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Thread: New Samples from Migration Era and Early Medieval Moravia

  1. #1411
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambron View Post
    The alleged Av2 population you call Belarusian-like is, colloquially speaking, a genetic mix of Poles and Balts; is located genetically centrally between the Poles and the Balts.

    The northern Poles lie exactly on the line Wez56-Scandinavia, far away from the Balto-Slavic cline. This fact leaves no doubt that Wez56 is one of the populations of their ancestors. The more so because we also see perfect geographic and historical compatibility here.
    WEZ56 falls outside the range of modern European population variation, on the other hand, the Slavic samples from Brandysek, Pohanskoe, Krakauer Berg, along with Medieval individuals from Poland, and Sunghir6 from Central Russia do overlap with each other and contemporary Slavic populations.

     



     


    qpAdm models with Welzin56 in the right (reference) and AV2 used as a source pop. If the target prefers WEZ56 over AV2 the model should fail with a very low tail (p-values).

     




     



     



    It doesn't, the p-values in all three cases are > 0.9, there is no hint whatsoever that Weltzin56 is the more suitable source population over AV2, and in fact, the latter is determined to be a proximal source.

    All the ancient DNA concerning Slavs so far has been spelling out a very obvious pattern and it sure ain't pointing in the direction of Weltzin.

    You can try and rationalize this by conjuring up a theory about Balts in 8th century Moravia but for the impartial observer, the genetic data speaks for itself.
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    I think some problems with this debate is that while autosomal would speak for an Eastern origin, the subclades of certain haplogroups viewed to be core Slavic would speak for an origin between Krakow and Lvov. Perhaps there is an element of elite recruitment/founder effects involved here that would tie the two together.

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  5. #1413
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    Altvred, first, the conclusion that Wez56 goes beyond the scope of modern European genetic variation is only due to the limitation of G25. But also in the G25 NE PCA Wez56 is in this range. I understand that you use the PCA arbitrarily, depending on what you want to prove. But this in turn demonstrates the weakness of the PCA method.

    Even if it were so, it does not matter diachronically. We cannot expect a population several thousand years ago to look genetically the same as medieval or modern. Unfortunately, some colleagues believe that the correlation between genetics and geography has always been the same, so they tell fairy tales about Lithuanians coming to Tollense and Belarusians coming to the Elbe and Morava.

    Belarusians could not create Western Slavs, especially Poles, because they themselves are a genetic mix of Poles and Balts. So you can talk about Poles as a mixture of Belarusians and Germans "but for the impartial observer, the genetic data speaks for itself".
    Last edited by ambron; 06-11-2021 at 07:53 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by altvred View Post
    WEZ56 falls outside the range of modern European population variation, on the other hand, the Slavic samples from Brandysek, Pohanskoe, Krakauer Berg, along with Medieval individuals from Poland, and Sunghir6 from Central Russia do overlap with each other and contemporary Slavic populations.

     



     


    qpAdm models with Welzin56 in the right (reference) and AV2 used as a source pop. If the target prefers WEZ56 over AV2 the model should fail with a very low tail (p-values).

     




     



     



    It doesn't, the p-values in all three cases are > 0.9, there is no hint whatsoever that Weltzin56 is the more suitable source population over AV2, and in fact, the latter is determined to be a proximal source.

    All the ancient DNA concerning Slavs so far has been spelling out a very obvious pattern and it sure ain't pointing in the direction of Weltzin.

    You can try and rationalize this by conjuring up a theory about Balts in 8th century Moravia but for the impartial observer, the genetic data speaks for itself.
    The funny thing is that AV2 is genetically still super close to Poles and when we say she was Belarusian-like we are really talking about details but Tollense, Kowalewko, Balkan_BA and Chernyakhov Goths were all much more distant in the case of Balkan_BA and Tollense often more to them than even West Europeans or Srubnaya. So if Proto-Slavs or Proto-Balto-Slavs came from them there is almost no Proto-Slavic ancestry in Poland because Poles derive most of their ancestry clearly from AV2/Krakauer Berg-like types but somehow this scenario is preferred because it means Slavs not came from the "East" and were first in Poland.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coldmountains View Post
    The funny thing is that AV2 is genetically still super close to Poles and when we say she was Belarusian-like we are really talking about details but Tollense, Kowalewko, Balkan_BA and Chernyakhov Goths were all much more distant in the case of Balkan_BA and Tollense often more to them than even West Europeans or Srubnaya. So if Proto-Slavs or Proto-Balto-Slavs came from them there is almost no Proto-Slavic ancestry in Poland because Poles derive most of their ancestry clearly from AV2/Krakauer Berg-like types but somehow this scenario is preferred because it means Slavs not came from the "East" and were first in Poland.
    Different source groups can produce a very similar autosomal profile. That's an issue which can only be solved with uniparentals and IBD segment sharing on a significant level. In fact, we can turn it around as often as we want, and many people here are much better than me doing so, but it won't be conclusive evidence without additional data. It just won't be.
    What I have to say about some Tollense individuals is just that I don't think they were Proto-Germanic, Proto-Slavic, not even Proto-Illyrian or Proto-Thracian, but represent an extinct Indoeuropean branch which was at best related to one of the mentioned groups, probably contributed on a low level to one of the mentioned groups. But apparently, they were defeated and largely replaced.
    Last edited by Riverman; 06-11-2021 at 09:25 AM.

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  10. #1416
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waldemar View Post
    Please correct me if I'm wrong, but this sample looks Hungarian/Ukrainian-like (probably also South Polish/local-like).
    "DNA tests indicated that the girl was likely from an area north of Poland, possibly around modern-day Finland or Karelia."

    https://www.livescience.com/girl-bur...th-poland.html

    And these guys are also analysing Gothic samples...
    Last edited by Waldemar; 06-11-2021 at 11:55 AM.

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  12. #1417
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    ^^^ Is it possible to download the genotype data of this TW595 individual somewhere?

  13. #1418
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    ^^^ Is it possible to download the genotype data of this TW595 individual somewhere?
    I don't think so. Here's an article with the PCA from my post above (not available to download now ) - https://www.researchgate.net/publica...outhern_Poland
    Last edited by Waldemar; 06-11-2021 at 12:10 PM.

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  15. #1419
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambron View Post
    So we have no doubts that individuals with a large Balto-Slavic drift lived in northern Poland before the Middle Ages. Therefore, it is not surprising that individuals with a large Balto-Slavic drift found among medieval Sorbs (Krakauer Berg) who came from northern Poland:

    "BATWING of the Slavic populations of Kaszuby and Lusatia provided convergent MCMC chains with unimodal distribution and revealed that their divergence took place 1.7 kya (95% confidence intervals: 1.4–2.1 kya) and was preceded by 0.6 ky of demographic expansion with a 4.2% growth rate".

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3598329/
    It is a shame that they did not examine any autosomal DNA, only Y-DNA, in that study.

    Sorbs (Lusatia) and Kashubians (Kaszuby) plot very different from each other, in G25:

    Scaled coordinates:

    Code:
    Sorb_Niederlausitz,0.130897,0.137096,0.068636,0.056848,0.050779,0.021196,0.011281,0.011076,-0.003477,-0.017312,-0.002111,-0.006744,0.013082,0.017891,-0.008415,0.001061,0.008475,-0.006208,0.007039,-0.004127,-0.003369,-0.007543,0.008011,-0.004458,0.001197
    POL_Kashubian,0.133173,0.12491,0.07995,0.067184,0.045547,0.023148,0.00282,0.014076,0.000205,-0.024966,0.000487,-0.005845,0.016353,0.018441,0.00095,-0.009944,-0.017602,-0.002914,0.003771,0.004252,0.001248,-0.008285,0.008627,-0.000723,-0.002155


    =====

    Edit:

    And unscaled coordinates:

    Code:
    POL_Kashubian,0.0117,0.0123,0.0212,0.0208,0.0148,0.0083,0.0012,0.0061,0.0001,-0.0137,0.0003,-0.0039,0.011,0.0134,0.0007,-0.0075,-0.0135,-0.0023,0.003,0.0034,0.001,-0.0067,0.007,-0.0006,-0.0018
    Last edited by Tomenable; 06-11-2021 at 12:43 PM.

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  17. #1420
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    Currently VK157 is the closest sample from G25 datasheets (no modern individual is closer):

    Distance to: POL_Kashubian
    0.02214997 VK2020_POL_Bodzia_VA:VK157
    0.02547731 Polish:Polish11
    0.02580562 Polish:Polish8
    0.02636066 Polish:Polish32
    (...)

    So probably VK157 was a Medieval Kashubian himself ???

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