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Thread: 50% replacement in GB Patterson et al in review

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    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    You are correct, and Lara Cassidy's paper, which I downloaded before it was embargoed, shows exactly that. Predominately I2a prior to the Bronze Age, and then an almost complete change over to L21 starting in the BA and continuing through the Iron Age. So if the Irish Beaker folk who were L21 were not speaking any sort of Italic-Celtic/Pre Italic-Celtic/ just before Italic-Celtic then it is very strange how a group not already speaking an Italic-Celtic language would adopt a Celtic language without there being a clear signal of a new incoming group who would have brought that language with them. So the most common sense, direct approach is, in my opinion, the Irish Bell Beakers were already speaking something that could easily become the Celtic we recognize today. I personally feel that we are missing too many languages, that if still existed, would make things more clear. The Lusitanian inscriptions are an example. Scholars have been arguing for many years about how to classify Lusitanian. Some say the language leans Celtic, others such as Maria Prosper says there is evidence it is more Italic. But it could be it is just one of many extinct languages that had elements of Celtic and Italic.
    There are some irregularities in the proto-Celtic lexicon that to me might indicate that proto-celtic was just a dominant sub-dialect in a para-Celtic zone but a few words came into Celtic from a drifted para-Celtic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michalis Moriopoulos View Post
    They're pretty much all from Southern England, though, except for Carsington Pasture (Midlands) which has less EEF than the others from what I can tell.
    How decisive is EEF?
    Schermafbeelding 2021-10-13 om 16.54.18.png

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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    Lusitanians were most likely not in Iberia before the end of the Bronze Age.
    I think there is no reason to say that. They could very well be the descendants of BBs, without much more admixture. And if Lusitanian is equally distant from Italic languages thant from Celtic languages, it is even likely they were more or less isolated from both. Lusitanian is probably a para-celtic language.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michalis Moriopoulos View Post
    They're pretty much all from Southern England, though, except for Carsington Pasture (Midlands) which has less EEF than the others from what I can tell.
    No: there are 2 samples. One around 750 has nearly 50% EEF, but you are right about the one around 300 which has 30/35% (which is the level before the LBA event).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    No: there are 2 samples. One around 750 has nearly 50% EEF, but you are right about the one around 300 which has 30/35% (which is the level before the LBA event).
    Can we infer the average level of EEF of the intruding population? I think it must have been very high

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    Quote Originally Posted by etrusco View Post
    Can we infer the average level of EEF of the intruding population? I think it must have been very high
    No, I don't think so. The level during MBA is 30/35%, and with the surge we can see something like 40%. Not much on overall, but significative enough.

    If a 50% replacement is correct, the incoming population could have between 40 and 50% of EEF. Clearly not from Northern Europe, and not enough to be from Iberia (which could be tested easily since Olalde). Hence why I think of France. The abstract is also pointing to France.

    I've read the Brunel's paper to look after clues, but not enough samples for the regions which could help to solve the problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    I think there is no reason to say that. They could very well be the descendants of BBs, without much more admixture. And if Lusitanian is equally distant from Italic languages thant from Celtic languages, it is even likely they were more or less isolated from both. Lusitanian is probably a para-celtic language.
    There is no proof for them being present before the LBA, its possible, but not particularly likely:
    the
    interior areas of this system are very vulnerable to any change in the metal commerce networks. This
    will determine their demise during the VI century BC as a result of the temporary collapse of the
    Mediterranean-Atlantic commerce network
    . The exception is the Atlantic Estremadura where the more
    diversified economy and the cosmopolitanism of its incipient urbes will allow a steady development
    during the Iron Age.
    So both the characterisation of the local Late Bronze Age Groups and their subsequent evolution
    correspond well with the description by the classic authors of the Lusitanians and the «two Lusitanias»
    allowing us to argue that their ethnogenesis goes back at least to the Late Bronze Age.
    Like elsewhere, but the Urnfield and allied groups, the collapse was at the LBA:
    The continuous development of the main sites in
    Atlantic Estremadura during the rest of the first
    millennium BC up to the Roman conquest contrasts
    sharply with what happens in the Beiras where the
    middle VI century BC seems to assist to a general
    collapse of the Late Bronze Age settlements
    till the
    Roman conquest sees to the reoccupation of some
    of them.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publica...l_Ethnogenesis

    Whether the shift to pastoralism was, like some suggested, just a different mode of living for the same people, or there was migration involved, has to be seen once genetic data for pre- and post phase can be compared.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    No, I don't think so. The level during MBA is 30/35%, and with the surge we can see something like 40%. Not much on overall, but significative enough.

    If a 50% replacement is correct, the incoming population could have between 40 and 50% of EEF. Clearly not from Northern Europe, and not enough to be from Iberia (which could be tested easily since Olalde). Hence why I think of France. The abstract is also pointing to France.

    I've read the Brunel's paper to look after clues, but not enough samples for the regions which could help to solve the problem.
    I try to make some serious remarks about this migration. Sprockhoff has perfectly shown that there was a very clear and proven connection with Urnfield.

    Still the riddle goes on (Alan and you seem to be confident it was not Urnfield!), but no remark on that. Ok when Sprockhoff can be debunked or such like. Ok, be my guest.

    Till that time....a reaction would be fine, thanks in advance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ffoucart View Post
    Well, it is not exactly true. We don't know. It is not because BBs in Ireland were L21 that there is continuity since then. Reich is saying that there is a 50% replacement in the British Isles (no reason to exclude Ireland from his "Britain"). I don't think that the population was 50% replaced by a migration of only women. There were men, but probably also descendants from BBs. So, without a clear view of subclades, it is not possible to know.

    After all, L21 is not native from the Isles, it came with BBs from the Continent. We could very well find many L21 in BA Western Europe.
    This is from Lara Cassidy's Thesis:

    "Bronze Age Continuity
    The third and final population of Ireland that can be considered as a discrete genetic entity arrives in the Chalcolithic period (2,500-2,200 BC), likely alongside metallurgy and aspects of Beaker culture. It is at this horizon that a new component of ancestry in ADMIXTURE analysis, originating in pastoralist cultures of the Pontic Steppe, enters the island, also visualised in the dramatic eastward shift of Irish genetic variation in PCA. Importantly, no clear distinction can be made between the populations of Early Bronze Age, Iron Age and Modern Ireland, in either PCA or ADMIXTURE analysis. Also at this juncture, in striking contrast with the previous Mesolithic to Neolithic transition, male lineages witness a near complete turnover. R1b-L151 haplogroups, which segregate with the Atlantic Modal Haplotype (Y Chromosome Consortium 2002), dominate in the island’s population from this point in time onwards, with the subclabe R1b-L21, closely associated with the modern Irish population, occurring in the vast majority of Bronze and Iron Age samples. Conversely, the mitochondrial make-up of the population remains relatively similar to the preceding Neolithic, albeit with several steppe-related lineages appearing at this time (U2, I, W) (Haak et al. 2015)."

    So it seems Lara Cassidy's findings in Ireland don't match the 50% replacement seen in GB in Patterson's findings.
    Last edited by Webb; 10-13-2021 at 03:37 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    This is from Lara Cassidy's Thesis:

    "Bronze Age Continuity
    The third and final population of Ireland that can be considered as a discrete genetic entity arrives in the Chalcolithic period (2,500-2,200 BC), likely alongside metallurgy and aspects of Beaker culture. It is at this horizon that a new component of ancestry in ADMIXTURE analysis, originating in pastoralist cultures of the Pontic Steppe, enters the island, also visualised in the dramatic eastward shift of Irish genetic variation in PCA. Importantly, no clear distinction can be made between the populations of Early Bronze Age, Iron Age and Modern Ireland, in either PCA or ADMIXTURE analysis. Also at this juncture, in striking contrast with the previous Mesolithic to Neolithic transition, male lineages witness a near complete turnover. R1b-L151 haplogroups, which segregate with the Atlantic Modal Haplotype (Y Chromosome Consortium 2002), dominate in the island’s population from this point in time onwards, with the subclabe R1b-L21, closely associated with the modern Irish population, occurring in the vast majority of Bronze and Iron Age samples. Conversely, the mitochondrial make-up of the population remains relatively similar to the preceding Neolithic, albeit with several steppe-related lineages appearing at this time (U2, I, W) (Haak et al. 2015)."

    So it seems Lara Cassidy's findings in Ireland don't match the 50% replacement seen in GB in Patterson's findings.
    Well, we will see. But in any case, L21 is not sufficient enough. And we are dealing with migration of closely related populations. Not sure you can find something with ADMIXTURE.

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