Poll: In which century is the coalescence/MRCA date for L151?

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Thread: The most recent common ancestor of L151+ clades

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    The most recent common ancestor of L151+ clades

    During which century BCE do you think mutations U106, P312, S1194, and A8053 formed? In other words, during which century was the coalescence or MRCA date for L151?
    Meanwhile feel free to spar and squabble about the details in this thread. This is something I have wondered about for a long time so I welcome any data with open arms. To make good art of phylogenetic structures I need that sweet sweet historical context
    Last edited by sheepslayer; 08-31-2021 at 09:49 PM. Reason: Thought A8053 was A8039
    Most of my family is from Tennessee, though a few of my ancestors are from adjacent areas of North Carolina and Georgia. My paternal line is positive for Z30682, underneath J-Z7671 and Y11200.

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    My rudimentary, pedestrian opinion favors the 3000s BC just based on the fact that the Czech dude from the 2900s BC is supposedly within the first few generations of U106+ people. But up until that Czech paper I was just willing to assume it happened during the 2900s BC. I think this is really going to goof some of my calculations but hey this was to be expected
    Most of my family is from Tennessee, though a few of my ancestors are from adjacent areas of North Carolina and Georgia. My paternal line is positive for Z30682, underneath J-Z7671 and Y11200.

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    Every time, I think I have a handle on P312 formation, new information pushes it back more.

    As I posted elsewhere, our possible oldest surviving DF19 is a [6 SNP block] Z302 sub of a [5 SNP] DF19 sub of [5 SNP block] P312. RISE563 is at least 6 SNPs before P312.

    So how many years, on average, do we assign per SNP?

    U152: I4144/RISE563 2572–2512 cal BCE, BB_Germany_BAVm (Bell Beaker Bavaria) Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany [very close to Bohemia]
    DF19: I5748 Netherlands Bell Beaker, PRJEB23635​. 2579-2211 cal BCE Noord-Holland, Oostwoud, De Tuithoorn Netherlands [Rhine mouth/West Frisia]
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>BY44243

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Thomas Gunn (DF19) b1605; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    Every time, I think I have a handle on P312 formation, new information pushes it back more.

    As I posted elsewhere, our possible oldest surviving DF19 is a [6 SNP block] Z302 sub of a [5 SNP] DF19 sub of [5 SNP block] P312. RISE563 is at least 6 SNPs before P312.

    So how many years, on average, do we assign per SNP?

    U152: I4144/RISE563 2572–2512 cal BCE, BB_Germany_BAVm (Bell Beaker Bavaria) Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany [very close to Bohemia]
    DF19: I5748 Netherlands Bell Beaker, PRJEB23635​. 2579-2211 cal BCE Noord-Holland, Oostwoud, De Tuithoorn Netherlands [Rhine mouth/West Frisia]
    I feel like we wouldn't have to wonder so much if it wasn't such a wacky silly endeavor to detect DF27 in ancient samples. But alas
    Most of my family is from Tennessee, though a few of my ancestors are from adjacent areas of North Carolina and Georgia. My paternal line is positive for Z30682, underneath J-Z7671 and Y11200.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sheepslayer View Post
    During which century BCE do you think mutations U106, P312, S1194, and A8039 formed? In other words, during which century was the coalescence or MRCA date for L151?
    Meanwhile feel free to spar and squabble about the details in this thread. This is something I have wondered about for a long time so I welcome any data with open arms. To make good art of phylogenetic structures I need that sweet sweet historical context
    A8039 is a part of S1194. A8053 is the other brother.

    You can just look at the tree. Go to the variants view for the R-L151 haplotree and you can see the number of variants in each phylogenetic block.

    https://www.familytreedna.com/public.../R;name=R-L151

    U106 and S1194 only have one SNP in their phylogenetic equivalent blocks.
    P312 and A8503 have two SNPs each.

    They are all about the same age and not much younger than L151.

    Given it is very unlikely that the Early Corded Ware Czech U106 guy was the founder, since he was at 2900 BC I think we'd have to put a best guess on the U106 MRCA as 3000 BC and the L151 MRCA as 3100 BC.

    Since we have tens of thousands of NGS tests with high coverage for these subclades 50 years per SNP (rather than 83 for standard SNPs in a single Big Y700) is as good as rough mutation rate as you can get. [Edit:Iain McDonald doesn't recommend this as WingGenealogist explains, although I still think it is a valid guess.]

    So I would guess the MRCAs for U106 and S1194 each lived about 3000 BC and the MRCAs for P312 and A8053 about 2950 BC.

    DF27 and U152 would each be about 2850 BC (2 SNPs downstream).
    L21 would be about 2700 BC (5 SNPs downstream).
    Last edited by TigerMW; 09-01-2021 at 04:03 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    A8039 is a part of S1194. A8053 is the other brother.

    You can just look at the tree. Go to the variants view for the R-L151 haplotree and you can see the number of variants in each phylogenetic block.

    https://www.familytreedna.com/public.../R;name=R-L151

    U106 and S1194 only have one SNP in their phylogenetic equivalent blocks.
    P312 and A8503 have two SNPs each.

    They are all about the same age and not much younger than L151.

    Given it is very unlikely that the Early Corded Ware Czech U106 guy was the founder, since he was at 2900 BC I think we'd have to put a best guess on the U106 MRCA as 3000 BC and the L151 MRCA as 3100 BC.

    Since we have tens of thousands of NGS tests with high coverage for these subclades 50 years per SNP (rather than 83 for standard SNPs in a single Big Y700) is as good as rough mutation rate as you can get. Iain McDonald suggested this.

    So I would guess the MRCAs for U106 and S1194 each lived about 3000 BC and the MRCAs for P312 and A8053 about 2950 BC.

    DF27 and U152 would each be about 2850 BC (2 SNPs downstream).
    L21 would be about 2700 BC (5 SNPs downstream).
    So, that fits what many assume anyway - L21 likely emerged at the west end of the CW after the mad dash west by early CW prior to the big rise of R1a CW pushing west through central Europe behind it. As far as I can ascertain, CW is dated to as early as 2800BC on the Lower Rhine and about 2750BC at the upper end of the Rhine around north Switzerland. Whichever end of the Rhine, it would seem L21 arose there 2-4 generations after a P312xU152 clan ancestral to L21 had made it there. The very strongly northern trajectory of L21 expansion in beaker times suggests L21 was primarily a Rhenish CW groups. You could argue that the lack of evidence of beaker era L21 in Iberia suggests that the Rhone route to the south and west was not open to them. Kind of does suggest that at least by 2450BC L21 was most likely in the mid to upper Rhine.

    However, the way that L21, U152 and DF27 all clearly had their big expansions in the same period c. 2500-2400BC and under the same culture (bell beaker), DESPITE their common P312 ancestor likely being c. 500 years earlier needs to be explain. It kind of suggests that all those main P312 subclades remained in very close contact for many centuries after their common ancestor. A case could be made that all the big three P312 clades remained located along the Rhine and still in close communication from say 2800-2500BC. Otherwise its almost impossible to explain how they all expanded under the same culture at about the same time despite the common ancestor being 4 or 5 centuries earlier.

    Best I can come up with is they arrived as a small unified P312 tribe or clan (then made up of people of a common ancestor only c. 150 years earlier) at the Rhine c. 2800BC - basically a clan with a common great great great grandfather or similar, That sort of clan composed of people out to 4th cousins is actually similar to the maximum stretch of relationship of the landowning clan with shared interest in clan land inheritance in early Irish gaelic laws. So it is a viable size of group to still be operating as a unified unit. In Ireland, members of that kind of landowning level of clan often had a lot of children as land would be intermittently redistributed to allow for this. I

    wouldnt be surprised if there were several hundred cousins or various degrees in such a 6 or so generation deep clan from a common ancestor by 2800BC. However, not enough to do anything major. Probably one of the reasons why P312 didnt really explode until 300 years after 2800BC is that it needed that time to build up a really significant population. As well as absorb advantageous ideas and technology from the more advance non-IE people in France to the west.

    If they arrived as a single unified 6 generation deep clan around 2800BC, they probably would have been splitting into still in close contact but gradually separating groups in that period 2800-2500BC. Clan type structures start to snap after 6 or 7 generations and usually fission into multiple branches who operate separately for stuff like inheritance and politics. So, I suspect P312 hypothetically on the Rhine from 2800BC may have started to form distinctive subgroups over the following centuries. The geography of the diffusion of the three main subclades of P312 in the era 2500-2400BC or so suggests that they occupied distinct stretches of the Rhine by beaker times and perhaps for a good number of generations before thought they must still have been in close contact. A configuration with the three main P312 subclades distributed in CW along different stretches of the Rhine would fit IMO. Probably L21 in the Lower to Middle Rhine, U152 in the Middle to Upper Rhine and DF27 likely in the Rhine-Rhone interfluve zone around Alsace. These locations of the P312 subclades in later CW times would explain how they could be close enough and within the Rhine communication corridor to all develop the beaker culture c. 2500-2400BC but also follow the distinct predominant directions of expansion into the respective zones where they would then dominate in beaker times.

    NB I am not arguing in absolutes, just very strong trends.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    A8039 is a part of S1194. A8053 is the other brother.
    Thank you, I had the two confused
    Most of my family is from Tennessee, though a few of my ancestors are from adjacent areas of North Carolina and Georgia. My paternal line is positive for Z30682, underneath J-Z7671 and Y11200.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    [snip]
    Since we have tens of thousands of NGS tests with high coverage for these subclades 50 years per SNP (rather than 83 for standard SNPs in a single Big Y700) is as good as rough mutation rate as you can get. Iain McDonald suggested this. [snip]
    I need to make a correction, as I believe I am the source for stating Iain McDonald was stating the 83 years/SNP should be reduced to 50 years/SNP by the time we get back to L151, U106 and P312. I was incorrectly interpreting what Iain was saying. Iain has privately informed me the 83 years/SNP pertains to all Big Y-700 results, no matter how long ago the individual lived. This is basically a moot point, because there isn't anywhere near enough DNA from ancient samples to run a Big Y-700 result. The important point is that the 50 years/SNP estimate (which I incorrectly attributed to Iain) is wrong.

    Iain has stated that by the time we get back to the origins of L151, U106 & P312 we are able to place SNP results which do not appear in most Big Y-700 tests. He agrees the years/SNP does lower somewhat, but he does not give any quantitative amount of how much it should be lowered. His estimated dating for the earliest clades of U106 appeared to show 50 year intervals between SNPs, so I was using that figure. However this method is overly simplistic and covers only a tiny fraction of both the time period and the haplogroups of human history. Due to the random nature of SNP mutations, any tiny sliver (such as this one) may be quite far removed from the correct mutation rate.
    Gedmatch DNA: M032736 Gedcom: 6613110.
    Gedmatch Genesis: WH4547538
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    A8039 is a part of S1194. A8053 is the other brother.

    You can just look at the tree. Go to the variants view for the R-L151 haplotree and you can see the number of variants in each phylogenetic block.

    https://www.familytreedna.com/public.../R;name=R-L151

    U106 and S1194 only have one SNP in their phylogenetic equivalent blocks.
    P312 and A8503 have two SNPs each.

    They are all about the same age and not much younger than L151.

    Given it is very unlikely that the Early Corded Ware Czech U106 guy was the founder, since he was at 2900 BC I think we'd have to put a best guess on the U106 MRCA as 3000 BC and the L151 MRCA as 3100 BC.

    Since we have tens of thousands of NGS tests with high coverage for these subclades 50 years per SNP (rather than 83 for standard SNPs in a single Big Y700) is as good as rough mutation rate as you can get. Iain McDonald suggested this.

    So I would guess the MRCAs for U106 and S1194 each lived about 3000 BC and the MRCAs for P312 and A8053 about 2950 BC.

    DF27 and U152 would each be about 2850 BC (2 SNPs downstream).
    L21 would be about 2700 BC (5 SNPs downstream).
    EDIT. wrong thread
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    Every time, I think I have a handle on P312 formation, new information pushes it back more.

    As I posted elsewhere, our possible oldest surviving DF19 is a [6 SNP block] Z302 sub of a [5 SNP] DF19 sub of [5 SNP block] P312. RISE563 is at least 6 SNPs before P312.

    So how many years, on average, do we assign per SNP?

    U152: I4144/RISE563 2572–2512 cal BCE, BB_Germany_BAVm (Bell Beaker Bavaria) Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany [very close to Bohemia]
    DF19: I5748 Netherlands Bell Beaker, PRJEB23635​. 2579-2211 cal BCE Noord-Holland, Oostwoud, De Tuithoorn Netherlands [Rhine mouth/West Frisia]
    Nice! At Oostwoud, the first burial happens before phase III and the subsequent Tumuli and burials are after it.
    Ok, I think I get what you were saying in the other thread with my maps (where the bottom quote of your's comes from).
    The Upper Rhine may not be ideal to explain DF19: 15748 (2579-2211 BC).
    There is at least a couple of options here.
    1. DF19 and/or L21 were in the Upper Rhine at the time of their formation, and later headed down river. Isotopic analysis may support this idea for L21 Amebury Archer
    Known as the Amesbury Archer, this man was buried with the oldest gold and copper artefacts ever discovered in Britain...he is thought to have lived...about 2300 BC...Analysis of his tooth enamel now shows that he grew up not in England, but in central Europe, most probably the Swiss or German Alps. Lighter oxygen isotopes in the tooth enamel indicate that the teeth were formed in a colder climate than Britain.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article...from-the-alps/

    2. DF19 and/or L21 formed in the Lower Rhine and the Beaker Package birth took place all along the Rhine Valley from the Netherlands to the Alps.

    Maybe some future ancient dna sample will allow us to further narrow this down, but I'm not holding my breath.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 09-01-2021 at 01:47 PM.
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