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Thread: Baltic R1a - five years later

  1. #1
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    Baltic R1a - five years later

    Hey everyone,

    5 years ago we had pretty interesting discussion based on knowledge of year 2016. It was fun and even educational for me (in 2021) to go through different posts in that topic:
    https://anthrogenica.com/archive/index.php/t-6611.html

    Couple of Points:
    1) When in doubt listen to Michal. I argued with him that Fatyanovo must have been Z280, when he was ahead of the time and stated it was Z93. Arguments were sound and science proved him right. Well done!
    2) CTS1211 - within these years we have found that Baltic_BA (Latvia and Lithuania) had this already, maybe long dead lines, but still. Don't know what this adds to our common understanding
    3) Z92 - not much else added. Except apparently it is common among Old Prussian heritage Polish nobility and for JR Tolkien (his ancestors came from Tolkkeim, Prussia). If you know of ancient Z92 samples (I think there was one in Early Slavs, the Slavic subclade) let me know.
    4) I honestly dont know what the latest info on Baltic R1a. It seems not much progress has been since 5 years. I.e. there was no any research on Latvians, Lithuanians or Estonians on different R1a (Z92, CTS1211, M458, etc).
    5) "In my opinion, the homeland of CTS1211 was most likely located in a region encompassing Belarus and some neighboring territories (which was more or less where Z92 expanded as well, although I would certainly agree with you that the Z92 expansion center was likely located slightly east to the CTS1211 expansion center), and thus I would rather associate the demographic and territorial expansion of both CTS1211 and Z92 with a birth and expansion of the "Proto-Balto-Slavic" Trzciniec-Komarov-Sosnica complex. Please note that we have some subclades dirrectly under CTS1211 that are seen in Finland/Karelia or in Eastern Europe only, while I am not aware of any such subclade just under CTS1211 that would be specific for Central-Western Europe only (which is inconsistent with your scenario when taking into account a relatively early TMRCA age for CTS1211)." - Michal 2016. Wonder if any new data has changed this opinion.
    6) I already mentioned Barrow Cemeteries with Stone Circles as possible N-M2783 culture in 2016. And in these five years we had a sample Lithuanian_IA_low_quality with L-1025 (father of M2783) detected 3rd AD in North Lithuanian Barrows Culture with Stone Circles.
    7) for next 5 years one of puzzles I have is autosomals of Proto-East-Balts. Going by different models - Latvians and Zhemaitians are heavily Latvian_BA-ish derived population, whereas Aukstaitians are more like 50/50 Latvian_BA and Avar_Szolad (Pre-Slavic? Balto-Slavic?). Question is whether East Balts were Avar_Szolad like and Lat/Zhem got heavy pre-East-Balt substrate (WB, FU, something else); or East Balts were pretty much Latvian_BA and it is Slavic(?) admixture in Aukstaitians making them more Avar like.

    If you got any other additional information to the topic, please share!

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  3. #2
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    I am always surprised by how accurate Michal's predictions are. He was also one of the few here especially among the R1a guys who predicted Yamnaya to be R1b. Belarus + encompassing regions looks after 5 years still if not even more likely as the homeland/growth zone of CTS1211 and Z92. Based on Yfull + 10-15% underestimation Z92 and CTS1211 should form around 3000 B.C but it would take several centuries for both lines to grow enough in numbers to spread in a wider area.

    We have the earliest CTS1211 now in western Lithuania (Spiginas2) around 2000 B.C with earlier samples from the Baltics being pre-Z284 so Lithuania, Latvia or even Estonia can be almost excluded as the homeland of CTS1211 and Z92. Regions east of the Dnepr can be also excluded. There was some Z283/Z280 super likely in Z93-dominated Fatyanovo (see Srubnaya Z280 and Indo-Iranian Z283) but it quite surely was not Z92 or CTS1211. A homeland of these lines west of the Vistula also looks very unlikely because of the CWC/Post-CWC samples west of the Vistula none had these lines and i think Bell Beaker influences were too strong there too. Recently published CWC samples from southeastern Poland turned out to be R1b (around 2300-2500 B.C) and have no drift shared with Balto-Slavs so the border region between Ukraine and South Poland was likely not the area where the Proto-Z92 and Proto-CTS1211 formed.

    All this means in my eyes that Z92 and CTS1211 were around 2500 B.C present somewhere east of the Vistula and west of the Dnjepr but not too close to the Carpathians and East Baltics. Here I also would expect "Balto-Slavic" drift to form.

    I am not so well-read about the Trzciniec-Komarov-Sosnica complex. Are there some articles going deeper into the origins of these cultures? How much was it influenced by non-local CWC cultures from the west or even the east? I know it is said at least for Trzciniec that it developed from Polish late CWC cultures like Mierzanowice, Strzyzow and Iwno but N17 seems to be from Iwno and he has no Balto-Slavic Y-DNA or drift shared with Balto-Slavs so i am somehow sceptical about this (Spiginas2 is almost contemporary and already has Balto-Slavic drift). Or did the Trzciniec-Komarov-Sosnica complex included different IE groups of different origin (Balto-Slavic-related and non-Balto-Slavic related)

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  5. #3
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    Apparently I had ignored Spiginas for too long. I just looked at the map Spiginas (if there is only one Spiginas) is located in West Lithuania. Interesting that Turlojiske (LTU_BA) and Kivutkalns Riga (LVA_BA) are almost equidistant geographically from Spiginas (2h 45 min drive both ways, but Turlojiske is closer as bird flies).
    Since nMonte site dissappeared I could not find another way to do those different analysis, so have to ask someone. How is Spiginas compared to LVA_BA and LTU_BA? Is he in between, or somewhat more on LTU_BA side?

    So, far I think all post-earlyCW (LVA_BA, EST_BA, LTU_BA, EST_IA) R1a samples were CTS1211, if/when they got Y-dna assigned?
    So we can make a statement that CTS1211 guys were roaming Baltic States since at least 2,000 BCE. Of course, it does not mean those had modern Baltic CTS1211 subclades since 2,000 BCE.

    However Z92 has not made its appearance in ancient Baltic dna so far? So, apparently they only arrived into Baltics later, maybe even after AD?
    M458 likely arrived already with Slavs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    Apparently I had ignored Spiginas for too long. I just looked at the map Spiginas (if there is only one Spiginas) is located in West Lithuania. Interesting that Turlojiske (LTU_BA) and Kivutkalns Riga (LVA_BA) are almost equidistant geographically from Spiginas (2h 45 min drive both ways, but Turlojiske is closer as bird flies).
    Since nMonte site dissappeared I could not find another way to do those different analysis, so have to ask someone. How is Spiginas compared to LVA_BA and LTU_BA? Is he in between, or somewhat more on LTU_BA side?

    So, far I think all post-earlyCW (LVA_BA, EST_BA, LTU_BA, EST_IA) R1a samples were CTS1211, if/when they got Y-dna assigned?
    So we can make a statement that CTS1211 guys were roaming Baltic States since at least 2,000 BCE. Of course, it does not mean those had modern Baltic CTS1211 subclades since 2,000 BCE.

    However Z92 has not made its appearance in ancient Baltic dna so far? So, apparently they only arrived into Baltics later, maybe even after AD?
    M458 likely arrived already with Slavs.
    LTU_BA had Z92+
    Turlojiske3 (1 sample), Lithuania, Bronze Age, 1010–800 BC, R1a-Z92>Y4459>YP617

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coldmountains View Post
    LTU_BA had Z92+
    Thanks! If there is any other Z92 let me know!

    YP617 branch is very interesting
    YP1700: formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 3100 ybp = Czechs & Swedes
    Y44407 * Y42866 * Y44689+13 SNPs formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 1500 ybp = South Slavs
    Y30662 * Y29965 formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 3500 ybp = one branch Scandinavs, other branch West Slavs (TMRCA for both branches 2,200 ybp), kinda Czechs & Swedes again

    YP573 * YP577 * FGC72821 formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 3300 ybp = big one, probably must split into subbranches
    ----R-YP573* = Italian
    ----Y85137 * Y111948 * FT189777+1 SNPsformed 1950 ybp, TMRCA 550 ybp = Russian
    ----Y11268 * YP1256formed 1950 ybp, TMRCA 1950 ybp = Russian (Kursk, Ryazan) mostly, but Belarus, Ukraine, Poland and one Lithuanian sample
    ----FGC85401 * FGC72841(H) * Y5570formed 1950 ybp, TMRCA 1800 ybp = another big branch
    ----------------Y136486 * Y136471 * Y136527+7 SNPsformed 1800 ybp, TMRCA 375 ybp = Tatarstan (!), just like M2783 samples who had some drive towards Tatars, Kursk, etc, but very early TMRCA
    ----------------R-YP682YP682(H) * YP683 * YP684(H)formed 1800 ybp, TMRCA 1750 ybp = again must split
    -----------------------------------7 different Russian subbranches
    -----------------------------------Y152139 * Y60295 * BY31021/Y61476formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1150 ybp = Lithuanian, but not very big
    -----------------------------------BY32094 * Y153989formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1300 ybp = Russia, Norway, Lithuania
    -----------------------------------Y87093formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1250 ybp = Finland, Poland
    -----------------------------------Y5571 * YP612 formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1150 yb = Ukraine
    -----------------------------------Y153185 * Y153215/BY161630 formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1750 ybp = Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania
    -----------------------------------VK05 formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1750 ybp = Russia Pskov + St Peterburg
    -----------------------------------YP1698 * YP1699formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1750 ybp = Russians, Belorussians, one Tatar sample
    -----------------------------------Y178265 * A8998formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1500 ybp = Fenno Russians (Finns, Estonian, Ulyanovsk, Smolensk, North Belarus)
    -----------------------------------FT80289formed 1750 ybp, TMRCA 1650 ybp = big branch, mostly Russians and Ukrainians, Kazakh and Tatar also

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    To sum up on his relatives:
    1) one group split very deep long time ago -> one part went Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, etc), other part went West Slavs (Czech, Slovak, Polish), two such lines independently split. Interesting what historical events made this split. Goths arrival into mouth of Vistula with part of men going into Scandinavian network, other part finding new life South?
    2) some very big modern Russian group, from which some part likely went to Lithuania somewhere 700-800 AD or so, others stayed in Russia and whereabouts (Russia, Ukraine, some Finnic folk next to Russian North). So called Dnieper Balts? Alternative is again early AD spread from South East Baltics to Russia. Because all those numerous Russian branches seem to have TMRCA at early AD.

    So, I got two theories. One this Z92 group was West Balts sitting in South East Baltic. With Gothic turbulences part of them joined Scandinavian network, part of them went South to West Slavs, part of them went East to Russia (with some backmigrating to Lithuania 700-800 AD).
    Or it was two groups - one sitting in SE Lithuania (LTU_BA) and other somewhere North and East in Russia.

    Edit: likely the second because one step higher there are few other sub branches of Y4459, with similar Russian centred geography (one branch Russia, one West Slavs, one Russia/Ukraine/Poland)
    Last edited by parastais; 06-11-2021 at 10:23 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by parastais View Post
    To sum up on his relatives:
    1) one group split very deep long time ago -> one part went Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, etc), other part went West Slavs (Czech, Slovak, Polish), two such lines independently split. Interesting what historical events made this split. Goths arrival into mouth of Vistula with part of men going into Scandinavian network, other part finding new life South?
    2) some very big modern Russian group, from which some part likely went to Lithuania somewhere 700-800 AD or so, others stayed in Russia and whereabouts (Russia, Ukraine, some Finnic folk next to Russian North). So called Dnieper Balts? Alternative is again early AD spread from South East Baltics to Russia. Because all those numerous Russian branches seem to have TMRCA at early AD.

    So, I got two theories. One this Z92 group was West Balts sitting in South East Baltic. With Gothic turbulences part of them joined Scandinavian network, part of them went South to West Slavs, part of them went East to Russia (with some backmigrating to Lithuania 700-800 AD).
    Or it was two groups - one sitting in SE Lithuania (LTU_BA) and other somewhere North and East in Russia.

    Edit: likely the second because one step higher there are few other sub branches of Y4459, with similar Russian centred geography (one branch Russia, one West Slavs, one Russia/Ukraine/Poland)
    I could find this Z92 among early Slavs.

    POH28 (1474-850 ybp) R-Z92>R-Y4459>R-Y84739>Y88962 https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Y88962/

    VK156 (1050-850 ybp) R-Z92>Z685>YP270>YP351 https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-YP351/

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    Now on to other Z92... going through the Y-Full and analysing branches.

    One unique sample from ... Germany.

    And the second biggest group besides "Russian" Z92-Y4459 is Z92-Z685. It has one unique Ukrainian sample at the root, and is split in two big groups again - Z1907 and YP270.

    Starting with Z1907 (S3354 * Z1907formed 4300 ybp, TMRCA 4300 ybp):
    R-Z1907* = Ukrainian, again Ukraine at the root
    R-CTS214S3343 * YP4366 * YP4370+9 SNPsformed 3700 ybp, TMRCA 2400 ybp = Russo Fennic (Finland, Estonia, Irkutsk Ru, Kirov Ru)
    YP5611/FGC45976 * YP5612/FGC45989 * YP5615/FGC46006+19 SNPsformed 3700 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp = also Russo Fennic but this time more Russian (Russia, Finland, one Latvian family)

    And now YP270, R-YP270YP272 * Y3145(H) * S3377+5 SNPsformed 4300 ybp, TMRCA 3100 ybp = this is bigger than previous, with two big lines under it
    YP1407 * CTS654 * Y201693+5 SNPsformed 3100 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp = big line #1 - the SE Baltic kinda one with unique * Riga sample, then step below unique * Polish sample, then step below unique * 3 samples (Estonia, Montenegro, Italy? 2,300 bp)
    ----YP1405 * Y190128 * S3382(H)+1 SNPsformed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp = * German and * Belarus samples
    ----FT88584 * PH4963formed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp = Polish (from Lithuania) and Finn
    ----YP4485 * Y17699formed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 1850 ybp = Irkutsk, Poland, Lithuania, each one sample
    YP351 * Y24031 * YP352+7 SNPsformed 3100 ybp, TMRCA 2400 ybp = also kinda SE Baltics - including few ancient dna vk156 (North Poland) and vk64 (Gotland)
    ----YP4310 * Y16755 * BY27247+3 SNPsformed 2400 ybp, TMRCA 2000 ybp = Russian
    ----Y235069 * Y80733 * BY58559+9 SNPsformed 2400 ybp, TMRCA 1900 ybp = Adyghey (Russia), Sweden, aDNA from Gotland
    ----YP4460formed 2400 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp = Russian, Polish
    ----YP350formed 2400 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp = very unclear branch, but has Lithuanian at the root *
    -----------FT196931formed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp = Mazuria, Ukraine, Russia, Estonia
    -----------FT141242 * Y42738 * FT136470(H)+1 SNPsformed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 1750 ybp = Sweddish, Norwegian, Polish, Belarussian (again this Scando-West Slav connection)

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    To sum up again:
    Z92 is not productive in East Balts.
    It is very productive in Russians (including Northern Russians -> Finnic speakers)
    there are some West Slavic specific clades
    And it has some flirt with SE Baltic - Scandinavian region

    Kinda like there was a massive of Z92 in Russia and some part of it very early BCE migrated to Old Prussia and whereabouts where participated in some circum Baltic affairs early AD. But they did not play any significant role in modern East Baltic ethnogenesys.

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    Alternative version is to consider an expansion from SE Baltics to North East somewhere during so called West Baltic Golden Age (amber trade with Rome, lots of trade around Baltics) early AD to semi-empty Russian forests. But I don’t know archeology for this. Although some Belarusian archeologysts were toying with such an idea to explain area of Baltic hydronyms. Gonna look for their works.

    Somehow they went around Letto-Lithuanians in this expansion though.

    edit: wrote about amber trade and got why there are some distinct root Italian sample(s)...
    Last edited by parastais; 06-11-2021 at 12:14 PM.

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