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Thread: L51 & Sub Clades: Area of Origination Poll for those willing to go out on a limb

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    L51 & Sub Clades: Area of Origination Poll for those willing to go out on a limb

    This poll is not for most of you, because what if you're wrong! People will later quote you and throw it back in your face...the public ridicule would be unbearable

    But seriously, this is not an official poll because I want people to have the option to update their opinions in this thread as more data become available.

    We have a lot of knowledgeable people on here who have read and studied this topic from various angles for years. Some with archaeological backgrounds, other with linguistic knowledge, others with genetic knowledge etc. Some are a "jack of all trades and master of none"

    If you put down your choices and then another member posts something you didn't consider when you first answered, feel free to update your answers. It won't be held against you if you decide to update choices after becoming more informed or convinced of another's point of view.

    Regardless, there is this theory the that "wisdom of the crowd can be spot on"; meaning the average of multiple people making guesses will be close to the truth (especially informed ones)
    A video illustrating this idea


    So once we get enough opinions/guesses I will take an average and see where we come out.

    Based on your current knowledge, What is your best guess for the location of the origin of:

    R-L51
    L51>L52, P310, P311
    L51>L52, P310, P311>L11, L151
    L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151>P312
    L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151>U106
    L51>L52, P310, P311>L11/L151> S1194

    To make it easier to tabulate, Pick a zone (A-E) for each haplogroup in bold above (you can use the same zone multiple times)


    A=Iberia, most of France, British Isles
    B=Mouth of the Rhine to the Mouth of the Oder River (Low countries, Eastern France including Rhone Valley, Germany, Switzerland, Western Czechia, Western Austria, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Western Sweden)
    C=Mouth of Oder to Baltic/Balkan Countries (Eastern Czech Rep, Eastern Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Sweden, Finland, Balkans, Belarus, Far Western Ukraine)
    D=North of the Black Sea (Moldova, Most of Ukraine, Large part of European Russia)
    E=Further east

    For example (these are not my actual choices but just showing format to use)
    L51=A (you believe L51 originated in Zone A)
    L52=B
    L11=C
    P312=D
    U106=E
    S1194=C

    Give it some serious thought before you answer and feel free to explain your choices.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 04-21-2020 at 03:57 AM.
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  3. #2
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    L51=E

    L52=E

    L151=D

    P312=C

    U106=C

    S1194=C

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  5. #3
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    L51=E

    L52=E (toughest one)

    L151=B

    P312=B

    U106=B

    S1194=no idear but i'd say B

    w'ere speaking about TMRCA right ?
    Last edited by Dieu; 04-21-2020 at 12:52 AM.

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    Since we have found an Afanasievo sample which is L-52+, that's pretty much enough evidence to me the L-51+ mutation most likely took place in the steppes. The same goes of course for L-52+. As for the rest, I'm still in doubt.
    Last edited by Piquerobi; 04-21-2020 at 12:49 AM.

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    L51=D
    L52=D
    L11=C
    P312=B
    U106=B
    S1194=B
    YDNA: R1b-BY50830 Stepney, London, UK George Wood b. 1782 English <-> Bavarian cluster
    maternal-gf YDNA: ?? Gurr, James ~1740, Smarden, Kent, England.
    maternal-gm YDNA: R1b-P311+ Beech, John Richard b. 1780, Lewes, England
    maternal-ggf YDNA R1b-U106 Thomas, Edward b 1854, Sittingbourne, Kent
    paternal-ggf YDNA: R1b-Z17901. Gould, John Somerset England 1800s.
    paternal-ggf YDNA: R1b-L48. Scott, William Hamilton Ireland(?) 1800s

    other:
    Welch: early 1800s E-M84 Kent, England.

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    Hard to be precise.

    L51=D/E

    L52=D/E

    L151=D

    P312=D/C

    U106=D/C

    S1194=C (Haven't given that one much thought, so that's totally a shot in the dark.)

    Don't think A is even in the running. B barely is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dieu View Post
    w'ere speaking about TMRCA right ?
    I speaking of formation...where it began.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    S1194=C (Haven't given that one much thought, so that's totally a shot in the dark.)
    It is mostly present in countries from Northern Europe, Poland, Germany, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, for example. Their Family Tree DNA page has information about it:

    https://www.familytreedna.com/groups...out/background

    Iain McDonald, back in 2017, cited its patterns, along with those of R1b-U-106, as evidence for R1b-P311 taking a Northern route rather than the Danubian one:

    In a wider context, the lack of ancient U106 in the Rhine or Danube valleys, and the lack of haplogroup R and Yamnaya at-DNA in the Globular Amphorae culture suggests the route taken by our common P311 forebears was north of the Carpathians, probably with the Corded Ware culture. I keep changing my mind about how secure this result is, as new data comes in, but I think the latest data add a lot of evidence against the Danubian route. The samborek (Poland) results from before 2672 BC may confirm this. One possibility is that P311 was a coastal culture, which passed around the Baltic coast, and didn't really settle down on land until it reached the Danish Isles. I wouldn't say there's any real evidence for this, necessarily, just that it's an option.

    Presumably the raw data will become available on full publication on the articles, at which point it will be interesting to see where any P311xP312xU106 results lie, and whether any further sub-clades can be determined. The distribution of S1194 seems to largely reflect the distribution of U106, which is consistent with them both representing the point from which P311 spread. The rapid uptake of P312 into the Bell Beaker culture, and its rapid spread, means that its modern distribution is more representative of its own founder effect, rather than the P311 founder effect.
    https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/...messages/49348

    This is a Family Tree DNA page on R1b-S14328 (which is my own y-DNA!), a subclade of S1194:

    https://www.familytreedna.com/public...ame=ycolorized

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    My choices and current rationale
    L51=E
    L52=D
    L11/L151=C
    P312=C
    U106=C
    S1194=C

    Per Rocca
    Aesch25 is the only Aesch sample that plots with Corded Ware and has the highest steppe ancestry (79.8%) of any sample in the entire study.
    This Swiss paper says the following
    Comparing our newly analyzed individuals from Switzerland with ancient genomes from Great Britain, Iberia, and Germany2,9,21 we modeled the arrival time of the YAM-related ancestry in the different broadly defined European regions (Fig. 2b, see “Methods“). While our models indicate that the proportions of the YAM-related ancestry peaks earlier in the Swiss dataset (around 2750 BCE) compared with the comparative datasets from refs. 2,9,21 (around 2600 BCE), these differences fall within the uncertainty of the analysis (Supplementary Fig. 6), so may be considered suggestive of an earlier arrival of steppe-related ancestry, but not conclusive. We also caution that differences are likely affected by uneven sampling through time in the three different datasets, and so expect the precision of this analysis to improve with denser temporal sampling in the future.
    The second distinct cluster is shifted towards the individuals associated with the “Yamnaya” complex, similar to other European groups younger than 2700 BCE,
    ...individuals from younger sites after ~2700 BCE exhibit substantial amounts of ancestry related to YAM.
    So an L51 man with high steppe ancestry arrived in Switzerland no earlier than 2700 BC. Did he come from the SCG area to the North or from the East? If from the SCG area, then that culture begins approx 100 years earlier (2800 BC). I mentioned this often but I tend to go with McDonald's dates for P312 and U106 which are

    Clade Best guess 95% confidence interval
    R-P312 3079 BC (3764 BC — 2524 BC)
    R-U106 3022 BC (3699 BC — 2465 BC)
    P312 has to be quite a bit older than 2542 BC because RISE563 (U152+) is dated to 2572-2512 BC.

    If McDonald's best guesses for P312 and U106 are approx 3050 BC, then that means L11/L151 is at least that old...say no earlier than 3100 BC for L11/L151 formation. If these dates are accurate and Steppe didn't arrive until establishment of SCG which started in 2800 BC, then by default, L51, L52, L11/L151, U106, P312, S1194 would have formed to the east of Zone B.

    The tough question then is how far east do we go.

    There is talk of unpublished P312 in Bohemia. Based on what has been said and released, I'm guessing this P312 in Bohemia is ~2900 BC (I could be wrong on this guess)

    Starting with the L11/L151 subclades (P312, U106, S1194), lacking ancient dna and based on present day distribution with an affinity to the Baltic region, I could see them forming in Zone C. But it wouldn't surprise me if we later find pre 2700 BC ancient samples in Zone D

    So what about L11/L151? I'm hesitant to go too far east because of subclade L51>PF7589. Not aware of any ancient samples, but of the 345 samples in the FTDNA database, 1 is from Turkey, but of the rest, none are further east than Poland (2 samples). Database currently has samples from Poland, Croatia, Czech Rep, Hungary, Sweden, with most non British Isles samples from Germany and Switzerland, Italy and further west.
    L11/L151 could have been in an area stretching from Latvia/Lithuania down towards the Black Sea (includes zone C &D). If forced to chose, I'll go with C.

    So what about L52? Since it was close call for me on L11/L151, I'll go with zone D

    Finally L51. We know L23 was in Zone E (Samara bend ancient dna) and it's found in ancient dna to the east in Afanasievo in last of 4th millenium BC, so I'll go with E
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 04-21-2020 at 10:09 PM.
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    Continuing this train of thought from my post above, most sources I can find have Corded Ware Culture starting around 2900 BC, with a few saying 3000 BC. If McDonald’s best guesses for formation dates for P312 and U106 are close, then it implies they are older than CWC and thus L11/L151 are as well. Y dna line origins don’t necessarily follow cultural origins, but if, in this case they do, then where would we look for the Origin of CWC. At some point Steppe ancestry has to be introduced into CWC, IIRC Aesch25 had 79% Steppe ancestry.

    Somewhere north of the Black Sea coast would be a logical choice (zone D). Hence why I said in my previous post
    Starting with the L11/L151 subclades (P312, U106, S1194), lacking ancient dna and based on present day distribution with an affinity to the Baltic region, I could see them forming in Zone C.
    Starting with the L11/L151 subclades (P312, U106, S1194), lacking ancient dna and based on present day distribution with an affinity to the Baltic region, I could see them forming in Zone C. But it wouldn't surprise me if we later find pre 2700 BC ancient samples in Zone D. But it wouldn't surprise me if we later find pre 2700 BC ancient samples in Zone D
    The Yamnaya culture started in 3300 BC according some sources. So it would be old enough for L11/L151 to pick up Steppe ancestry before proceeding to CWC. That’s only one possibility though. The Steppe ancestry could be pre Yamnaya e.g. Sredny Stog culture (4500-3500 BC). In this scenario maybe it was L52 that started in SS before moving north in Forest Steppe, where L11/L151 would later appear before ending up in CWC.

    Of course there are probably other possibilities for how Steppe gets into CWC.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 04-23-2020 at 06:31 PM.
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