Page 1 of 10 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 94

Thread: Experimental K12 "Deep" Calculator for Africans and West Eurasians

  1. #1
    Registered Users
    Posts
    559
    Sex
    Ethnicity
    Celto-Germanic, Near East
    Nationality
    Murcan
    Y-DNA (P)
    R1b-U152
    mtDNA (M)
    T2a1a

    United States of America

    Experimental K24 Calculator with "Deep" Components for Africans

    Recently I posted a speculative Out of America hypothesis here. Part of what intrigued me about this hypothesis was a recent paper by Max Planck & Ian Mathieson which posited a Eurasian back-migration into Africa. This paper has been received otherwise on this forum with confusion, since it doesn't seem to "make sense" with the traditional phylogeny... I will repost a quick excerpt here:

    Here we present SMCSMC, a Bayesian method for inference of time-varying population sizes and directional migration rates under the coalescent-with-recombination model, to study ancient demographic events. We find evidence for substantial migration from the ancestors of present-day Eurasians into African groups between 40 and 70 thousand years ago, predating the divergence of Eastern and Western Eurasian lineages.
    ……
    We find that the method infers high rates of migration from descendants of the OoA event (’non-Africans’) to Africans, but not in the opposite direction, in the period 30–70kya corresponding to the Late Middle Paleolithic…. Inferred IMFs are not significantly different between Han Chinese and European populations in non-Afroasiatic populations (p=0.14, two-tailed paired t-test; Figs. 1h and S6, Table S1), consistent with [back-]migration occurring before the European-East Asian split approximately 40kya.
    ..................

    The nature of this back-migrating population (“equally related to Han and French”) is speculative, but my guess would be something with affinities to one or more Upper Paleolithic Europeans on the one hand, and the ambiguous yet apparently deep “Eastern” ancestry that seems to comprise ~30% of Iran_N’s genome on the other. As for y-dna, how about DE and maybe LT (with L and D gradually accumulating in Near East/Turan/S Asia while E and T play the largest role in Africa). Remember those six basal E1b1b (and possibly one E1c) samples found in Pakistan_Udegram? Or Narasimhan’s finding that Indus Valley farmers were basal to Iran_N?

    Now, this Bayesian method attributed the following “Eurasian back-migration” admixture proportions to these African ethno-linguistic groups:
    Afroasiatic: 50% / Nilo-Saharan: 41% / Niger-Kordofanian: 35% / Mbuti-Biaka: 27% / Khoe-San: 21%
    (Afroasiatics also have substantial post-Holocene West Eurasian ancestry, not included above)
    To be clear, this calculator doesn't "prove" and isn't meant to prove the broader Out of America theory I posted. The calculator's purpose is to show that Africans can be modeled with much more Upper Paleolithic Eurasian ancestry than previously considered-- which opens up the way to some type of pre-Neolithic back-migration.

    I noticed a curious thing in the G25: representatives from all four of the main linguistic groups in Africa, are more closely related to Ust Ishim than to any other ancient Eurasians from outside of the Near East.-- see this Vahaduo image here.

    Now, why would this be the case? Maybe Ust Ishim's older age means it simply had less time to drift away from Africans? But Yoruba are theorized to have 13% Taforalt related ancestry, and Taforalt is ~40-55% Villabruna-like. More signficantly, Amhara have a lot of West Eurasian ancestry-- you can model them (crudely) as ~55% Natufian and ~45% Dinka-- and Natufians are 50-70% Villabruna/West Eurasian-like.

    What's going on here? Ust Ishim, of course, represents our sole real Upper Paleolithic Eurasian whose ancestral profile seems to predate the hypothesized East-West Eurasian split. So I thought, could I model the supposed Eurasian back-migration into Africa with this component, then create synthetic "basal" components to to compensate? It worked pretty well

    I present the experimental "deep" calculator with Ust Ishim forming a significant part of sub-Saharans' ancestry. This calculator also works well for most West Eurasians (except Balts, Finnics etc). If you're Nilo-Saharan, Niger-Congo, or South African, you can probably remove the latter 4 components (Villabruna, Barcin, "Caspian", and Yamnaya), which will just tend to produce slight over-fits. Habeshas don't really need Yamnaya either, that's in there mostly for Berbers, Arabs, Euros etc who want to use this.

    "Caspian" is a simple average between CHG and Iran_Hotu, since this type of ancestry seemed to travel as a package deal. "Ancient_Arabian" is just a slightly southern-shifted Natufian (distance 0.04). And the "Pre-Pastoralist" component actually seems to be about half-Eurasian itself-- it's not as basal as the West, Central, and East African components...

    EDIT: I just added samples that will make this a full calculator, for anyone with East or South Asian-related ancestry. "Sino-Tibetan" is a modified version of NPL_Chokopani I created, it peaks in the Qiang. Boisman is basically equivalent to RUS_DevilsGate.

    Code:
    RUS_Ust_Ishim,-0.050082,-0.11577,-0.090886,0.073644,0.027082,-0.018128,-0.00376,-0.004384,0.0452,0.010387,0.006008,-0.001798,0.000149,-0.003991,0.004614,-0.001724,-0.004955,0.004687,-0.005154,0.015382,0.006613,0.008532,-0.007641,-0.014942,0.007784
    Ancestral_N_African,-0.385,0.055,-0.12,-0.255,-0.035,-0.13,-0.145,0.02,0.22,0.003499,0.045,-0.0625,0.155,-0.085,0.135,-0.08,0,-0.105,-0.275,0.0389938,-0.085,-0.205,0.185,0.055,0.0215
    Basal_South_African,-0.77,0.105,0.0475,0.0185,-0.0065,0,0.32,-0.25,0.015,0.0115,0.0065,-0.095,-0.035,0.0075,0.0275,-0.04,0.055,0.495,-0.155,0.00275,-0.065,-0.01,0.0105,-0.0025,0
    Basal_Central-East_African,-0.8725,0.135,0.065,0.0295,-0.015,0.0175,0.495,-0.395,0.0125,0.0415,-0.0165,0.295,0.175,0.005,0.01,0,0.005,-0.0655,0.0225,0.01,0,-0.005,-0.0105,0.0145,0.0015
    Basal_Central-West_African,-0.915,0.1375,0.08,0.01,-0.01,0.0175,0.2525,-0.1925,-0.0515,0.0515,0.0155,-0.205,-0.065,0.001,0.005,-0.01,-0.002,-0.0425,0.01,-0.0075,-0.002,-0.0065,0,0.0085,-0.0115
    Basal_West_African,-1.0455,0.155,0.0945,0.011,-0.0235,0.0465,-0.05,0.0775,-0.1425,0.0475,0.005,0.0075,0.0155,0.0075,0.005,-0.004,0.0095,0.0125,0.045,-0.0205,0.0065,0.025,-0.0175,0.005,-0.0075
    Basal_East_African,-0.845,0.175,0.0475,-0.075,-0.0295,-0.01,-0.0065,0.02,0.115,-0.1935,-0.0495,0.0425,-0.075,-0.0065,0.0185,-0.035,0.0325,-0.0035,0.0385,-0.0495,-0.01,0.005,-0.025,0.0065,0
    Ancient_Arabian,0.0375,0.151314,-0.035072,-0.144705,0.018,-0.081157,-0.032196,-0.008769,0.105,0.013668,0.025,-0.045,0.086818,0.001789,0.010722,0.025,-0.020601,-0.008995,0,0.038018,0.007237,0.025,0.005916,0.003012,-0.0175
    Pre-Pastoralist,-0.395,0.345,0.0325,-0.275,-0.025,-0.075,-0.0375,0,0.175,-0.145,-0.005,-0.0155,0.035,0,0.035,-0.025,0.015,0,0.025,-0.0075,0,0,-0.01,0.025,-0.025
    ITA_Villabruna,0.121791,0.114755,0.1958592,0.184111,0.156337,0.060798,0.020211,0.035998,0.092445,0.018041,-0.016239,-0.016186,0.016947,-0.010046,0.054017,0.067356,0.000782,0.005448,-0.008422,0.053526,0.100073,0.010758,-0.048313,-0.163517,0.01928
    Yamnaya_RUS_Samara,0.1255849,0.089028,0.0426986,0.1153479,-0.0287232,0.0450564,0.0036033,-0.0025642,-0.0559032,-0.0728943,0.0018222,3.32e-05,-0.0026924,-0.0233041,0.0366141,0.0157633,-0.0012316,-0.0017879,-0.0038408,0.0137704,-0.0031749,0.0007557,0.0110649,0.0186102,-0.004537
    TUR_Barcin_N,0.1175998,0.180118,0.0035312,-0.101158,0.0510443,-0.0483875,-0.0043582,-0.0069334,0.0362287,0.0807473,0.0079718,0.0118803,-0.0234545,0.0004691,-0.0419807,-0.0101913,0.0233091,0.0019866,0.0136954,-0.0097489,-0.0142249,0.0057723,-0.0041232,-0.0031658,-0.0043437
    Caspian,0.0717085,0.083781,-0.1037085,0.020026,-0.099403,0.02008,0.014453,-0.0047305,-0.100114,-0.063874,0.0017865,0.0164105,-0.0264615,-0.006606,0.028637,0.0112035,0.014342,-0.012099,-0.005845,0.002689,0.017469,-0.0101395,0.000801,-0.0241,0.0117355
    <<<Africans and Near Easterners: remove the bold components below or "add distance column 0.25x"  on Vahaduo when using them to avoid overfitting>>>
    Baltic_LTU_Narva,0.1320347,0.1106928,0.1803263,0.1842187,0.1199712,0.0524315,0.0108103,0.0286143,0.0592778,-0.019074,-0.0055213,-0.0195077,0.0273783,0.0045643,0.0325728,0.0470032,0.0035857,0.0052997,-0.0064943,0.0436457,0.0663412,0.0077283,-0.0292508,-0.1139918,0.0110567
    POL_Globular_Amphora,0.1263436,0.1689961,0.0604725,-0.020045,0.0843053,-0.017849,0.0016865,0.0077916,0.0537897,0.0705682,0.0004012,0.0095386,-0.0161428,-0.0056101,-0.0098915,0.0004289,0.0045635,0.0068486,0.0062036,-0.000846,0.0091822,0.0078046,-0.013956,-0.0272541,0.0009228
    TWN_Hanben_3400BP,0.0155393,-0.4419318,-0.0435985,-0.0634906,0.1387417,0.064642,-0.0045365,-0.0134342,-0.0232624,-0.0208937,0.0412537,0.0034991,-0.002999,-0.0035123,0.0102085,0.0065775,-0.0008786,0.0056239,0.0068097,-0.0128105,0.0079044,-0.0258488,0.0022506,-0.0087176,-0.0486288
    KAZ_Botai_5200BP,0.102441,-0.0832737,0.0902577,0.1761437,-0.082169,0.0394163,-0.0436337,-0.050613,-0.029247,-0.081338,0.027281,-0.0073933,0.0240333,-0.0694997,0.0219413,0.0205953,-0.011604,-0.00114,0.0001677,-0.002835,-0.0347723,0.017765,0.023787,0.0040567,-0.0082623
    JPN_Jomon_3800BP,0.011003,-0.3440953,-0.0537398,0.0124893,0.038161,0.0139448,-0.0020758,-0.0015383,0.024577,0.0205622,-0.049718,-0.0068938,0.0096878,-0.0069958,-0.023819,-0.0154467,0.006454,0.0099242,0.0024722,-0.0060655,0.0639705,-0.0456895,0.0091615,0.0112062,-0.0994323
    RUS_Kolyma_Meso_9800BP,0.043253,-0.337156,0.087492,0.045543,-0.07663,-0.02259,-0.047707,-0.050767,-0.006545,-0.024055,0.005846,-0.006145,0.017988,-0.026424,-0.021851,-0.004243,0.001173,0.012162,0.018101,0.008879,0.004118,-0.023247,0.013311,0.009158,0.009221
    RUS_Boisman_MN_7000BP,0.0211091,-0.4479409,0.0741897,-0.0434875,-0.0510025,-0.0405914,0.0098064,0.0122512,0.0104122,0.0256788,-0.0416157,-0.001771,-0.0011488,0.0091707,-0.0088958,-0.0082809,-0.0038997,0.0051713,0.0127068,0.0145636,0.0032444,-0.0328355,-0.0255795,0.0015227,-0.0190509
    Nganassan,0.0476917,-0.4066181,0.1557885,0.0023902,-0.1594452,-0.0882129,0.0285066,0.0433367,0.0310876,0.0128477,0.1028569,0.0094115,-0.0040734,-0.0261619,-0.0219731,-0.0123307,-0.0010952,0.0134165,0.0268365,-0.0008505,0.0431363,-0.0118954,0.0336096,0.0003977,0.0135556
    Malaysia_LN_2550BP,0,-0.395041,-0.084098,-0.034561,0.154183,0.068049,-0.007285,-0.010615,-0.005522,-0.018224,0.090938,0.017834,-0.015163,0.006331,0.006922,-0.001061,-0.001695,-0.006841,-0.003394,0.019259,-0.01697,0.012984,-0.009737,0.00723,0.048379
    Sino-Tibetan,0.0185,-0.425,0,-0.055,0.035,0.011435,0.00658,0.011999,0,0.021139,-0.095,-0.006444,0.010109,-0.004679,-0.011401,0,0.011213,-0.001267,-0.009302,0,0.004991,0.029306,0.014,0.003615,0.031734
    PAK_Saidu_Sharif_H_o,0.036423,-0.091398,-0.168573,0.129847,-0.079707,0.063587,-0.005405,0.016845,0.051949,0.030069,-0.007632,0.001049,0.000297,0.004404,-0.000407,-0.017369,-0.002086,-0.002914,0.002891,0.008254,0.00861,0.004204,0.002465,0.006868,-0.005868
    Papuan,-0.0459844,-0.2410866,-0.2637584,0.3092414,0.2069308,-0.509589,-0.001974,0.0070152,-0.041273,-0.0119546,-0.018902,0.000869,0.0013974,-0.00311,0.0001628,-0.0003186,-0.0021906,-0.0018498,-0.001081,-0.0015256,0.0023458,0.0018052,0.0012324,0.0018314,0.0016048
    Last edited by K33; 07-31-2020 at 09:03 PM. Reason: added east asian components/note

  2. The Following 16 Users Say Thank You to K33 For This Useful Post:

     afbarwaaqo (09-18-2020),  Aha (07-31-2020),  Caius Agrippa (07-31-2020),  drobbah (07-30-2020),  E_M81_I3A (07-31-2020),  Greekscholar (07-31-2020),  Helves (08-18-2020),  Hurricane (07-31-2020),  JMcB (07-31-2020),  Kelmendasi (07-31-2020),  Korotyr (08-19-2020),  Magnetic (07-30-2020),  Nino90 (07-31-2020),  ph2ter (07-31-2020),  Riverman (09-18-2020),  ThaYamamoto (07-31-2020)

  3. #2
    Registered Users
    Posts
    801
    Sex
    Location
    yavrum doitschland
    Ethnicity
    Kurdish (from Turkey)
    Nationality
    Pokerland
    Y-DNA (P)
    E-L29
    mtDNA (M)
    H

    Kurdistan Turkey Kurdistan Kingdom Germany Bundeswappen
    Target: Magnetic_scaled
    Distance: 4.4739% / 0.04473868

    46.8 Caspian
    27.4 TUR_Barcin_N
    17.8 Ancient_Arabian
    7.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    0.6 RUS_Ust_Ishim

    it seems the Caspian has already Yamnaya in it
    50% Adygei + 50% Syrian @ 6,762
    50% Syrian + 50% Kumyk @ 8,297
    50% Samaritians + 50% Lezgin @ 7,032
    50% KurdishJewish + 50% Cirkassian @ 4,596
    50% Georgian_Abkhazia_170 + 50% Assyrian_2_30 @ 4,927
    50% Lebanese_Druze + 50% Adygei @ 7,321


    Kurdish people gallery/thread -

    Hidden Content

    Hidden Content

  4. #3
    Registered Users
    Posts
    559
    Sex
    Ethnicity
    Celto-Germanic, Near East
    Nationality
    Murcan
    Y-DNA (P)
    R1b-U152
    mtDNA (M)
    T2a1a

    United States of America
    Quote Originally Posted by Magnetic View Post
    Target: Magnetic_scaled
    Distance: 4.4739% / 0.04473868

    46.8 Caspian
    27.4 TUR_Barcin_N
    17.8 Ancient_Arabian
    7.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    0.6 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    I forgot to add: since "Caspian" is a simple average between CHG and Iran_Hotu, anyone from the Caucasus or Zagros area might want to split those components up to get better fits. (Chechens seem to be more CHG-shifted while Iranians and Kurds are more Iran_Hotu-shifted). But for Africans, Europeans, and Levantines, the Caspian component should fill in fine.

  5. #4
    Registered Users
    Posts
    801
    Sex
    Location
    yavrum doitschland
    Ethnicity
    Kurdish (from Turkey)
    Nationality
    Pokerland
    Y-DNA (P)
    E-L29
    mtDNA (M)
    H

    Kurdistan Turkey Kurdistan Kingdom Germany Bundeswappen
    Quote Originally Posted by K33 View Post
    I forgot to add: since "Caspian" is a simple average between CHG and Iran_Hotu, anyone from the Caucasus or Zagros area might want to split those components up to get better fits. (Chechens seem to be more CHG-shifted while Iranians and Kurds are more Iran_Hotu-shifted). But for Africans, Europeans, and Levantines, the Caspian component should fill in fine.
    Target: Magnetic_scaled
    Distance: 4.1775% / 0.04177530

    33.4 IRN_HotuIIIb_Meso
    30.6 TUR_Barcin_N
    15.2 Ancient_Arabian
    13.8 GEO_CHG
    7.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    50% Adygei + 50% Syrian @ 6,762
    50% Syrian + 50% Kumyk @ 8,297
    50% Samaritians + 50% Lezgin @ 7,032
    50% KurdishJewish + 50% Cirkassian @ 4,596
    50% Georgian_Abkhazia_170 + 50% Assyrian_2_30 @ 4,927
    50% Lebanese_Druze + 50% Adygei @ 7,321


    Kurdish people gallery/thread -

    Hidden Content

    Hidden Content

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Magnetic For This Useful Post:

     K33 (07-30-2020)

  7. #5
    Gold Class Member
    Posts
    996
    Sex
    Omitted
    Ethnicity
    Somali
    Nationality
    Canadian
    Y-DNA (P)
    E-BY75676
    mtDNA (M)
    L0a1d
    Y-DNA (M)
    T-FGC92488

    Somaliland Ethiopia Adal Sultanate Yemen Canada
    Target: Mother_scaled
    Distance: 2.4591% / 0.02459076
    46.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    34.6 Pre-Pastoralist
    15.6 Basal_East_African
    2.0 Ancestral_N_African
    1.4 ITA_Villabruna

    Target: Drobbah_scaled
    Distance: 2.4471% / 0.02447113
    46.6 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    32.4 Pre-Pastoralist
    17.2 Basal_East_African
    2.6 Ancestral_N_African
    1.2 ITA_Villabruna

    Target: Father_scaled
    Distance: 2.6744% / 0.02674382
    46.2 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    33.4 Pre-Pastoralist
    17.0 Basal_East_African
    3.0 Ancestral_N_African
    0.4 ITA_Villabruna
    Drobbah_scaled
    Target: Drobbah_scaled
    Distance: 4.2508% / 0.04250752
    52.2 Sudanese
    19.6 Proto-Natufian_(simulated)
    13.6 MAR_Taforalt
    11.0 Yemenite_Al_Bayda
    3.6 ETH_4500BP

    Distance: 1.2698% / 0.01269848 | ADC: 0.25x
    31.0 KEN_Pastoral_N
    26.4 KEN_Pastoral_N_Elmenteitan
    18.4 TZA_PN
    12.0 KEN_HyraxHill_2300BP
    10.6 KEN_Pastoral_IA

  8. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to drobbah For This Useful Post:

     Elias.99 (07-31-2020),  K33 (07-30-2020),  SWAHILLI_PRINCE16 (07-31-2020)

  9. #6
    Registered Users
    Posts
    559
    Sex
    Ethnicity
    Celto-Germanic, Near East
    Nationality
    Murcan
    Y-DNA (P)
    R1b-U152
    mtDNA (M)
    T2a1a

    United States of America
    Quote Originally Posted by Magnetic View Post
    Target: Magnetic_scaled
    Distance: 4.1775% / 0.04177530

    33.4 IRN_HotuIIIb_Meso
    30.6 TUR_Barcin_N
    15.2 Ancient_Arabian
    13.8 GEO_CHG
    7.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    One more thing: add Saidu_Sharif_outlier and possibly Mongolian to sop up trace ENA ancestry and your fit should get way better. I tested this extensively mostly on African samples, not Iranics!

    PAK_Saidu_Sharif_H_o,0.036423,-0.091398,-0.168573,0.129847,-0.079707,0.063587,-0.005405,0.016845,0.051949,0.030069,-0.007632,0.001049,0.000297,0.004404,-0.000407,-0.017369,-0.002086,-0.002914,0.002891,0.008254,0.00861,0.004204,0.0024 65,0.006868,-0.005868

  10. #7
    Gold Class Member
    Posts
    996
    Sex
    Omitted
    Ethnicity
    Somali
    Nationality
    Canadian
    Y-DNA (P)
    E-BY75676
    mtDNA (M)
    L0a1d
    Y-DNA (M)
    T-FGC92488

    Somaliland Ethiopia Adal Sultanate Yemen Canada
    In another thread I differentiated the Oromos between those that are more pristine and those that are probably Ethio-Semitic assimilated people during the 16th century Oromo migrations.It seems the Ethio-Semites are the only ones getting Ancient Arabian although greatly reduced, they usually score around the 20%+ of Arabian ancestry.This is a very interesting calculator, thank you K33!




    Target: Pre-Pastoralist
    Distance: 37.3288% / 0.37328803
    56.8 Dinka
    43.2 Levant_Natufian
    Last edited by drobbah; 07-31-2020 at 12:08 AM.

  11. The Following User Says Thank You to drobbah For This Useful Post:

     K33 (07-31-2020)

  12. #8
    Registered Users
    Posts
    801
    Sex
    Location
    yavrum doitschland
    Ethnicity
    Kurdish (from Turkey)
    Nationality
    Pokerland
    Y-DNA (P)
    E-L29
    mtDNA (M)
    H

    Kurdistan Turkey Kurdistan Kingdom Germany Bundeswappen
    Quote Originally Posted by K33 View Post
    One more thing: add Saidu_Sharif_outlier and possibly Mongolian to sop up trace ENA ancestry and your fit should get way better. I tested this extensively mostly on African samples, not Iranics!

    PAK_Saidu_Sharif_H_o,0.036423,-0.091398,-0.168573,0.129847,-0.079707,0.063587,-0.005405,0.016845,0.051949,0.030069,-0.007632,0.001049,0.000297,0.004404,-0.000407,-0.017369,-0.002086,-0.002914,0.002891,0.008254,0.00861,0.004204,0.0024 65,0.006868,-0.005868
    no . saidu sharif is irrelevant . I added it and scored almost none

    mongoloid I score only a little too

    and iranics are not a uniform thing btw . but nevermind

    the calc is fun either way thank you
    50% Adygei + 50% Syrian @ 6,762
    50% Syrian + 50% Kumyk @ 8,297
    50% Samaritians + 50% Lezgin @ 7,032
    50% KurdishJewish + 50% Cirkassian @ 4,596
    50% Georgian_Abkhazia_170 + 50% Assyrian_2_30 @ 4,927
    50% Lebanese_Druze + 50% Adygei @ 7,321


    Kurdish people gallery/thread -

    Hidden Content

    Hidden Content

  13. #9
    Registered Users
    Posts
    559
    Sex
    Ethnicity
    Celto-Germanic, Near East
    Nationality
    Murcan
    Y-DNA (P)
    R1b-U152
    mtDNA (M)
    T2a1a

    United States of America
    Quote Originally Posted by drobbah View Post
    Target: Mother_scaled
    Distance: 2.4591% / 0.02459076
    46.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    34.6 Pre-Pastoralist
    15.6 Basal_East_African
    2.0 Ancestral_N_African
    1.4 ITA_Villabruna

    Target: Drobbah_scaled
    Distance: 2.4471% / 0.02447113
    46.6 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    32.4 Pre-Pastoralist
    17.2 Basal_East_African
    2.6 Ancestral_N_African
    1.2 ITA_Villabruna

    Target: Father_scaled
    Distance: 2.6744% / 0.02674382
    46.2 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    33.4 Pre-Pastoralist
    17.0 Basal_East_African
    3.0 Ancestral_N_African
    0.4 ITA_Villabruna
    Nice! To elaborate on the pre-Pastoralist component, I noticed that on PCA this fell somewhere somewhere between the Ancient Arabian and the East_African component (which peaks in KEN_Kakapel_900 BP and Mursi). I tried to create a Basal Eurasian component-- and I was able to-- but it only looked right for Natufians, Arabians, and East Africans. I was unable to model TUR_Barcin with the BE component, and so Barcin has to stay in as an anchor. I'm not as confident in this component but just to show: you can remove the Ancient_Arabian AND Pre-Pastoralist components from your Sources, and substitute this instead:

    Code:
    Basal_Eurasian,0.075,0.375,-0.46085,-0.85,-0.205,-0.41,-0.11175,-0.1551,0.1948,-0.035,0.1534,-0.055,0.2264,0.0495,-0.1036,-0.08,-0.03945,0.0095,0,0.0185,-0.185,0.0495,0.1187,0.395,-0.0595
    You should wind up with similar fits, with Villabruna, BE, and Basal_East absorbing additional ancestry. But this Basal Eurasian component is not "midway" between the Upper Paleolithic Eurasians and the Basal Africans-- it is every bit as "basal" as the West or South African components-- just in a totally different direction. Ust Ishim sort of plots midway between Basal Eurasian and Basal African, in other words. But like I said, I'm not totally satisfied with this Basal Eurasian target, so I left it off in favor of the Ancient_Arabian and Pre-Pastoralist tandem.

    When they were first discovered, Natufians were thought to have ~50% Basal Eurasian ancestry, and Barcin something like 44%. Then in an updated paper it was claimed Barcin only had 14% BE (so by extension Natufians would have around 15-18%. Finally in the Dzudzuana paper they pegged Natufians at ~32% BE (including the BE within Taforalt), with Barcin at 26-28% BE. My theory on what's going on with these huge estimate differences, is that since Ust_Ishim and Basal African/Basal Eurasian have no particular affinity to either East or West Eurasians, the commingling of Basal + Ust Ishim ancestries (especially if they admixed in the Paleolithic) is making it hard for geneticists to separate them.

    The same thing with the Shum Laka paper: Yoruba is supposed to have 69% - 88% "Basal West African" ancestry, which they say split only 60-80kya from Eurasians, then 10-29% Ghost Modern ancestry (a huge range! almost invalidating the results ipso facto) which split ~300 kya, + minor archaic (split 500-700kya). My calculator is assuming that Ust Ishim is nested within the Basal West African component described in the Shum Laka paper-- so instead of one component with a split time 60-80kya, Yoruba is ~35% Ust Ishim (which split from Eurasians maybe 40kya), + the Basal West African+Ghost+Archaic components (with a split nearly as deep as the "Central" and "Southern" African components they modeled). Do the math-- either way, you wind up with the same aggregate "split time" of ~150kya for Yoruba.





    Shum Laka model #2 for Yoruba: 69% Basal West African (~70kya split) + 29% Ghost Modern (300kya split) + 2% Ghost Archaic (600kya (?) split) = 147kya aggregate split time from "French"

    My calculator for Yoruba: 36.8% Ust Ishim/Eurasian (~40kya split) + 6.6% ANA (150kya (?) split) + 56.6% Basal_West_African (220 kya (?) split) = 149k aggregate split time from "French"
    Last edited by K33; 07-31-2020 at 12:39 AM.

  14. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to K33 For This Useful Post:

     blackflash16 (07-31-2020),  drobbah (07-31-2020),  Korotyr (08-19-2020),  ThaYamamoto (07-31-2020)

  15. #10
    Gold Class Member
    Posts
    996
    Sex
    Omitted
    Ethnicity
    Somali
    Nationality
    Canadian
    Y-DNA (P)
    E-BY75676
    mtDNA (M)
    L0a1d
    Y-DNA (M)
    T-FGC92488

    Somaliland Ethiopia Adal Sultanate Yemen Canada
    Quote Originally Posted by K33 View Post
    Nice! To elaborate on the pre-Pastoralist component, I noticed that on PCA this fell somewhere somewhere between the Ancient Arabian and the East_African component (which peaks in KEN_Kakapel_900 BP and Mursi). I tried to create a Basal Eurasian component-- and I was able to-- but it only looked right for Natufians, Arabians, and East Africans. I was unable to model TUR_Barcin with the BE component, and so Barcin has to stay in as an anchor. I'm not as confident in this component but just to show: you can remove the Ancient_Arabian AND Pre-Pastoralist components from your Sources, and substitute this instead:

    Code:
    Basal_Eurasian,0.075,0.375,-0.46085,-0.85,-0.205,-0.41,-0.11175,-0.1551,0.1948,-0.035,0.1534,-0.055,0.2264,0.0495,-0.1036,-0.08,-0.03945,0.0095,0,0.0185,-0.185,0.0495,0.1187,0.395,-0.0595
    You should wind up with similar fits, with Villabruna, BE, and Basal_East absorbing additional ancestry. But this Basal Eurasian component is not "midway" between the Upper Paleolithic Eurasians and the Basal Africans-- it is every bit as "basal" as the West or South African components-- just in a totally different direction. Ust Ishim sort of plots midway between Basal Eurasian and Basal African, in other words. But like I said, I'm not totally satisfied with this Basal Eurasian target, so I left it off in favor of the Ancient_Arabian and Pre-Pastoralist tandem.

    When they were first discovered, Natufians were thought to have ~50% Basal Eurasian ancestry, and Barcin something like 44%. Then in an updated paper it was claimed Barcin only had 14% BE (so by extension Natufians would have around 15-18%. Finally in the Dzudzuana paper they pegged Natufians at ~32% BE (including the BE within Taforalt), with Barcin at 26-28% BE. My theory on what's going on with these huge estimate differences, is that since Ust_Ishim and Basal African/Basal Eurasian have no particular affinity to either East or West Eurasians, the commingling of Basal + Ust Ishim ancestries (especially if they admixed in the Paleolithic) is making it hard for geneticists to separate them.

    The same thing with the Shum Laka paper: Yoruba is supposed to have 69% - 88% "Basal West African" ancestry, which they say split only 60-80kya from Eurasians, then 10-29% Ghost Modern ancestry (a huge range! almost invalidating the results ipso facto) which split ~300 kya, + minor archaic (split 500-700kya). My calculator is assuming that Ust Ishim is nested within the Basal West African component described in the Shum Laka paper-- so instead of one component with a split time 60-80kya, Yoruba is ~35% Ust Ishim (which split from Eurasians maybe 40kya), + the Basal West African+Ghost+Archaic components (which collectively split more like 225-250kya-- similar to the "Central" and "Southern" African components they modeled). Do the math-- either way, you wind up with the same aggregate "split time" of 150-180kya for Yoruba.




    Target: Mother_scaled
    Distance: 4.0545% / 0.04054487
    36.4 Basal_East_African
    26.8 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    20.6 ITA_Villabruna
    10.4 Basal_Eurasian
    3.8 Ancestral_N_African
    2.0 Caspian

    Target: Drobbah_scaled
    Distance: 3.7158% / 0.03715764
    36.6 Basal_East_African
    28.8 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    19.4 ITA_Villabruna
    9.8 Basal_Eurasian
    4.2 Ancestral_N_African
    1.2 Caspian

    Target: Father_scaled
    Distance: 3.9341% / 0.03934126
    37.0 Basal_East_African
    27.6 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    19.2 ITA_Villabruna
    10.0 Basal_Eurasian
    4.8 Ancestral_N_African
    1.4 Caspian


    Cushitic PN comparisons
     

    Target: KEN_Early_Pastoral_N:I12533
    Distance: 4.6317% / 0.04631691
    31.4 Basal_East_African
    26.0 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    22.6 ITA_Villabruna
    12.8 Basal_Eurasian
    3.6 Caspian
    2.8 Ancestral_N_African
    0.8 Basal_South_African

    Target: KEN_Pastoral_N_o:I8759
    Distance: 5.2281% / 0.05228057
    34.0 Basal_East_African
    28.6 ITA_Villabruna
    23.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    12.2 Basal_Eurasian
    1.8 Ancestral_N_African

    Target: KEN_Pastoral_N:I8830
    Distance: 5.4849% / 0.05484928
    37.8 Basal_East_African
    21.8 ITA_Villabruna
    21.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    11.2 Basal_Eurasian
    4.0 Ancestral_N_African
    2.2 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    1.6 Caspian

    Target: KEN_Pastoral_N_Elmenteitan:I12394
    Distance: 4.3648% / 0.04364763
    35.2 Basal_East_African
    28.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    23.4 ITA_Villabruna
    11.2 Basal_Eurasian
    1.0 Ancestral_N_African
    0.8 Basal_South_African

    Target: KEN_HyraxHill_2300BP:HYR002
    Distance: 4.8553% / 0.04855304
    35.0 Basal_East_African
    24.8 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    21.8 ITA_Villabruna
    10.2 Basal_Eurasian
    5.8 Ancestral_N_African
    2.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara





    Edit: Added WHG just to see if the fits improved and they only slightly improved for me and my father:

    Target: Father_scaled
    Distance: 3.9120% / 0.03911988
    37.2 Basal_East_African
    27.6 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    16.4 WHG
    10.0 Basal_Eurasian
    4.6 Ancestral_N_African
    3.0 ITA_Villabruna
    1.2 Caspian

    Target: Mother_scaled
    Distance: 4.0545% / 0.04054487
    36.4 Basal_East_African
    26.8 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    20.6 ITA_Villabruna
    10.4 Basal_Eurasian
    3.8 Ancestral_N_African
    2.0 Caspian

    Target: Drobbah_scaled
    Distance: 3.7071% / 0.03707095
    36.6 Basal_East_African
    28.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    12.6 WHG
    9.6 Basal_Eurasian
    7.0 ITA_Villabruna
    4.4 Ancestral_N_African
    1.4 Caspian

    Target: Somali
    Distance: 3.5283% / 0.03528345
    36.2 Basal_East_African
    27.4 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    20.8 ITA_Villabruna
    10.2 Basal_Eurasian
    4.0 Ancestral_N_African
    1.4 Caspian

    Target: Somali_Kenya
    Distance: 3.1911% / 0.03191066
    38.2 Basal_East_African
    28.2 RUS_Ust_Ishim
    19.6 ITA_Villabruna
    9.8 Basal_Eurasian
    3.6 Ancestral_N_African
    0.6 Caspian
    Last edited by drobbah; 07-31-2020 at 12:31 AM.
    Drobbah_scaled
    Target: Drobbah_scaled
    Distance: 4.2508% / 0.04250752
    52.2 Sudanese
    19.6 Proto-Natufian_(simulated)
    13.6 MAR_Taforalt
    11.0 Yemenite_Al_Bayda
    3.6 ETH_4500BP

    Distance: 1.2698% / 0.01269848 | ADC: 0.25x
    31.0 KEN_Pastoral_N
    26.4 KEN_Pastoral_N_Elmenteitan
    18.4 TZA_PN
    12.0 KEN_HyraxHill_2300BP
    10.6 KEN_Pastoral_IA

  16. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to drobbah For This Useful Post:

     K33 (07-31-2020),  SWAHILLI_PRINCE16 (07-31-2020)

Page 1 of 10 123 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 15
    Last Post: 01-30-2017, 09:51 PM
  2. Replies: 29
    Last Post: 07-04-2016, 08:26 PM
  3. Best GEDmatch Autosomal Calculator For West Eurasians
    By J Man in forum Autosomal (auDNA)
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-26-2013, 10:57 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •