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    Slavic Chronology

    I have gathered the following chronology for Slavic prehistory between 3500 BC and 450 AD, based mainly on linguistics and Y-DNA research:

    Years 5000-3000 BC = somewhere in the steppes there live Proto-Indo-Europeans
    ca. 3000 BC (6500-4500 ybp) = Proto-Balto-Slavs split from the rest of IE folks / sources: Gray 2011 & Kushniarevich 2015*
    Years 3000-1400 BC = somewhere in Europe lives the Balto-Slavic tribe or population
    ca. 1400 BC (4000-3000 ybp) = (Pre-)Proto-Slavs split from the rest of PBSl / sources: Kushniarevich 2015 & Gray 2011
    Years 1400 - 700/200 BC = somewhere in Europe lives a Proto-Slavic population - rather still small in numbers
    ca. 700-200 BC (2700-2200 ybp) = start of a demographic boom of male ancestors of Kashubs & Sorbs / source: Rebala 2012**
    Years 700-200 BC up to 125 AD = somewhere in Europe lives a Proto-Slavic population - already more numerous
    Period 300-100 BC = time of a major synchronic demographic boom of R-M458, R-Z280 & I-CTS10936 male lineages (Riverman's chart @)
    ca. 100-125 AD (1900 ybp) = PSl split into Proto-West & Proto-SouthEast (phonetics-based) / source: Kushniarevich 2015 & Blazek 2020***
    Period 100-200 AD = time of a major synchronic demographic boom of R-M458, R-Z280 & I-CTS10936 male lineages (Riverman's chart @)
    Years 100-270 AD = somewhere live Proto-West Slavs and in slightly different area live Proto-SouthEast Slavs
    ca. 270 AD (ca. 1750 ybp) = Proto-SouthEast Slavs split into Proto-East and Proto-South Slavs / source: Starostin 1999****
    Years 270 to 300-400 AD = Slavs are already divided into at least 3 groups (and Boz is recorded as chief of the Antes ca. 340-380 AD)
    ca. 300-420 AD (2100-1400 ybp) = Proto-West Slavs start to split (Y-DNA Sorbs & Kashubs separate) / source: Rebala 2012 & Starostin 1999
    ca. 400-700 AD (1600-1300 ybp) = Proto-South and Proto-East Slavs begin to split & separate / source: Kushniarevich 2015
    Period 300-400 AD = = final major synchronic demographic boom of R-M458, R-Z280 & I-CTS10936 male lineages (Riverman's chart @)

    *The oldest possible time (6500 ybp) is quoted from Gray 2011 & the youngest possible time (4500 ybp) is quoted from Kushniarevich 2015.
    **Rebala estimated here the time of the beginning of demographic boom of male lineages of ancestors of Sorbs and Kashubs.
    ***I accpeted here the phonetics-based "West vs. SouthEast" model of 1st division within Common Slavic (section 2.1. of Blazek 2020 paper).
    ****I accpeted here the 1st split of Common Slavic dated to 125 AD and the 2nd split dated to 270 AD based on Starostin 1999, but I disagree with him that the 1st split was into North vs. South. Instead, I accept models from section 2.1 of Blazek 2020 which say that at first West split from East&South. This is also in agreement with Y-DNA: both South and East Slavs have high % of I2a, while West Slavs have much lower % of I2a.

    What do you think about this? Do you disagree with anything or have something to add? Let's discuss.

    List of studies used:

    Gray et al. 2011 -
    Rebala et al. 2012 - (he estimated time when Y-chr male ancestors of Sorbs & Kashubs split)
    Kushniarevich et al. 2015 -
    Blazek 2020 -
    Starostin 1999 (his conclusions are quoted by Blazek in the link above)


    @ Riverman's chart (quoted below), I suppose it is based on ph2ter's calculations?:


    This is probably the most of interesting of the papers I listed above:


    Especially the three concepts about the initial split of Slavic languages are interesting:

    1. Common Slavic split first into Proto-West Slavic and Proto-SouthEast Slavic
    2. Common Slavic split first into Proto-WestSouth Slavic and Proto-East Slavic
    3. Common Slavic split first into Proto-South Slavic and Proto-WestEast Slavic

    Choose your favourite! By contrast Kushniarevich claims it split into 3 groups instantly.

    And then there are some additional "mixed concepts" which say for example that South Slavic is not one group, but Macedonian-Bulgarian is descended from East Slavic, while Slovenian and Serbo-Croatian from West Slavic (also listed in that Blazek 2020 paper).
    Last edited by Tomenable; 05-10-2022 at 11:34 AM.

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