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Thread: L51 into Europe West of the Steppe Via Corded Ware

  1. #581
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    I know we've stopped talking about RIDE550 and I don't won't to disagree with FTDNA (apart from anything else I don't have any special skills that qualify my for taking the debate to that level) but

    The sequence reported in the BAM file for M12145 looks a bit like a car crash to me, there are 14 areas that match the reference sequence 100% according to BLAT

    the closest match for the PF6535 sequence on the other hand is 94.9%

    Bearing in mind that they are both mutations that are susceptible to misdiagnoses due to rot (G to A & C to T) I don't really see how FTDNA can claim the M12145 call more reliable ?
    Last edited by jdean; 01-26-2021 at 04:52 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    We have DF99 in Italy too, I think. DF19 appears continental which leaves a wide open space for origin.

    L238 is the only subclade of P312 that I can say is clearly Baltic/North Sea. It's MRCA is 3 SNPs downstream of P312's which would give it 200-300 years to make it north into Scandinavia.

    We can't really say (strongly) U106 originated along the Baltic, can we? Our ancient DNA on U106 is quite a distance age wise from U106's true TMRCA. We have ancient U106 in Unetice, which is quite a ways to the south (of Battle Axe).

    I don't know U106 that well. Is Z18 similar to L238? They call themselves the North Sea tribe, but they are 10 SNPs downstream of U106 so that is maybe a 1000 years to find a way into Scandinavia.

    Look at the early branch of U106, R-BY30097. It is the ancestor of the massive R-Z381 subclade. Where are the R-BY30097* people? I know of only two. One is from Germany and the other Italy.

    Modern populations are to predict origins from.

    P312 and U106 brother R1b-P310>L151>S1194 may be the best evidence of a northern origin. I can't find anything in S1194 that is Southern European and S1194's MRCA is old, only one SNP downstream of L151's MRCA.
    Excluding New World and UK and Ireland, P312 Brother clade S1194 is found (in descending order on FTDNA haplotree) in Germany Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, France, Belgium, Austria, Czech Rep, Hungary. Nothing in the Balkans or along the Med.

    P312>DF19 is descending order Germany (94 samples), Belgium, Netherlands, France, Norway, Sweden, Poland, Czech Rep, Switzerland, Austria, Russia, Denmark, Italy (2 samples), Luxembourg (1 sample), Portugal (1 sample). Only 3 samples along the Med so far and nothing in the Balkans.

    P312>Y18211: 1 sample each from Ukraine & Belgium

    PF7589: Germany (24 samples) Switzerland (9), Italy (8), Spain (4), Belgium (3), France (2), Poland (2), Portugal (2), Czech (2), Turkey (1), Croatia (1), Hungary (1), Austria (1), Norway (1), Sweden (1). While there are some in Med Sea countries, the bulk appear (~2.5 to 1 ratio) to be from Northern Europe.

    None of the above is really supports a Med route. Could L151 have hopped on a boat in the Black Sea and got off near the Rhone River and headed up to Northern Europe (e.g. SGC), before the L151 population occurred? Sure anything is possible.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 01-26-2021 at 05:16 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    We have DF99 in Italy too, I think. DF19 appears continental which leaves a wide open space for origin.

    L238 is the only subclade of P312 that I can say is clearly Baltic/North Sea. It's MRCA is 3 SNPs downstream of P312's which would give it 200-300 years to make it north into Scandinavia.

    We can't really say (strongly) U106 originated along the Baltic, can we? Our ancient DNA on U106 is quite a distance age wise from U106's true TMRCA. We have ancient U106 in Unetice, which is quite a ways to the south (of Battle Axe).

    I don't know U106 that well. Is Z18 similar to L238? They call themselves the North Sea tribe, but they are 10 SNPs downstream of U106 so that is maybe a 1000 years to find a way into Scandinavia.

    Look at the early branch of U106, R-BY30097. It is the ancestor of the massive R-Z381 subclade. Where are the R-BY30097* people? I know of only two. One is from Germany and the other Italy.

    Modern populations are to predict origins from.

    P312 and U106 brother R1b-P310>L151>S1194 may be the best evidence of a northern origin. I can't find anything in S1194 that is Southern European and S1194's MRCA is old, only one SNP downstream of L151's MRCA.
    DF19's modern distribution pattern (not frequency) looks very much like U106. But unlike their fortunate Uncle U106, no samples from Battle Axe/CW (or even Beaker) eras.
    The oldest sample (6DT23 ~250CE) looks closest to an Insular Celt as a single pop, but his makeup leaves the possibility of a lot of Germanic mixed in from previous generations.
    The second oldest (RMPR31 carbon dated to ~376 CE) was found in Rome, but looks closest to modern Norwegian average.

    Distance to: ITA_Rome_Late_Antiquity:RMPR31
    0.02240159 Norwegian
    0.02290643 Dutch
    0.02295681 Danish
    0.02304767 French_Pas-de-Calais
    0.02341117 Afrikaner
    0.02345321 Swedish
    0.02382061 Welsh
    0.02412413 German
    0.02468599 English
    0.02499629 Icelandic
    0.02546458 French_Brittany
    0.02546811 French_Paris
    0.02595309 French_Nord
    0.02601649 Belgian
    0.02615266 English_Cornwall
    0.02633935 Scottish
    0.02708928 French_Alsace
    0.02746175 Orcadian
    0.02755623 Irish
    0.02857893 Swiss_German
    0.02910247 Shetlandic
    0.02940783 Italian_Aosta_Valley
    0.02977608 French_Seine-Maritime
    0.02981209 Austrian
    0.03011748 Swiss_French

    Closest Individuals (ancient and modern):

    Distance to: ITA_Rome_Late_Antiquity:RMPR31
    0.01247117 VK2020_EST_Saaremaa_EVA:VK492
    0.01430210 England_Saxon:I0777
    0.01442047 VK2020_SWE_Skara_VA:VK303
    0.01539286 Swedish:Sweden18


    So if DF19 looks Continental, maybe "_northern_ Continental (even Jutland/Frisia/S. Baltic) in a place with acidic soils and/or a culture that practiced cremation" would be more specific?
    The Norwegian/Dutch/Danish in the averages and the Saxon and Swedish in the individuals seem to be a strong hint at Jutland for a Continental possibility.

    L238 looks like the "piggy who stayed home" and didn't play a major part in early Germanic expansion (Vikings are another matter) even where Uncle U106 did.
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>BY44243

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Thomas Gunn (DF19) b1605; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    PF7589: Germany (24 samples) Switzerland (9), Italy (8), Spain (4), Belgium (3), France (2), Poland (2), Portugal (2), Czech (2), Turkey (1), Croatia (1), Hungary (1), Austria (1), Norway (1), Sweden (1). While there are some in Med Sea countries, the bulk appear (~2.5 to 1 ratio) to be from Northern Europe.
    Modern distributions of R1b-L51>PF7589 could be used to argue for a Mediterranean route or some combination of a Danubian/Mediterranean route. The sample from Turkey is especially something to think about. YFull has him as a true R-PF7589*.

    I think we all know of a fellow who bases much of the out of Italy everything theory on PF7589/Z2118. In all fairness to the guy, there are a lot of Italians spread across the early branching of R-PF7589. R-PF7589 IS the non-P310 branch so it pulls some strong consideration.

    However, (and I missed a word), it is hard to predict ancient origins from modern populations and these modern distributions color our thinking quite a bit.

    I think the most important find so far is still the P310* way out in Mongolia about 3000BC. That puts us in East Europe at least. However, that doesn't argue that an L51 Black Sea sailing group couldn't have been related from back home somewhere in the Pontic-Caspian region. All roads and voyages would lead back to there.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 01-26-2021 at 05:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jdean View Post
    I know we've stopped talking about RIDE550 and I don't won't to disagree with FTDNA (apart from anything else I don't have any special skills that qualify my for taking the debate to that level) but

    The sequence reported in the BAM file for M12145 looks a bit like a car crash to me, there are 14 areas that match the reference sequence 100% according to BLAT

    the closest match for the PF6535 sequence on the other hand is 94.9%

    Bearing in mind that they are both mutations that are susceptible to misdiagnoses due to rot (G to A & C to T) I don't really see how FTDNA can claim the M12145 call more reliable ?
    Just a word of caution. I wasn't speaking directly to the phylogenetic analyst.
    I just think anything below R-M269 on this sample is uncertain enough to not hold much weight as evidence of anything. That's all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    Center of gravity for many of the smaller P312 subclades, and L51 subclade PF7589 is along the south Baltic coast. I would more inclined to go with River skills that expand into coastal sea skills once they get to the Baltic and North Seas. But like I said in a previous post: If a trade network existed along their routes, they didn't need to have strong mariner skills, they just had to barter with or coerce the locals to get them across said body of water. e.g. Dothraki crossing the Narrow Sea.

    Amber trade routes from the Baltic in this era had to cross several bodies of water


    I missed my favorite route (via the Pripyat, Pripet, or pick your own spelling) on this amber-specific map. And anyway, Vladimir Taraskin has recently declared the Pripyat swamp impassable, or something like that (maybe the comment was specific to pastoralists with herds). But just yesterday I happened upon this article, less than a year old, suggesting that my favorite route is about to be dredged to a depth of three meters and provided with locks, etc. for ship traffic between the Black Sea and the Baltic. So I'll just link that, primarily for its map, and for the mention (early in the long piece) that the route has been in use for thousands of years, was known to the ancient Greeks, the Vikings, etc. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ret-amazon-aoe

    Be forewarned, it is really depressing. The ship route, if built, is expected to devastate the area's well-known biodiversity, and make the human population of Belarus even more radioactive; the sediment to be dredged up contains remnants of the Chernobyl disaster. But, hey, some folks in the shipping business will get richer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by etrusco View Post
    R-M269(xR-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)

    R-P297(xR-M269-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I0124 / M
    Find location: Lebyanzhinka, Sok River, Samara
    Country: Russia
    Associated label in publication: EHG
    Date: 5657-5541 calBCE (6680±30 BP, Beta-392490)
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5a1d
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a (P297)
    Reference: MathiesonNature2015 (1240k of same same sample with 390k in HaakLazaridis2015)
    Colour group: EHG
    Comments: null
    Last edited by Silesian; 01-26-2021 at 07:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silesian View Post
    R-M269(xR-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)

    R-P297(xR-M269-PF7562,R-L23,Z2103,L51)
    I know very well that sample: There is a R1b M 269 sample also on the lower Volga dated around 4200/4000 IIRC.

    The sample you mentioned is probably the famous Samara Hunter Gather
    Last edited by etrusco; 01-26-2021 at 07:44 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by etrusco View Post
    I know very well that sample: There is a R1b M 269 sample also on the lower Volga dated around 4200/4000 IIRC.

    The sample you mentioned is probably the famous Samara Hunter Gather
    Yes 100% correct---R-P297 and R-V1636 from Volga region, 15600+/- ybp, Same region fast forward to bronze age you have R1b-Z2103-Z2108/9 .
    Last edited by Silesian; 01-26-2021 at 08:27 PM.

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