Poll: In which century is the coalescence/MRCA date for L151?

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Thread: The most recent common ancestor of L151+ clades

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    There is some outstanding early, diverse, immediately descending, sustained branching within P312. By sustained I mean branches that have descendants surviving until today so the periods of high growth must have been very strong.

    We can see the U152>L2 and DF27>ZZ12 branching occurred very early while the L21>S552>DF13>Z39589 expansion was a couple centuries later.

    2775 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>Z290 [2 sub-branches]
    2645 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>Z290>L21 [2 sub-branches]
    2580 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>Z290>L21>S552 [7 sub-branches]
    2450 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>Z290>L21>S552>DF13 [14 sub-branches]
    2385 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>Z290>L21>S552>DF13>Z39589 [29 sub-branches]

    2905 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>ZZ11 [3 sub-branches]
    2840 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>ZZ11>U152 [13 sub-branches]
    2775 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>ZZ11>U152>L2 [33 sub-branches]

    2840 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>ZZ11>DF27 [4 sub-branches]
    2775 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312>ZZ11>DF27>ZZ12 [31 sub-branches]
    Interesting that U152 and DF27 seem to have undergone majorly expansion long before bell beaker. Surely taking place in the pre beaker CW era. In fact early in the CW era for most of Europe. That suggests they have 2 or 3 centuries of history as CW lineages that simply have not as yet been oncovered due to patchy sampling and lack of finer resolution in many samples

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  3. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Interesting that U152 and DF27 seem to have undergone majorly expansion long before bell beaker. Surely taking place in the pre beaker CW era. In fact early in the CW era for most of Europe. That suggests they have 2 or 3 centuries of history as CW lineages that simply have not as yet been oncovered due to patchy sampling and lack of finer resolution in many samples
    Looking for an archaeological correlate of the big expansion of U152 and DF27 at those dates I can only come up with the v rapid spread west that took place c. 2850-2750BC. It basically went from east Central Europe to the Rhine and Alps in 3 or 4 generations. That’d be impossible without a very rapidly growing population. I am guessing that the ancestor of L21 also moved at the same time but got drastically pruned. Perhaps it’s the result of the then v young DF13 branch heading to Britain and Ireland and permanently thriving but that part left on the adjacent continent being reduced drastically over the subsequent thousands of years. A big pruning

  4. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.Rocca View Post
    Just an FYI... RISE563 (aka I5021) is dated to 2571–2341 calBC (395535 BP) in the original paper that did radiocarbon testing on the sample. Subsequent papers use the same radiocarbon lab code of Poz-84553 but have shortened the dates, so not sure what they used to calibrate it. I would stick with the original 2571–2341 calBC date.
    It may be just the confidence interval used. Tighter range = lower confidence.
    E.g. 68.3% CI for the tight range, 95.5% for the wide range. That’s just an educated guess on my part.

    Regardless, it skews toward the older dates when the range narrows.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 09-15-2021 at 03:09 AM.
    Y DNA line continued: Z142>Z12222>FGC12378>FGC12401>FGC12384
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    Adding to the observation by Dewsloth the specimen VLI011: 2881-2669 BC; Bohemia_CW_Early Vliněves, central Bohemia, Czech Republic has a derived read for R-FGC69355 defined by a mutation of T->A. This SNP has at least 3 upstream SNPs that are below L151 (CTS4528/S1200, S1203/DF100, S1194). Since the specimen does not have reads on 10 phylogenetic equivalents of FGC69355 we don't know if it was derived for even more SNPs which would place the MRCA date for L151 even further back than the L2 and Z302 derived samples that we currently have. This specimen already has an older date than them.

    Are you guys counting 5 upstream mutations from L2 to L151? Did you guys agree on what the average span should be per SNP?

    If we assume that VLI011 had no other derived phylogenetic equivalents to R-FGC69355 which date would you calculate for the MRCA of L151?

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  7. #65
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    The large number of no-calls of these ancient specimens is making it really hard to get a really good idea of what the MRCA date of L151 is

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    Quote Originally Posted by ArmandoR1b View Post
    The large number of no-calls of these ancient specimens is making it really hard to get a really good idea of what the MRCA date of L151 is
    The ancient DNA is only good for pushing back (older) a subclade's TMRCA. We know for certain the TMRCA of L151's parent, R1b-M269>L23>P310, was prior to about 2900 BC since we have a descendant of P310, L151 around then. We also know that L151's TMRCA was prior to about 2900 BC since U106 ancient DNA was found at 2900 BC.

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  11. #67
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    I had reported all the mutations under L151, up to 12 mutations.
    I noted the number of branches up to 16 mutations for the descendants of Z290.


    Indeed, we can see a delay in the Z290 / L21 expansion.
    The number of branches under U106 increases steadily, without becoming as spectacular as under P312.

    L151.png
    Y haplogroup: R1b: L21 --> DF13 --> BY145002
    The oldest L21 known are I2457 et I2565 from Stonehenge (Beaker Culture, 2400-1900 BC)

    MTDNA: U4c1
    The oldest U4c1 known are "poz224", Yamnaya culture (2882-2698 BC), and 2 Bell-Beaker in Germany (Karsdorf, 2314-2042 BC)

    Paternal MTDNA: K1b2b
    The oldest K1b2 are Eastern European Mesolithic: Kunda Donkalnis5 (Lithuania), 6000 BC and Meso-Ene Lepenski Vir Lepe28 in Serbia, 5900 BC.
    The oldest K1b2b is Alt-3, Corded-Ware Germany (2500 BC)

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  13. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    The ancient DNA is only good for pushing back (older) a subclade's TMRCA. We know for certain the TMRCA of L151's parent, R1b-M269>L23>P310, was prior to about 2900 BC since we have a descendant of P310, L151 around then. We also know that L151's TMRCA was prior to about 2900 BC since U106 ancient DNA was found at 2900 BC.
    Some previously published samples were re-sequenced by the Reich lab using shotgun sequencing. One Afanasievo sample had 22.37x coverage, which is very good for such an old sample. Although not L151, perhaps it can be used to get more meaningful L151 dating:

    Sample: I5273
    Culture: Afanasievo
    C14 Dating: 3011-2885 calBC
    Haplogroup: L23 > Z2103 > M12149 > Z2106 > Z2109 > BY185688

    Source: https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/ancien...ersity-project
    Last edited by R.Rocca; 09-17-2021 at 05:34 PM.
    Paternal: R1b-U152 >> L2 >> FGC10543 >> PR5365, Pietro Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Galicia, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain
    Paternal Great (x3) Grandfather: R1b-U106 >> L48 >> CTS2509, Filippo Ensabella, b.~1836, Agira, Sicily, Italy

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    Quote Originally Posted by R.Rocca View Post
    Some previously published samples were re-sequenced by the Reich lab using shotgun sequencing. One Afanasievo sample had 22.37x coverage, which is very good for such an old sample. Although not L151, perhaps it can be used to get more meaningful L151 dating:

    Sample: I5273
    Culture: Afanasievo
    C14 Dating: 3011-2885 calBC
    Haplogroup: L23 > Z2103 > M12149 > Z2106 > Z2109 > BY185688
    It looks like the successful genetic expansions of P312 and M12149 happened about the same time.

    Given an L151 TMRCA of 3100 BC as the anchor I get the below.

    3945 BC L23 [2 sub-branches]
    3685 BC L23>L51 [2 sub-branches]
    3100 BC L23>L51>PF7589 [3 sub-branches]
    3295 BC L23>L51>P310 [3 sub-branches]
    3100 BC L23>L51>P310>L151 [4 sub-branches

    3035 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>U106 [2 sub-branches]
    3035 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>S1194 [2 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>A8503# [2 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312 [11 sub-branches]

    3750 BC L23>Z2103 [2 sub-branches]
    3620 BC L23>Z2103>FT130482 [2 sub-branches]
    3295 BC L23>Z2103>M12149 [5 sub-branches]
    3100 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Z2106 [5 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Z2106>Z2109 [9 sub-branches]
    2905 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Z2106>Z2109>BY185688# [0 sub-branches]
    2905 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Y4362# [2 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Y13369# [2 sub-branches]

    Note 1: MRCAs based on Haplotree variant counting, Years/Variant = 65.
    Note 2: The R1b-L151 MRCA is used as the anchor, L151 MRCA = 3100 BC. This is based on ancient DNA L151>U106 at 2900 BC.
    Note 3: # branches with limited samples OR getting outside the reasonable timeframe for this analysis.
    Note 4: Sub-branch counts are the immediate descendants of the parent.

    If a BY185688 person lived about 2950 BC (C14 dating) either he is was one of the first or both M12149 and P312 are slightly older than what my L151 "anchor" warrants. This pushes my thinking towards L151's TMRCA being 3200 BC.

    It seems like all roads lead back to - what's the source of Afansievo? what's the source of Corded Ware?
    Last edited by TigerMW; 09-17-2021 at 06:05 PM.

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  17. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    It looks like the successful genetic expansions of P312 and M12149 happened about the same time.

    Given an L151 TMRCA of 3100 BC as the anchor I get the below.

    3945 BC L23 [2 sub-branches]
    3685 BC L23>L51 [2 sub-branches]
    3100 BC L23>L51>PF7589 [3 sub-branches]
    3295 BC L23>L51>P310 [3 sub-branches]
    3100 BC L23>L51>P310>L151 [4 sub-branches

    3035 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>U106 [2 sub-branches]
    3035 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>S1194 [2 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>A8503# [2 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>L51>P310>L151>P312 [11 sub-branches]

    3750 BC L23>Z2103 [2 sub-branches]
    3620 BC L23>Z2103>FT130482 [2 sub-branches]
    3295 BC L23>Z2103>M12149 [5 sub-branches]
    3100 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Z2106 [5 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Z2106>Z2109 [9 sub-branches]
    2905 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Z2106>Z2109>BY185688# [0 sub-branches]
    2905 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Y4362# [2 sub-branches]
    2970 BC L23>Z2103>M12149>Y13369# [2 sub-branches]

    Note 1: MRCAs based on Haplotree variant counting, Years/Variant = 65.
    Note 2: The R1b-L151 MRCA is used as the anchor, L151 MRCA = 3100 BC. This is based on ancient DNA L151>U106 at 2900 BC.
    Note 3: # branches with limited samples OR getting outside the reasonable timeframe for this analysis.
    Note 4: Sub-branch counts are the immediate descendants of the parent.

    If a BY185688 person lived about 2950 BC (C14 dating) either he is was one of the first or both M12149 and P312 are slightly older than what my L151 "anchor" warrants. This pushes my thinking towards L151's TMRCA being 3200 BC.

    It seems like all roads lead back to - what's the source of Afansievo? what's the source of Corded Ware?
    The Sredny Stog Culture.
    Paternal: R1b-U152 >> L2 >> FGC10543 >> PR5365, Pietro Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Galicia, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain
    Paternal Great (x3) Grandfather: R1b-U106 >> L48 >> CTS2509, Filippo Ensabella, b.~1836, Agira, Sicily, Italy

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