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Thread: Time Frames for a Full Match on FTDNA

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    Time Frames for a Full Match on FTDNA

    What's the time frame for a full match on HVR1, HVR2, Coding Regions? There can be a lower limit, since you have 0 with your mother too, but what's the upper limit? Is there even one? Or could a 0 distance match still be thousand years apart in theory?

    FTDNA writes about this:
    Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) testing covers both recent and distant generations.

    Matching on HVR1 means that you have a 50% chance of sharing a common maternal ancestor within the last fifty-two generations. That is about 1,300 years.
    Matching on HVR1 and HVR2 means that you have a 50% chance of sharing a common maternal ancestor within the last twenty-eight generations. That is about 700 years.
    Matching on the Mitochondrial DNA Full Genomic Sequence test brings your matches into times that are more recent. It means that you have a 50% chance of sharing a common maternal ancestor within the last 5 generations. That is about 125 years.
    With the matches I have, from the genealogical point view, its surely more than 300 years and could still be 500 plus years rather. The last 125 years are completely out of question, because I have the paper trail and autosomal matches proving it. It must be far beyond 300 years also, which is where my and of some of the matches the paper trail ends. The most likely origin, considering the matches, is about 700-800 years ago with the German Ostkolonisation.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...stsiedlung.png
    Which is the second level of a 50 percent chance for HVR1/HVR2 matching time according to FTDNA. If its not the German Ostsiedlung, it must be the Slavic migration period, which would extend it another time, for a time scale between 600 and 1.200, so between 800-1.400 years BP.

    What are your experiences with FTDNA full matches and the time frame? Could you pin it down and did anyone detect a common female ancestor via a full match on FTDNA?
    Last edited by Riverman; 10-09-2020 at 09:04 AM.

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    I don't consider FTDNA's guidance to be useful, because of the way it treats heteroplasmies (such as 16093Y) and extraneous mutations (such as 523/524). There are many cases which do not show as HVR1, HVR2, or FMS 0 matches to me which are in fact so. Thus, from FTDNA results, I have never been able to tell who my closest matches are.

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    It depends per clade. With complete full matches, I think a time frame of 1000 years is not uncommon. In my case, I have one complete full match from Germany, while my maternal line traces back to 17th century Holland - in an area that was one large peat bog until cultivation started from ca. 1000 AD onward. A common ancestor must be certainly before 1600 AD.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pylsteen View Post
    It depends per clade. With complete full matches, I think a time frame of 1000 years is not uncommon. In my case, I have one complete full match from Germany, while my maternal line traces back to 17th century Holland - in an area that was one large peat bog until cultivation started from ca. 1000 AD onward. A common ancestor must be certainly before 1600 AD.
    So you have the same situation as me, because this was part of the Binnenkolonisation, same as with Ostkolonisation, just happening without expanding ethnic-law borders, but just cultivate formerly unused or difficult to settle swaths of land. I hoped for something closer, but apparently, 0 distance still can mean 1.000 years or more. My full matches are all from the same macro-region from East Germany-Bohemia, which was affected by both the Slavic migration and German settlement. The matches with distance 1 are very different by the way, some are from the same regions in Central Europe, yes, but others are from Scandinavia, Finland, Britain & Ireland, Russia, Balkans, Greece, so definitely beyond 1.000 years...
    Last edited by Riverman; 10-09-2020 at 10:27 AM.

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    Have you checked for matches with ancient DNA samples? What is your specific type of mtDNA?

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    Quote Originally Posted by J1 DYS388=13 View Post
    Have you checked for matches with ancient DNA samples? What is your specific type of mtDNA?
    Ancient samples won't help a lot, because its T2b.

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    FTDNA has not updated these probability estimates in over 10 years, and we have known almost that long that their estimates are wildly over optimistic. Nor has FTDNA provided any analysis that shows how they developed those estimates.

    The rate that mtDNA mutations accumulate is very slow but also extremely variable. Using haplogroup H as an example, H is estimated by Behar et al. to be about 14,000 years old, and there are people who are H with no additional mutations, so their exact matches could share a common maternal as much as 14,000 years ago. There are also people in H with 10 or more additional mutations, so their exact matches will be much more recently related.

    The average mtDNA mutation rate is estimated to be about 1 in 3000 years, so on average, exact matches might be expected to share a common maternal ancestor sometime within the last 1000 to 2000 years, but averages are really meaningless because the mutation rate is so variable. It is also problematic the way FTDNA counts steps for heteroplasmies and "hot spot" markers like insertions/deletions at marker 522 that mutate extremely frequently. I know of a case of two sisters who tested the full mtDNA sequence and are 4 step matches at FTDNA.

    The best way to used the mtDNA results is to start with the age estimate of your specific subclade, and then count the number of extra mutations in your results (ignoring heteroplasmies and hot spots). This would give you an estimate of whether your exact or close matches might share a common maternal ancestor within the last several hundred years or perhaps many thousands of years ago.
    Last edited by GailT; 10-09-2020 at 06:23 PM.

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    I am six mutations downstream of W5, let's see what ancient DNA brings us:
    the branch was already present in the Balkan neolithic, at earliest ca. 6000 BC.
    This would give me about 1 mutation per 1300 years on average, at least for this branch.
    W5 was further found in Globular Amphorae and CWC environments.
    I am four mutations downstream of W5a, which is found in a Czech CWC setting, ca. 2500 BC,
    this gives me about 1 mutation per 1100 years. Painstakingly slow, but perhaps this is a good thing fur such an important organelle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pylsteen View Post
    I am six mutations downstream of W5, let's see what ancient DNA brings us:
    the branch was already present in the Balkan neolithic, at earliest ca. 6000 BC.
    This would give me about 1 mutation per 1300 years on average, at least for this branch.
    W5 was further found in Globular Amphorae and CWC environments.
    I am four mutations downstream of W5a, which is found in a Czech CWC setting, ca. 2500 BC,
    this gives me about 1 mutation per 1100 years. Painstakingly slow, but perhaps this is a good thing fur such an important organelle.
    Indeed, its not like they are all harmless:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4058519/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3434112/

    The good thing for me is, all my full matches are from the same macro-region and fit into either Slavic migration or German settlement. But its impossible to decide, because even if one maternal ancestor from the Elbe-Saale region came "as German" to the other places, this doesn't decide the ultimate origin, because her lineage could have been assimilated into the German community just 2 generations before settling further East. So I'm left with either West Slavic or (core) German. At distance 1 I have mostly Germanic, but also Slavic, Baltic and Finnic matches. Surprising was just the very high fraction of Finnish matches. These could be either Germanic/Viking/Swedish from more recent times or from an older layer of Baltic or even older Indo-European I guess.

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    I've one exact match at FTDNA who's MDKA came from Cardiff whilst mine came from a small town just up the road (Crickhowell) so I'm guessing our common ancestor isn't that far back, however since his MDKA's surname is the most common in Wales and mine isn't far behind (and particularly common in Crickhowell back then and probably now) I gave up hope of finding the connection years ago : )

    Interesting bit of trivia but if you ask Google how to get from Crickhowell to Cardiff the shortest root goes past my house (about 1/2 way) : ))))
    Last edited by jdean; 10-10-2020 at 05:27 PM.

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