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Thread: ***Big News*** - Basal and North Eurasian split in South Asia; No Aryan Migration

  1. #1

    ***Big News*** - Basal and North Eurasian split in South Asia; No Aryan Migration

    Hi,

    I can show that South Asia is the root of the tree for most Eurasians out of Africa.

    I know there has been a lot of speculation regarding an Indo European migration into South Asia. This is currently refuted as it can be seen that South Asia is the root of the tree for Eurasians after they left Africa, so this explains the EHG and ANE affinity of Northern South Asians. Further, there is significant West Asian Farmer (Iranian, Anatolian, CHG, Balochi) DNA in Bronze Age steppe groups such as Yamnaya, Afanasievo, Maikop compared with EHG, AG3, Botai, MA1. Therefore, it is strongly refuted that IE originated in the steppe.


    Basal and North Eurasians are derived from South Asia

    I have been looking at this for a long time and can show this in different ways, but this is the simplest way of looking at it.

    In the 1240K HO db there are two Andaman Island samples, Ong and Jarawa. We assume they are the closest to the first Eurasians outside of Africa. We then compare the affinity of all Eurasians to these two, vs each other. We find that Basal Eurasian is on one end of the spectrum, the one closest to Jarawa vs Ong, and ANE/East Asian are on the other end, closest to Ong.


    All other groups are in the middle, so we can see that the Basal and North Eurasian split occurred very early and effects every sample, even the oldest one we have, Ust Ishim, at 45Ky. We can place every Eurasian smoothly on this 'cline', thus defining their position in the Basal vs North Eurasian spectrum.

    d(Jarawa, Ong; Pop;Yoruba)

    JarVsOng.jpg

    This is not great though, as the standard error tells us. So, I reformulated the query.

    d(Yoruba, Jarawa; Pop, Ong)

    d(Yoruba,Jay,Pop,Ong).jpg

    The smooth gradient of affinity shows that this must stem from the earliest populations that split into Basal and North Eurasian. Clearly, this must be rooted in the earliest populations of South Asia, as that is the only place where West and North Eurasian can converge geographically. Further, modern South Asians are closer to Jarawa in the West and Ong in the East, preserving to some extent this cline to the present.

    It is likely, in my opinion, that this is due to early South Asians populations being split between East and West, with the Western population based around the Baluchistan/Sind/Gujarat area and the other cluster more towards the East and North.

    Indo European

    The above explains the affinity of (Northern) South Asians to ANE, and by proxy to Bronze Age steppe groups. There is little evidence remaining for the Aryan Migration theory. South Asia has very diverse Eurasian Y-DNA HGs due to being at the root of the tree.

    Furthermore, there is lots of West Asian farmer DNA in IE steppe groups, more than ANE in Iranians. This is clear to see, so I wont post data on it here.

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    Hmmm where to begin?

    Ok, so your first graph, see those yellow bars? Those represent what is called a 'standard error', a measure of statistical variation by chance.
    The statistic of interest (in this case the d-value) divided by the standard error (std. err.) is called a 'z-score'.
    The higher the z-score, the less likely something is to just be the result of random chance. A z-score of 2 means something is only 5% likely to have happened by chance, a z-score of 3 means 0.03% likely to have happened by chance.
    Typically you want a z-score of at the very least 2, but usually 3 or more (the blue bar to be 2-3x or more larger than the yellow bar) to show that anything of interest is going on.

    As a result of that first graph, the second graph only shows that some populations are more related to BOTH Onge and Jarawa, no big surprise there.
    Collection of 14,000 d-stats: Hidden Content Part 2: Hidden Content Part 3: Hidden Content PM me for d-stats, qpadm, qpgraph, or f3-outgroup nmonte models.

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    Go away beyondAtheism. .

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    Well..Basal eurasian origin is either Arabia or South asia , that's the only logical conclusion regarding his ancient distribution.

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    Or it doesn't exist and is an artifact of a subset of West Eurasians having East Eurasian mixture. ANA is another story.
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    Quote Originally Posted by beyondAtheism View Post
    I know there has been a lot of speculation regarding an Indo European migration into South Asia. This is currently refuted as it can be seen that South Asia is the root of the tree for Eurasians after they left Africa, so this explains the EHG and ANE affinity of Northern South Asians. Further, there is significant West Asian Farmer (Iranian, Anatolian, CHG, Balochi) DNA in Bronze Age steppe groups such as Yamnaya, Afanasievo, Maikop compared with EHG, AG3, Botai, MA1. Therefore, it is strongly refuted that IE originated in the steppe.
    Lol.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunnin...3Kruger_effect

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  12. #7
    I dont want a long debate here, the data seems pretty clear to me, but I appreciate your valid point below (second quote) about the second graph not saying much.

    We need to separate out the two trends that serve as evidence, to make things clear.

    Evidence 1. North-East Eurasian has more ONG affinity (vs Jarawa) than Basal (closer to Jarawa). (not as clear a trend)
    Evidence 2. Basal has less ASI (Ong and Jarawa) than North-East Eurasian. (very clear)


    (Here we are discussing Evidence 1)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post
    Hmmm where to begin?

    Ok, so your first graph, see those yellow bars? Those represent what is called a 'standard error', a measure of statistical variation by chance.
    The statistic of interest (in this case the d-value) divided by the standard error (std. err.) is called a 'z-score'.
    The higher the z-score, the less likely something is to just be the result of random chance. A z-score of 2 means something is only 5% likely to have happened by chance, a z-score of 3 means 0.03% likely to have happened by chance.
    Typically you want a z-score of at the very least 2, but usually 3 or more (the blue bar to be 2-3x or more larger than the yellow bar) to show that anything of interest is going on.

    This I dont understand. This graph does a good job of splitting out East Asian and ANE from West Eurasian (Basal). You seem to be suggesting this is some sort of fluke from the data. I know the the signal is not clear, and there are populations 'in the wrong place' so to speak, but the trend is still visible to me.

    Your rebuttal seems to amount to "it's just a fluke, look at the stdErr". If I've missed something then my bad but that is all you seem to be saying.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post

    As a result of that first graph, the second graph only shows that some populations are more related to BOTH Onge and Jarawa, no big surprise there.
    You are right about this, so I appreciate the feedback.

    Yes, some populations are more related to BOTH Ong and Jarawa, and my second query is not separating that out. So, We can just look at this by comparing

    f3(Jar, pop; Ong)

    f3(jar,pop,ong).jpg

    with

    f3(Ong, pop;Jar)

    f3(ong,pop,jar).jpg


    The first, f3(Jar, Pop; Ong) is the allele sharing with Jar, using Ong as an outgroup. Here West Asians have the most and North Eurasians have the least, generally.

    The second, f3(Ong, Pop; Jar) is the allele sharing with Ong, using Jarawa as an outgroup. Here the order is generally the opposite, with ANE and East asians sharing the most with Ong, and West Asians the least.

    So this has nothing to do with some pops being closer to BOTH.

    So, yeah it is pretty clear, but there are some, populations in the 'wrong' place. I never said this would be perfect, but the general reversal in relative magnitude of affinity (order from most similar to least) shows us that West Asians share more with Jar and East Asians with Ong. Some like Italy HG and Sweden HG are in the 'wrong place' and have high stdErrs, thats ok for me. Others like AG3 and similar groups are in unexpected locations, but the general trend is clear.


    (Now we discuss Evidence 2)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kale View Post
    As a result of that first graph, the second graph only shows that some populations are more related to BOTH Onge and Jarawa, no big surprise there.


    Actually, this is evidence in my favour.

    My second graph is just, as you stated, closeness to both Ong and Jarawa ie closeness to ASI. It is the same as

    f3(Ong, Pop; Yoruba)

    f3(ong,pop,yoruba).jpg

    This is a gradual difference from East Asian all the way to Natufian.

    So this is due to either

    1. Early splitting of Basal from ancestral Eurasian (ASI) in a gradient from East to West in South Asia, and all Eurasians are rooted in South Asia so have some amount of this drift.

    or

    2. We dont know how Eurasian split into Basal and North Eurasian. Assume Basal just existed in Western Asia and North Eurasian just existed in North and East Asia. Then either

    2A )Basal travels North and East, from SW Asia, and admixes into all groups such that MA1 has more than Mongol, who has more than Han. So Basal basically travelled from SW Asia to North East Eurasia
    2B ) Similar to above but this time Ong (ASI) travels from South (East) Asia all the way around South Asia, admixing first into Han, then Mongol all the way to Iran where Iran_N has more than Natufian.


    2A) confused Lazaridis when he found Basal in MA1 who to explain it in a myriad of speculations and theories.


    So yeah, I have my truth (1) and you can have yours (2A or 2 .
    Last edited by beyondAtheism; 06-16-2020 at 04:20 PM.

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    Folks don't even reply to this individual. He is a troll...Don't feed the troll and he will end up giving up.

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  15. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by J Man View Post
    Folks don't even reply to this individual. He is a troll...Don't feed the troll and he will end up giving up.
    I actually dont want a reply, prefer to have the last word and move on.

    But you sound like someone losing a debate.

    Just to let you know, be careful what you say, because I am going to blast this on YT, and any disrespectul responses I get here will be used to accuse AG mods, Harvard and all these Western Academic institutions, who push these flawed theories and then disrespect good counter-arguments, as racist and biased.

    I'm not out to troll, but I already have a YT where just recently I got more subs without making videos (there is an increasing interest in this topic) and there is a big movement I'm sure you are aware of in the West against Racism (institutional and otherwise) and Elitism.

    People ignoring or disrespecting good arguments, while pushing a flawed narrative, should be aware that this strategy is on it's last legs.
    Last edited by beyondAtheism; 06-16-2020 at 04:26 PM.

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