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Thread: age of most upstream branching of U106

  1. #1
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    age of most upstream branching of U106

    I was looking at a U106 tree and was wondering if anyone had calculated how old the first splits in U106 were? This was the tree I looked at

    http://www.eupedia.com/images/design/R1b-S21-tree.png

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    I don't think there is enough data on them yet, although I've uploaded a working draft of the tree to the R1b-U106 Yahoo Group's file area showing the preliminary upstream branching of L199.1 and L217.1 based on the SNP data collected so far.

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    It would certainly be interesting to know if U106 experienced the same sort of frantic early branching that P312 seems to have had. If they were similar then that suggests a similar cultural background - perhaps within bell beaker - but if they U106 lacks this early branching then perhaps that would be evidence that it wasnt behaving in the same way as beaker-associated P312.

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    U106 Doesn't have as many branches at the very top that P312 has. However, most of the early branches were successful enough in their own right (so they didn't "wither and die").

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    R-U106 may have had as many as 6 or even 7 branches, but we only have publicly available data (FGC, BigY, 1KGP) on 4 of them so far. There are a few (3) other branches that are suggested by Chromo2, but we need public full-Y data to resolve them better.

    The notable part of this, is that those 5 (?) branches that are not Z381 or Z18 are quite rare (relatively speaking), and this seems to be indication of bottle-necking: single-lines of descent with no immediate splitting - such that the new SNPs are ganging together with no immediate splitting. They seem to have missed the boat on participating in the initial Western R1b expansion.

    Of course, new data will help clarifiy, challenge or support this.

  6. #6
    Age estimates for haplogroup U106:
    Bulgaria 15.1 ± 8 ky; Germany 11.1 ±3 ky; France 5.7 ± 1 ky (Karachanak 2013)
    Karachanak 2013-Y-Chromosome Diversity in Modern Bulgarians New Clues about Their Ancestry

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    Quote Originally Posted by rokousa View Post
    Age estimates for haplogroup U106:
    Bulgaria 15.1 ± 8 ky; Germany 11.1 ±3 ky; France 5.7 ± 1 ky (Karachanak 2013)
    Karachanak 2013-Y-Chromosome Diversity in Modern Bulgarians New Clues about Their Ancestry
    These ages were calculated using the erroneous "evolutionary" or "effective" mutation rate.

    Quote Originally Posted by http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0056779
    Time estimates were performed only when more than five observations per population/region were available. Ages based on microsatellite variation within binary haplogroups were defined by the methodology of Zhivotovsky et al. [31] as modified according to Sengupta et al. [32]. In particular, it was estimated as the average squared difference in the number of repeats between all current chromosomes and the median haplotype, averaged over microsatellite loci and divided by the effective mutation rate of 6.9×10−4 per 25 years, with the SE computed over loci [31] (details, in Appendix A of Sengupta et al. [32]. A microsatellite evolutionary effective mutation rate of 6.9×10−4 per generation (25 years) was used [31] since it is suitable for use in situations where the elapsed time frame is ≥1000 years or ~ 40 generations [33], appropriate given the prehistoric time depths explored in this study. It is worth mentioning that ambiguities related to past episodes of population history (e.g.: size fluctuations, bottlenecks, etc) create inherent uncertainties in the calibration of the Y-STR molecular clock, thus the estimated ages of microsatellite variation should be considered with caution.
    More realistic ages would be between 1/2.5 to 1/3 of those quoted.

  8. #8
    hmmm...
    The time estimate values for Serbian R1b1a2-M269(xM412) chromosomes (12.0±3.3 kya) approximate the coalescent times of the R1b1a2-M269 clade across Europe estimated by both Myres et al. (2011) (10.2±1.6 KYA) and Shi et al. (2010)

    p.s.
    Haplotype diversity and mean variance based on 15 loci
    R M173
    Haplotype diversity±SD 0.9951±0.0106
    Mean variance 0.602
    Regueiro 2012-High levels of Paleolithic Y-chromosome lineages characterize Serbia
    please, use your method and give us number of KYA...
    Last edited by rokousa; 08-02-2014 at 07:05 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rokousa View Post
    hmmm...
    The time estimate values for Serbian R1b1a2-M269(xM412) chromosomes (12.0±3.3 kya) approximate the coalescent times of the R1b1a2-M269 clade across Europe estimated by both Myres et al. (2011) (10.2±1.6 KYA) and Shi et al. (2010)

    p.s.
    Haplotype diversity and mean variance based on 15 loci
    R M173
    Haplotype diversity±SD 0.9951±0.0106
    Mean variance 0.602
    Regueiro 2012-High levels of Paleolithic Y-chromosome lineages characterize Serbia
    please, use your method and give us number of KYA...
    Again, Myers used the "effective" rate:
    Quote Originally Posted by http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3039512/
    The ages of various haplogroups in populations were estimated using the methodology described by Zhivotovsky et al,30 modified according to Sengupta et al,10 using the evolutionary effective mutation rate of 6.9 × 10−4 per 25 years. The accuracy and appropriateness of this mutation rate has been independently confirmed in several deep-rooted pedigrees of the Hutterites.31 Important caveats to consider include the fact that coalescent times (Td) is sensitive to authentic rare outlier alleles and that multiple founders during population formation will inflate the age estimate of the event.
    The Hutterite styudy used only 7 locii (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2987252/) It has been observed time and time again in many haplogroup projects that variances derived from extremely short haplotypes have confidence intervals wildly exceeding the variances themselves. Yet professional population geneticists fall into the Zhivotovsky trap time and time again.

    extrapolating.png
    Last edited by VinceT; 08-02-2014 at 06:49 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VinceT View Post
    Again, Myers used the "effective" rate:


    The Hutterite styudy used only 7 locii (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2987252/) It has been observed time and time again in many haplogroup projects that variances derived from extremely short haplotypes have confidence intervals wildly exceeding the variances themselves. Yet professional population geneticists fall into the Zhivotovsky trap time and time again.

    extrapolating.png
    so, are these Hutterites from the Bronze-age ? ............if they are, the area in question belonged to the vindelici people

    The material culture of its inhabitants the Vindelici was La Tène. The ethnic origin of the Vindelici is not certain. Whether they spoke a Celtic (i.e. Gaulish), Germanic, or other Indo-European language is unclear.


    or

    Did they arrive after the fall of the Roman empire?


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