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Thread: When & where did the Balto-Slavic genetic drift emerge

  1. #1
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    Question When & where did the Balto-Slavic genetic drift emerge

    Which are the oldest samples with significant amounts of Balto-Slavic genetic drift?

    It seems that the Balto-Slavic drift began to form around 2425 BC in Central Poland:

    Code:
    Corded_Ware_POL:N47___BC_2425___Coverage_91.43%,0.12862,0.116786,0.089755,0.076874,0.055395,0.021475,0.001175,0.007615,0.016566,-0.017677,-0.00065,-0.007493,-0.000149,-0.005643,0.006379,0.022673,0.013169,0.002027,0.001006,0.011881,0.012478,0.002102,0.004067,-0.010965,-0.001197
    Corded_Ware_POL:N49___BC_2425___Coverage_89.04%,0.122929,0.121864,0.082212,0.088179,0.036622,0.030678,0.00564,0.007154,0.002863,-0.027882,0.002761,-0.001649,0.0055,-0.001789,0.005022,0.018828,0.013038,0.004434,0.005279,0.011631,0.011854,0.003091,-0.006409,-0.008314,0.001557
    Corded_Ware_Baltic:Spiginas2___BC_1930___Coverage_76.53%,0.12862,0.118817,0.099937,0.117573,0.054164,0.040718,0.008225,0.008077,0.013703,-0.034078,0.01429,-0.013938,0.030475,0.022983,0.001357,0.010077,0.006389,-0.000887,0.002514,0.014132,0.011729,-0.005317,-0.008381,-0.027715,0.002395
    https://www.exploreyourdna.com/calcu...century-bc.htm



    ^^^
    Based on this, we can drow a map with a circle showing the area where the Balto-Slavic drift probably emerged between years 2500-2000 BC:

    https://umap.openstreetmap.fr/en/map.../53.699/20.566



    ^^^
    Do you agree with this map? Or is anyone able to find older samples from different region(s) which also harbor a significant amount of BS drift?

    I checked all of the available Fatyanovo samples from Western Russia and they have basically no BS drift. Neither do the Latvian CWC samples.
    Last edited by Tomenable; 08-13-2022 at 03:18 PM.

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    What is "Balto-Slavic genetic drift"? I have yet to see an exact definition for this term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peloponnesian View Post
    What is "Balto-Slavic genetic drift"? I have yet to see an exact definition for this term.
    In terms of ancient DNA, it basically means ancestors of present-day Balts and Northern Slavs.

    When I check Early Bronze Age samples using my "World 6th century BC" calculator, and they score "Balto-Slavic", then I know they were, likely, ancestral to Balto-Slavs.

    Please note that most of South Polish CWC samples don't score "Balto-Slavic", just like Fatyanovo.

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    To put it simply, if an ancient sample is similar in terms of genetic distance etc. to modern Balts and/or North Slavs, then it exhibits Balto-Slavic genetic drift.

    I think the 3 samples which I listed in my post #1 are the three oldest samples which exhibit BS drift. But maybe someone will find older samples of this kind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peloponnesian View Post
    What is "Balto-Slavic genetic drift"? I have yet to see an exact definition for this term.
    "Balto-Slavic" drift is definitely real, the same way that "Kalash drift" or "Palestinian drift" or "BedouinB drift" is real. You can already see this in G25, when a simple WHG+EEF+Steppe model works less well for N and E Slavic and Baltic Europeans than it does for Scandinavians, unless you use the right samples. In this their behavior is a little similar to some bottlenecked Siberians as well (try modeling Mari).

    You can even see this in ADMIXTURE. You would think that, with ancient DNA samples from Yamnaya, Anatolian Neolithic, CHG/Iran_N, EHG, and WHG you can get a very good split of the ancient components in Europeans in a basic unsupervised ADMIXTURE run. Nope! This doesn't happen because almost invariably, a tremendously irritating component appears that peaks in Lithuanians and Latvians and is found at high levels in all Balto-Slavic populations (So Yamnaya ends up being "Lithuanian + CHG/Iran_N", and EHG+WHG also gets messed up a bit). Of course, you can always run supervised ADMIXTURE: this means fixing the components to the right samples (i.e. "EHG"=EHG, "Yamnaya"=Yamnaya, "CHG/Iranian"=CHG/Iran_N etc.) and forcing ADMIXTURE to account for the rest in terms of the components you fixed, but say you're doing an exploratory analysis ("Look, I don't know what the important components are yet!" throw up hands) then you can't do this. In fact, Latvians and Lithuanians can be so attractive that you can get a Steppe_EMBA and Steppe_MLBA component (e.g. by including a very large number of Yamnaya+Afanasievo and Steppe_MLBA populations in a run, and CW populations are intermediate between the two getting Steppe_EMBA+Steppe_MLBA+small %EEF and WHG, as expected) and Balts and Slavs still insist on getting their own "Balto-Slavic" component.

    So Balts and Slavs have this drift, and it is often so prominent in a swathe of Eastern European and Uralic populations (i.e. there are so many populations with this drift) in most datasets used in unsupervised clustering analyses such as PCA and ADMIXTURE that the algorithm insists on splitting it off/giving it a prominent place in dimensionality reduction as one of the primary dimensions of human variation in your dataset(!)

    This drift could have occurred for 2 reasons:

    1. Slavs are a somewhat bottlenecked and recently expanded population with a founder effect (we know this).
    1a. Balts are also pretty bottlenecked (but its weird because they are in a different bottleneck than Slavs, so why should they be treated the same?).
    2. Balts and Slavs have some strange sources of "WHG" ancestry whose place in the WHG/EHG clade--there's more structure there than you think there is--is somewhat unresolved as of now (some people suspect this).

    If I had to hazard a guess, both 1 and 2 contribute somewhat to this phenomenon.
    Last edited by Ryukendo; 08-13-2022 at 04:02 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    1. Slavs are a bottlenecked and recently expanded population with a strong founder effect (we know this).
    If this is the cause of BS drift in Slavs then what is the cause of (even much stronger) BS drift in Balts, who are supposedly not a recently expanded population?

    Balts show a stronger BS drift than Slavs, it peaks in Balts (and more precisely - in LBA & Iron Age Balts).
    Last edited by Tomenable; 08-13-2022 at 04:00 PM.

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    Yes I know, I edited the original post a few moments after I posted it, go check.
    Quoted from this Forum:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    1a. Balts are also pretty bottlenecked (but its weird because they are in a different bottleneck than Slavs, so why should they be treated the same?).
    Balts are actually more drifted than all Slavs, not less drifted. I'm not sure what do you mean that they are "in a different bottleneck than Slavs"?

    When it comes to bottlenecks - certainly nothing as extreme as the Ashkenazi bottleneck has been detected among either Balts and/or Slavs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    2. Balts and Slavs have some strange sources of WHG ancestry whose place in the WHG/EHG clade--there's more structure there than you think there is--is somewhat unresolved as of now (some people suspect this).
    This is the most likely explanation, in my opinion.
    Last edited by Tomenable; 08-13-2022 at 04:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryukendo View Post
    So Balts and Slavs have this drift, and it is often so prominent in a swathe of Eastern European and Uralic populations
    There are some Uralic populations which have no BS drift at all - west of the Ural this includes the Mari and Udmurts. Among the Komi it exists, but weak. On the other hand, Uralic pops such as the Moksha & Erzya have a lot of it, but this is probably due to assimilation of Slavs and/or Balts and mixing with them.
    Last edited by Tomenable; 08-13-2022 at 04:06 PM.

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    How can we as individuals check to see if we have any of this Balto-Slavic genetic drift in our genomes?

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