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Thread: Where did Bronze age Hungarians come from?

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    Where did Bronze age Hungarians come from?

    There is a cluster of unusual high-WHG samples from BA and IA Hungary, Northern Serbia and Northern Croatia.

    The most extreme outlier is the HUN_MBA_Vatya_o sample from 1700 BC.

    I noticed something interesting about it in G25. When using both a Steppe and an EHG source, it completely rejects the steppe, and takes only EHG:

    Target: HUN_MBA_Vatya_o:RISE479
    Distance: 7.6265% / 0.07626511
    44.2 TUR_Barcin_N
    35.0 ITA_Villabruna
    17.2 RUS_Karelia_HG
    3.6 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N

    these two are the oldest samples of this cluster (2200-2000 BC), however they look like the Vatya outlier mixed with a low amount of steppe:

    Target: HUN_Mako_EBA:I1502
    Distance: 4.0944% / 0.04094405
    48.6 TUR_Barcin_N
    22.6 ITA_Villabruna
    16.0 RUS_Karelia_HG
    12.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    0.4 Scotland_N

    Target: Bell_Beaker_HUN_EBA:I3528
    Distance: 4.2329% / 0.04232879
    45.4 TUR_Barcin_N
    26.0 ITA_Villabruna
    21.2 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
    7.4 RUS_Karelia_HG

    The BA Croatian Jagodnjak samples are similar to these, and they are all G2a. In Mokrin EBA in Serbia, there is a subcluster of samples like these, and they are all I2a. So it seems that this is some kind of a surviving neolithic population, but not from Hungary, because neolithic Hungary is well sampled, and the samples are just regular neolithic Europeans.

    To make things even more complicated, their distance drops significantly only when a Balto-Slavic source from a much later period is added:

    Target: Bell_Beaker_HUN_EBA:I3528
    Distance: 2.3145% / 0.02314452
    39.8 Baltic_EST_BA
    29.2 Scotland_N
    13.2 ITA_Villabruna
    7.8 TUR_Barcin_N
    6.0 Kura-Araxes_ARM_Kalavan
    4.0 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N

    Target: HUN_Mako_EBA:I1502
    Distance: 1.1616% / 0.01161552
    45.8 Baltic_EST_BA
    25.2 Scotland_N
    17.6 TUR_Barcin_N
    10.0 ITA_Villabruna
    1.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara

    Target: HUN_MBA_Vatya_o:RISE479
    Distance: 5.9229% / 0.05922889
    39.2 Baltic_EST_BA
    31.2 TUR_Barcin_N
    28.8 ITA_Villabruna
    0.8 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N

    Where could this population originate from? Somewhere close to EHGs, and close to where the Balto-Slavic ethnogenesis was happening, so maybe modern Belarus?

    The archaeological culture which corresponds to this population seems to be Makó–Kosihy–Čaka culture. It replaced Baden which we know were genetically just regular neolithic farmers.

    influences of the Mako culture:

    Several elements contributed to the culture’s formation. These include the late Vučedol culture
    in the south and the late Jevišovice groups in the north-west. The possible role of the late Baden/
    Kostolac communities in the transition to the Bronze Age in the Carpathian Basin is still unclear
    because there is no unambiguous indication of this role in the archaeological record. The possible
    cultural contribution of Eastern European and Transylvanian elements assumed by earlier research is
    likewise uncertain. The role of the Yamnaya culture settling in eastern Hungary can only be clarified
    through new assemblages from secure contexts. Neither can the core area(s) where the Makó–
    Kosihy–Čaka was formed be determined from the current evidence.
    Vučedol samples are just a regular Yamnaya/EEF mix, Jevišovice is from Czechia which is also well tested area, and there are no samples like these there. Kostolac were probably the pre-Steppe ancestors of Vučedol.

    So, it looks like in archaeology there's no trace of a non-Steppe population incoming from far away.

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    You could probably throw in the BR2 Kyjatice sample as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bce View Post
    The BA Croatian Jagodnjak samples are similar to these, and they are all G2a. In Mokrin EBA in Serbia, there is a subcluster of samples like these, and they are all I2a. So it seems that this is some kind of a surviving neolithic population, but not from Hungary, because neolithic Hungary is well sampled, and the samples are just regular neolithic Europeans.
    Do you follow discussions on Eurogenes blog? This is the Pannonian cluster of high Balto-Slavic drift, that Arza thinks is from some Carpathian WHGs or something like that.

    Some of the Mokrin Maros ones are R1b-Z2103, and the Baltic cluster are generally R1b-Z280, but yeah, it does not seem particularly Steppe-related.

    Earlier than Estonia BA are Lithuanian Late Corded Ware (?) Spiginas2 (2130-1750 BC) and Czech Unetice outlier VLI051 (1877-1689 BC), though they are still later than the earliest Hungarian ones. It seems likely that there were these kind of people in between in Poland and Belarus, maybe, presumably Epi-Corded groups, Mierzanowice and such, which we don't have samples from yet. We do have a couple from Chlopice-Vesele though and they lack BSD. Our Corded Ware samples from Southeast Poland don't have it, nor does Fatyanovo-Balanovo.

    I was thinking about this the other day myself, this is definitely associated with high WHG-EHG. You can roughly model Yamnaya and early Corded Ware as on a cline between Dereivka CA and Progress CA. Early Corded Ware has somewhat more Dereivka. And you can model the Baltic samples with high BSD as a Steppe-Dereivka mix as well:
    Yamnaya Samara - 82% Progress CA, 18% Dereivka EBA I5884 - distance 3.29%
    Corded Ware Baltic Early - 85% Yamnaya, 15% Dereivka EBA - distance 2.46%
    Latvia BA - 66% Derevika EBA, 34% CWBE - distance 8.23%.
    Spiginas2 - 76% Der EBA, 24% CWBE - distance 5.06%

    But of course the latter two are terrible fits because they have intense BSD and Dereivka has none (or very little). Some people have suggested that it is due to population-specific drift in some Corded Ware-related group, but that doesn't explain the Pannonian samples that don't have any real link to Corded Ware (technically it could be some unsampled Slovakian Corded Ware or something but that seems far-fetched). So yeah looks like some WHG-EEF mixed group, but who and where? Cremated Tripolye guys? Dereivka-related people from further west or north? Ninja Carpathian WHGs?

    PS

    I didn't try it for Mako EBA before but actually Dereivka seems to work there too:
    Mako EBA I1502 - 61% Dereivka EBA, 39% Starcevo N - 3.42%
    But if we put in a Baltic BA source it looks quite different:
    44% Baden CA, 42% Latvia BA, 14% Iron Gates - 1.76%
    Last edited by Megalophias; 11-10-2021 at 02:44 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Megalophias View Post
    Do you follow discussions on Eurogenes blog? This is the Pannonian cluster of high Balto-Slavic drift, that Arza thinks is from some Carpathian WHGs or something like that.

    Some of the Mokrin Maros ones are R1b-Z2103, and the Baltic cluster are generally R1b-Z280, but yeah, it does not seem particularly Steppe-related.

    Earlier than Estonia BA are Lithuanian Late Corded Ware (?) Spiginas2 (2130-1750 BC) and Czech Unetice outlier VLI051 (1877-1689 BC), though they are still later than the earliest Hungarian ones. It seems likely that there were these kind of people in between in Poland and Belarus, maybe, presumably Epi-Corded groups, Mierzanowice and such, which we don't have samples from yet. We do have a couple from Chlopice-Vesele though and they lack BSD. Our Corded Ware samples from Southeast Poland don't have it, nor does Fatyanovo-Balanovo.

    I was thinking about this the other day myself, this is definitely associated with high WHG-EHG. You can roughly model Yamnaya and early Corded Ware as on a cline between Dereivka CA and Progress CA. Early Corded Ware has somewhat more Dereivka. And you can model the Baltic samples with high BSD as a Steppe-Dereivka mix as well:
    Yamnaya Samara - 82% Progress CA, 18% Dereivka EBA I5884 - distance 3.29%
    Corded Ware Baltic Early - 85% Yamnaya, 15% Dereivka EBA - distance 2.46%
    Latvia BA - 66% Derevika EBA, 34% CWBE - distance 8.23%.
    Spiginas2 - 76% Der EBA, 24% CWBE - distance 5.06%

    But of course the latter two are terrible fits because they have intense BSD and Dereivka has none (or very little). Some people have suggested that it is due to population-specific drift in some Corded Ware-related group, but that doesn't explain the Pannonian samples that don't have any real link to Corded Ware (technically it could be some unsampled Slovakian Corded Ware or something but that seems far-fetched). So yeah looks like some WHG-EEF mixed group, but who and where? Cremated Tripolye guys? Dereivka-related people from further west or north? Ninja Carpathian WHGs?

    PS

    I didn't try it for Mako EBA before but actually Dereivka seems to work there too:
    Mako EBA I1502 - 61% Dereivka EBA, 39% Starcevo N - 3.42%
    But if we put in a Baltic BA source it looks quite different:
    44% Baden CA, 42% Latvia BA, 14% Iron Gates - 1.76%
    A lot of R1a-Z280 is expected in the Nitra culture, judging by the announcement

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    Makes sense. VLI051 could be a Nitra immigrant, right time and place IIUC. (Or from the Unetice group that developed from Nitra? Gah this is complicated.)

    Not to get too far off the topic of Hungary, but does anyone know where the Baltic BA guys actually came from? Textile Ware culture from Belarus and NW Russia, something like that? Brushed Pottery? Yet they look just like VLI051. The Baltic Corded Ware, other than Spiginas2 (who I'm not sure is even Corded Ware really), seem to have R1a-Z284 and no BSD. (I'm sure this has been discussed to death already, I should just do a search.)
    I see that the Dereivka thing was discussed back in 2018 lol
    Last edited by Megalophias; 11-10-2021 at 04:54 AM.

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    Not sure these samples represent any coherent genetic population. I3528 doesn't even have Steppe admixture. qpAdm models for all three, results are far from homogenous:

    https://pastebin.com/iJeeL2xW
    https://pastebin.com/PZZiW2rJ
    https://pastebin.com/puu3tm5x



    I3528

     
    Code:
    left pops:
    CHG
    Barcin_N
    WHG
    EHG
    
    
    
        fixed pat  wt  dof     chisq       tail prob
             0000  0    12    11.956          0.4492    -0.032     0.629     0.212     0.191  infeasible
             0001  1    13    69.761     8.88144e-10     0.168     0.468     0.364     0.000 
             0010  1    13    57.328     1.57027e-07    -0.244     0.936     0.000     0.307  infeasible
             0100  1    13    94.879     1.61815e-14     0.472     0.000     0.396     0.132 
             1000  1    13    13.216        0.431281     0.000     0.592     0.223     0.186 
    


    f4 stats for (target;EHG,CHG,outpop). No siginifcant score (Z > 3) for any of them.

     
    jackknife block size: 0.050
    number of blocks for block jackknife: 714
    nrows, ncols: 26 1121849
    result: Hungary_MBA_Vatya_o2.SG EHG CHG Mbuti.DG 0.0060 0.004329 1.380 40307 39828 756414
    result: Hungary_EBA_Mako EHG CHG Mbuti.DG 0.0034 0.004255 0.797 39835 39565 743497
    result: Hungary_EBA_I3528 EHG CHG Mbuti.DG 0.0093 0.005726 1.631 11153 10946 207299
    result: Ukrainian_EGDP EHG CHG Mbuti.DG 0.0101 0.002761 3.671 52519 51465 932389
    result: Belarusian_EGDP EHG CHG Mbuti.DG 0.0132 0.002970 4.437 52387 51025 932389
    result: CWC_Baltic_Gyvakarai1 EHG CHG Mbuti.DG 0.0205 0.004102 5.006 52496 50384 975135
    ##end of qpDstat: 496.080 seconds cpu 1855.263 Mbytes in use


    https://pastebin.com/mjsxKrD0

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    Quote Originally Posted by Megalophias View Post
    Do you follow discussions on Eurogenes blog? This is the Pannonian cluster of high Balto-Slavic drift, that Arza thinks is from some Carpathian WHGs or something like that.

    Some of the Mokrin Maros ones are R1b-Z2103, and the Baltic cluster are generally R1b-Z280, but yeah, it does not seem particularly Steppe-related.

    Earlier than Estonia BA are Lithuanian Late Corded Ware (?) Spiginas2 (2130-1750 BC) and Czech Unetice outlier VLI051 (1877-1689 BC), though they are still later than the earliest Hungarian ones. It seems likely that there were these kind of people in between in Poland and Belarus, maybe, presumably Epi-Corded groups, Mierzanowice and such, which we don't have samples from yet. We do have a couple from Chlopice-Vesele though and they lack BSD. Our Corded Ware samples from Southeast Poland don't have it, nor does Fatyanovo-Balanovo.

    I was thinking about this the other day myself, this is definitely associated with high WHG-EHG. You can roughly model Yamnaya and early Corded Ware as on a cline between Dereivka CA and Progress CA. Early Corded Ware has somewhat more Dereivka. And you can model the Baltic samples with high BSD as a Steppe-Dereivka mix as well:
    Yamnaya Samara - 82% Progress CA, 18% Dereivka EBA I5884 - distance 3.29%
    Corded Ware Baltic Early - 85% Yamnaya, 15% Dereivka EBA - distance 2.46%
    Latvia BA - 66% Derevika EBA, 34% CWBE - distance 8.23%.
    Spiginas2 - 76% Der EBA, 24% CWBE - distance 5.06%

    But of course the latter two are terrible fits because they have intense BSD and Dereivka has none (or very little). Some people have suggested that it is due to population-specific drift in some Corded Ware-related group, but that doesn't explain the Pannonian samples that don't have any real link to Corded Ware (technically it could be some unsampled Slovakian Corded Ware or something but that seems far-fetched). So yeah looks like some WHG-EEF mixed group, but who and where? Cremated Tripolye guys? Dereivka-related people from further west or north? Ninja Carpathian WHGs?

    PS

    I didn't try it for Mako EBA before but actually Dereivka seems to work there too:
    Mako EBA I1502 - 61% Dereivka EBA, 39% Starcevo N - 3.42%
    But if we put in a Baltic BA source it looks quite different:
    44% Baden CA, 42% Latvia BA, 14% Iron Gates - 1.76%
    the proportions between Dereivka and Progress are a little bit different.

    yamnaya dereivka.png

    Yamnaya samples are on average 30% Dereivka and 70% Progress

    and CW Baltic early are obviously more Dereivka shifted since proto CWC samples are on average 40% Dereivka and 60% Progress as is clear by the papers that unanimously model CWC as more european hunter shifted.

    cwc proto.png


    needless to say that Dereivka represents the PIE cluster

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    Quote Originally Posted by Megalophias View Post
    Makes sense. VLI051 could be a Nitra immigrant, right time and place IIUC. (Or from the Unetice group that developed from Nitra? Gah this is complicated.)

    Not to get too far off the topic of Hungary, but does anyone know where the Baltic BA guys actually came from? Textile Ware culture from Belarus and NW Russia, something like that? Brushed Pottery? Yet they look just like VLI051. The Baltic Corded Ware, other than Spiginas2 (who I'm not sure is even Corded Ware really), seem to have R1a-Z284 and no BSD. (I'm sure this has been discussed to death already, I should just do a search.)
    I see that the Dereivka thing was discussed back in 2018 lol
    There is no direct Y-DNA overlap (talking about clades which formed after 3000 B.C) so far between Hun_BA and ancient Balto-Slavs, which points against Hun_BA originating from the same region as Proto-Balto-Slavs. Any region east of the Baltics is also highly unlikely as Proto-Balto-Slavic homeland because this region was rather linked to Z93 people in the Bronze Age and later dominated by Finno-Ugrians. So far typical Balto-Slavic Y-DNA (R1a-Z92, R1a-CTS1221) was not found in CWC Czechia, CWC Baltics (except the Spiginas2 outliner who likely is post-CWC),CWC SE Poland, CWC Germany, CWC Fatyanovo or Balkan_BA so the only region left seems to be the region between East Poland and the Middle Dnjepr (Belarus, NW Ukraine). Hun_BA based on archaeology and genetics unlikely originated from this region in my opinion. Pannonia and surrounding regions just had local WHG-rich (seemingly with a small EHG-shift) people surviving longer what in some cases makes them superficially similar to Balt_BA, which also had extra WHG ancestry (with a small EHG shift).

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    The Balto-Slavic drift comes of course from the Carpathian area, as Arza claims, and which is confirmed by an increasing number of samples.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ambron View Post
    The Balto-Slavic drift comes of course from the Carpathian area, as Arza claims, and which is confirmed by an increasing number of samples.
    these samples from bronze age hungary cannot originated there. This was the area where EEF with limited amount of WHG had their core eregion ( balkan type EEF). but in reality it seems to me that in every Late neolithic european there is a lot of WHG related ancestry. Back in 2017 someone posted on Anthrogenica a model of west eurasia populations breaking up their ancestry into three basic components ( I just post the european ones who have minimal amount of other components)


    ANE-BASAL- VILLABRUNA related. A different picture seems to emerge

    ANE BASAL VILLABRUNA related
    Bell_Beaker_Germany:average 18,88 22,6266667 57,4066667
    Bell_Beaker_Germany:I0108 14,28 25,22 59,12
    Bell_Beaker_Germany:I0112 19,87 21,98 57,47
    Bell_Beaker_Germany:I1549 22,49 20,68 55,63




    ANE BASAL VILLABRUNA related
    Corded_Ware_Estonia:RISE00 24,29 20,31 53,84
    Corded_Ware_Germany:average 31 19,7833333 48,7133333
    Corded_Ware_Germany:I0103 33,18 18,73 47,82
    Corded_Ware_Germany:I0104 32,35 19,68 47,32
    Corded_Ware_Germany:I1532 27,47 20,94 51


    Yamnaya was modeled as 36% Villabruna 50% ANE and 14% Basal. it makes sense because Yamnaya is the core eastern steppe population. I guess PIE were an equal split of ANE and Villabruna like ancestry with very little basal ( likely inherited mostly from the small amount of CHG)

    what to make of it? or maybe 2017 there was less informations about ancient dna. I do not think so because CHG had been already discovered IIRC
    Last edited by etrusco; 11-10-2021 at 09:22 AM.

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