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Thread: Ancestry DNA Update of Ethnicity Estimate

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    Someone has probably already posted this explanation.

    It’s nice to hear they’re going to be refining it as they go along. I believe they did that with the last update, too. While my own results have become a little skewed in this update, I give them a lot of credit for continually working on their results. If I remember correctly, they’ve had three updates in the last three years. Which is far more than any other company is doing.
    Paper Trail: 42.25% English, 31.25% Scottish, 12.5% Irish, 6.25% German, 6.25% Italian & 1.5% French. Or: 86% British Isles, 6.25% German, 6.25% Italian & 1.5% French.
    LDNA(c): 86.3% British Isles (48.6% English, 37.7% Scottish & Irish), 7.8% NW Germanic, 5.9% Europe South (Aegean 3.4%, Tuscany 1.3%, Sardinia 1.1%)
    BigY 700: I1-Z140 >I-F2642 >Y1966 >Y3649 >A13241 >Y3647 >A13248 (circa 620 AD) >A13242/YSEQ (circa 765 AD) >FT80854 (circa 1650 AD).

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jessie View Post
    Scottish seriously over estimated. I really think they should have went beta and got some feedback.
    It reminds me of the last update where Ancestry went on a Sweden kick and suddenly everyone had at least 4% Sweden. My Scottish is 32% and my England and Northwest Europe is 38%. My Irish dropped to 4% and Wales is 5%. The biggest change for me with this update was the increase in the "Celtic" parts of the British Isles and the decrease in Germanic Europe. Previously I was right at 33% Germanic Europe and 67% England and Northwest Europe/ Scotland, Ireland, Wales. This previous estimate was a spot on match for my paper genealogy. Something I noticed also is that most of Northern Ireland is captured in the new Scotland category.

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  5. #23
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    Is anyone getting elevated percentages of Balkan in the new update? Especially those with Ukrainian/Eastern European ancestry and no known Balkan ancestry?

  6. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    It reminds me of the last update where Ancestry went on a Sweden kick and suddenly everyone had at least 4% Sweden. My Scottish is 32% and my England and Northwest Europe is 38%. My Irish dropped to 4% and Wales is 5%. The biggest change for me with this update was the increase in the "Celtic" parts of the British Isles and the decrease in Germanic Europe. Previously I was right at 33% Germanic Europe and 67% England and Northwest Europe/ Scotland, Ireland, Wales. This previous estimate was a spot on match for my paper genealogy. Something I noticed also is that most of Northern Ireland is captured in the new Scotland category.
    In the 2019 update I lost my 7% Germanic Europe completely and my 5% Sweden jumped to 11%. In this update my 11% Sweden disappeared to 0% and now I have 12% Germanic Europe. I also jumped from 25% Ireland and Scotland to 29% Scotland / 11% Ireland.
    AncestryDNA: 48% England & Northwestern Europe, 29% Scotland, 12% Germanic Europe, 11% Ireland
    23andMe (v5.2 - 50% Confidence phased with 2 parents): 53.9% British & Irish, 22.7% French & German, 3.1% Scandinavian,
    17.2% Broadly Northwestern European, 1.5% Spanish & Portuguese, 0.4% Broadly Southern European,
    0.5% Broadly European, 0.2% Senegambian & Guinean, 0.2% Angolan & Congolese, 0.2% North African, 0.1% Unassigned

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  8. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMcB View Post
    It’s nice to hear they’re going to be refining it as they go along. I believe they did that with the last update, too. While my own results have become a little skewed in this update, I give them a lot of credit for continually working on their results. If I remember correctly, they’ve had three updates in the last three years. Which is far more than any other company is doing.
    I'd give them more credit for continually working on their results if I were seeing any improvement over time. I'm not.

    I won't argue that no one is seeing improvement -- there are many who believe they are. But this simply is not true for me. I'm still seeing too much "England and Northwestern Europe". Perhaps it wouldn't be too much if Ancestry weren't so determined to leave the impression that this is really somehow a "British" region.

    I'm also not seeing any Spanish at all, even though my most recent immigrant ancestry is from Spain. Both my maternal grandmother's paternal grandfather and her maternal grandfather immigrated (separately) from the island of Menorca. Three of my full siblings get 10%, 8%, and 8% Southern European at 23andMe, though I only get 4.7% there myself -- not the 12.5% that is these 2nd great grandfather's share in my tree. At LivingDNA I get a little more -- 6.7% East Iberia. DNA.Land shows 17% Southwestern Europe, which is actually not too far from my paper trail since I also have some French ancestry from the region DNA.Land shows on the map.

    Before 2018, nearly all of my Ancestry estimates were pretty close. For example, I had 9% for Spain. But after 2019, no Spain. In 2019, I got 1% "Spain" back. Now, Spain is again gone. The most consistent part of my estimate has been "Native American", since at least the range (0-3%) has been exactly the same in each estimate. But the estimate itself has varied between 1 and 2% over the estimates, as has the characterization.

    Before 2018, it was simply a "trace" amount of 1%; in 2018, it was 2% "Native American"; in 2019 that became 1% "Indigenous Americas - North". Now, I have 1% "Indigenous Americas - Mexico" and <1% "Indigenous Americas - North".

    One effect of these changes can be seen in comparisons to my matches. If a match has chosen to "show all matches", well and good. But, if a match has chosen to show only "in common" ethnicities, then I can't see my matches "ethnicities" that are not exactly the same.

    This definitely makes a difference with "Indigenous Americas" categories. Before, I couldn't see when a match who elected to only show "in common" ethnicities had "Indigenous Americas - Mexico", because I only had "Indigenous Americas - North". But with those cousins who both (1) descended from the same Native American ancestor I did and (2) also elected to show all ethnicities, many had small percentages in other "Indigenous Americas" categories -- sometimes along with "Indigenous Americas - North", and sometimes separately.

    Since my "Indigenous Americas - North" is shown as less than 1% (but actually more than 0), it's also shown to all my matches as being 0. Which, of course, is somewhat misleading. The funny thing is, based on my paper trail I should probably have somewhat more Native American ancestry from "Indigenous Americas - North" than from "Indigenous Americas - Mexico", though none of my Native American ancestry actually came from Mexico. (Out of the 2.0% on my paper trail, the split is actually 1.5% from my maternal grandfather and 0.5% from my maternal grandmother. The most recent NA ancestor on my grandfather's side likely was from what became Virginia; the ancestor on my grandmother's side was from what became southern Louisiana or Mississippi.)
    Besides British-German-Catalan, ancestry includes smaller amounts of French, Irish, Swiss, Choctaw & another NA tribe, possibly Catawba. Avatar picture is: my father, his father, & his father's father; baby is my eldest brother.

    GB

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  10. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by geebee View Post
    I'd give them more credit for continually working on their results if I were seeing any improvement over time. I'm not.

    I won't argue that no one is seeing improvement -- there are many who believe they are. But this simply is not true for me. I'm still seeing too much "England and Northwestern Europe". Perhaps it wouldn't be too much if Ancestry weren't so determined to leave the impression that this is really somehow a "British" region.

    I'm also not seeing any Spanish at all, even though my most recent immigrant ancestry is from Spain. Both my maternal grandmother's paternal grandfather and her maternal grandfather immigrated (separately) from the island of Menorca. Three of my full siblings get 10%, 8%, and 8% Southern European at 23andMe, though I only get 4.7% there myself -- not the 12.5% that is these 2nd great grandfather's share in my tree. At LivingDNA I get a little more -- 6.7% East Iberia. DNA.Land shows 17% Southwestern Europe, which is actually not too far from my paper trail since I also have some French ancestry from the region DNA.Land shows on the map.

    Before 2018, nearly all of my Ancestry estimates were pretty close. For example, I had 9% for Spain. But after 2019, no Spain. In 2019, I got 1% "Spain" back. Now, Spain is again gone. The most consistent part of my estimate has been "Native American", since at least the range (0-3%) has been exactly the same in each estimate. But the estimate itself has varied between 1 and 2% over the estimates, as has the characterization.

    Before 2018, it was simply a "trace" amount of 1%; in 2018, it was 2% "Native American"; in 2019 that became 1% "Indigenous Americas - North". Now, I have 1% "Indigenous Americas - Mexico" and <1% "Indigenous Americas - North".

    One effect of these changes can be seen in comparisons to my matches. If a match has chosen to "show all matches", well and good. But, if a match has chosen to show only "in common" ethnicities, then I can't see my matches "ethnicities" that are not exactly the same.

    This definitely makes a difference with "Indigenous Americas" categories. Before, I couldn't see when a match who elected to only show "in common" ethnicities had "Indigenous Americas - Mexico", because I only had "Indigenous Americas - North". But with those cousins who both (1) descended from the same Native American ancestor I did and (2) also elected to show all ethnicities, many had small percentages in other "Indigenous Americas" categories -- sometimes along with "Indigenous Americas - North", and sometimes separately.

    Since my "Indigenous Americas - North" is shown as less than 1% (but actually more than 0), it's also shown to all my matches as being 0. Which, of course, is somewhat misleading. The funny thing is, based on my paper trail I should probably have somewhat more Native American ancestry from "Indigenous Americas - North" than from "Indigenous Americas - Mexico", though none of my Native American ancestry actually came from Mexico. (Out of the 2.0% on my paper trail, the split is actually 1.5% from my maternal grandfather and 0.5% from my maternal grandmother. The most recent NA ancestor on my grandfather's side likely was from what became Virginia; the ancestor on my grandmother's side was from what became southern Louisiana or Mississippi.)
    I can’t certainly understand your disappointment with Ancestry. Unfortunately, that’s the way it goes with ethnicity testing. What’s good for some, is bad for others. I’ve often heard people extolling the virtues of 23&me, while for me they come in dead last and their last update only made it worse. Nevertheless, I’m glad that others are happy with their results and just move on. The truth is, I was better off with Ancestry two updates ago but they’re still in the top two, as far as I’m concerned. As is usually the case, some are happy with this update and some aren’t. Just like the last two and all the other updates that every other company has ever come up with. There is nothing new under the Sun. However, I still give them credit for trying to improve their results three years in a row, which is better than most companies are doing. If you don’t want to do so, that’s fine.
    Last edited by JMcB; 09-15-2020 at 03:19 AM.
    Paper Trail: 42.25% English, 31.25% Scottish, 12.5% Irish, 6.25% German, 6.25% Italian & 1.5% French. Or: 86% British Isles, 6.25% German, 6.25% Italian & 1.5% French.
    LDNA(c): 86.3% British Isles (48.6% English, 37.7% Scottish & Irish), 7.8% NW Germanic, 5.9% Europe South (Aegean 3.4%, Tuscany 1.3%, Sardinia 1.1%)
    BigY 700: I1-Z140 >I-F2642 >Y1966 >Y3649 >A13241 >Y3647 >A13248 (circa 620 AD) >A13242/YSEQ (circa 765 AD) >FT80854 (circa 1650 AD).

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  12. #27
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    Finally received Ancestry's official notification with their links to the White Paper and all.
    Statisticians need to have good accuracy AND good precision - sort of like being able to walk AND chew gum at the same time.
    All of their hype about precision means they are not boasting about their accuracy.
    ("Never mind the quality, feel the width!" comes to mind.)

    My estimates have not really changed much.
    My Eastern European is less accurate but more precise (no longer extending off to Lake Baikal).
    With Scottish splitting from Irish, now my Cornish are called "Irish" instead of "Irish-Scottish".
    But at least my Scottish stand alone.
    They don't have a separate Cornish panel, so that is not surprising; but it could be misleading for adoptees, or those with an unknown parent or grandparent.

    They are providing more panels and therefore more specificity - so more precision.
    But the average person confuses precision with accuracy, so if Ancestry does not clearly define "precision" their claim ends up misleading people; even if this was unintended.

    All up, a tiny move in the right direction, but not without some parts taking a backward half-step.
    Last edited by Saetro; 09-15-2020 at 05:23 AM.

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  14. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMcB View Post
    I can’t certainly understand your disappointment with Ancestry. Unfortunately, that’s the way it goes with ethnicity testing. What’s good for some, is bad for others. I’ve often heard people extolling the virtues of 23&me, while for me they come in dead last and their last update only made it worse. Nevertheless, I’m glad that others are happy with their results and just move on. The truth is, I was better off with Ancestry two updates ago but they’re still in the top two, as far as I’m concerned. As is usually the case, some are happy with this update and some aren’t. Just like the last two and all the other updates that every other company has ever come up with. There is nothing new under the Sun. However, I still give them credit for trying to improve their results three years in a row, which is better than most companies are doing. If you don’t want to do so, that’s fine.
    I feel the same way about 23andMe. Here at Anthrogenica I read that many folks really like it and find it the most accurate; for me, it isn't way off, but it's not the best. I get better results from Ancestry, including the communities in which they place me in North America.

    FTDNA isn't bad but gives me too much Scandinavian. Their update, if it ever comes, should be interesting.

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  16. #29
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    My total Indigenous Americas went up to 2%, which I wasn't expecting coming from AncestryDNA.(It's funny how Myheritage pegged me at (initially 2.6%) 2.4% Amerindian, specifically Mesoamerican & Andean via AncestryDNA raw data right from the beginning.)
    I'm intrigued by the 1% Yucatan Peninsula, specifically. That's Mayan country, covering the far edges of Southeast Mexico (peaking in the state of Yucatan itself), Guatemala, and Belize. The Mayans could have made contact with the tribes in the USA, via the Gulf Coast, and came into contact with an ancestor living in the southern states near the coast. Either that, or "Yucatan" is a proxy for some of the tribes that once inhabited those southern states in proximity to the Gulf Coast, such as the Biloxi and Choctaw, and that my indigenous ancestry is partially rooted in one of those tribes.

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  18. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marv View Post
    Ancestry2020_update(2.1).png

    My total Indigenous Americas went up to 2%, which I wasn't expecting coming from AncestryDNA.(It's funny how Myheritage pegged me at (initially 2.6%) 2.4% Amerindian, specifically Mesoamerican & Andean via AncestryDNA raw data right from the beginning.)
    I'm intrigued by the 1% Yucatan Peninsula, specifically. That's Mayan country, covering the far edges of Southeast Mexico (peaking in the state of Yucatan itself), Guatemala, and Belize. The Mayans could have made contact with the tribes in the USA, via the Gulf Coast, and came into contact with an ancestor living in the southern states near the coast. Either that, or "Yucatan" is a proxy for some of the tribes that once inhabited those southern states in proximity to the Gulf Coast, such as the Biloxi and Choctaw, and that my indigenous ancestry is partially rooted in one of those tribes.
    Well there has been evidence found that suggests the Creek tribes of the Southeast United States originated from the Mayans. The Creeks tribes in Georgia made pyramid structures like the Mayan, they had the same star chart carvings, and Mayan blue materials have been found to originate from Georgia.

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