Uralic homeland and genetics and their implications for PIE

[Coldmountains]

There is no subclade of any haplogroup found in all Uralic peoples. The same seems to be the case with Indo-European, too. Therefore the next step is to reconstruct a step-by-step model for the dispersals of these language families. In every step there can be a change in the genetic composition of the carriers of the language.


And you have evidence for this?


Neither do they match those language groups you named: for example M458 is much wider than Balto-Slavic.

Z93 was present within Fatyanovo Culture in the area from where Proto-Uralic was later spread from. Therefore it is very well possible that Z93 was already present within the Proto-Uralic-speaking population. Lineages can be inherited even if language is not.


I have no desperation whatsoever, you are just irrationally black-and-white with your interpretations. All I said is, that we cannot ad hoc exclude any haplogroup which has wide distribution in the Uralic peoples: this concerns N3, N2 and R1a.


If they happen to have wide distribution in the Uralic-speaking populations, then we should of course keep also them in mind. However, I remember that they don't have wide distribution.


It is good that you are starting to see that there are many possible interpretations from the genetic data. Any haplogroup with wide distribution could be connected to certain language family. Furthermore, even many haplogroups with narrow distribution could be connected to certain branches of certain language family.

We cannot judge that until it is studied.
That is my point: We cannot make claims either to include or to exclude lineages before we have studied the data and compared it to the linguistic results. That's what science is about: no guesses but research!

well modern day Finno-Ugrian Z93 is almost entirely under Scytho-Siberian clades, which share recent ancestors with Turkic people or Scytho-Sarmatians so unlikely directly from Fatyanovo or even Abashevo and most likely from back-migrations from the East.

Basal and non-Scytho-Turkic Z93 is very rare among any Finno-Ugrian group today. Only among some Slavic Central Russians i have seen some of these pre-Scytho-Turkic Z93 which maybe was carried by previous Pre-Slavic populations. Still i don't really expect Z93 to play an important role among Proto-Finno-Ugrians. Yeah you can argue the low freuqency and almost absence of basal Z93 is just because of founder effects but somehow all Finno-Ugrians from Finnland to Siberia had the same kind of founder effect after 1500-2000 B.C which removed basal and non-Scytho-Siberian Z93.

https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-S23592/ (Mordovians are under this clade very typical for Scythians/Saka and modern day Turkic people)

[Huck Finn]

There is one sample from Oy_Dzhaylau which picks up signs of Uralic-related ancestry although it is from near Bishkek of all places so the connection to Uralics in Europe is not so clear.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.2062% / 0.02206244 | R5P
44.0 RUS_Poltavka_o
25.6 SVK_EBA
17.0 KAZ_Georgievsky2_LBA
8.4 Uyelgi
5.0 RUS_Petrovka_MLBA

Without Uyelgi and a long list of Uralic-related samples

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.3594% / 0.02359354 | R5P
44.2 RUS_Poltavka_o
35.4 SVK_EBA
15.6 KAZ_Kyzlbulak_MLBA2
3.8 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
1.0 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o

I wouldn't even know about this sample if it wasn't close to Huck Finn in the number generator. As far as I can tell none of the other steppe samples from the same period pick such populations instead of WSHG or Altai-related admixture.

Target: KAZ_Kyzlbulak_MLBA2
Distance: 6.1904% / 0.06190440
36.4 Darginian
25.2 Jatt_Pathak
21.2 Udmurt
14.4 Latvian
2.0 Karitiana
0.8 Norwegian

You're seem to be right, there's apparently a Uralic connection. Something like 5-10 % of the autosomal of the Dzaylau individual can be attributed to some Uralic like population such as Uyelgi. This is MLBA, I wonder what's the timing estimate of the burial?

[Standardized Ape]

You're seem to be right, there's apparently a Uralic connection. Something like 5-10 % of the autosomal of the Dzaylau individual can be attributed to some Uralic like population such as Uyelgi. This is MLBA, I wonder what's the timing estimate of the burial?

Udmurts have very high ANE and such so in a model with only modern populations steppe ancestry will tend to find it's home in Izhevsk. If you allow ancient samples the models become more specific.

[Coldmountains]

There is one sample from Oy_Dzhaylau which picks up signs of Uralic-related ancestry although it is from near Bishkek of all places so the connection to Uralics in Europe is not so clear.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.2062% / 0.02206244 | R5P
44.0 RUS_Poltavka_o
25.6 SVK_EBA
17.0 KAZ_Georgievsky2_LBA
8.4 Uyelgi
5.0 RUS_Petrovka_MLBA

Without Uyelgi and a long list of Uralic-related samples

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.3594% / 0.02359354 | R5P
44.2 RUS_Poltavka_o
35.4 SVK_EBA
15.6 KAZ_Kyzlbulak_MLBA2
3.8 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA
1.0 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA_o

I wouldn't even know about this sample if it wasn't close to Huck Finn in the number generator. As far as I can tell none of the other steppe samples from the same period pick such populations instead of WSHG or Altai-related admixture.

The model is overfitted and too many similar components. I would not say it has direct significant Uralic-admix more likely just more East Asian shifted WSHG-like ancestry like Okunevo. Using a more reduced and basal model it does not pick of Kra_BA significantly.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.8801% / 0.02880064
88.4 RUS_Poltavka_o
11.6 RUS_Okunevo_BA

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.8285% / 0.02828450
90.6 RUS_Poltavka_o
5.2 KAZ_Botai
4.2 MNG_North_N

[Huck Finn]

Udmurts have very high ANE and such so in a model with only modern populations steppe ancestry will tend to find it's home in Izhevsk. If you allow ancient samples the models become more specific.

Sure, just wanted to emphasize the connection by using modern labels.

[Huck Finn]

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.8285% / 0.02828450
90.6 RUS_Poltavka_o
5.2 KAZ_Botai
4.2 MNG_North_N

This, on the other hand, looks like G's qpAdm based on OLS_10, the non-local-like components being Baikal_EBA and Sintashta_o.

[Standardized Ape]

The model is overfitted and too many similar components. I would not say it has direct significant Uralic-admix more likely just more East Asian shifted WSHG-like ancestry like Okunevo. Using a more reduced and basal model it does not pick of Kra_BA significantly.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.8801% / 0.02880064
88.4 RUS_Poltavka_o
11.6 RUS_Okunevo_BA

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.8285% / 0.02828450
90.6 RUS_Poltavka_o
5.2 KAZ_Botai
4.2 MNG_North_N

Uyelgi is still picked up in a minimalist model even if kra001 does not show.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.5484% / 0.02548383
88.6 RUS_Poltavka_o:I0432
8.2 Uyelgi2_scaled
2.0 MNG_North_N:I13698
1.2 KAZ_Botai:BOT2016

The problem of course is that the Uyelgi samples are not of high quality. Yet they show up quite consistently. We can swap it for Mansi and it still works but is worse.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.7183% / 0.02718328
89.2 RUS_Poltavka_o:I0432
7.0 Mansi
2.2 KAZ_Botai:BOT2016
1.6 MNG_North_N:I13698

[Coldmountains]

Uyelgi is still picked up in a minimalist model even if kra001 does not show.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.5484% / 0.02548383
88.6 RUS_Poltavka_o:I0432
8.2 Uyelgi2_scaled
2.0 MNG_North_N:I13698
1.2 KAZ_Botai:BOT2016

The problem of course is that the Uyelgi samples are not of high quality. Yet they show up quite consistently. We can swap it for Mansi and it still works but is worse.

Target: KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA:I3861
Distance: 2.7183% / 0.02718328
89.2 RUS_Poltavka_o:I0432
7.0 Mansi
2.2 KAZ_Botai:BOT2016
1.6 MNG_North_N:I13698

Uyelgi and Mansi have Steppe_MLBA and probably some WSHG. At least 50% of their ancestry is West Eurasian/West Siberian so these results translate to around 3-4% Kra_BA affinity what could be also explained with more eastern shifted Central Asian/WSHG/Botai-like ancestry. This should be checked with qpAdm to be sure.

[Huck Finn]

BI No 22, Grave 4(I3861): Date of 1872-1684 calBCE(3435±20 BP, PSUAMS-3115).

"We present genome-wide ancient DNA from eight individuals from the site of Oy-Dzhaylau 1275(Oi-Dzhailau, Oi-Zhailau) burial ground, located in southern Kazakhstan, 40 km west of the Otrar railway station, in the Kurday district of the Zhambyl region."

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/bior...1/292581-1.pdf

This is not yet Ural area, of course, rather south of Omsk.

[Standardized Ape]

Uyelgi and Mansi have Steppe_MLBA and probably some WSHG. At least 50% of their ancestry is West Eurasian/West Siberian so these results translate to around 3-4% Kra_BA affinity what could be also explained with more eastern shifted Central Asian/WSHG/Botai-like ancestry. This should be checked with qpAdm to be sure.

Yep. Cherkaskul and Sargat mounds should in theory reveal such individuals but with less WSH. Mezhovskaya is derived from Cherkaskul and that's what we see there.

Target: RUS_Mezhovskaya:RISE525
Distance: 2.3630% / 0.02362977
61.4 RUS_Poltavka_o:I0432
12.8 KAZ_Botai:BOT2016
11.8 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA:kra001
7.0 MNG_North_N:I13698
7.0 Yamnaya_KAZ_Karagash:Yamnaya_Karagash

Target: RUS_Mezhovskaya:RISE523
Distance: 2.3735% / 0.02373451
70.4 RUS_Poltavka_o:I0432
9.4 RUS_Srubnaya_MLBA_o:I0354
9.0 RUS_Krasnoyarsk_BA:kra001
8.6 RUS_Samara_HG:I0124
2.6 MNG_North_N:I13698

By the way I don't really think overfitting is such a big problem with G25-Vahaduo but I guess that's a personal opinion. You often get more realistic fits by overfitting in my experience rather than less realistic.