"The Genetic History of the Southern Arc: A Bridge between West Asia & Europe"

[Riverman]

In Greece I2din to me it looks like the 3rd major/dominant yDNA along with R1b after EV13 and J2a.R1a has a lower frequency but still it’s there.Obviously Sclaveni were dominantly I2din men with lower amounts of R1a and maybe EV13.The point is that Antes tribes migrated to the southern balkans as well.In Bulgaria for example there were Antes who probably increased R1a lineages there.

I made the TMRCA statistic based on YFull and its very clear that the main R1a clades of the Baltoslavs expanded both with I2a-Din and R-M458. However, these are two separate very early Slavic groups, both with R-Z280, but largely split by the presence or absence of I2a and R-M458 respectively. That's very clear going by the data. Therefore if I2a became dominant in specific Slavic groups, it became so later, by more recent founder effects than the early split timing.

[Karagjoz]

That is possible. As there were Slavic tribes that invaded the areas before Serbs or Bulgarians.







[B]






Albanian dialect split predate the Slavs, also Slavic admixture cannot be based on only Y-DNA , there were intermarriages. There were also Goths.

According to rrenjet slavic ancestry in albanians is very early -
"From our current high resolution tests, we note that most of these lineage must have arrived during the migrations of the Early Middle Ages. Younger connections, dating to the time of the Medieval Slavic Kingdoms and Empires (Serbian, Bulgarian) have not been found yet."

The small percentage of recent ancestry may be from minority groups that settled in albania like bosnians but these people still identify themselves as a minority group so they would be split aside from the albanian results on rrenjet as long as they tell rrenjet they are a minority group -

"With the emergence of the Great Eastern Crisis, in particular the events of the Herzegovina Uprising in 1875 Bosniaks from the Herzegovina Mostar area migrated and resettled in Northern Albania in the Shijak area."

There is also golloborde where a lot of macedonians have settled, not sure if they classify themselves as minority group now or as albanians but on rrenjet they seemed to be labelled as albanians and we see that golloborde has a crazy high rate of slavic r1a at 29% (+9% i-3120)

[Karagjoz]

In Greece I2din to me it looks like the 3rd major/dominant yDNA along with R1b after EV13 and J2a.R1a has a lower frequency but still it’s there.Obviously Sclaveni were dominantly I2din men with lower amounts of R1a and maybe EV13.The point is that Antes tribes migrated to the southern balkans as well.In Bulgaria for example there were Antes who probably increased R1a lineages there.

We will have to wait and see with ancient dna. My i2a lineage for example didnt come from north (serbs/bosnians etc) but from a north east direction, in tosks i2a seems to be more common than r1a whereas for ghegs r1a is bit more common. It looks unlikely that my i2a lineage came with slavs heavier in r1a as it doesnt seem to be the case in modern tosks, it looks like i2a people were already outnumbering the r1a people or there was another founder effect which caused this within albanians. though i think that is unlikely for i2a to keep having these founder effects and end up outnumbering r1a people all the time as you said it i2a-din seems to also be common in greece than r1a. i think the i2a people were already as numerous or more numerous than r1a by this point in south europe

It would be interesting if someone could do a map of i2a-din in europe like riverman did with v13

[parastais]

I made the TMRCA statistic based on YFull and its very clear that the main R1a clades of the Baltoslavs expanded both with I2a-Din and R-M458. However, these are two separate very early Slavic groups, both with R-Z280, but largely split by the presence or absence of I2a and R-M458 respectively. That's very clear going by the data. Therefore if I2a became dominant in specific Slavic groups, it became so later, by more recent founder effects than the early split timing.

Interesting. Can you share more on those 2 separate groups?
(Kinda Antes and Sclavini?)

[peloponnesian]

According to rrenjet slavic ancestry in albanians is very early -

The samples we've got so far from Montenegro, Serbia and Albania tell a different story. I personally didn't expect we'd see so much structure in the Medieval Balkans but here we are. Those Montenegrin samples that are right on the border with Albania and are way more Slavic than modern Montenegrins are a smoking gun. And before you get defensive again, we don't know the details of how it happened. It could have involved intermediate, bilingual groups, it could have involved nomadic people like Vlachs and it could be a long-term process of small-scale admixture that lasted centuries. My pet theory is that the big homogenisation that resulted in the modern cline was facilitated by the Rum millet reforms of the Ottoman Empire. Anyway, I hope in the future we get a big Byzantine and Ottoman aDNA study that will illuminate these processes.

[Karagjoz]

The samples we've got so far from Montenegro, Serbia and Albania tell a different story. I personally didn't expect we'd see so much structure in the Medieval Balkans but here we are. Those Montenegrin samples that are right on the border with Albania and are way more Slavic than modern Montenegrins are a smoking gun. And before you get defensive again, we don't know the details of how it happened. It could have involved intermediate, bilingual groups, it could have involved nomadic people like Vlachs and it could be a long-term process of small-scale admixture that lasted centuries. My pet theory is that the big homogenisation that resulted in the modern cline was facilitated by the Rum millet reforms of the Ottoman Empire. Anyway, I hope in the future we get a big Byzantine and Ottoman aDNA study that will illuminate these processes.

On the borders of slavic countries it may be a different story (as we already see with golloborde anyway) but the bulk of slavic y dna in albanians elsewhere is from very early medieval period

[Riverman]

Interesting. Can you share more on those 2 separate groups?
(Kinda Antes and Sclavini?)

I didn't update it with newer YFull data, but with the old it's pretty clear that there are two peaks of R-Z280+R-M458 and one separate of I-CTS10936+R-Z280. They are not in sync, these were two different Slavic expansions if the data holds up.



Also note that for I2a-Din it primarily one huge expansion event in a pretty short period of time. That's really exceptional for major European haplogroups, because most others, even if experiencing big expansion events, have multiple ones to reach that level. But this is just one skyrocketting one. It didn't make it bigger than other big players, not at all, but it brought it into the top league of European haplotypes from practically nothing.

Also note that R-Z280 expanded earlier than the others big time too, so there is this scenario in which R-Z280 conquers/assimilates a population which has either one or both of these other main Slavic lineages and they just explode as allies (of R-Z280). Other lineages like e.g. some E-V13 ones seem to have joined roughly about the same time. Could point to the Northern Carpathians and some Celtic, Lusatian or Dacian people.

[Karagjoz]

I didn't update it with newer YFull data, but with the old it's pretty clear that there are two peaks of R-Z280+R-M458 and one separate of I-CTS10936+R-Z280. They are not in sync, these were two different Slavic expansions if the data holds up.



Also note that for I2a-Din it primarily one huge expansion event in a pretty short period of time. That's really exceptional for major European haplogroups, because most others, even if experiencing big expansion events, have multiple ones to reach that level. But this is just one skyrocketting one. It didn't make it bigger than other big players, not at all, but it brought it into the top league of European haplotypes from practically nothing.

Also note that R-Z280 expanded earlier than the others big time too, so there is this scenario in which R-Z280 conquers/assimilates a population which has either one or both of these other main Slavic lineages and they just explode as allies (of R-Z280). Other lineages like e.g. some E-V13 ones seem to have joined roughly about the same time. Could point to the Northern Carpathians and some Celtic, Lusatian or Dacian people.

Do you rule out the possibility of i2a-din being present in greater numbers in iron age europe but hasnt been found due to cremation, similar to v13? As you have shown it is clear that r-z280 is the proto slavic line and i2a-din was assimilated around 1700 years ago

[Riverman]

Do you rule out the possibility of i2a-din being present in greater numbers in iron age europe but hasnt been found due to cremation, similar to v13? As you have shown it is clear that r-z280 is the proto slavic line and i2a-din was assimilated around 1700 years ago

We can't completely exclude it, but it surely won't be as big as E-V13 in any period, because if it would have been, we would have found more upstream ancestral lineages. Such widespread lineages usually don't just disappear. So I think however big it was in numbers, it likely was rather localised to put it that way. Many lineages of other big haplogroups died out, or being seriously reduced, yet we usually don't have such big gaps in its phylogenetic tree.
So I guess it was either very localised or generally small. Because of the cremation horizon, we might never be able to really tell unless we get lucky finds from proximate groups which did not cremate or irregulars like from Tollense. Since I would assicated the I2 Tollense warriors with Lusatians, Lusatians are my current favourite.

[Karagjoz]

We can't completely exclude it, but it surely won't be as big as E-V13 in any period, because if it would have been, we would have found more upstream ancestral lineages. Such widespread lineages usually don't just disappear. So I think however big it was in numbers, it likely was rather localised to put it that way. Many lineages of other big haplogroups died out, or being seriously reduced, yet we usually don't have such big gaps in its phylogenetic tree.
So I guess it was either very localised or generally small. Because of the cremation horizon, we might never be able to really tell unless we get lucky finds from proximate groups which did not cremate or irregulars like from Tollense. Since I would assicated the I2 Tollense warriors with Lusatians, Lusatians are my current favourite.

Fair enough, i think lusatians are unlikely -

The Collapse Of Lusatian Culture
Many Scythian arrowheads have been found in Lusatian strongholds, indicating that the eastern aggressors continuously attacked the settlements. The Lusatian strongholds were now in their last stages of survival. Eventually, the culture was devastated and collapsed as a result of both Scythian invasions and the Germanic expansion.