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Thread: 50% replacement in GB Patterson et al in review

  1. #1531
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    Quote Originally Posted by GOM View Post
    I've noticed that I left the values for Russia and Hungary off my map of L21. Here's the updated version:
    The figures for Slovenia and Croatia are a bit surprising to me. Any thoughts as to what's going on there?

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    Quote Originally Posted by David Mc View Post
    The figures for Slovenia and Croatia are a bit surprising to me. Any thoughts as to what's going on there?
    Wasn't there R-L21 together with "Illyrian" J-L283 in some sample groups in pre-Celtic times, related to the Middle Danubian provinces of Tumulus Culture and Urnfield? Especially in the Unterkrainische Gruppe of Eastern Hallstatt was an Illyrian burial rite and social structure apparent, contrary to the more Daco-Thracian/Basarabi influenced Frög and Kalenderberggruppe.
    This could have been a transitional zone of interaction between the more Bell Beaker derived lineages of the TC and the J-L283 dominated sphere. The question is whether this is a regional survivor or was brought in later, by Celts which invaded the region or other people, or being a sampling bias anyway.

    From the Olalde 2021 supplementary table:
    I5689; 750-400 BC; Grofove njive; Slovenia_IA; I2a1b1a1b1a1a-Y3721>Y3670>L1229>Z2069>Z2059>Z2068>Y3672 (xY11521,Y10648,Y7243,FGC15111,Y13325,Y31802)
    I5690; 750-400 BC; Grofove njive; Slovenia_IA; R1b1a1b1a1a2b1-U152>L2 (xS255,L196,Z49,FGC22500)
    I5691; 787-544 BC; Kapiteljska njive, Novo mesto; Slovenia_IA; J2b2a1a1a-L283>Z622>Z600>Z2509>Z585>Z615>Z597 (xZ2507,FGC64029)
    I5696; 401-208 BC; Obrežje; Slovenia_IA; R1b1a1b1a1a2c1a1a1a1a1a1a1a1a-L21>DF13>DF49>DF23>M222>DF85>S668>DF97 (xFGC19851,A1332)
    Last edited by Riverman; 12-01-2021 at 10:53 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by David Mc View Post
    The figures for Slovenia and Croatia are a bit surprising to me. Any thoughts as to what's going on there?
    Extremely low sample size and chance, I would guess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GOM View Post
    I've noticed that I left the values for Russia and Hungary off my map of L21. Here's the updated version:

    Attachment 47631

    The highest level of L21 appears in Iceland (100% of the 4 P312 samples in that country). For completeness here are the raw results:


    What the chart shows though (and what I don't fully understand) is why the level of L21 in a country of the British Isles should be so completely predictable from the level of P312 in that country. That relationship doesn't hold for those littoral countries you mention on the continent.
    Thanks for the updated numbers, GOM. While it makes sense that some of the L21 in Iceland is no doubt Gaelic in origin, it also follows that some could be Norwegian, at least based on proportions of P312 in Norway.

    When you say completely predictable, do you mean the ratio of L21312 in the British Isles/Ireland is consistent with P312 dominance there as a whole? Yeah, this makes sense since the overwhelming majority of P312 in these countries is L21, so that is consistent with the maps you provided. I actually thought the proportions would be smaller in Scandinavia and the Netherlands but it isn't too much a surprise since this marker is likely associated with Bronze Age seafaring.
    yDNA: R1b-BY17850 (England?)
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    Maternal grandmother (MDKA: Angelina Centrella, Avellino, Campania, Italia) - mtDNA: HV4a1


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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    Wasn't there R-L21 together with "Illyrian" J-L283 in some sample groups in pre-Celtic times, related to the Middle Danubian provinces of Tumulus Culture and Urnfield? Especially in the Unterkrainische Gruppe of Eastern Hallstatt was an Illyrian burial rite and social structure apparent, contrary to the more Daco-Thracian/Basarabi influenced Frög and Kalenderberggruppe.
    This could have been a transitional zone of interaction between the more Bell Beaker derived lineages of the TC and the J-L283 dominated sphere. The question is whether this is a regional survivor or was brought in later, by Celts which invaded the region or other people, or being a sampling bias anyway.

    From the Olalde 2021 supplementary table:
    Anecdotal, but there is one Bulgarian L21+>Z255+ individual in the Z255 Project . I'm sure there are other outliers but interesting what the history of L21 could be in these areas.
    yDNA: R1b-BY17850 (England?)
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    Maternal grandmother (MDKA: Angelina Centrella, Avellino, Campania, Italia) - mtDNA: HV4a1


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    Quote Originally Posted by Kopfjäger View Post
    When you say completely predictable, do you mean the ratio of L21/P312 in the British Isles/Ireland is consistent with P312 dominance there as a whole? Yeah, this makes sense since the overwhelming majority of P312 in these countries is L21, so that is consistent with the maps you provided. I actually thought the proportions would be smaller in Scandinavia and the Netherlands but it isn't too much a surprise since this marker is likely associated with Bronze Age seafaring.
    The chart shows that there is clearly a positive correlation, so that the higher the level of P312 in a country (P312 % of A), the higher the level of L21 in that country (L21 % of A). There is more to it than a simple flood of P312 into the country, as the L21/P312 ratio varies widely between countries. For example Ireland has L21/P312= 88.5%, while in England it equals 49.4%. The regression line fitted to the British data accounts for both of these trends.

    What I mean by predictable is that the regression formula says that (L21%of A)=0.9904*(P312%ofA)-10.643. Using Ireland as example, the formula predicts that (L21%ofA) should equal 53.4, whereas the reported value is 56.3%. Pretty close. For England, the formula predicts (L21%ofA) = 16.3% compared to the reported value of 12.8%. The formula fits British countries quite well but does not fit Continental countries at all. For example Belgium has about the same level of P312 in that country as England. The regression line for Britain would suggest that 17.1 % of the country should be L21, but the reported L21%ofA= 4.4. Somehow the same event or processes have affected all the countries of the British Isles so that the ratios of P312/A , L21/P312 and L21/A are coherent, predictable and different from those on the Continent.

    Yes the percentages of L21 in Scandinavia and the Netherlands are high as a proportion of P312, but P312 is relatively low in those countries. Here is a map of L21 as a percentage of each country. It shows a lovely east-west cline:

    L21 % of A.PNG
    Last edited by GOM; 12-02-2021 at 06:54 AM. Reason: incomplete

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chnodomar View Post
    Extremely low sample size and chance, I would guess.
    Indeed. There is only 1 L21 for Croatia and 5 for Slovenia.

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    The Premyslid Dynasty was R1b-L21>S5982, meaning that there is a scarce but present people with L21 in all Eastern Europe. I assume most of them came from the Western part after the Roman Colapse.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GOM View Post
    Indeed. There is only 1 L21 for Croatia and 5 for Slovenia.
    Slovenia sticks out in the E-V13 percentage too, having especially in its Western part less of it than the neighbours. It was also more heavily affected by Western movements, including Tumulus culture and Celts. So there might be something to it nevertheless. That's why knowing their subclades and affiliations might help to put them into context, whether they are old & local or new and e.g. from German colonists or the like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alejandromb92 View Post
    The Premyslid Dynasty was R1b-L21>S5982, meaning that there is a scarce but present people with L21 in all Eastern Europe. I assume most of them came from the Western part after the Roman Colapse.
    Do you have a reference to Y DNA results and this dynasty?

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