Slavic Chronology

[Tomenable]

I have gathered the following chronology for Slavic prehistory between 3500 BC and 450 AD, based mainly on linguistics and Y-DNA research:

Years 5000-3000 BC = somewhere in the steppes there live Proto-Indo-Europeans
ca. 3000 BC (6500-4500 ybp) = Proto-Balto-Slavs split from the rest of IE folks / sources: Gray 2011 & Kushniarevich 2015*
Years 3000-1400 BC = somewhere in Europe lives the Balto-Slavic tribe or population
ca. 1400 BC (4000-3000 ybp) = (Pre-)Proto-Slavs split from the rest of PBSl / sources: Kushniarevich 2015 & Gray 2011
Years 1400 - 700/200 BC = somewhere in Europe lives a Proto-Slavic population - rather still small in numbers
ca. 700-200 BC (2700-2200 ybp) = start of a demographic boom of male ancestors of Kashubs & Sorbs / source: Rebala 2012**
Years 700-200 BC up to 125 AD = somewhere in Europe lives a Proto-Slavic population - already more numerous
Period 300-100 BC = time of a major synchronic demographic boom of R-M458, R-Z280 & I-CTS10936 male lineages (Riverman's chart @)
ca. 100-125 AD (1900 ybp) = PSl split into Proto-West & Proto-SouthEast (phonetics-based) / source: Kushniarevich 2015 & Blazek 2020***
Period 100-200 AD = time of a major synchronic demographic boom of R-M458, R-Z280 & I-CTS10936 male lineages (Riverman's chart @)
Years 100-270 AD = somewhere live Proto-West Slavs and in slightly different area live Proto-SouthEast Slavs
ca. 270 AD (ca. 1750 ybp) = Proto-SouthEast Slavs split into Proto-East and Proto-South Slavs / source: Starostin 1999****
Years 270 to 300-400 AD = Slavs are already divided into at least 3 groups (and Boz is recorded as chief of the Antes ca. 340-380 AD)
ca. 300-420 AD (2100-1400 ybp) = Proto-West Slavs start to split (Y-DNA Sorbs & Kashubs separate) / source: Rebala 2012 & Starostin 1999
ca. 400-700 AD (1600-1300 ybp) = Proto-South and Proto-East Slavs begin to split & separate / source: Kushniarevich 2015
Period 300-400 AD = = final major synchronic demographic boom of R-M458, R-Z280 & I-CTS10936 male lineages (Riverman's chart @)

*The oldest possible time (6500 ybp) is quoted from Gray 2011 & the youngest possible time (4500 ybp) is quoted from Kushniarevich 2015.
**Rebala estimated here the time of the beginning of demographic boom of male lineages of ancestors of Sorbs and Kashubs.
***I accpeted here the phonetics-based "West vs. SouthEast" model of 1st division within Common Slavic (section 2.1. of Blazek 2020 paper).
****I accpeted here the 1st split of Common Slavic dated to 125 AD and the 2nd split dated to 270 AD based on Starostin 1999, but I disagree with him that the 1st split was into North vs. South. Instead, I accept models from section 2.1 of Blazek 2020 which say that at first West split from East&South. This is also in agreement with Y-DNA: both South and East Slavs have high % of I2a, while West Slavs have much lower % of I2a.

What do you think about this? Do you disagree with anything or have something to add? Let's discuss.

List of studies used:

Gray et al. 2011 - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299878405
Rebala et al. 2012 - https://www.nature.com/articles/ejhg2012190 (he estimated time when Y-chr male ancestors of Sorbs & Kashubs split)
Kushniarevich et al. 2015 - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0135820
Blazek 2020 - https://pressto.amu.edu.pl/index.php...cle/view/31068
Starostin 1999 (his conclusions are quoted by Blazek in the link above)

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@ Riverman's chart (quoted below), I suppose it is based on ph2ter's calculations?:



Edit:

This is probably the most of interesting of the papers I listed above:

Attachment 49523

Especially the three concepts about the initial split of Slavic languages are interesting:

1. Common Slavic split first into Proto-West Slavic and Proto-SouthEast Slavic
2. Common Slavic split first into Proto-WestSouth Slavic and Proto-East Slavic
3. Common Slavic split first into Proto-South Slavic and Proto-WestEast Slavic

Choose your favourite! By contrast Kushniarevich claims it split into 3 groups instantly.

And then there are some additional "mixed concepts" which say for example that South Slavic is not one group, but Macedonian-Bulgarian is descended from East Slavic, while Slovenian and Serbo-Croatian from West Slavic (also listed in that Blazek 2020 paper).

[Riverman]

I think to solve the Proto-Slavic "problem", we need to know way more about Lusatians and their Eastern periphery. Baltoslavs and Germanics have a lot in common, because they being both strongly, very strongly influenced by Urnfielders, Hallstatt and La Tene Celts, yet they were never conquered, assimilated or replaced, like many other people which being submerged under these huge expansions and phenomenons.
In any case there needs to be some sort of link between Lusatians and Baltoslavs, whether Lusatians were themselves speaking a related or a very different tongue, genetically, but espcially culturally, there must have been at least some kind of hub and intermediaries. The Eastern peripheral Lusatians are surely related to Baltoslavs, either fully or mixed in a transitional grouping.

ca. 1500 BC (4000-3000 ybp) = (Pre-)Proto-Slavs split from the rest of PBSl / sources: Kushniarevich 2015 & Gray 2011
Years 1500 - 700/300 BC = somewhere in Europe lives a Proto-Slavic population - still very small in numbers

I think Trzciniec is key and how it either being transformed, split or in many areas replaced, this needs to be investigated. To me how the Slavs acquired the custom of cremation and iron weapons is a key point. Pretty much the same case as in Germanics and Jastorf.

[ph2ter]

I think that this chronology is very 'optimistic' regarding the age of the Proto-Slavic and its split from the Proto-Balto-Slavic.
It goes too deep into the past.
From Y-DNA clade expansion Proto-Slavic doesn't look so old.

My old Y-DNA expansion plots point to very recent events regarding the occurrence of Proto Slavic or at least its expansion (before 300 BCE Slavic is almost non-existing):

[Tomenable]

I think that this chronology is very 'optimistic' regarding the age of the Proto-Slavic and its split from the Proto-Balto-Slavic.
It goes too deep into the past.

I listed my sources - as I said it is based on linguistic expertise, but also on genetics (Y-DNA research, Rebala 2012 study).

Rebala estimated that a demographic boom among male ancestors (so Y-DNA) of Sorbs and Kashubs began 2700-2000 years ago (this is 95% confidence interval) with average value 2350-2300 years ago (so around 300 BC). I listed this as 700-200 BC in the opening post.

[Tomenable]

My old Y-DNA expansion plots point to very recent events regarding the occurrence of Proto Slavic or at least its expansion

Ambron told me that your results are in agreement with Rebala 2012 that Slavic Y-DNA started its demographic boom ca. 300 BC (2300 years ago). However, Rebala has a large 95% confidence interval and the earliest possible date is as early as 700 BC (2700 years ago).

BTW those charts posted by Riverman are also based on your calculations?

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We also need to take into account possible population bottlenecks (and then recoveries from bottlenecks) throughout time.

[ph2ter]

BCE is before our era (before Christ).
2000 - 1700 is 300 CE

[Tomenable]

(before 300 BCE Slavic is almost non-existing)

300 BCE is exactly the average date for the beginning of Slavic Y-DNA demographic explosion as estimated by Rebala 2012 study.
He estimated it around 2700-2000 years ago (95% confidence interval) with average around 2300-2350 years ago (so 300 BCE).
But the earliest possible within his 95% confidence interval date is 700 BCE. Dates closer to 1 BC (2000 ybp) I do not take seriously.

[Tomenable]

BCE is before our era (before Christ).
2000 - 1700 is 300 CE

Sorry, he estimated 2300 not 1700. He gives 1700 + 600 = 2300 years in total to be precise.

He estimated that ancestors of Sorbs and Kashubs split 1700 years ago, after 600 years of demographic expansion before that.
So 1700 + 600 = 2300. This is the average, while the confidence interval is 2100 to 1400 + 600 years before (so 2700-2000).

It goes too deep into the past.

Not if we assume that the Pre-Proto-Slavic "tribe" were mainly R-Z280 males, with R-M458 and I-CTS1211 being few in numbers (possibly among them, but just a minority). R-M458 and I-CTS1211 rose to numerical prominence later on, which of course doesn't mean that they had not been present before. But the Pre-Proto-Slavic "tribe" could be for example 90% R-Z280, 5% R-M458 and 5% I-CTS1211. Later proportions changed.

[Riverman]

@ Riverman's chart (quoted below), I suppose it is based on ph2ter's calculations?:

No, its a very simple concept based on YFull TMRCA data. It counts how many new (so far) documented branches being estimated for which time frame. Usually, expanding groups had more surviving new branches. Of course, it just measures branches for which we have modern or ancient data at this point. But since the data base on YFull is not that bad and growing, it gives us a hint. However, relatively speaking, lineages like R-M458 and E-V13 would be even bigger in absolute numbers vs. the North Western European I-M253 and R-U106, because they have more testers in absolute numbers because of the testing bias.

[Tomenable]

Ph2ter's estimate of 300 BCE is in agreement with Rebala's so what's the issue with my chronology?

But as I wrote Rebala gives the earliest possible date as 700 BCE - with 300 BCE being the average.