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Thread: Ancestry DNA Update of Ethnicity Estimate

  1. #31
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    I only just found out about the update. I'm reasonably happy with it, and consider it about as accurate as the last update, although both had quirks (and were largely better for me than my sister). My results are:

    33% Scotland (like for many others, it seems, way too high, and seems to include some of my English -- I likely have some Scottish ancestry mixed in with my Ulster and English anyway or within my colonial American, but no paper trail)

    23% Wales (I do have Welsh, but not that much to my knowledge, so I would assume it includes English, although again some of my colonial families aren't traced over the ocean yet)

    17% German Europe -- completely consistent with my own estimates

    13% Sweden -- 12.5% on paper, so can't complain

    12% England & NW Europe -- quite low, but again I bet it ended up in Scotland and Wales

    2% Ireland -- who knows, more like 10% or so on paper, but Ulster, so likely some is in the Scotland category

    My sister:

    49% England & NW Europe -- closer to my paper trail

    17% Scotland

    12% Norway -- she tends to get lots of Norway vs Sweden, whereas I don't. Sweden is correct.

    10% Ireland

    5% Wales

    3% France -- this is actually about right, and we have matches who trace to the French immigrant ancestors, who went to Ohio around 1800

    2% Germanic Europe -- way low, as was her prior update

    2% Sweden -- same, but if you add it to Norway it's about right
    Last edited by msmarjoribanks; 09-16-2020 at 11:59 PM.

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  3. #32
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    Old results
    Ireland & Scotland 41%
    England, Wales & Northwestern Europe 28%
    Germanic Europe 11%
    Sweden 10%
    Norway 7%
    France 3%

    New results
    Ireland 23%
    England and Northwest Europe: 23%
    Scotland: 23%
    Germanic Europe: 18%
    Sweden: 10%
    Norway: 3%

    I'm a little bit pleased that my Germanic Europe has increased but it's still far too low. If you combine it with my Sweden and Norway percentages, it would reasonably match my paper trail German. I have no Scottish in my paper trail so I'm assuming it's Northern English mixed with Irish. This update has made me a little more skeptical of regional results and that 23andMe has gotten it right by putting British and Irish in the same grouping.

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  5. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marv View Post
    Attachment 39635

    My total Indigenous Americas went up to 2%, which I wasn't expecting coming from AncestryDNA.(It's funny how Myheritage pegged me at (initially 2.6%) 2.4% Amerindian, specifically Mesoamerican & Andean via AncestryDNA raw data right from the beginning.)
    I'm intrigued by the 1% Yucatan Peninsula, specifically. That's Mayan country, covering the far edges of Southeast Mexico (peaking in the state of Yucatan itself), Guatemala, and Belize. The Mayans could have made contact with the tribes in the USA, via the Gulf Coast, and came into contact with an ancestor living in the southern states near the coast. Either that, or "Yucatan" is a proxy for some of the tribes that once inhabited those southern states in proximity to the Gulf Coast, such as the Biloxi and Choctaw, and that my indigenous ancestry is partially rooted in one of those tribes.
    We have a little bit of Native American ancestry my family, and we're lucky to know specifically which groups these were. My father (and his siblings) have three 4x great grandparents, two of who were Saulteaux, (Ojibwe) and one of who was Assiniboine (Sioux) from what is now Manitoba.
    My father: North America 2%, Yucatan 1%
    Sibling L: North America 2%, Yucatan 1%
    Sibling J: North America 3%, Yucatan 1%

    Myself and my cousin didn't get any Yucatan peninsula percentages, but it was interesting that my father and both his siblings who tested with AncestryDNA did. Given the geographical distance between Manitoba and the Yucatan peninsula, I think that these two reference population groups are very similar and difficult to distinguish, rather than it being reflective of some central America to the Canadian prairies migration.
    Paper trail ancestry to the best of my knowledge:
    English (possibly containing some Welsh ancestry) 31.25%, Scottish 17.96%, Scotch-Irish 12.5%, Eastern German 12.5%, Eastern European (Likely Polish possibly including Romanian) 12.5%, French 7.81%, Native American (Saulteaux and Assiniboine) 2.34%, and Colonial American, 3.125%, which cannot be traced with certainty. With certainty, there is Dutch (at least 1.36%) and some English.

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  7. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by msmarjoribanks View Post
    I only just found out about the update. I'm reasonably happy with it, and consider it about as accurate as the last update, although both had quirks (and were largely better for me than my sister). My results are:

    33% Scotland (like for many others, it seems, way too high, and seems to include some of my English -- I likely have some Scottish ancestry mixed in with my Ulster and English anyway or within my colonial American, but no paper trail)

    23% Wales (I do have Welsh, but not that much to my knowledge, so I would assume it includes English, although again some of my colonial families aren't traced over the ocean yet)
    May I ask what ranges/confidence intervals you are getting for Scotland And Wales?

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  9. #35
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    I don't get why my Germanic range is 0-27% (12% in results) and my Scotland is 0-29% (29% in results). On 23andMe I am 22.7% French & German with two regions under Germany - this is more accurate as I am 20-25% German. My only explanation for Scotland is it having to relate to Scots-Irish ancestry that I can only assume I most likely have. My England & NW Europe is 48% (43-48%).
    Last edited by aafusc2988; 09-17-2020 at 02:57 PM.
    AncestryDNA: 48% England & Northwestern Europe, 29% Scotland, 12% Germanic Europe, 11% Ireland
    23andMe (v5.2 - 50% Confidence phased with 2 parents): 53.9% British & Irish, 22.7% French & German, 3.1% Scandinavian,
    17.2% Broadly Northwestern European, 1.5% Spanish & Portuguese, 0.4% Broadly Southern European,
    0.5% Broadly European, 0.2% Senegambian & Guinean, 0.2% Angolan & Congolese, 0.2% North African, 0.1% Unassigned

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  11. #36
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    I don't have any 0% in my ranges, but I am wondering about how they have come to the conclusion of their results. Do the people with English ancestry have a 0% in their range for Scottish ancestry?

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  13. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by jadegreg View Post
    May I ask what ranges/confidence intervals you are getting for Scotland And Wales?
    Scotland 33% (0-33)
    Wales 23% (11-46)

    Thanks for asking as I hadn't looked at that.

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  15. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nqp15hhu View Post
    I don't have any 0% in my ranges, but I am wondering about how they have come to the conclusion of their results. Do the people with English ancestry have a 0% in their range for Scottish ancestry?
    I have English ancestry and didn't get 0% in my Scotland range

    38% Scotland (lower confidence 4%, upper confidence 41%)
    25% Ireland (lower confidence 0%, upper confidence 31%)
    21% England (lower confidence 0%, upper confidence 21%)
    16% Wales (lower confidence 0%, upper confidence 24%)
     
    Estimated ancestry after reviewing Ancestry.com, 23&Me, FTDNA My Origins, Living DNA and known family history:
    33% English, 27% Scottish, 18% Welsh, 18% Irish, 4% German/Netherlands

    Y-DNA leads to Isle of Skye, Scottish Highlands: R1b>M343>L278>L754>L389>P297>M269>L23>L51>L151/L11>P312>Z290>L21/M529>DF13>L513/DF1>S5668>A7>Z21253> S7834 > S7828 > BY11203 > BY11186 (about 320-550 years old)

    MTDNA leads to Glamorgan, South Wales: K1a4a1f

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  17. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nqp15hhu View Post
    I don't have any 0% in my ranges, but I am wondering about how they have come to the conclusion of their results. Do the people with English ancestry have a 0% in their range for Scottish ancestry?
    Here's what Ancestry's Ethnicity 2020 White Paper (https://www.ancestrycdn.com/dna/stat...te%20paper.pdf) says on the topic:

    Because these proportions are estimates, we need a way to determine the confidence surrounding these
    values. To do this, we randomly sample 1,000 non-Viterbi paths, or paths that might not be the most likely
    (but are still likely). In each of the 1,000 runs, a given window is assigned a population pair with a
    probability that depends on the assignment, within the same run, of the previous window and the
    predetermined transition and emission probabilities. These 1,000 values are used to provide a confidence
    range on the reported Viterbi estimate.

    All of my ancestries except England and Northwestern Europe do include 0% in the range. For E&NWE the range is 51-58%, meaning Ancestry assigned the top of the range as my final estimate. But, keep in mind that this particular category isn't only found in the British Isles -- there is, after all, a reason Ancestry felt it necessary to include "Northwestern Europe" in the category name.

    The incidence of this category in folks living on the European mainland is not likely due to a mass migration from England to the low countries, part of France, Germany, and Switzerland. A relatively small amount of this surely occurred, and some places -- like Brittany and Normandy -- show a greater amount of British influence.

    Mostly, however, the DNA flow is in the reverse: from the continent to the UK.

    My point is, even a low of 51% here doesn't tell me I have any "British" ancestry at all -- although I do, probably about 40%, but certainly not all (or even necessarily very much) from England.

    Incidentally, many of us likely have "ranges" for ancestries that Ancestry doesn't show us, simply because the estimate ended up being 0%. I think it would be great if they did show us these ancestries, since their estimates are just that -- estimates -- and it would be nice to get more of a look under the hood.

    EDIT:

    • England and Northwestern Europe 58% (51-58%)
    • Scotland 25% (0-25%)
    • Wales 6% (0-18%)
    • Germanic Europe 5% (0-26%)
    • Ireland 4% (0-4%)
    • Finland 1% (0-1%)
    • Indigenous Americas - Mexico 1% (0-1%)
    • Indigenous Americas - North <1% (0-2%)
    Last edited by geebee; 09-17-2020 at 05:06 PM.
    Besides British-German-Catalan, ancestry includes smaller amounts of French, Irish, Swiss, Choctaw & another NA tribe, possibly Catawba. Avatar picture is: my father, his father, & his father's father; baby is my eldest brother.

    GB

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  19. #40
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    The discussion over the new update inspired me to go back to my paper trail and re-estimate my percentages. I did so based on ethnicity of my ggg-grandparents or in some cases 4th g-grandparents. This reminded me that I do have a gggg-grandmother who is supposed to be Scottish. I haven't confirmed it, but included her in the mix as Scottish. My dad is about 63% English, combination of his g-grandfather (who was half Welsh borders and half Essex non-conformists who had some Scottish names in their family) and then a lot of colonial with good records back to England. My mom is on paper about 34% English, but a lot of her colonial lines don't have records back to the British Isles and could include more Ulster or Scots or German than I have on paper (they lived in places where that would not have been uncommon, in fact).

    So for fun, comparing my paper trail to the new results:

    Germanic Europe: on paper (combo of German, German Swiss, and Dutch), 15.5% (I also have 3% French); new update, 17%
    Sweden: on paper, 12.5%; new update, 13%

    England (I'm ignoring the NW Europe here, as mine is mostly accounted for): on paper, 48% (could be less); new update, 12%
    Ireland: on paper (all Ulster Protestants to my knowledge), 9%; new update: 2% (so I'm assuming most of the paper ancestry is in Scotland)
    Wales: on paper, 9% (but indications that it could be more, as with the Welsh border ancestry); new update, 23%
    Scotland: on paper, 1.5% (but I absolutely could have more Scottish or Scots-Irish ancestry than my paper trail shows); new update, 33%

    So overall even though I do think 33% is likely too high, especially given that much of my dad's colonial English (1630s Puritan migration and early Quakers, mostly) have good paper trails, the overall breakdown is great, and I'm happy with it.

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