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Thread: 50% replacement in GB Patterson et al in review

  1. #131
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    Currently available Scotland_LBA samples are from times already after that "50% replacement" had occured. They are also virtually the same as Gaelic Iceland Viking Age samples.
    Last edited by Tomenable; 10-14-2021 at 08:25 AM.

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  3. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    Both in Ireland and Lusitania the collapse was rather in the 7-6th century BC. I think that final demise of the Atlantic Bronze Age system should be of ethnic-genetic importance in many regions of Western Europe.
    Latest thinking is Iberia was out of the Atlantic loop by c.900BC and Ireland fell out the look maybe sometime in Hallstatt C, probably about 100-200 years later. Iberia joined the British-French Atlantic system for a surprisingly short time. Th end of the British Isles-north French Atlantic system only looks certain in Hallstatt D. However Ireland had no Hallstatt D materiel at all. Not early La Tene. So when the Ora Maritima and Pytheas in the 5th and 4th C BC described Ireland with an early version of the Gaelic name of Ireland, Ireland had been isolated from external influences since some point in the Hallstatt C era. The name of Ireland is v likely Celtic and in every record of it it had the characteristic dripping of the IE initial P that didn’t happen in Italic or Lusitanian. Otherwise it would have been recorded as Pierne not Ierne. This is often overlooked when people suggest the Atlantic Bronze Age spoke some Lusitanian type dialect. Also worth noting that the name of the Orkney Island is mentioned by Pytheas as Orkas which again would have been Porkas if hadn’t undergone the characteristically Celtic dropping of the P from the IE original.

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  5. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    Currently available Scotland_LBA samples are from times already after that "50% replacement" had occured. They are also virtually the same as Gaelic Iceland Viking Age samples.
    What is the exact date of the Scottish sample?

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  7. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Latest thinking is Iberia was out of the Atlantic loop by c.900BC and Ireland fell out the look maybe sometime in Hallstatt C, probably about 100-200 years later. Iberia joined the British-French Atlantic system for a surprisingly short time. Th end of the British Isles-north French Atlantic system only looks certain in Hallstatt D. However Ireland had no Hallstatt D materiel at all. Not early La Tene. So when the Ora Maritima and Pytheas in the 5th and 4th C BC described Ireland with an early version of the Gaelic name of Ireland, Ireland had been isolated from external influences since some point in the Hallstatt C era. The name of Ireland is v likely Celtic and in every record of it it had the characteristic dripping of the IE initial P that didn’t happen in Italic or Lusitanian. Otherwise it would have been recorded as Pierne not Ierne. This is often overlooked when people suggest the Atlantic Bronze Age spoke some Lusitanian type dialect. Also worth noting that the name of the Orkney Island is mentioned by Pytheas as Orkas which again would have been Porkas if hadn’t undergone the characteristically Celtic dropping of the P from the IE original.
    https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....l=1#post807965
    ???

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  9. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Also worth noting that Atlantic France was the immediate link with Atlantic Iberia in the period 1100-900BC so there could well have been some geneflow between elites via alliance marriages and some others into northern France. That could have caused a rise in ANF in northern France Also worth noting that a chunk of northern France was kind of an overlap zone between Rhenish and Iberian type influenced in the beaker phase so the beaker people in northern France, especially west of the Seine, might never have been as low in ANF as Britain.
    I don't see how Prestige Wives can make a 50% replacement in a couple of centuries.

    The impact is too massive by far.

    BTW, Brunel didn't find much change between BA and IA in Eastern France. She didn't have many samples in her paper, so difficult to say much. But it could mean that the source of the wave is from a population very close as the one found in Alsace.
    Last edited by ffoucart; 10-14-2021 at 09:12 AM.

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  11. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    What the chart, in my opinion also clearly shows, is that there were two succeeding changes:
    One in the Later Bronze Age, most likely associated with Urnfielders, and a second at the transition to the Iron Age. The first might have spread new ancestry without destroying the local structures, while the second did. It's also the second which did reach Ireland and Iberia, causing the final collapse of what remained of the Atlantic system up to this point.
    I guess the second wave will be way more male driven and clearly Celtic, whereas I'm less sure about the first.
    I guess we most also take in account the social-cultural factors. I guess for these kind of Bronze Age culture there are in this respect two significant factors:
    1. Koryos, or for me easier to describe the old German equivalent Herjan (in all places I have lived are hereweg or herestraat the main streets male ware bands that scouted, raided, and were capable of destroying the local structures as you would say.
    2. Brides from distance, I guess England was on this way probably connected with may be very inland continental Urnfield groups.....

    Anyhow seen the timeline of Reich it was a pretty long proces, hundred of years. With different groups probably al along the Atlantic/ Channel/ North Sea from the Weser to the Belgian/ French 'shores'. Not to mention from rivers like the Rhine. Seems al bits and pieces etc. If this makes 50% I don't know, but the exact number is not so relevant I guess....
    Last edited by Finn; 10-14-2021 at 10:20 AM.

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  13. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    1st: I think many of you have already take a look at this previous vid by Reich from march 21:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoGmPJJS3X8

    The part with the chart:
    Attachment 47020

    We can see samples from Scotland. They also may have more EEF during IA than during MBA (green spots). Difficult to say as the difference is thin.

    The reference is Patterson in revision (not in review as it is in the vid from july 21)

    We can see that more samples have been added in July.

    2d: I am asked to post Patterson's abstract. I don't have it, and I don't think it has been published yet. But, some of its content are included in another abstract, posted in the 1st page of this thread:


    Genetic Change and population movement C. 1200 BCE: a view from the North and West by Ian Armit et al
    Nick Patterson and David Reich are cited as co-authors.

    So, we have spoilers from the main paper. "focusing on Britain but including substantial new datasets for areas of continental Europe, has also identified major genetic changes in the Middle-Late Bronze Age (c. 1300-800 BCE). In Britain specifically, a rise in ancestry derived from Early European Farmers (EEF) appears to represent an influx of people from a region most likely located in presen-day France. Due to a paucity of aDNA coverage in the potential source region(s), it is presently impossible to determine whether the movement of people was reciprocal or unidirectional. It is striking, however that many of those who moved appear to have been female. Similar genetic changes are evident in the Netherlands and Czechia, although based on fewer samples, while in Iberia we see a decrease in EEF ancestry."

    So, if Reich was only refering to Southern Britain, it was from an older version of the paper. In the new version (july 21), it is about Britain, but we should consider a wider change. If I read between lines, they are working on a migration from a single population, richer in EEF that people in Britain, but poorer than in Iberia, which expanded everywhere from Czechia to Britain and Netherlands, and to Iberia.

    I also think they are trying to have access to samples from France to test their theory about a source there.

    I am rather skeptical about a nearly only female-derived admixture. As said previously, some people are putting too much amphisis on Y haplogroups. In all likehood, incoming populations did have the sames. L21 is not specific to British Islands, if I may (some people seem to completely forget that L21>DF13 likely came from the Continent with BBs).
    In patrilocal elites whose prestige is highly linked to trade/exchange, I think it’s totally possible that there was a constant fairly long distance flow of wives. When you have societies which basically are closed to others on the male line, marriage is one of the few ways of sealing alliances. Fosterage is another method but, although I think it’s potential cultural and linguistic impact is large, it wouldn’t leave much genetic impact as they return home at 16. Rather like in the Viking samples, the elite may well have been particularly admixed due to this. But in such societies a 5% elite might sire 50% of the population of a century or two later due to having far more children who survive than ordinary people.

    However if it did turn out that later post-beaker waves to the British isles were coming from another L21 DF13 dominated population on the continental side of the English Channel then that would also be fascinating because a continental reservoir of L21 hasn’t been identified to date (most guesses have been northern France or the Rhine area).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    I don't see how Prestige Wives can make a 50% replacement in a couple of centuries.

    The impact is too massive by far.

    BTW, Brunel didn't find much change between BA and IA in Eastern France. She didn't have many samples in her paper, so difficult to say much. But it could mean that the source of the wave is from a population very close as the one found in Alsace.
    What if for a century or two the elite married wives from tribes downstream in the network they were part of. Then imagine that elite produce 5 times as many surviving children than the commoners and this is sustained for a couple of centuries (maybe 8-10 generations). That would cause an enormous shift. Reason I give this model is it’s exactly the top-down demographics seem in Post Roman island Celtic society. A large swath of early medieval Ireland was ruled by clans who were descended from just a handful of men who lived a few centuries earlier

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  17. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    In patrilocal elites whose prestige is highly linked to trade/exchange, I think it’s totally possible that there was a constant fairly long distance flow of wives. When you have societies which basically are closed to others on the male line, marriage is one of the few ways of sealing alliances. Fosterage is another method but, although I think it’s potential cultural and linguistic impact is large, it wouldn’t leave much genetic impact as they return home at 16. Rather like in the Viking samples, the elite may well have been particularly admixed due to this. But in such societies a 5% elite might sire 50% of the population of a century or two later due to having far more children who survive than ordinary people.

    However if it did turn out that later post-beaker waves to the British isles were coming from another L21 DF13 dominated population on the continental side of the English Channel then that would also be fascinating because a continental reservoir of L21 hasn’t been identified to date (most guesses have been northern France or the Rhine area).
    If It was progressive over centuries, I would take it in consideration. But a 50% replacement in 200 years at much? No, it is not possible. It is 6/8 generations at best. How many Prestige Wives do you need to have a 50% replacement on all the population? I can't even imagine. Again, the rise of EEF is sudden, just around 900. You need a big influx of a new population, on a relative short time.

    Given that I'm L21 myself, I can see there is too much amphisis on subclades from Britain (including Ireland). Even if we know that:
    - BBs in the Isles were overwhelming L21, so the original migrants were already L21.
    - There is a shared cultural affinity since BBs between both side of the Channel. So it would not be a surprise to have the same DNA admixture in both regions, including high level of L21 in Hilversum.

    But without any good sampling from this side, difficult to have a clear idea about that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    What if for a century or two the elite married wives from tribes downstream in the network they were part of. Then imagine that elite produce 5 times as many surviving children than the commoners and this is sustained for a couple of centuries (maybe 8-10 generations). That would cause an enormous shift. Reason I give this model is it’s exactly the top-down demographics seem in Post Roman island Celtic society. A large swath of early medieval Ireland was ruled by clans who were descended from just a handful of men who lived a few centuries earlier
    If there is a combination of several factors, why not? Small population, demographic crisis and the sort, all combined. But to all Britain, and, as it seems, in a large part of Western Europe? Because the new point is that Britain could be an example of a wider phenomenon. Czechia or Netherlands are cited too.

    Add-on: about the gradual rise of EEF during BA:
    https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...3FA8D2DA38A21A

    "There is one further strand of evidence to support the idea that some indigenous populations survived through the Early Bronze Age. While several Beaker Complex individuals in the aDNA sample appear to be first generation migrants (or, at least, entirely descended from continental communities), most have some ancestry derived from indigenous populations. Indeed, some outlier individuals have substantial proportions (Figure 4), suggesting mixing between these groups from an early stage and persistence of individuals with high proportions of Neolithic-derived ancestry for a few centuries following the arrival of Beaker Complex traditions—even if they are not directly sampled in available aDNA data. By the Middle Bronze Age, the median proportion of Neolithic-associated ancestry increased and there was less variability in Neolithic ancestry across individuals (Figure 4), showing that persistent indigenous groups and the migrants from the Continent had thoroughly mixed by this time."
    Last edited by ffoucart; 10-14-2021 at 10:01 AM.

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