E-V13 origins: Candidate cultures and what we can read out of YFull

[Riverman]

I think that's worth a new thread, because I used the YFull data to compare it with the timeline for the regions in question for E-V13.

Here another map, showing the more important archaeological cultures (very roughly, surely not always correct geographically in detail, but its more about their relative positions) for the MBA-LBA which are of importance for the debate:



https://ibb.co/0FKRTHC

Would anyone add another cultural formation as a potentially important group for the E-V13 spread in the LBA-EIA?

Its also worth to mention how often on YFull, which covers at best half of the lineages, specific TMRCAs appear.
5.000 x 0
4.900 x 0
4.800 x 0
4.700 x 0
4.600 x 1
4.500 x 0
4.400 x 5
4.100 x 0
4.200 x 0
4.100 x 5
4.000 x 10
3.900 x 7
3.800 x 14
3.700 x 3
3.600 x 3
3.500 x 2
3.400 x 7
3.300 x 4
3.200 x 5
3.100 x 13
3.000 x 12
2.900 x 10
2.800 x 12
2.700 x 13
2.600 x 4
2.500 x 14
2.400 x 7
2.300 x 12
2.200 x 5
2.100 x 6
2.000 x 1
1.900 x 0
1.800 x 4
1.700 x 2
1.600 x 2
1.500 x 4
1.400 x 7
1.300 x 6
1.200 x 7
1.100 x 9
1.000 x 9
900 x 6
800 x 5
700 x 12
600 x 2
500 x 8

I used that for a graph, to illustrate the pattern better and added the main events of importance:



https://ibb.co/0MrjSBW

I think the pattern is pretty clear and as for the timings, 1-2 centuries up or down won't change the bigger picture in most these instances. I was surprised myself how big the obvious impact of Tumulus Culture and the Celtic-Roman invasions was. These were by far the biggest shocks, major events, against the good run E-V13 had before and after these major negative turning points.
The effect of these two events is obviously as big or bigger than the Avar, Germanic and Slavic tribal migrations, at least if talking about absolute numbers, relative percentage, that's another thing. Obviously the data on YFull is not as good (complete, big, otherwise excellent of course) than on FTDNA, especially for the newer, younger branches, but I think the result is still ok and usable.

[Riverman]

I made a second graph, comparing E-V13 directly with J-L283 and there are couple of remarkable differences and similarities:



https://ibb.co/Cs2vFdX

To begin with, I think we see even less of the J-L283 story than from the E-V13 for the earlier stages, because it looks to me as some major strains from Pannonia and the West Balkan didn't survive in big enough numbers to be visible here. So that's a limitation, its primarily about those J-L283 which did survive, and their reduction was probably more drastic in the Iron Age and afterwards than that of E-V13.

The most important thing to notice from this comparison is where E-V13 and J-L283 (with the mentioned limitation, only the survivors) differ:
- In the Early Bronze Age J-L283 had a much smaller expansion than E-V13
- They profited slightly earlier from Late Tumulus culture adoption and early Urnfield expansion, but much more moderately than the massive growth of E-V13
- The massive setback E-V13 experienced when the Cimmerians invaded and the Channelled Ware koine broke up, was used by the J-L283 for expanding at the very same time! So they seem to have make usage of the Channelled Ware/Eastern Urnfield weakness shortly after the steppe Cimmerians invasion, this short uptick ended as soon as the remains of Channelled Ware being reorganised and started to form Psenicevo-Basarabi cultural formations, and into (Eastern) Hallstatt. E-V13 goes up right when they expanded and J-L283 goes down again.
- The Celtic invasion was felt earlier by J-L283, like expected, because their Western groups (Pannonia, Slovenia, Croatia) suffered heavily from the La Tene expansion. But on the longer run they did better, they didn't suffer as much from the Celtic and Roman invasion as the E-V13 populations did. Presumably because of what I did mention earlier, the long and costly, absolutely devastating Roman wars in Macedonia-Eastern Illyria and Thrace, in Pannonia and of course the Dacian Wars. Both E-V13 and J-L283 were in decline in that time, but J-L283 less so, they seem to have survived the Roman era better.
- The opposite is true for the migration period. E-V13 did good, rather massively expand whereas J-L283 was going down significantly, practically immediately.
- The later Medieval time shows especially the Albanian and Southern Vlach expansions, but also the high level of testing for some of these new branches especially from Albania and Britain.

[Riverman]

I made another comparison with R-PF7563 and R-CTS9219, like suggested by rafc. Here is the graph:


What I would read out of that:
R-PF7563 has not a lot in common with the dynamic of E-V13, whereas R-CTS9219 has some phases, at least of synchronicity, if not direct common history. Especially in the Early Bronze Age, both the expansion and the downturn when the Pannonian Tell cultures collapsed under the Tumulus culture onslaught is very apparent. R-Z2103 being found now in various Pannonian groups for a reason. That looks more than just pure chance, they both experienced the same, whether they were in one group, or in neighbouring groups.
The Channelled Ware/Urnfield expansion clearly hurt them more than it helped, so they were definitely not part of the same movement as E-V13 was in the LBA-EIA transition.

The next big thing is the Pannonian-Carpathian-Balkan demise when first La Tene Celts and then the Romans invaded. Again, very clear pattern, they both go down, they suffer from the demographic losses caused by these attacks, destruction and replacement. The sheer economical damage alone must have been horrendous, not talking about killed and enslaved people.

And there is one last big synchronous event, which is the Albanian and Southern Vlach expansion in the Medieval era, that's one of the few cases all three, E-V13, J-L283 and R-CTS9219 go up together. Very nice pattern, fairly obvious founder effects from these groups, also due to the excellent Albanian sampling - which other modern European population don't have, and if they would, the timings might be somewhat different.
Interestingly, R-PF7563 look rather different, they seem to have been fairly stable throughout time, no big ups or down, just staying at about the same frequency throughout time.

[mount123]

I made a second graph, comparing E-V13 directly with J-L283 and there are couple of remarkable differences and similarities:


To begin with, I think we see even less of the J-L283 story than from the E-V13 for the earlier stages, because it looks to me as some major strains from Pannonia and the West Balkan didn't survive in big enough numbers to be visible here. So that's a limitation, its primarily about those J-L283 which did survive, and their reduction was probably more drastic in the Iron Age and afterwards than that of E-V13.

The most important thing to notice from this comparison is where E-V13 and J-L283 (with the mentioned limitation, only the survivors) differ:
- In the Early Bronze Age J-L283 had a much smaller expansion than E-V13
- They profited slightly earlier from Late Tumulus culture adoption and early Urnfield expansion, but much more moderately than the massive growth of E-V13
- The massive setback E-V13 experienced when the Cimmerians invaded and the Channelled Ware koine broke up, was used by the J-L283 for expanding at the very same time! So they seem to have make usage of the Channelled Ware/Eastern Urnfield weakness shortly after the steppe Cimmerians invasion, this short uptick ended as soon as the remains of Channelled Ware being reorganised and started to form Psenicevo-Basarabi cultural formations, and into (Eastern) Hallstatt. E-V13 goes up right when they expanded and J-L283 goes down again.
- The Celtic invasion was felt earlier by J-L283, like expected, because their Western groups (Pannonia, Slovenia, Croatia) suffered heavily from the La Tene expansion. But on the longer run they did better, they didn't suffer as much from the Celtic and Roman invasion as the E-V13 populations did. Presumably because of what I did mention earlier, the long and costly, absolutely devastating Roman wars in Macedonia-Eastern Illyria and Thrace, in Pannonia and of course the Dacian Wars. Both E-V13 and J-L283 were in decline in that time, but J-L283 less so, they seem to have survived the Roman era better.
- The opposite is true for the migration period. E-V13 did good, rather massively expand whereas J-L283 was going down significantly, practically immediately.
- The later Medieval time shows especially the Albanian and Southern Vlach expansions, but also the high level of testing for some of these new branches especially from Albania and Britain.

The hypothetical "similarities" you point out are rather sneaky and very much speculative given the current available data.

Also an important note: Samples from Albania cannot be taken as representatives for Kosovo which is severely undersampled or rural regions such as Malesia (and many more).

[venustas]

Where is Malesia????

[Riverman]

Since I was quite satisfied with the results and think they are meaningful, by and large, I added some other haplogroups to see how they correlate:



https://ibb.co/sPSSkHN

The sample sizes are not really comparable sometimes, because there are obviously much more I1 samples not just because its a more common haplogroup, but also because of sampling bias. However, the correlations are still largely valid and meaninful.

What we can see, for example, is that I-M253 had just like E-V13 and R-CTS9219 a near collapse point when the steppe expansion took place. It plummeted from amazing 13 branches at 4.500 yBP to 1 at 4.400 yBP. However, it recovered quite quickly and better than other haplogroups.

R-U106 had its first bigger expansion at the same time as did E-V13 and R-CTS9219, with Unetice and Pannonian Tell culture expansions, which seem to have worked together largely, at least economically. What we see next is really interesting, another peak for R-U106 with the Tumulus culture expansion, while I-M253, E-V13 and R-CTS9219 went down really bad.

I always check for synchronicities between haplogroups, and its very clear that it started for I-M253 and R-U106 with Urnfiel. They were not synchronous before, but afterwards, its clear, they both grew with Urnfield/cremation horizon. Especially I-M253 grew with Urnfield really big. Before, E-V13 and R-U106 playe with I-M253 in the same ballpark, but after Urnfield I1 just goes right through the roof and stays at that level ever since. Its really an Urnfield profiteur par excellence, just like E-V13.

With the Cimmerian invasion and the collapse of Urnfield, all three go down, E-V13, I-M253 and R-U106. All three quite evidently suffered from this event. With the re-establishment of the networks, with the evolution of Basarabi and into early Hallstatt, all three go up again, quite massively once more. That's a classical recovery and shows that the Northern European and the Carpathian basin sphere being very closely connected since Urnfield the latest.

The same can be observed yet another time, when first the Scythians and then the La Tene Celtic invasion caused havoc, whole tribes being annihilated, the system collapsed. All three go down once more: E-V13, I-M253 and R-U106, all plummet, but not that extreme, its no collapse, just a depression.

Soon after, there is yet again another recovery and expansion period, for all three E-V13, I-M253 and R-U106. The tribal groups of the Germanics are expanding, the Carpathian basin doing well too, just for the next and this time far bigger downturn with the Roman invasion. Very clear, all three affected the same way once more. For E-V13 the Roman invasion and conquest was the hardest period this haplogroup experienced at least since the steppe invasion. They did better even during the Tumulus culture invasion.

The uptick in the Roman era, note Roman era, not necessarily in the Roman Empire, was again totally in sync with I-M253 and R-U106! It could very well have been the start of a tribal expansion within the Germanic controlled sphere. Interestingly its very obvious which haplogroup exploited the weakness of the Northern European and Carpathian sphere during the Roman onslaught: Whereas E-V13, I-M253 and R-U106 went all down, for the first time and with the biggest growth in their history, I-CTS10936 took the chance and surpasses even I-M253 about 200 AD.

In any case, going through this, the Roman influence on E-V13 was, as far as I can tell, going by this and other data too, a rather decisively negative one for E-V13. They rather expanded with I-M253 and R-U106 for most of the time, being largely synchronous, to some degree even in the Late Antiquity and Early Medieval period, than with anybody else.

The massive pre-Slavic expansion of I-CTS10936 is quite interesting, as it suggests a strong demographic build up right after the first Germanic weakness against the Romans and in the East. The Germanics go down, I-CTS10936 goes up instantly and quite radically.

But what I take with me from this is definitely that both the Cimmerians, Scythians, Celts and the Romans did truly punish E-V13, at least initially. More so than Germanics and Slavs did. After things calmed down, they usually seem to have recovered, but the initial impact of every disturbance of the Carpathian <-> North European connection was felt on both ends. That's really remarkable how synchronous E-V13, I-M253 and R-U106 were for most of the prehistorical time since the later Bronze Age, the Urnfield period which connected them.

[vasil]

Interestingly its very obvious which haplogroup exploited the weakness of the Northern European and Carpathian sphere during the Roman onslaught: Whereas E-V13, I-M253 and R-U106 went all down, for the first time and with the biggest growth in their history, I-CTS10936 took the chance and surpasses even I-M253 about 200 AD.

In any case, going through this, the Roman influence on E-V13 was, as far as I can tell, going by this and other data too, a rather decisively negative one for E-V13. They rather expanded with I-M253 and R-U106 for most of the time, being largely synchronous, to some degree even in the Late Antiquity and Early Medieval period, than with anybody else.

The massive pre-Slavic expansion of I-CTS10936 is quite interesting, as it suggests a strong demographic build up right after the first Germanic weakness against the Romans and in the East. The Germanics go down, I-CTS10936 goes up instantly and quite radically.

Our major height in branching is actually Slavic as its the same for R1a lineages as well, ph2ter made some charts a while ago. We do have a previous uptick on I-CTS4002 level that happened in late Wartberg/early Bell Beaker which is probably the result of a local male getting absorbed by the Corded Ware newcomers and getting a little bit of an advantage.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/I-CTS4002/

[Uka]

Where is Malesia????

Depends which he's referring to. Malesia Madhe is the Albanian part of Montenegro. I think Malesia in Albania which is part of the wider geographic region between both borders, is pretty well tested I think. Or at least some portions of it are. There's a lot of villages that haven't been tested and Kosove and Albanians from Montenegro are very under tested.

[Riverman]

Our major height in branching is actually Slavic as its the same for R1a lineages as well, ph2ter made some charts a while ago. We do have a previous uptick on I-CTS4002 level that happened in late Wartberg/early Bell Beaker which is probably the result of a local male getting absorbed by the Corded Ware newcomers and getting a little bit of an advantage.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/I-CTS4002/

Would be great to compare the data from FTDNA with that of YFull...

[Kelmendasi]

Depends which he's referring to. Malesia Madhe is the Albanian part of Montenegro. I think Malesia in Albania which is part of the wider geographic region between both borders, is pretty well tested I think. Or at least some portions of it are. There's a lot of villages that haven't been tested and Kosove and Albanians from Montenegro are very under tested.

Malësia itself is the region spanning from the Albanian-speaking territories of eastern Montenegro (mainly the Tuzi Municipality) to the highlands of Tropoja in north-eastern Albania. This region is then broken down into subregions such as Malësia e Madhe and Malësia e Gjakovës. The former covers the former tribal territories now within the borders of the Tuzi Municipality in eastern Montenegro and the Malësi e Madhe District in north-western Albania, the latter covers those within Tropoja and also some parts of western Kosovo.