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Thread: Rethinking near eastern (read: levantine) ancestry in Mainland Greeks

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michalis Moriopoulos View Post
    We're actually not underestimating it, we just don't know exactly how to model them them yet so as to accurately distinguish putative medieval South Slavic-like ancestry from pre-Slavic Paleobalkan ancestry. We have good reason to hypothesize IA Northern Greeks (especially Macedonians) will pack plenty of such Paleobalkan ancestry. I do not think for a second that Macedonians will look identical to Mycenaeans. I suspect they will be mostly Paleobalkan-like. I suspect the IA Bulgarian will turn out to be an outlier and that most Thracians will look more like Logkas or Croatia IA. We know Greeks have true blue Slavic ancestry because of IBD sharing (with Poles and Ukrainians), but it's not easy to say exactly how much.
    Quote Originally Posted by altvred View Post
     


     


    These are the same Albanians as the ones on G25. qpAdm, and G25, showing the same results.



    Why not? I suspect that most - or at the very least a large chunk of Slavic-related admixture arrived in Greece sometime between the 6th and 10th centuries.

    Thessalonica was first reportedly besieged by a combined Avar-Slavic army in 617 AD. Even if they didn't start settling Greece-proper that early, Slavic tribes were already present in significant numbers in territories bordering it. Just a few decades before attacking Thessalonica, Slavs and Avars breached the Danubian Limes and sacked several major cities, including Singidunum, which is where Belgrade is located now.

    The Avar_Szolad (AV2) sample is carbon-dated to roughly the same period and is from Pannonia - not that far from the borders of the Byzantine Empire. Thus, I find it highly unlikely that upon reaching the Balkans in the 6th century, Slavs instantly obtained the present-day South Slavic genetic profile.

    There are unadmixed Slavic individuals dated to the high/late middle ages in Saxony (Krakauer_Berg). Granted the former Roman territories were far more densely populated than East Germany, it would have taken some time until the modern Southern Slavic genetic profile arose. So the earliest influx of Slavic migrants into Greece would have been genetically more akin to Av2 than modern Bulgarians or Serbs.



    There's a massive gap after the BA with aDNA from the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, especially compared to the abundance of the Neolithic ones. Correct me if I'm wrong, but afaik aDNA samples closest to modern Greeks are actually from Spain (Empuries2), which is very telling how undersampled the Aegean/Balkans in this period are.

    The Slavic admixture is there but quantifying it is a big issue until we have post-BA, pre-Slavic aDNA samples from those regions. So we should take these numbers with a grain of salt.
    So in other words, modern mainland Greeks harbor owe only about 50% of their ancestry to Hellenic Greeks living in what is now Greece then? And the rest coming from South Slavs?

    How is THIS even possible?
    Target: Greek_Izmir
    Distance: 1.0252% / 0.01025151
    64.4 ITA_Rome_Imperial
    35.6 Serbian

    I can understand mainland Greeks, but Izmir on the western coast of Turkey? How

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    Many western turkish greeks are of recent mainland extraction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michalis Moriopoulos View Post
    Clusters mostly with West Meds. But notice also Helladic MBA (Logkas), the Proto-Villanovan, and Greek Thessaly popping up below:

    Pop Distances
    Distance to: HRV_IA:I3313
    0.02400696 Italian_Lombardy
    0.02684022 Italian_Bergamo
    0.03075080 ITA_Proto-Villanovan
    0.03098048 Italian_Piedmont
    0.03132283 Italian_Veneto
    0.03220282 GRC_Helladic_MBA
    0.03232243 Italian_Trentino-Alto-Adige
    0.03361349 ITA_Etruscan
    0.03503135 Italian_Liguria
    0.03523518 Swiss_Italian
    0.03570296 French_Corsica
    0.03623112 Italian_Tuscany
    0.03663972 HRV_MBA
    0.03842617 Greek_Thessaly
    0.03881656 Bell_Beaker_ITA
    0.03893473 Italian_Northeast
    0.04031555 ITA_Rome_MA
    0.04186317 Italian_Marche
    0.04203788 Spanish_Mallorca
    0.04216678 Spanish_Baleares
    0.04240815 Spanish_Eivissa
    0.04248741 Spanish_Menorca
    0.04263746 French_Provence
    0.04294519 Spanish_Terres_de_l'Ebre

    Individual Distances
    Distance to: HRV_IA:I3313
    0.02786582 Italian_Lombardy_Bergamo:HGDP01153
    0.02874528 Italian_Piedmont:ItalyPiedmont98
    0.02911206 Italian_Trentino-Alto_Adige:ALP395
    0.02936488 Italian_Lombardy:BGD301
    0.02985515 Italian_Veneto:ALP040
    0.02993302 Italian_Lombardy:ALP288
    0.03044751 Italian_Tuscany:Tuscany98
    0.03066397 Italian_Veneto:ALP209
    0.03075080 Italy_Proto-Villanovan_Abruzzo:RMPR1
    0.03075272 Italian_Lombardy:BGD31
    0.03139027 Italian_Lombardy:BGD28
    0.03144270 French_Corsica:CorsicaS04208
    0.03148510 Italian_Lombardy_Bergamo:HGDP01151
    0.03170552 Italian_Piedmont:ItalyPiedmont43
    0.03199745 Italian_Lombardy:BGD103
    0.03241358 Italian_Lombardy_Bergamo:HGDP01155
    0.03250232 Italian_Veneto:KF1803109
    0.03286488 Italian_Friuli_Venezia_Giulia:KF1800761
    0.03333304 Italy_Medieval_Collegno_Southern_Profile:CL36
    0.03342391 Croatia_MBA:I4331
    0.03343336 French_Corsica:Corsica14708
    0.03358652 Italian_Veneto:ALP322
    0.03374504 Italian_Veneto:Alp401
    0.03388409 Italy_Medieval_Rome_Central_Italian_Profile:RMPR12 87

    Basic Components Run
    61.4% ANF
    35.2% Steppe EMBA
    3.4% WHG
    Hmm, both @you and the rest of the thread, isn't this quite different from present-day Albanians? Don't present-day Albanians have a lot more of an Eastern Mediterranean profile? Do we think that profile came from Greeks, or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by altvred View Post
     


     


    These are the same Albanians as the ones on G25. qpAdm, and G25, showing the same results.



    Why not? I suspect that most - or at the very least a large chunk of Slavic-related admixture arrived in Greece sometime between the 6th and 10th centuries.

    Thessalonica was first reportedly besieged by a combined Avar-Slavic army in 617 AD. Even if they didn't start settling Greece-proper that early, Slavic tribes were already present in significant numbers in territories bordering it. Just a few decades before attacking Thessalonica, Slavs and Avars breached the Danubian Limes and sacked several major cities, including Singidunum, which is where Belgrade is located now.

    The Avar_Szolad (AV2) sample is carbon-dated to roughly the same period and is from Pannonia - not that far from the borders of the Byzantine Empire. Thus, I find it highly unlikely that upon reaching the Balkans in the 6th century, Slavs instantly obtained the present-day South Slavic genetic profile.

    There are unadmixed Slavic individuals dated to the high/late middle ages in Saxony (Krakauer_Berg). Granted the former Roman territories were far more densely populated than East Germany, it would have taken some time until the modern Southern Slavic genetic profile arose. So the earliest influx of Slavic migrants into Greece would have been genetically more akin to Av2 than modern Bulgarians or Serbs.



    There's a massive gap after the BA with aDNA from the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, especially compared to the abundance of the Neolithic ones. Correct me if I'm wrong, but afaik aDNA samples closest to modern Greeks are actually from Spain (Empuries2), which is very telling how undersampled the Aegean/Balkans in this period are.

    The Slavic admixture is there but quantifying it is a big issue until we have post-BA, pre-Slavic aDNA samples from those regions. So we should take these numbers with a grain of salt.
    Don't East Med elements (e.g. increased Iran_N/Anatolia_EBA type-ancestry) begin increasing from Hungary southwards? How can a Slav + a West_Med profile produce a Balkanite? Not challenging your models, just think I'm missing something here (maybe Croatia_EIA already had some of this type of ancestry?)
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    So in other words, modern mainland Greeks harbor owe only about 50% of their ancestry to Hellenic Greeks living in what is now Greece then? And the rest coming from South Slavs?

    How is THIS even possible?
    Target: Greek_Izmir
    Distance: 1.0252% / 0.01025151
    64.4 ITA_Rome_Imperial
    35.6 Serbian

    I can understand mainland Greeks, but Izmir on the western coast of Turkey? How
    Possible, but itís not what the posters you are quoting claimed.

    Wait for more than a handful of bronze age samples and then we will be able to quantify it.

    Much like was previously stated, the first mentions of Slavic raids/settlement in Greece date as early as the 6th century
    Earlier waves might resemble north Slavs to a greater extent than later ones, while also you need to take into account that the samples we currently have are probably imperfect proxies for pre Slavic northern mainlanders, but I guess we will see.
    Last edited by iluvatar; 08-01-2021 at 12:34 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by altvred View Post
    There's a massive gap after the BA with aDNA from the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, especially compared to the abundance of the Neolithic ones. Correct me if I'm wrong, but afaik aDNA samples closest to modern Greeks are actually from Spain (Empuries2), which is very telling how undersampled the Aegean/Balkans in this period are.
    For Macedonians, the closest post-BA/pre-medieval samples are Italian Late Antiquity, Scythian Moldova, and Croatia IA. Only once you stray into .05 territory distances do Etruscans, the Cimmerian outlier, Bulgaria IA, the IA/Republic Latin outliers, and the potentially Galatian Anatolia IA sample show up.

    For Peloponnesians, the closest post-BA/pre-medieval samples are the Italian Late Antiquity samples, followed by Scythian Moldova, the IA/Republic Latin outliers, Bulgaria IA, and the Cimmerian outlier. Only once you cross into .05 territory distances do Bulgaria IA, Imperial Roman average, Etruscans, and the potentially Galatian Anatolia IA sample show up.

    For Cretans, the Imperial Roman average is the closest of the post-BA/pre-medieval samples by a country mile, followed by the Italian Late Antiquity samples, then the IA/Republic Latin outliers. Only once you stray into .05 territory distances do Emporiotes, Bulgaria IA, and Ashkelon IA1 appear. For Dodecanese, same situation except Ashkelon IA1 appears further up the list.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynic View Post
    So in other words, modern mainland Greeks harbor owe only about 50% of their ancestry to Hellenic Greeks living in what is now Greece then? And the rest coming from South Slavs?
    I don't know. I've tried running models with both Paleobalkan references (Helladic MBA, Croatia IA) and Avar Szolad ("pure" Polish/Ukrainian-like Slavic proxy) together to see if anything sensible comes out of it.

    With Slavic proxy:



    Without Slavic proxy the fit is noticeably worse:



    I wouldn't take any of this too literally. Do Aegean Greeks really have almost no Mycenaean/Emporiote ancestry? I doubt it. Cypriots clearly shouldn't have Slavic ancestry either so that should be your first clue that some of the northern affinity in Greeks is misattributed to the "pure Slavic" proxy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    Hmm, both @you and the rest of the thread, isn't this quite different from present-day Albanians? Don't present-day Albanians have a lot more of an Eastern Mediterranean profile? Do we think that profile came from Greeks, or what?
    I don't know what to make of Albanians and haven't spent any time modelling them. I am hoping we get a transect from Albania one day as I am quite interested in their ethnogenesis. But I've just been too busy trying to figure out my own people.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    Don't East Med elements (e.g. increased Iran_N/Anatolia_EBA type-ancestry) begin increasing from Hungary southwards? How can a Slav + a West_Med profile produce a Balkanite? Not challenging your models, just think I'm missing something here (maybe Croatia_EIA already had some of this type of ancestry?)
    This is a very good question and should be explored further. If Anatolian BA-like ancestry doesn't really express itself in ancient IA/classical era Balkan samples north of Greece but does appear in later peoples of the same area (moderns included), that suggests Hellenistic Greek or Imperial Roman gene flow, no?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cynic View Post
    How is THIS even possible?
    Target: Greek_Izmir
    Distance: 1.0252% / 0.01025151
    64.4 ITA_Rome_Imperial
    35.6 Serbian

    I can understand mainland Greeks, but Izmir on the western coast of Turkey? How
    The G25 Smyrniotes are mixed between Aegean and Balkan Greek profiles, and one outlier pulls toward Cappadocian Greeks. Western Anatolia was a cosmopolitan mixed-up place. Many Northern Pontic Greeks from Ukraine (Azov Greeks) are bound to be similarly mixed because there has been a lot of migration from Balkan and Greek islanders to that area historically, adding to the native Pontic-like profile (with potential Crimean Tatar and Slavic admixture, to boot). Basically radically different types of Greeks have freely mixed with each other quite a bit even in modern history (let alone antiquity). The lines are blurred, so we will need older historic samples to understand what Western Anatolian Greeks were like in, say, the Byzantine period. We are very lucky to have Pontic and Cappadocian Greek profiles. These seem refreshingly straightforward compared to the rest of the Greek world where the details are fuzzy.
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    How would hungarians have this geneflow though? Most moldovans also show it so I'm thinking more caparthian/eastern-balkan affinities (possibly some ghost-caucauses source since Vonyuchka eats up all the Iran_N in Albanians and moldovans). Interesting nonetheless. There are also

    IMO: The sources are: Croatia_EIA/Logkas type Paleobalkan, Carpathian/Dacian Type Paleobalkan, and Aegean. I think the carpathian type harbors some steppe-enolithic type ancestry that is more "chg rich"; this is shown with paleobalkan ancients that have their iranian absorbed by vonyuchka/progress (shown by davidski to not contain Iran_N but a basal CHG ofshoot) and the same phenomenon appears in Albanians/Romanians/Moldovans (E-V13 connection?)
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by darknorman11; 08-01-2021 at 01:52 AM.

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    Wrong pictures sorry. AncientsBefore.PNGAncientsAfter.PNGModernsBefore.PNGModernsAfter.PNG

    Steppe eneolithic ---> progress, vonyuchka, khvalynsk; David's qpgraph runs showed they have additional ancestry from a ghost CHG pop. and not Iran_N.

    Picture 1 - ancients without steppe eneolithic
    Picture 2 - ancients with steppe eneolithic
    Picture 3 - moderns without steppe eneolithic
    Picture 4 - moderns with steppe eneolithic

    Look at how the steppe eneolithic eats up the iranian in both groups... could definitely be a signal of some other paleobalkan strain.

    Edit, posting individual Romanians/Moldovans now because the second affect is not displaying in the population averages of those two nations.
    Last edited by darknorman11; 08-01-2021 at 02:03 AM.

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    Attachment 45835Attachment 45836Attachment 45837Attachment 45838

    Also important to remember this effect is less apparent due to their admixture (Moldovans are 1/2 between Albanians and Ukrainians).

    If I knew how to fully run admixtools this would be much easier Lol.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by darknorman11; 08-01-2021 at 02:16 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michalis Moriopoulos View Post
    I don't know. I've tried running models with both Paleobalkan references (Helladic MBA, Croatia IA) and Avar Szolad ("pure" Polish/Ukrainian-like Slavic proxy) together to see if anything sensible comes out of it.

    With Slavic proxy:



    Without Slavic proxy the fit is noticeably worse:



    I wouldn't take any of this too literally. Do Aegean Greeks really have almost no Mycenaean/Emporiote ancestry? I doubt it. Cypriots clearly shouldn't have Slavic ancestry either so that should be your first clue that some of the northern affinity in Greeks is misattributed to the "pure Slavic" proxy.



    I don't know what to make of Albanians and haven't spent any time modelling them. I am hoping we get a transect from Albania one day as I am quite interested in their ethnogenesis. But I've just been too busy trying to figure out my own people.



    This is a very good question and should be explored further. If Anatolian BA-like ancestry doesn't really express itself in ancient IA/classical era Balkan samples north of Greece but does appear in later peoples of the same area (moderns included), that suggests Hellenistic Greek or Imperial Roman gene flow, no?



    The G25 Smyrniotes are mixed between Aegean and Balkan Greek profiles, and one outlier pulls toward Cappadocian Greeks. Western Anatolia was a cosmopolitan mixed-up place. Many Northern Pontic Greeks from Ukraine (Azov Greeks) are bound to be similarly mixed because there has been a lot of migration from Balkan and Greek islanders to that area historically, adding to the native Pontic-like profile (with potential Crimean Tatar and Slavic admixture, to boot). Basically radically different types of Greeks have freely mixed with each other quite a bit even in modern history (let alone antiquity). The lines are blurred, so we will need older historic samples to understand what Western Anatolian Greeks were like in, say, the Byzantine period. We are very lucky to have Pontic and Cappadocian Greek profiles. These seem refreshingly straightforward compared to the rest of the Greek world where the details are fuzzy.
    Greeks really are the Mediterranean's analogue to the Indo-European steppe herders, spreading their ancestry far and wide from mainland Greece into Anatolia, southern Italy, the Levant, all across the Black sea, even the Caucasus at various points in history all the while mixing with the natives and becoming heavily mixed in their homeland. Granted there are huge differences such as the Greeks being a coastal seafaring and settled people but Im focusing on the genetic and cultural contribution. Its incredible.
    Last edited by Cynic; 08-01-2021 at 04:08 AM.

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