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Thread: New Samples from Migration Era and Early Medieval Moravia

  1. #1051
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambron View Post
    So if someone claims that Western Slavs are a mixture of individuals such as Av2 and the father of Av1, then he must realize that it is a mix of Masovians and Hungarians.

    Target: Av0_Pannonian
    Distance: 1.9282% / 0.01928151 | R3P
    52.0 Polish
    24.2 French_Occitanie
    23.8 Greek_Peloponnese

    https://slavicorigins.blogspot.com/2021/05/avaria.html
    Hmmmmm
    Which ones would be local and which ones would have brought Slavic language to the region?

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    Parastais, we know just that the Pannonian-Slavic dialect displayed both West Slavic and South Slavic features.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ambron View Post
    Cyryl, do the Ukrainian samples of Kusznierewicz grouped with Slovaks also have a recent Polish origin? Tamenable or Lucas have Carpathian Ruthenians who can be a good proxy for southwestern Ukraine.
    It is obvious, that majority of Ukrainian samples who are grouped with Slovaks have recent Polish ancestry, there was a high number of Poles in Western Ukraine, also there are Ukrainian samples on G25, which plot with Slovaks but because they have Rusyn mixture and it shifts them towards Slovaks, who also have small percentage of Paleo-Balkan DNA. There are Carpathian Ukrainian samples on Eurogenes K13 and do not show exaggerated North Atlantic admixture compared to Ukrainians from east, we would know more if these samples were on G25 though.
    Interesting thing is we found ethnic Polish samples from Western Ukraine a lot of them show even more Celto-Germanic mixture, than Central Poles, two individuals from Galicia are modelled as 60% Ukrainian/Belarusian + 40% German.
    Last edited by CyrylBojarski; 06-01-2021 at 04:52 PM.

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  6. #1054
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    Quote Originally Posted by CyrylBojarski View Post
    It is obvious, that majority of Ukrainian samples who are grouped with Slovaks have recent Polish ancestry, there was a high number of Poles in Western Ukraine, also there are Ukrainian samples on G25, which plot with Slovaks but because they have Rusyn mixture and it shifts them towards Slovaks, who also have small percentage of Paleo-Balkan DNA. There are Carpathian Ukrainian samples on Eurogenes K13 and do not show exaggerated North Atlantic admixture compared to Ukrainians from east, we would know more if these samples were on G25 though.
    Interesting thing is we found ethnic Polish samples from Western Ukraine a lot of them show even more Celto-Germanic mixture, than Central Poles, two individuals from Galicia are modelled as 60% Ukrainian/Belarusian + 40% German.
    Walddeutsche went surprisingly quite East, they reached Lwow:
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Granary View Post
    Just to make sure, no one in this debate is claiming that slavs come outside of this delineated region, right?
     
    I think that the area or archaeological culture in which we will find the oldest joint presence of R1a-Z280, R1a-M458 and I2a-L621 will be the area in which the Slavs originated. Perhaps it will be the territory you outlined, and perhaps not

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  10. #1056
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    I went and looked at some of the blog posts summarizing the other side of the debate, which from what I can make out seems to argue for the points that 1) Slavs are more deeply rooted in all areas of Europe that they now occupy than just being the results of a migration-period expansion, and that 2) proto-Slavs from the migration period were already genetically diverse (so the non-Belarusian-like individuals from e.g. Kowaleko are also Slavic):

    https://slavicorigins.blogspot.com/2...day-slavs.html
    https://slavicorigins.blogspot.com/2...baltic-hg.html
    https://slavicorigins.blogspot.com/2...rly-slavs.html

    The first blog post summarizes evidence that the surplus EEF ancestry of modern slavs is WHG-poor and Balkan-like. The second points out to the lack of Baltic_HG ancestry in Baltic_BA; by the Middle Neolithic and BA, WHG-rich populations existed in Europe only further to the South and West, as suggested by the WHG-rich samples from Hungary and Tollense, which contrasts with the EHG-rich HGs of the Baltic region in the Middle Neoltihic. These posts point to an ultimate origin of Baltic_BA plus populations having high levels of Baltic_BA ancestry (which includes all Balts and Slavs) from outside of NE Europe and the Baltic region in the BA, but as aforementioned this does not point to the Slavic expansion in the migration period taking place from a point outside NE Europe.

    As for the third blog post, Arza's argument--that all of the migration-age "early Slavic" samples, taken together, have about as much variability as modern Lithuanians, and should therefore be considered part of "one ethnicity" so to speak, as opposed to only the Belarusian-like genomes considered as "early Slavic"--is quite stimulating, and leads us on to some other questions, which I hope the rest of the community can discuss/help to answer!

    1. Arza is implicitly comparing a modern ethnicity/national identity (Lithuanians) with an ancient proto-language community (the earliest Slavs in our archaeogenetic record, which are presumably the first migrants from the proto-Slavic-speaking community/ethnic group into each region of E Europe). The Lithuanians are of course an ethnicity with millions of people covering a large geographic area whose identity is held together by modern socioeconomic and historical conditions, and in fact "Lithuanian" covers multiple languages that split in the 13th C (Aukstaitian and Samogitian); is this a valid analogy for the proto-Slavic speaking community? Or of the early Slavic individuals we have in the record at the time when they died/ when they "entered the archaeogenetic record"?

    2. In fact, how variable were the representatives of some other linguistic communities, e.g. the early Germanics? How "big" or "spread-out" of a cluster do the unadmixed Anglo-Saxons, Lombards, Vikings, Goths, Dark Age/Migration Age Germans etc. form, and how many centuries/decades earlier was the Proto-Germanic community compared to when we got the Lombards/Anglo-Saxons/Goths etc. in the archaeogenetic record? If "early germanics" cluster much more closely together than modern Lithuanians/"Early Slavs" (as broadly defined) do, can this be used as evidence to exclude many members of the migration-period E Europe grouping from being early Slavs?

    3. Its a well-known fact that all Slavs have genetic contributions from a massive and recent population expansion that started from a small group (within the last 1000-2000 y), which also influenced Balts, as inferred from IBD segments, e.g. from this and this article. This implies that all modern Slavs and Balts share an unusually high number of ancestors with one another within the last 1000-2000 years, and that (even if their genetic or linguistic roots were older in their respective regions, a la Arza's camp's arguments) it is undeniable that a genetic pulse from a common, homogeneous source affected all of them within the last 1000-2000 years. After the whole-genome imputation-based IBD dataset is released from the Reich lab, we can see which of the migration-period "early Slavs" take part in this IBD pulse. If it turns out that only the Belarusian-like individuals do, (so that, even if the previous populations such as Kowaleko types are somewhat similar to Slavs, it is only with the appearance of the Belarusian-like individuals in each region that genealogical connections between modern Slavs and ancient samples suddenly increase), what are the remaining arguments for retaining a deeper rooting of Slavs to their regions, e.g. Kowaleko non-Belarusian-like individuals as also being Slavic?
    HGs in Lithuania were often very low in EHG and rich in WHG. Comb Ceramic seemingly increased EHG later but I would expect HG just south of Lithuania to still be low in EHG. These HGs also seem to work best for Balto-Slavs. I don't think Balto-Slavic drift and the shared ancestry between Baltic_BA and modern-day Balto-Slavs formed in the East Baltics (meaning Lithuania/Latvia) because CWC_Baltic was under different R1a clades and indeed Balto-Slavs don't seem to have extra EHG/SHG-like ancestry. But Balto-Slavic drift likely formed just a bit south or west of the Baltics because around 2000 B.C we already have the first sample in Lithuania (Spiginas2 ) with Balto-Slavic drift and maybe even more important Balto-Slavic specific R1a-CTS1211. No other ancient population sampled so far in Central Europe between 1000-2000 B.C has shown this typical Balto-Slavic Y-DNA and Balto-Slavic drift. Spiginas2 really seems to have lived just shortly before Balto-Slavic drift formed and I very much think his ancestors came from West Ukraine/Belarus/East Poland where Balto-Slavs likely picked most of their HG ancestry. Many interesting cultures in the region with mixed CWC, HG and GAC traits like Rzucewo (from Danzig to Curonia) are not sampled so far and maybe contributed to Balto-Slavs.

    Target: Baltic_LTU_Narvaonkalnis6
    Distance: 3.0331% / 0.03033069
    88.0 WHG
    12.0 RUS_Samara_HG

    Also like mentioned before by others Global25 is a great tool, but it is only as good as are the references and for Slavs we simply have no good references, which are directly ancestral to Proto-Slavs. qpADM shows that Slavs can not be modeled just with Balt_BA and especially not Balt_LVA_BA, so any Global25 models using Balt_BA and extracting some huge Balkan admixture are likely misleading. I would not be surprised if the earliest Slavs not had any Balkan_IA admixture at all or just some small Balkan_IA admixture below 10% because populations ancestral to Slavs in the Bronze Age lived unlike Baltic_BA in a zone with a rich and huge EEF substrate since the Neolithic. So much of the extra EEF in Slavs could be picked up in Ukraine, Poland if not even Belarus. Without more ancient samples from Ukraine, Belarus and East Poland we are just going in circles here and are in the same situation we were with BA Indo-Iranian admixture in South Asia before BMAC/IAMC genomes were published (see models showing Steppe_EBA bringing Indo-Iranian to South Asia because using inaccurate references for South Asians/Central Asians like Iran_N or Anatolia_N)

    I indeed think there was some variation among earliest Pre/Proto-Slavs but rather on a specific Balto-Slavic cline with some samples more like modern-day Balts than even Belarusians (see POH28, POH13) and some more like Polesians/East Poles or maybe even some northern shifted version of the "Scythian Farmers". So far I don't think there was that much Balkan or Germanic admixture because we don't see this signal among East Slavs, who should show this signal just like West Slavs or Carpathian Slavs if it was found among the earliest Slavs without substrate admixture. So far all the Slavs showing this Central Europen genetic signal are from regions with older or contemporary Germanic/Celtic/Balkan IE presence. Some of the samples in these Slavic sites show even Germanic/Central Europen Y-DNA and are in some cases more than 50+% Balkan_IA or East Germanic-like what makes it unlikely that they are unmixed representatives of Proto-Slavs

    If we find tribal East Slavs from the pre-Varangian/pre-Christian period with this significant Central Europen genetic signal then yes there is a good argument for believing Proto-Slavs had these types but based on modern-day Belarusians and Russians there doesn't seem to be such kind of signal as long as they don't have recent Polish, German or Ukrainian ancestry (most Ukrainians also don't show this Central Europen genetic signal but many do like my mother for example). If we look at modern-day Belarusians, Southwest Russians and most North Ukrainians they pretty much are 85-100% Hun_Avar_Szolad_2-like with the rest being mainly Finno-Ugrian, some Carpathian/Alan?/Byzantine? adstrate (some Russians and Ukrainians show even Y-DNA matches with Caucasians) and noises of Germanic/Celtic admixture. Of course, it is more complicated than that because Belarusians and Russians will show some historical Baltic or Para-Slavic admixture way or another, but it is unlikely that they don't derive most of their Balto-Slavic ancestry from early Slavs/Para-Slavs who based on archaeological and historical evidence massively expanded into the East European plains and mostly replaced local Pre-Slavic populations hence the quite low Uralic admixture among many (but not all) Russians west and south of Moscow, who often are indistinguishable from Belarusians or Ukrainians except some really small Uralic admixture.

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  12. #1057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coldmountains View Post
    I don't think there will be anytime soon any accurate method, which would differentiate autosomal Proto-Slavic from Baltic ancestry in East Europe. I mean look at POH13 and POH28 from Czechia who are more Balt_LTU_BA shifted than not so few modern-day Lithuanians. I know these Lithuanians likely have medieval Slavic/Central Euro ancestry but it is still impossible to distinguish these two early Slavs from modern-day Lithuanians. If we would not know, where these persons were buried and had no Y-DNA results, we would think here they were Balts and buried in Lithuania, Latvia or Northern Belarus. Surely early Slavs were as a group overall more southwestern shifted than Balts either because of a different substrate or some admixture but the genetic transition between both groups was so smooth that I find it impossible to say where the Slavic component ends and Baltic component begins. Y-DNA can definitely easier tell apart both groups especially when we get more ancient DNA to compare.

    Target: Migration_POH: POH28
    Distance: 4.4738% / 0.04473774
    56.2 Baltic_LTU_BA
    43.8 HUN_Avar_Szolad

    Target: Lithuanian_PA
    Distance: 1.9973% / 0.01997307
    72.0 HUN_Avar_Szolad
    28.0 Baltic_LTU_BA

    Target: Lithuanian_VZ
    Distance: 2.0070% / 0.02006961
    51.8 Baltic_LTU_BA
    48.2 HUN_Avar_Szolad
    I've gotten curious if this Baltic_BA + AV2_Szolad combo could pass when trying to model Balts on qpAdm and it actually does surprisingly well. I do have some reservations about using a single sample like AV2 on qpAdm but the model seems to be working remarkably great.

    I'm using the HO dataset so there are relatively few Lithuanian samples compared to the ones that are on G25, the samples that are included - are from Kaunas supposedly. They are more Baltic_BA shifted compared to the other more 'Slavic' Lithuanians.

     



     


    There aren't any Latvians included in the HO dataset but I remember that the Estonian Biocentre had a few Latvian samples from an old study, I will just download them from there and see if the model works as well as it does for the Lithuanians.

    Interesting but perhaps unsurprising to note, Russians from certain regions like Pskov have significant Baltic_BA admixture - probably as a result of living next to Estonians for so long, there's also probably less than 1% of Uralic-ancestry in the Pskov individuals which makes that scenario even more likely.

     



    Belarussians, Russians from Orel, Smolensk, and some Ukrainians get the best p-values when using only AV2

     


     


     


     



    Despite Kursk actually being more Southern than Orel, the Russian samples from there have a noticeable Uralic admixture.

     



    Even more of that in Tver, probably related to Karelians.

     


    Curiously enough, the Ryazan Russians got the best results with Sarmatians rather than Levanluhta/Bolshoy. Don't know how meaningful it is but historically Ryazan was the first city (in what is now Russia) invaders from the Steppe paid a visit to.

     
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  14. #1058
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    Quote Originally Posted by altvred View Post
    I've gotten curious if this Baltic_BA + AV2_Szolad combo could pass when trying to model Balts on qpAdm and it actually does surprisingly well. I do have some reservations about using a single sample like AV2 on qpAdm but the model seems to be working remarkably great.

    I'm using the HO dataset so there are relatively few Lithuanian samples compared to the ones that are on G25, the samples that are included - are from Kaunas supposedly. They are more Baltic_BA shifted compared to the other more 'Slavic' Lithuanians.

     



     


    There aren't any Latvians included in the HO dataset but I remember that the Estonian Biocentre had a few Latvian samples from an old study, I will just download them from there and see if the model works as well as it does for the Lithuanians.

    Interesting but perhaps unsurprising to note, Russians from certain regions like Pskov have significant Baltic_BA admixture - probably as a result of living next to Estonians for so long, there's also probably less than 1% of Uralic-ancestry in the Pskov individuals which makes that scenario even more likely.

     



    Belarussians, Russians from Orel, Smolensk, and some Ukrainians get the best p-values when using only AV2

     


     


     


     



    Despite Kursk actually being more Southern than Orel, the Russian samples from there have a noticeable Uralic admixture.

     



    Even more of that in Tver, probably related to Karelians.

     


    Curiously enough, the Ryazan Russians got the best results with Sarmatians rather than Levanluhta/Bolshoy. Don't know how meaningful it is but historically Ryazan was the first city (in what is now Russia) invaders from the Steppe paid a visit to.

     
    Using Global25 for Russians I often have seen Russians picking a bit Sarmatian/Alan/North Caucasus especially the ones which show an extra Steppe-shift in a EEF/HG/Steppe model. It could be from Finno-Ugrians more Steppe_MLBA shifted and also mixed with Scythians/Alans or directly from Sarmatians/Alans. Or we had maybe some eastern Balto-Slavic populations predating Slavs which were both less HG and less EEF shifted (Scythian Farmers?, Balto-Slavs mixed with Steppe people?). Some of the medieval Russian samples also had Byzantine/Greek admixture which probably is now really diluted but maybe also had some impact.

    I recently read that Chernyakhov/Goths were even present in the Kursk Oblast and seemingly some of them even survived the initial Hunnic invasion but the modern-day population of Kursk seems to come mainly from Central Russia (would explain the Finno-Ugrian admixture) after the 16th century i think.

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    You can, of course, all the time revolve around the problem, but by locating the Slavic homeland in the Pripyat basin, we will not avoid having to answer the question:

    If not the well-documented Slavization of the Balts, what other process created the fundamental East Slavic genome that looks like a mix of Poles and Balts?

  17. #1060
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    @Altvred,
    In Baltics between Est_IA (something BCE) and Est_MA (something around Livonian Crusades XIII century or so) a massive shift towards Hun_Avar_Szolad genes happened. Even in Estonians.

    Low quality LT_IA (300 AD, L1025 Baltic) is still archaic, low if any Avar.

    It is puzzling to me if this is to be linked to East Balts arrival (old anthro claimed East Balt phenotype arrived into Baltics with Flat Graves after 500ish AD) or to Slavic expansion. Or maybe both.
    Lithuanians being more Avar than Latvians kinda point towards East Balts, but Estonians having same-ish levels to Latvians towards Slavs...

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