they finally were about to expand, they consisted of a still small group of descendants of a P312 ancestor 500 years earlier. In other words a still-together group of people whose TMRCA was a long long time earlier, consisting of a mix of U152, DF27, L21.

    The alternative is that yfull is approximately right and their ancestor does date to around 2500BC.

    Thoughts?

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    All clades start with a single individual who has the mutation (in this case P312). The earliest generations happen fairly slowly, and the growth is exponential. I don't have the expertise to say with any confidence how much time would elapse between the origin of the mutation and when it becomes large enough to spread out across areas.
    Gedmatch DNA: M032736 Gedcom: 6613110.
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    It may be significant that that the other less numerous P312 subclades (DF19, L238, DF19, ZZ37 and a few other so far fairly rare ones) have not been found in Bell Beaker yet. There are a number of possibilities why this is the case: 1) they probably were rarer than the larger three even in the Bronze Age, so they may just not have been found yet, 2) they, or at least some of them, may have been concentrated in the northeast Beaker area which hasn't been sampled yet, or 3) they never became part of the Beaker culture. If the latter possibility is the case, it might well explain why these other subclades did not expand at the same rate as L21, DF27 and U152.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Thoughts?
    Thoughts, indeed.

    2501 BC : Only a small P312 bridgehead around Oostwoud, Netherlands.
    2499 BC : P312 is all over western and Central Europe.
    Just joking, of course. But beyond the caricature, what strikes me is the extremely quick expansion of P312 as of 2500BC.
    Suddenly, "out of nowhere", they are all over the place, from Ireland to Poland, from Scotland to Spain. Opening their way into territories which were far from empty at the time. The Megalithic people around Stonehenge were numerous and socially structured. The Corded Ware people in Central Europe, who had by then been growing and multiplying there for four centuries, can't have been peacelike doves either. Superseding such populations, and doing it in a few decades, must have taken not only warlike virtues, but also numbers. So... P312, a recently emerged haplogroup in a remote corner of CW territory? I, for one, very much doubt it.

    Of course, they are indeed autosomally CW-like. But... different ceramics, different haplos, and, as far as I recall, slightly different burial practices. Plus, more significantly, no friendly feeling toward, nor peaceful mixing with, their steppe-derived CW neighbors. Plus, again, a centum language - when evidence points toward CW being (early) satem (as are all the subsequent cultures, all the way down to India).

    If indeed, P312 dates from 2500 BC, it must have taken each male a vast number of wives, and a fairly active sex life, to produce enough sons to conquer so much so fast.





    Of course, the screenshots above should not be considered too naively. They don't give exact dates, only date brackets. But still... it was a quick expansion, more like Migration Period raids than like the Neolithic Farmer spread.
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    Distance: 1.959% : 50.8 Irish , 49.2 Italian Tuscany ......... Distance: 2.189% : 50.8 Dutch , 49.2 Basque French

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenHind View Post
    It may be significant that that the other less numerous P312 subclades (DF19, L238, DF19, ZZ37 and a few other so far fairly rare ones) have not been found in Bell Beaker yet. There are a number of possibilities why this is the case: 1) they probably were rarer than the larger three even in the Bronze Age, so they may just not have been found yet, 2) they, or at least some of them, may have been concentrated in the northeast Beaker area which hasn't been sampled yet, or 3) they never became part of the Beaker culture. If the latter possibility is the case, it might well explain why these other subclades did not expand at the same rate as L21, DF27 and U152.
    Think the last is extremely likely to be the answer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Andour View Post
    Thoughts, indeed.

    2501 BC : Only a small P312 bridgehead around Oostwoud, Netherlands.
    2499 BC : P312 is all over western and Central Europe.
    Just joking, of course. But beyond the caricature, what strikes me is the extremely quick expansion of P312 as of 2500BC.
    Suddenly, "out of nowhere", they are all over the place, from Ireland to Poland, from Scotland to Spain. Opening their way into territories which were far from empty at the time. The Megalithic people around Stonehenge were numerous and socially structured. The Corded Ware people in Central Europe, who had by then been growing and multiplying there for four centuries, can't have been peacelike doves either. Superseding such populations, and doing it in a few decades, must have taken not only warlike virtues, but also numbers. So... P312, a recently emerged haplogroup in a remote corner of CW territory? I, for one, very much doubt it.

    Of course, they are indeed autosomally CW-like. But... different ceramics, different haplos, and, as far as I recall, slightly different burial practices. Plus, more significantly, no friendly feeling toward, nor peaceful mixing with, their steppe-derived CW neighbors. Plus, again, a centum language - when evidence points toward CW being (early) satem (as are all the subsequent cultures, all the way down to India).

    If indeed, P312 dates from 2500 BC, it must have taken each male a vast number of wives, and a fairly active sex life, to produce enough sons to conquer so much so fast.





    Of course, the screenshots above should not be considered too naively. They don't give exact dates, only date brackets. But still... it was a quick expansion, more like Migration Period raids than like the Neolithic Farmer spread.
    When you put it that way it is absurd to have the TMRCA of all P312 at 2500BC bur within a couple of generation its all over Europe in beaker burials, already in geographically distinct subclades. So, yes its lunancy to think P312 TMRCA was actually 2500BC. A TMRCA date a few centuries earlier makes a great deal more sense. Then you could have P312's descendants forming a powerful group who still had some sort of unity though divided mostly into a three major clans. For all three of the major divisions of the P312 lineage to be associated very closely with beaker does suggest that those descendants of P312 at the point of developing the link with beaker culture must have somehow remained very closely connected despite the real MRCA date surely being a few centuries earlier. Up to that point they must have remained a somehow unified group in terms of geography and identity. Personally I am looking to Corded Ware in parts of Poland and adjacent from c. 2900BC as possibly being where P312 lived before steppe beaker existed and this gave them time to form the three big clans prior to the development of the P312-beaker culture. The only alternitive is they were a single group who had previously had weak growth over a few centuries and so were a mixture of all three of the big P312 clades before expanding in the beaker phasa.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    When you put it that way it is absurd to have the TMRCA of all P312 at 2500BC bur within a couple of generation its all over Europe in beaker burials, already in geographically distinct subclades. So, yes its lunancy to think P312 TMRCA was actually 2500BC. A TMRCA date a few centuries earlier makes a great deal more sense. Then you could have P312's descendants forming a powerful group who still had some sort of unity though divided mostly into a three major clans. For all three of the major divisions of the P312 lineage to be associated very closely with beaker does suggest that those descendants of P312 at the point of developing the link with beaker culture must have somehow remained very closely connected despite the real MRCA date surely being a few centuries earlier. Up to that point they must have remained a somehow unified group in terms of geography and identity. Personally I am looking to Corded Ware in parts of Poland and adjacent from c. 2900BC as possibly being where P312 lived before steppe beaker existed and this gave them time to form the three big clans prior to the development of the P312-beaker culture. The only alternitive is they were a single group who had previously had weak growth over a few centuries and so were a mixture of all three of the big P312 clades before expanding in the beaker phasa.
    Yes... And not only that : I guess if you want to get the full picture, you have to factor in what became of P312's brother clade U106. They don't seem to show up among NDL Beakers, but they eventually emerge further east on the map. Were they part of the same migration - stragglers, somehow? Did they move in independently? I hope the coronavirus lets me live long enough to know where those people came from, and what route they followed.

    (Anyway, thanks, Alan! We are all aware we have gone through all this before, but given the current shortage of new publications, and the ongoing obsession with the virus, it's the right time to revive this nagging question)

    I know the Generalissimo has his own views on this question, based on more solid data than my amateurish intuitions. I hope he'll grant us two minutes of his time to tell us how he feels about it.
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    Distance: 1.659% : 50.2 Scottish , 49.8 French Corsica...... Distance: 1.714% : 50.8 Italian Lombardy , 49.2 French Brittany
    Distance: 1.959% : 50.8 Irish , 49.2 Italian Tuscany ......... Distance: 2.189% : 50.8 Dutch , 49.2 Basque French

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    Well, I'm aware of at least one early CWC sample with P312. Hopefully it's published soon along with other useful data so that there's something to discuss finally.

    There also might be some old P312 or at least L51 near the western edge of the Black Sea. That seems like an area with a lot of the relevant action. But we just have to wait.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Andour View Post
    Yes... And not only that : I guess if you want to get the full picture, you have to factor in what became of P312's brother clade U106. They don't seem to show up among NDL Beakers, but they eventually emerge further east on the map. Were they part of the same migration - stragglers, somehow? Did they move in independently? I hope the coronavirus lets me live long enough to know where those people came from, and what route they followed.

    (Anyway, thanks, Alan! We are all aware we have gone through all this before, but given the current shortage of new publications, and the ongoing obsession with the virus, it's the right time to revive this nagging question)

    I know the Generalissimo has his own views on this question, based on more solid data than my amateurish intuitions. I hope he'll grant us two minutes of his time to tell us how he feels about it.
    Well, they haven't found any DF19 anywhere, either. So it's at least possible that if P312 is pre-beaker, the P312 subclades may have already split up; with DF19 and other smaller subclades like L238 staying closer to Uncle U106 (wherever they went off to).
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>BY44243

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Thomas Gunn (DF19) b1605; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Think the last is extremely likely to be the answer.
    Personally I am inclined toward the second possibility- that the less numerous P312 subclades were concentrated in the northeastern Beaker settlements which haven't as yet been sampled. I also think it is likely that they did not participate to any large degree in the Beaker expansion to the west and south, as that appears to have been primarily (and perhaps exclusively?) composed of L21, U152 and DF27.

    However I don't think any of the three can be ruled out at this point. Nor would I be surprised if all three possibilities were true to at least some extent.
    Last edited by GoldenHind; 03-15-2020 at 05:53 PM.

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