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Thread: 50% replacement in GB Patterson et al in review

  1. #2501
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    So, the hypothetical L21 northern Gaulish population that moved to Britain in the LBA (I dont know if I believe this existed or not) would not have been the same as the northern Gaulish popilation that migrated to Britain in the iron age. In other words, the passing of perhaps 500 years between migrations meant northern Gaul changed in between.
    We have to consider that more often than not, if there were big scale migrations and replacements, one area became largely depopulated or experienced a significant decrease in population density. This being also reported for Urnfield. Former more Northern centres being in some cases nearly completely deserted, while to the South whole chains of massive fortified settlements pop up with largely the same inventory. If we think about the Eastern Germanic and Anglo-Saxon migrations, their homelands changed too after their departure, being in a lot of cases taken over by other people. Sometimes the very reason for leaving was that the neighbour pushed too hard for being able to prosper, if withstanding at all.
    Whatever caused the events in the transitional period, it was a chain migration event about the size of the Late Antiquity migration period.

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    2. It however cant be ruled out that there was a male migration of people with very similar yDNA to the British but with more southern autosomal DNA. Again, the whole area of northern Gaul was in the Atlantic network at this era. Its possible but there is at present zero information available to support or deny this.
    Perhaps there was a male based migration from England to northern France, and then a back migration after the British men had picked up local wives.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TOMESQ View Post
    Perhaps there was a male based migration from England to northern France, and then a back migration after the British men had picked up local wives.
    Sounds a bit like the collegiate activity of my youth (in the 1950s) called a "panty raid." Not that I was personally involved, of course. Our more socially constrained American students did not get to keep the actual girls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by razyn View Post
    Sounds a bit like the collegiate activity of my youth (in the 1950s) called a "panty raid." Not that I was personally involved, of course. Our more socially constrained American students did not get to keep the actual girls.
    Alas, I think twas more a matter that the intricate bloomers of yore were simply too convoluted to separate from the wearer and the poor buggars had to take the girls back then
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Well I suppose like other reports this hasnt really resolved the issue due to lack of samples from the northern 'Gaul' area across the English channel
    across the bronze and iron age.

    My view of it is if you just take the genetic evidence you get the following concisions:

    1. Mid-late bronze age - until we have proof of a migrating pre-iron age population in northern Gaul that are v dominated by L21 with a few DF27s then we cant infer an actual migration involving males or any change in hegemony. Until that is proven then the only interpretation is the rise in southern autosomal ancestry was female-driven and linked to the rise of a more intense and extended phase of interaction with 'northern Gaul' in the Atlantic bronze age network c. 1200-800BC (which included Iberia too c. 1200-950BC). At least that fits with the archaeological picture and the suggested French origin of the southern autosomal DNA. It must not be forgotten that in Britain only a tiny portion of the population were accorded burial and it may be that we are seeing a rapid change to a small minority of the population caused by a phase of intermarriage when the continental links of the Atlantic Bronze Age were particularly strong and this didnt change the whole population until a century or two of top-down demographic push. Again, this pretty well fits the archaeological picture without doing a lot of cherrypicking.

    2. It however cant be ruled out that there was a male migration of people with very similar yDNA to the British but with more southern autosomal DNA. Again, the whole area of northern Gaul was in the Atlantic network at this era. Its possible but there is at present zero information available to support or deny this.

    3. In the iron age there is slightly better evidence for a modest and patchy influx of new yDNA. As the autosomal DNA shift in the iron age was very slight, this would require the migration to be either from an area whose autosomal DNA in the iron age was very close to that of the pre-existing late bronze age/iron age transition era British. Again, this is not impossible if the British were already very like the continental migrating people at this time. I think that strongly suggests that the iron age migrants came from coastal northern 'Gaul' (despite the lack of sampling to show this). I think this is a very likely scenario.

    4. If the coastal Gaulish iron age migrants to Britain were very like the existing southern British population at that point then that at first seems incompatible with the idea of a totally L21 dominated population moving into Britain in the LBA. However, I think archaeology supports the idea of more central European influence very gradually penetrating northern France from the Hallstatt D and especially the La Tene eras. So, the hypothetical L21 northern Gaulish population that moved to Britain in the LBA (I dont know if I believe this existed or not) would not have been the same as the northern Gaulish popilation that migrated to Britain in the iron age. In other words, the passing of perhaps 500 years between migrations meant northern Gaul changed in between.
    Scenario #5 : In the wake of the Bronze Age collapse, people from continental Europe were chased away from their homeland by domino effect and migrated to Britain to save their skins. Once there, they met with fierce resistance and were subdued. The women became brides while the men didn't get much chance of procreating.

    I think we under-estimate the degree of disorder that prevailed in central Europe in the 12C BC. It won't be new to many people here, but this paper points to severe disruption and violence:

    https://www.academia.edu/19182199/Co...e_1500_1100_BC
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    Distance: 1.510% : 50.0 German , 50.0 Spanish Castilla .... Distance: 1.453% : 50.4 Swiss German , 49.6 Spanish Barcelona
    Distance: 1.659% : 50.2 Scottish , 49.8 French Corsica...... Distance: 1.714% : 50.8 Italian Lombardy , 49.2 French Brittany
    Distance: 1.959% : 50.8 Irish , 49.2 Italian Tuscany ......... Distance: 2.189% : 50.8 Dutch , 49.2 Basque French

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    Thanks for the link! I think I may have already read that but I’ll take another look just to make sure.
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    ___ Paper trail since 1550 : 100% South Auvergne, France ___
    Distance: 1.510% : 50.0 German , 50.0 Spanish Castilla .... Distance: 1.453% : 50.4 Swiss German , 49.6 Spanish Barcelona
    Distance: 1.659% : 50.2 Scottish , 49.8 French Corsica...... Distance: 1.714% : 50.8 Italian Lombardy , 49.2 French Brittany
    Distance: 1.959% : 50.8 Irish , 49.2 Italian Tuscany ......... Distance: 2.189% : 50.8 Dutch , 49.2 Basque French

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    Quote Originally Posted by altvred View Post
    Here's the output of a smartpca run with. 1KG + HGDP + Additional Modern pops with full 1240k coverage (some were already in the Reich Lab dataset, others added by me) were used to compute the PCs while the ancient samples and modern populations genotyped on SNP arrays were projected onto them.

    My botched attempt at making pseudo G25 coordinates with a scaled version as well.

    ** I do know that the population label is completely off the mark but it was between this and Patterson21. Some of the samples cluster with GAC/Funnelbeakers so it's a little hint that some predate the BA.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/13H-...ew?usp=sharing
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qOg...ew?usp=sharing

     


     
    Some coords are off (or maybe I am doing something wrong).

    I20587
    I17014
    I11151
    I17261
    I20987
    I5511

    This are the ones I used, for example.
    Target: Alejandro_scaled
    Distance: 2.3578% / 0.02357811
    53.4 Anatolian_Neolithic_Farmer
    30.2 Proto-Indo-European
    9.0 Western_Hunter-Gatherer
    6.2 Iberomaurusian
    1.0 Natufian
    0.2 Later_Stone_Age_African_Hunter-Gatherer

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    Looks like Razib Khan tracks with Barry Cunliffe on this.

    "One of the insights of the new paper above is that there seems to have been an Urnfield-related migration that arrived in England around ~1200 BC. Did they bring Celtic speech? I think they were Brythonic and P-Celtic speakers. I believe that R1b-L21 and the Bell Beakers brought Goidelic Q-Celtic languages, and there are some who argue that Celtiberian was a Q-Celtic language."

    https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2022/...idelic-celtic/

    We are speculating on these things as it remains an open question where and when Proto-Celtic formed, but I agree that the British Bell Beakers developed some kind of PIE dialect that was para-Celtic, at the least. As Alan has pointed out, the actual formation of Proto-Celtic may have taken place over a wide area and some duration.

    As with Bell Beakers and Corded Ware, there may be significant regional differences in Urnfield groups.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 01-20-2022 at 02:38 PM.

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  16. #2510
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    Quote Originally Posted by TigerMW View Post
    We are speculating on these things as it remains an open question where and when Proto-Celtic formed, but I agree that the British Bell Beakers developed some kind of PIE dialect that was para-Celtic, at the least. As Alan has pointed out, the actual formation of Proto-Celtic may have taken place over a wide area and some duration.
    I agree. I know Ireland wasn't totally isolated, but the fact that Celtic has been the only attested and dominant language there that it's hard to imagine some other IE dialect being spoken.
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