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Thread: L51 into Europe West of the Steppe Via Corded Ware

  1. #531
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    FWIW, Ian McDonald did some extensive dating analysis for U106 and P312 a couple of years back.
    He had
    P312 Best guess...was born around 3079 BC,
    95% confidence interval i.e. The real date is likely to be in the range of 3764 BC — 2524 BC.
    We know it's got to be earlier than 2524 BC due to dating of RISE563 (U152) at 2542 BC as there is 3-4 mutations between P312 and U152.

    U106 was dated similarly

    If Ian's best guess is accurate, then it means U106 and P312 were born just prior to Nordqvist & Heyd's estimated Corded Ware formation (3000-2900 BC).

    By comparison, Yfull has P312 95% CI range at 3350 -2350 BC midpoint 2850 BC. I tend to believe Yfull dates are often too young.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 01-24-2021 at 09:37 PM.
    Y DNA line continued: Z142>Z12222>FGC12378>FGC12401>FGC12384
    37% English, 26% Scot/Ulster Scot, 14% Welsh, 14% German, 3% Ireland, 3% Nordic, 2% French/Dutch, 1% India
    Hidden Content

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  3. #532
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    Haven't heard any rumors about V1636 in SGC, but the rumors have been flying for the last year and a half about L51 in SGC in a big way.

    It doesn't seem that V1636 was very successful in Europe one way or the other, despite that recent find in Egfjord (2021), and that one died as a child. Too much of that dying as a child stuff doesn't help the success of a Y-DNA haplogroup.
    I hope these scientists remain scientist.

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  5. #533
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    FWIW, Ian McDonald did some extensive dating analysis for U106 and P312 a couple of years back.
    He had
    P312 Best guess...was born around 3079 BC,
    95% confidence interval i.e. The real date is likely to be in the range of 3764 BC — 2524 BC.
    We know it's got to be earlier than 2524 BC due to dating of RISE563 (U152) at 2542 BC as there is 3-4 mutations between P312 and U152.

    U106 was dated similarly

    If Ian's best guess is accurate, then it means U106 and P312 were born just prior to Nordqvist & Heyd's estimated Corded Ware formation (3000-2900 BC).

    By comparison, Yfull has P312 95% CI range at 3350 -2350 BC
    Time will tell, I guess.

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  7. #534
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    Time will tell, I guess.
    R1b, with DYS393= 12

    Even almost 15 years ago some were pretty accurate for using str's(posted by user --R1b-FGC36981 ). Here is a classic, since R1b-Z2103 have str 393-12, time just flies by.....

    Who knew?

    6 November 2006, 06:28 PM
    It's very unlikely that any "Aurignacians" were R1b, since R1b is more than likely less than 10,000 years old. The calculation of the ages of some of the major y-haplogroups can be seen here.

    In order to arrive at the outlandish ages sometimes given for some of the younger y-haplogroups like R1b, a "fudge factor" (and that is exactly what it is called) of 3 or more is employed.

    The analysis of 37-marker haplotypes at the link I posted above shows what the ages of the haplogroups are without such an enormous fudge factor, ages based simply on known mutation rates.

    It is also a fact that R1b haplotype variance increases as one moves east into Western and Central Asia. Greater haplotype variance is a sign of greater age. What that means is that R1b originated in Western or Central Asia between 7,000 and 8,000 years ago. That makes sense not only because the oldest R1b haplotypes are found there, but also because those haplogroups immediately ancestral to R1b - P, R, R1 - are sometimes found in Central Asia and rarely found in Europe.

    Here is an article that, while it is not specifically about R1b, has some interesting R1b distribution and variance maps. Check out map D on p. 9 of the pdf version. It shows clearly the increasing variance of R1b haplotypes as one moves east into Asia from Europe. Variance was determined based on STR markers.
    Last edited by Silesian; 01-25-2021 at 01:45 PM.

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  9. #535
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silesian View Post
    R1b, with DYS393= 12

    Even almost 20 years ago some were pretty accurate for using str's(posted by user --R1b-FGC36981 ). Here is a classic, since R1b-Z2103 have str 393-12, time just flies by.....

    Who knew?
    My own variant of DF19 has DYS393=12; it causes all sorts of chaos and mismatching. I hate STRs
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>BY44243

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Thomas Gunn (DF19) b1605; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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  11. #536
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    My own variant of DF19 has DYS393=12; it causes all sorts of chaos and mismatching. I hate STRs
    Try having a haplotype that's almost the spit of Scots Modal for the first 25 loci and still looks quite convincing at 37 : )

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  13. #537
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdean View Post
    Try having a haplotype that's almost the spit of Scots Modal for the first 25 loci and still looks quite convincing at 37 : )
    I have Oppenheimer's "Frisian Modal Haplotype". Even Ken Nordtvedt and Jim Wilson expected me to be U106+, which is why Jim Wilson retested my sample when I came up S21- on Ethnoancestry's old S Series test.

    It's not until one gets to 67 markers, when my 492=12 shows up, that I start to look un-Frisian and U106- (S21-).

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  15. #538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    My own variant of DF19 has DYS393=12; it causes all sorts of chaos and mismatching. I hate STRs
    It happens more often than we think. We even have quite a few DYS393=11 guys who aren't Z2103.

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  17. #539
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    Sounds kind of shaky all the way around.

    Hopefully I'll get an answer from Reich's lab.
    I’d be interested to hear what he tells you in regards to this sample, whether the likelihood of this being confirmed is far-fetched or not.
    AncestryDNA results:
    England, Wales, & NW Europe 73%
    Ireland & Scotland 18%
    Germanic Europe 5%
    France 3%
    Cameroon, Congo 1%

    23&me results:
    British & Irish 62.9%
    French & German 15.0%
    Scandinavian 0.9%
    Broadly Northwestern European 19.4%
    Broadly Southern European 0.9%
    Broadly European 0.1%
    Sub-Saharan African 0.7%

  18. #540
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    ....
    The ubiquitous beakers were apparently an important part of some sort of drinking ritual, perhaps religious, which is why they were used as grave goods, especially in male burials.
    I suppose that is a part of the significance of the bell shaped pottery, although the pots were probably made by women.

    We have to be on guard against infatuations. I at one time or another thought fancifully of connections to ancient Irish poems and all things Gaelic, the Norman enigma, Spanish/Iberian swarthy Welsh, etc., etc. I also include the "Bell Beaker phenomenon" now. The scope of the Bell Beakers probably needs to be truncated on the front-end (Iberia) or completely renamed on the back-end (steppes/P312). They are different people, probably with different languages and more differences than can be seen in artifacts. It's still quite a phenomenon on the back-end with the take over of both the British Isles and Iberia.

    The emotions are something I hope scientists try to set aside. This is the last line of this editorial article but I'm sure it is heartfelt among some portion of the researchers.

    "One can argue about causes and effects, resilience and regional variability, but not without studying possible correlations and the possible ways in which the natural world could affect subsistence, demography and ultimately culture during the second half of the 3rd millennium BC: our beloved Bell Beaker phenomenon."

    "Editorial: Think global, act local! The Archéologie et Gobelets workshop in Kiel and some future perspectives for research into the 3rd millennium BC", Jos Kleigne (2018)
    https://www.academia.edu/38147291/Ed...card=thumbnail

    It's not a good idea to love a scientific hypothesis too much.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 01-25-2021 at 03:19 AM.

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