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Thread: SNP Age Estimations

  1. #1
    Registered Users
    Scottish / Irish
    Y-DNA (P)
    R1b L1065/S744/S756
    mtDNA (M)

    Canada Scotland Ireland

    SNP Age Estimations

    Just wondering people’s thoughts on the accuracy of YFull and the age calculations from 2017 used in Alex Williamson’s Big Y Tree. (Note for YFull ages used 1950 as base year minus the TRMCA, Big Y Tree used 1950 minus the median):

    L1335: 350BC (YFull) vs 1201BC (Big Y Tree) vs 1253BC (Ian McDonald estimates made in 2017)
    L1065: 50AD (YFull) vs 44AD (Big Y Tree) vs 3AD (Ian McDonald estimates made in 2017)
    S744: 150AD (YFull) vs 223AD (Big Y Tree) vs 227AD (Ian McDonald estimates made in 2017)
    S764: 600AD (YFull) vs 575AD (Big Y Tree) vs 440AD (Ian McDonald estimates made in 2017)
    S756: 1000AD (YFull) vs 639AD (Big Y Tree) vs 639AD (Ian McDonald estimates made in 2017)
    BY154: 1350AD (YFull) vs 840AD (Big Y Tree) vs 1440AD (Ian McDonald estimates made in 2017)

    Two observations I have are:

    1. Overall the estimations are in the same Ball Park as one another, however there is a big delta between YFull’s estimate and the other two.

    2. The more recently calculated data (YFull’s) give more recent estimations. (Is this a result of more recent data?)

    Interested to hear everyone’s thoughts on how the SNP estimations will look whenever they are recalculated by Ian McDonald, Alex William’s Tree or if the FTDNA Big Y Block Tree ever age SNP Age estimations for SNPs? Will the SNP estimations show to be older than currently thought, stay the same or show to be more recent?
    Last edited by Peter MacDonald; 06-13-2020 at 05:31 PM.

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