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Thread: Upcoming paper on Anglo-Saxon migration period??

  1. #3181
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    Quote Originally Posted by jadegreg View Post
    Far from ideal, yes. However at least Kent represents a target for the A-S invasions, and EMA samples from Kent and Cornwall are included within the study. Could be worse....
    It's running, individual by individual (because the whole sample doesn't give anything passable).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anglecynn View Post
    They did do a run with the north German samples only as a source for CNE in Britain and found a contribution of 86% rather than 75% however it wasn't quite statistically significant enough. Presumably that shows although north Germany was the best source for most of the CNE like ancestry in Britain, it wasn't all from North Germany.
    We carried out the analysis using qpAdm from ADMIXTOOLS and the basic set of 11 outgroups. We then modelled all early medieval English samples as a two-way admixture between a subset of England Iron Age and Roman period samples (England_LIA_Roman; England_LIA + England_IA_ERoman.SG + England_IA_Roman.SG, excluding one Middle Eastern outlier, n = 32) and a subset of early medieval, non-related Lower Saxony individuals (LowerSaxony_EMA, n = 39; Supp. Table 1). The obtained estimate of Lower Saxony ancestry (86.4% ± 2.2%) is only slightly higher than the CNE estimate obtained using present-day Danish and northern Germans as sources (86.4% vs. 76.3%), although the p-value of this qpAdm model is borderline to significance (p > 0.018). This may be related to heterogeneity within the early medieval English populations, especially with respect to affinity to the Scandinavian Peninsula (Supp. Note 6) and France Iron Age-related ancestry (Supp. Note 5).
    I assume you're referring to this section? In my post I was thinking of the modern cohort in particular. Danish IA-samples are very limited and partly tainted with poor coverage. The rest they used are mostly from heterogenous Viking Age-sites. The best sources for England_EMA as a whole are however Issendorf, Zetel, Liebenau and Schortens (table S3.11), all with tail probs > 0.8. No problems with that.
    Last edited by Bygdedweller; 10-23-2022 at 09:44 AM.

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  5. #3183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bygdedweller View Post
    I assume you're referring to this section? In my post I was thinking of the modern cohort in particular. Danish IA-samples are very limited and partly tainted with poor coverage. The rest they used are mostly from heterogenous Viking Age-sites. The best sources for England_EMA as a whole are however Issendorf, Zetel, Liebenau and Schortens (table S3.11), all with tail probs > 0.8. No problems with that.
    Don't forget to take a look at the coverage!
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  7. #3184
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    Quote Originally Posted by CopperAxe View Post
    It all boils down to Angles' argument of the spread of Proto-Germanic from Sweden (with an arrow pointing to the Mälar lake region) into continental Europe during the Iron Age more or less. In the latest episode on this season the debate was whether West-Germanics such as Anglo-Saxons were the result of peninsular Scandinavians migrating into continental Europe and then ending up mixing to a 1-1 ratio with champagne_ia types e.g Gauls. Finn doesn't agree because it doesn't take into account northern continental Europe (southern Denmark, Northern Germany, Jastorf culture etc.) and its inhabitants. Many more episodes to come this season!

    On second thought revisited. Thanks CopperAxe!
    Last edited by Finn; 10-23-2022 at 02:40 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by anglesqueville View Post
    I tend to agree with this summary of the scenario. At the bottom, far at the bottom, there is the question of the "direction of the arrows" when drawing up a geographical and chronological map of Germanization (in the only reasonable sense, that is to say in the linguistic sense). For me, to use Jaakko Häkkinen's formula in an already very old thread, the arrows go from north to south, period. For Finn, I imagine it's the reverse, as with Udolph and Euler. I say "I imagine", because I'm not always sure I understand what he writes (too many shocking formulas and metaphors for my narrow and cold mind). That said, I must put a number of caveats.
    1) This discussion has polluted this thread but is actually inappropriate there. I can't imagine the Anglo-Saxon invasions starting anywhere other than the North Sea coast. And it is quite clear in my mind that this is an internal phenomenon of the North West Germanic branch, not North Germanic. I never claimed that the "Anglo-Saxons" came from Scandinavia. So, if we put this study back in the centre of the discussions, in terms of its central subject (the Invasions), apart from criticisms and disappointments as to its methods, there is simply no controversy.
    2) So we are now talking about the nature of this famous "CNE".
    2a) I have no objection in principle to the participation of central-northern European groups in the constitution of this genetic profile. It even seems quite inevitable to me. The first thing I did when I put together my working files was put Halberstadt into them (weeks before Finn had the mystical revelation). Problem1: Halberstadt doesn't work, it's as brutal as that. Problem2: we have nothing else. I say "nothing else" to say "Late Bronze Age or Iron genomes from the central-northern European region". To imagine that we can easily plug this hole with genomes from previous periods would, in my humble opinion, be falling into a trap. It suffices to become aware of this to observe on a PCA the position of the Dutch groups from the initial Bronze to the final Iron. So this question of the participation of central-northern European groups in the constitution of "CNE" does not arise, for lack of data. I hope that will change, but so far the reality is this and no other. So, as far as I am concerned, I remain faithful to the good old injunction of good old Wittgenstein “Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen.”
    2b) What we can talk about are models that have as their sources the Scandinavians of the Iron Age (I am taking the Norwegians, because in the Swedes only two genomes have sufficient coverage, of which one is only passable, and in the Danes, one only genome does the job, for cryptic reasons as I explained recently). It turns out that these models exist, and in addition have adjustments that are often close to perfection. I already explained that the only reason that made me complete the sources with the French_Champagne_IA group is that this group gives the best quality models. I am, for a lot of reasons, annoyed by this situation, and I have tested a lot of alternative choices without finding anything better, or even anything equivalent. So I will concentrate on what has been the major source of the shouting matches: Norway_IA.
    2c) I have said and repeated that these models are models, only models and nothing but models. That there is room for a certain interpretative uncertainty from these models, it would not occur to me to deny it. But I can't think of a more economical interpretation (parsimonious if you prefer, in the sense of Occam's principle) than one that suggests Scandinavia-sourced gene flow. I was wrong, however, to suggest in passing that my hunch leaned toward a recent, and therefore fatally massive, flow. It is my intuition, but I must add that I am very suspicious of my intuition. The heterogeneity of the models is indisputable, and it is this that I am tempted to interpret in this way. But frankly, I would not risk my life on this point, and if one day (one can dream) elements tipped the scales in favor of a continuous infiltration throughout the millennium preceding the time of the study, I wouldn't be overly shocked.
    What causes Danish samples to not be passable?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Granary View Post
    What causes Danish samples to not be passable?
    https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....l=1#post883433
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    I made a correction I stated that Jastorf IA was the real ancestor of the Anglo-Saxons.

    The core of the Anglo-Saxons were the people that lived in Roman times on the bottleneck (Schleswig Holstein, Southern Jutland). They were the most Northern Suebi. The Angli and Warini had the Suebian 'trademark' the Suebian knot. They were bound by a same cult, the Nerthus cult. And they probably spoke a language that was rooted in the language of Jastorf IA, according to many the first Germanic speaking area. The Elbe was their lifeline, and Suebi tribes -and related ones- were all over Central Northern Europe.






    As ypu can see Jastorf IA and especially the Northern part of it, follows exactly but really exactly the area in which the Angli and Warini and Jutes (the southern ones) lived:
    foto's delen online

    Jastorf IA is not a derivative of Swedish IA. There is no single modern archeologist who is convinced of this. Pure fringe type of conviction! That lacks any proof.

    But these Northern Suebi were not fare away from the Nordics/Scandics, so as said in all the qadm Scandic IA will score (as next best!!).

    Nevertheless on an umap, were are the Anglo-Saxons? and were the Goths and Scandics? Indeed:

    Last edited by Finn; 10-23-2022 at 02:32 PM.

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  14. #3188
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    Quote Originally Posted by anglesqueville View Post
    2c) I have said and repeated that these models are models, only models and nothing but models. That there is room for a certain interpretative uncertainty from these models, it would not occur to me to deny it. But I can't think of a more economical interpretation (parsimonious if you prefer, in the sense of Occam's principle) than one that suggests Scandinavia-sourced gene flow. I was wrong, however, to suggest in passing that my hunch leaned toward a recent, and therefore fatally massive, flow. It is my intuition, but I must add that I am very suspicious of my intuition. The heterogeneity of the models is indisputable, and it is this that I am tempted to interpret in this way. But frankly, I would not risk my life on this point, and if one day (one can dream) elements tipped the scales in favor of a continuous infiltration throughout the millennium preceding the time of the study, I wouldn't be overly shocked.
    Thanks for your interpretation. I guess it shouldn't be surprising if it turned out that the process that formed the early English, inter alia--a new "whole" formed by a local group and the continuous invasion/infiltration of a similar but separate group (or groups) over a long period--would be similar to the process that may have formed "CNE"--a "whole" formed by a local group and the continuous infiltration of a similar but separate group (or groups) over a long period.
    Paper Trail: 37.5% England and Colonial America, 37.5% Ireland, 12.5% Sweden, 11% Alsace (distant NW Switzerland), 1.5% SW Germany

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    I don’t see Hartlepool, either.
    So an update

    Even though there are 479 A-S samples in my dataset, the quality requirements of snp coverage were only met by 279.

    The projection used 279 qualifying samples and 1,197,253 snps (high quality coverage).

    This matrix is why it took 20 hours on 20 threads at 2Ghz.

    Code:
      Read P input from anglo.32.P.in
    Size of G: 279x1197253
    Harlepool has 57.50% coverage
    Rookery Hill samples ranged from 69.74% to 2.50% coverage
    Last edited by PLogan; 10-23-2022 at 02:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PLogan View Post
    So an update

    Even though there are 479 A-S samples in my dataset, the quality requirements of snp coverage were only met by 279.

    The projection used 279 qualifying samples and 1,197,253 snps (high quality coverage).

    This matrix is why it took 20 hours on 20 threads at 2Ghz.
    Bummer. Hartlepool (only one guy) was one of the authors' examples of "non-Scandinavian" 100% CNE, and it would have been interesting to see what you turned up with him.

    Biodegradable DF19s again.

    Then again, if he's such a crappy sample, I don't know how much the authors can conclude about him either.
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112>FT354149

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
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