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Thread: Question on Y-DNA subclade formation

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post
    ...
    That said am I correct in thinking regarding sublcade formation that (using my own as an example) there was once a first man who was R-Y140964 and all men tested as R-Y140964 or below descend from that one man? If so it seems based on logic and what samples there are so far that the geographic division must be of some significance, namely that R-Y140964 formed in Britain or immediately prior to migration or else shouldn't there be some insular R-Y56952 or other new branches which are siblings to R-Y140964? Essentially I am wondering if the TMRCA might have some relation to the time of migration, if it doesn't then I suppose there could be centuries of R-Y56952 in Britain before R-Y140964 formed, yet as just noted if so why is the division strictly divided between Britain/Ireland and the continent?
    That's clearly a plausible scenario. However the TMRCA of R-Y140964 (on yfull) is 1950 ybp. That's a long time, the number of R-Y140964 men today does not appear to be large. There could have been periods in the past when it was even smaller, maybe only handful of men at various times. People sometimes moved around, a lot. Travel by boat across the channel was commonplace. People moved back and forth. The genetics of much of England and parts of NW Europe are difficult to distinguish. Hence there are endless scenarios consistent with the sparse data we have at present.
    Last edited by pmokeefe; 08-28-2022 at 02:36 PM.
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  3. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by pmokeefe View Post
    That's clearly a plausible scenario. However the TMRCA of R-Y140964 (on yfull) is 1950 ybp. That's a long time, the number of R-Y140964 men today does not appear to be large. There could have been periods in the past when it was even smaller, maybe only handful of men or even just one at various times. People sometimes moved around, a lot. Travel by boat across the channel was commonplace. People moved back and forth. The genetics of much of England and parts of NW Europe are difficult to distinguish. Hence there are endless scenarios consistent with the sparse data we have at present.
    Thanks yea it does seem like a difficult thing to determine based on the available data so far and the manifold variables involved as you noted. For my own case I think my Y-DNA is peculiar enough, both in terms of British distribution (limited to a specific area which happens to have been a fairly remote area historically) and deeper origins (I've concluded an ultimate or early origin zone somewhere around modern Czech Republic) that I think I may be able to eventually come to a reasonable conclusion with more data, hopefully ancient samples, etc.

    On the TMRCA I can't say I know enough to determine which dating range is more accurate but FTDNA has around 550-1050 CE, using McGee's compare tool most British matches are estimated as between 800-1200 CE, and using the SAPP tool a group MRCA was given as 650 to 1050 CE. My feeling is that these estimates are more likely than yfull's here but again not an expert so can't say for certain.
    Paternal Lineage Origin: Northwest England/Cumbria/Scottish Borders
    Paternal Ancestry: 90+% English (mix of North/North Midlands, West Country, and Kent/East Anglia), 10% Dutch with minor Welsh and Scottish.
    Maternal Ancestry: 50% Irish (mix of Donegal, Clare/Galway, and various Leinster), 40% German (Rhineland, Hesse, Upper Franconia), 10% Welsh (Denbighshire.)

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  5. #13
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    Armando and I don’t always agree, but he’s given you very sound advice. First he explained what the mutation is that we use for genealogy. It is a random mutation that likely occurred as a result of some experience that an ancestor had previously allowing that ancestor to adapt. We just happen to use them as placeholder as the mutations accumulate, I have snps in mind. Secondly they are random, but to use them as place holders you have to take something random and average them out to use them for genealogical purposes. 70, 75, 80, or 85 years per snp seems to be the best fit for most P312 clades. Keep in mind that that rate per snp is just a guesstimated average. I personally think whether you descend from a long line of youngest sons versus a long line of oldest sons makes a difference when calculating years per snp. I personally believe that a long line of oldest sons might likely experience a mutation at a quicker rate due to generational years. In other words 4 generations of oldest sons might be equivalent to 2 to 3 generations of youngest sons. But this would only apply within the genealogical timeframe as prior to this you have no idea who your ancestors are in relation to family size. This is where Armando’s second piece of advice comes in. When you take BigY, it’s like fishing with live bait. You cast and wait. My own branch, FGC23196, is dated by YTree and YFull as being formed around 1500BCE. Originally, there were two Dutch, two Swedes, one Dane, and me. I was the only British kit. This went in for 5 years. Then one day a Spanish kit of proven French descent tested and he was in the Continental group with the others, and I was still FGC23196*. Two years later I received a 111 marker match notice and this kit also did BigY. He and I shared a block of at least 20 snps and his last name was of Old English origin. Then slowly several other people tested and expanded the Continental side of FGC23186. Another Dutch kit, German, Alsace. Then two years ago I noticed three new BigY matches that ran parallel to my group and through some sleuthing found them on a Surname project, English family from around Devon. Now it appears that our British cluster, and the Continental group split right after FGC23196. It doesn’t mean the British cluster has been in Britain since shortly after 1500BCE, mind you but using the block tree, FGC23196 sat at the 42 snp place holder, and I used 1500BCE, or 3500 ybp, divided by 42 to get years per snp, then calculate where I split from the other British group, and right now we are at 200BCE to 200CE. As more people test, though, this might change. I think FGC23196 has now been pushed back to close to the 50 snp placeholder. None of this is perfect, but I can assume, that my line has been in Britain since the split with the other British family.

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  7. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post
    Thanks for the reply and information, you are correct that my wider branch could use some more samples and that I should take the Big Y-700, something I hope to do someday. In terms of samples though I know of some which are not listed on Yfull, FTDNA's public tree, Ytree, etc. who are either R-Y56952 or R-Y140964, a total of 8 for the former and 16 for the latter and as noted the former group are all Germans/Czechs and the latter all British, so I imagine there must be some significance to that geographic division.

    That said am I correct in thinking regarding sublcade formation that (using my own as an example) there was once a first man who was R-Y140964 and all men tested as R-Y140964 or below descend from that one man? If so it seems based on logic and what samples there are so far that the geographic division must be of some significance, namely that R-Y140964 formed in Britain or immediately prior to migration or else shouldn't there be some insular R-Y56952 or other new branches which are siblings to R-Y140964? Essentially I am wondering if the TMRCA might have some relation to the time of migration, if it doesn't then I suppose there could be centuries of R-Y56952 in Britain before R-Y140964 formed, yet as just noted if so why is the division strictly divided between Britain/Ireland and the continent?
    I was aware that the FTDNA has testers under R-Y140964 that are not at YFull and had taken that into consideration. So it doesn't really change what I stated. I can elaborate a bit though. Let's first go back further in time. To put things in perspective. The path of your ancestors back to R-L52 then down to R-L2 then down to R-Y56952 is important.

    More than about 5,000 years ago there were no subclades of R-L52 in Western Europe or Central Europe. We still don't have ancient R-L52 specimens older than 3115 BC other than SHT001, I6222 from Early Bronze Age, Afanasievo

    Between about 5,000 years ago and 4,800 years ago subclades of R-L52 started to show up in Central Europe.

    Between about 4800 years ago and 2500 years ago P312 and subclades started to show up in western Europe with I4144/RISE563, I5021 Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany from c. 2542 BC (2572-2512 calBCE) as the oldest specimen so far with enough coverage to verify the P312 results which also happens to be positive for U152.

    Notice how so far all of the specimens are from the continent. There was a sudden population boom of P312, U152, and L2 subclades in this time period all over western Europe and people must have been traveling back and forth a lot.

    I think I14200 from Wiltshire, Amesbury Down dated to 2470-2239 calBCE is the oldest L2 in the United Kingdom. KOP003 from Bohemia is the oldest confirmed L2 specimen dated 2470-2306 BC. is close to the same age. So L2 was born a few centuries before then spread relatively fast considering they didn't seem to ride horseback at the time.

    R-Z49, R-S15208, R-BY3620, and R-BY3614 show to have a lot of descendants in the continent so they were likely born there also.

    R-Y56952 doesn't have a lot of testers at FTDNA or YFull but since there are some testers from the continent a preliminary conclusion is that it was also first appeared in a man from the the continent. The TMRCA for that subclade is 2900 ybp which you can simply subtract from 2022 to get the year it is estimated to have been born. So that is about 828 BC with a caveat that it is an estimate based on an average mutation rate. It is not an absolute mutation rate since the mutation rate is actually random but normally within a certain variance.

    The formed date of R-Y140964 is the same as the TMRCA of R-Y56952 but the TMRCA of R-Y140964 is 1950 ybp so about 72 AD.

    Therefore your ancestor that created the R-Y140964 subclade entered the Isles sometime between 2900-1950 ybp or 828 BC and 72 AD. We have no idea which century he entered the Isles because there are too few testers and therefore we can't make a logical deduction. That is why I said in a previous post that it is possible that R-Y56952 went to the continent about 2900 years ago maybe just 2000 years ago.

    Yes, there was once a first man who was R-Y140964 and all men tested as R-Y140964 or below descend from that one man. That is also why I was able to state that it is possible that R-Y56952 went to the continent about 2900 years ago maybe just 2000 years ago. That R-Y56952 would have had close descendant that was born with R-Y140964.

    What we don't know is if there are people from the continent that are positive for some of the SNPs in the R-Y140964 block. Remember, SNP mutations occur about every 84 years or about every 2 to 3 generations. The R-Y140964 block has a whopping 21 SNP mutations and is a span of about 1000 years give or take a century or two.

    The reason we don't know if there are people from the continent that are positive for some of the SNPs in the R-Y140964 block is because there is a testing imbalance of testers with ancestry from the continent. People with ancestry from the British Isles have more of an interest in DNA testing than those with ancestry from other countries and more disposable money than a lot of people with ancestry from some of the other countries.

    We don't know of the absence of R-Y140964 in testers with ancestry from the continent is due to lack of interest and/or lack of disposable income or because it just doesn't exist in the continent. This is why I stated that there are not enough testers under R-Y56952 to be able to determine anything concrete. That includes the fact that there are not enough ancient specimens with high resolution DNA testing and tight C14 dating. There are a lot of specimens from the Iron Age and Middle Ages but just not enough of them and there might not ever be enough of them.

    If there were centuries of R-Y56952 in Britain then R-Y140964 and some of the phylogenetic equivalents formed in Britain. If R-Y56952 stayed on the continent for centuries before migrating to Britain then R-Y140964 and some of the phylogenetic equivalents formed on the continent. R-Y140964 is just a placeholder though. It could actually be the last SNP formed out of the 21 phylogenetic equivalents.

    If you were to get a Big Y test you might help break up that group of 21 phylogenetic equivalents and maybe R-Y140964 becomes an even younger subclade.

    We know a lot about the older subclades because they are common to more people and are found in ancient specimens. The younger subclades are shared by fewer people and are harder to find in ancient specimens so less is known.

    Your subclade might be peculiar because it possible was in the continent for several centuries before going to the Isles. We just don't know yet.
    Last edited by ArmandoR1b; 08-28-2022 at 11:08 PM.

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  9. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by ArmandoR1b View Post
    I was aware that the FTDNA has testers under R-Y140964 that are not at YFull and had taken that into consideration. So it doesn't really change what I stated. I can elaborate a bit though. Let's first go back further in time. To put things in perspective. The path of your ancestors back to R-L52 then down to R-L2 then down to R-Y56952 is important.

    More than about 5,000 years ago there were no subclades of R-L52 in Western Europe or Central Europe. We still don't have ancient R-L52 specimens older than 3115 BC other than SHT001, I6222 from Early Bronze Age, Afanasievo

    Between about 5,000 years ago and 4,800 years ago subclades of R-L52 started to show up in Central Europe.

    Between about 4800 years ago and 2500 years ago P312 and subclades started to show up in western Europe with I4144/RISE563, I5021 Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany from c. 2542 BC (2572-2512 calBCE) as the oldest specimen so far with enough coverage to verify the P312 results which also happens to be positive for U152.

    Notice how so far all of the specimens are from the continent. There was a sudden population boom of P312, U152, and L2 subclades in this time period all over western Europe and people must have been traveling back and forth a lot.

    I think I14200 from Wiltshire, Amesbury Down dated to 2470-2239 calBCE is the oldest L2 in the United Kingdom. KOP003 from Bohemia is the oldest confirmed L2 specimen dated 2470-2306 BC. is close to the same age. So L2 was born a few centuries before then spread relatively fast considering they didn't seem to ride horseback at the time.

    R-Z49, R-S15208, R-BY3620, and R-BY3614 show to have a lot of descendants in the continent so they were likely born there also.

    R-Y56952 doesn't have a lot of testers at FTDNA or YFull but since there are some testers from the continent a preliminary conclusion is that it was also first appeared in a man from the the continent. The TMRCA for that subclade is 2900 ybp which you can simply subtract from 2022 to get the year it is estimated to have been born. So that is about 828 BC with a caveat that it is an estimate based on an average mutation rate. It is not an absolute mutation rate since the mutation rate is actually random but normally within a certain variance.

    The formed date of R-Y140964 is the same as the TMRCA of R-Y56952 but the TMRCA of R-Y140964 is 1950 ybp so about 72 AD.

    Therefore your ancestor that created the R-Y140964 subclade entered the Isles sometime between 2900-1950 ybp or 828 BC and 72 AD. We have no idea which century he entered the Isles because there are too few testers and therefore we can't make a logical deduction. That is why I said in a previous post that it is possible that R-Y56952 went to the continent about 2900 years ago maybe just 2000 years ago.

    Yes, there was once a first man who was R-Y140964 and all men tested as R-Y140964 or below descend from that one man. That is also why I was able to state that it is possible that R-Y56952 went to the continent about 2900 years ago maybe just 2000 years ago. That R-Y56952 would have had close descendant that was born with R-Y140964.

    What we don't know is if there are people from the continent that are positive for some of the SNPs in the R-Y140964 block. Remember, SNP mutations occur about every 84 years or about every 2 to 3 generations. The R-Y140964 block has a whopping 21 SNP mutations and is a span of about 1000 years give or take a century or two.

    The reason we don't know if there are people from the continent that are positive for some of the SNPs in the R-Y140964 block is because there is a testing imbalance of testers with ancestry from the continent. People with ancestry from the British Isles have more of an interest in DNA testing than those with ancestry from other countries and more disposable money than a lot of people with ancestry from some of the other countries.

    We don't know of the absence of R-Y140964 in testers with ancestry from the continent is due to lack of interest and/or lack of disposable income or because it just doesn't exist in the continent. This is why I stated that there are not enough testers under R-Y56952 to be able to determine anything concrete. That includes the fact that there are not enough ancient specimens with high resolution DNA testing and tight C14 dating. There are a lot of specimens from the Iron Age and Middle Ages but just not enough of them and there might not ever be enough of them.

    If there were centuries of R-Y56952 in Britain then R-Y140964 and some of the phylogenetic equivalents formed in Britain. If R-Y56952 stayed on the continent for centuries before migrating to Britain then R-Y140964 and some of the phylogenetic equivalents formed on the continent. R-Y140964 is just a placeholder though. It could actually be the last SNP formed out of the 21 phylogenetic equivalents.

    If you were to get a Big Y test you might help break up that group of 21 phylogenetic equivalents and maybe R-Y140964 becomes an even younger subclade.

    We know a lot about the older subclades because they are common to more people and are found in ancient specimens. The younger subclades are shared by fewer people and are harder to find in ancient specimens so less is known.

    Your subclade might be peculiar because it possible was in the continent for several centuries before going to the Isles. We just don't know yet.
    The U152 call for the Amesbury Archer was made my the authors of the Patterson Paper. FTDNA and Alex did not support that call so that one might not be correct. In fact it probably isn’t. I think the earliest U152 in Britain was EIA.

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