# Thread: Z49, where did it come from? How did it expand?

1. Taking an educated guess based on hearing other's thoughts and ideas, I would estimate the age for U152>L2 to be about 4500 years before present (ybp)

That would make:
Z49 = ~4420 ybp
Z142 & S8183 = ~4340 ybp

Below that in the Z49 tree, I would subtract 120 years for each SNP in a box. For example Z150/Z12222/22867545 would be 120x3 years younger than Z142 or 3980 ybp.

Using this approach, my current terminal SNP FGC12401/02/03/04/05, would be 2812 ybp or around 800 BC.

Based on what others have calculated/estimated, I think these numbers will be within +/- 750 years of the actual ages of these SNPs.

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Agamemnon (12-18-2014)

3. So if I have 5 known public SNPs below S8183 and 31 private markers 36 x 120 = 4320 ybp, i.e. S8183 should be 4320 years old? This seems to be consistent with your numbers, but STR calclulations show different numbers:2rz55dk.png
If I compare with 309846 (Olsson), I have 31 private SNPs and he has 31 private SNPs as well, it would mean 31 x 120 = 3720 years and not 990 years?

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MitchellSince1893 (12-18-2014),  Pigmon (12-18-2014)

5. Originally Posted by Petr
So if I have 5 known public SNPs below S8183 and 31 private markers 36 x 120 = 4320 ybp, i.e. S8183 should be 4320 years old? This seems to be consistent with your numbers, but STR calclulations show different numbers:2rz55dk.png
That STR result is similar to my closest match 268283 Horatio Sylvanus Roberts.
He comes out 1260 ybp while the SNP method produces 2812 ybp.

Tellingly, James Lincoln and Stephen Brace who share 6 less SNPs with me than Horato Roberts (2 levels/SNP blocks up on the Z49 tree from Roberts and me), are 1260 and 1350 ybp respectively via the STR method. The SNP method dates Lincoln and Brace shared SNPs to 3496 ybp. Thus I would be inclined to trust the SNP method over STR.

While it worked in your case, I would caution against counting one's private SNPs and multiplying by 120 (counting from the present to the past vs counting down from L2 or Z49, or Z142).
I say this because 2 men could be on the same terminal branch and have quite a difference in the number of shared mutations.

While 120 years per SNP works as an average it could be way off for the individual

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Pigmon (12-18-2014)

7. triple post

8. double post

9. Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893
That would make:
Z49 = ~4420 ybp
When my cousin (kit 64890, who is Z49*) gets his novel SNP count from YFull, I will post it. That will provide a Z49 age calculation independent of others.

10. ## The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to lgmayka For This Useful Post:

Agamemnon (12-18-2014),  MitchellSince1893 (12-18-2014),  Pigmon (12-18-2014)

11. According to FTDNA data seen in BigY matches I see the following count of SNPs below Z49:
64890 - Dyrek (?): 28
249822 - Mitchell (Z142->Z150->Y3140 etc.): 52
72367 - Squecco (S8183->S22778->S5490 etc.): 55
240232 - Barry (S8183->Y4356): 30
N55642 - Bruns (S8183->Y4356): 24
309846 - Olsson (S8183->Y4356->Y4353->S12993): 37
195364 - Soucek (S8183->Y4356->Y4353->S12993): 37

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Agamemnon (12-18-2014),  MitchellSince1893 (12-18-2014),  Pigmon (12-18-2014)

13. Originally Posted by Petr
64890 - Dyrek (?): 28
I don't understand where you got this number.

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Pigmon (12-18-2014)

15. Originally Posted by Petr
According to FTDNA data seen in BigY matches I see the following count of SNPs below Z49:
64890 - Dyrek (?): 28
249822 - Mitchell (Z142->Z150->Y3140 etc.): 52
72367 - Squecco (S8183->S22778->S5490 etc.): 55
240232 - Barry (S8183->Y4356): 30
N55642 - Bruns (S8183->Y4356): 24
309846 - Olsson (S8183->Y4356->Y4353->S12993): 37
195364 - Soucek (S8183->Y4356->Y4353->S12993): 37
I don't have much faith in FTDNA's numbers as they say I have 108 novel SNPs. Most of these are found in other haplgroups, have already been identified and thus are not novel to me, or are not considered quality matches by either YFull or FGC analysis.

When FGC analyzed my BigY data they found 31 high quality SNPs below Z49.

When YFull analyzed my BigY data they found 30 high quality SNPS below Z49.

When I looked at both FGC and YFull's high quality lists (the 30 of YFull were not exactly the same as the 31 from FGC), I believe I have a total of 34 high quality SNPs below Z49. Of these 34, 28 were originally novel SNPs. With the latest BigY match, I'm down to 23 novel SNPs.

Based on the above I wouldn't put much emphasis on FTDNA's SNP count. Instead I would look at what FGC and/or Yfull analysis identifies.

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Agamemnon (12-18-2014),  lgmayka (12-18-2014),  Pigmon (12-18-2014),  R.Rocca (12-18-2014)

17. Originally Posted by Petr
64890 - Dyrek (?): 28
The first steps in YFull analysis of #64890 are starting to arrive.

First, it is already clear that coverage is not as high as we hoped. Both Z49 and Z68 had no calls, so YFull had to place him (as "new") at the L2* level even though Sanger sequencing found him Z49+ .

Second, his novel SNPs are a little fewer than expected:

Private SNPs (all): 46
Best qual: 27 (58.70%) [19 (41.30%) - best; 8 (17.39%) - acceptable]
INDELs: 0
Ambiguous qual: 18 (39.13%)
Low qual: 1 (2.17%)

A count of 27 reliable (best- and acceptable-quality) SNPs equates to a TMRCA of only 3800-4000 years.

18. ## The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to lgmayka For This Useful Post:

Agamemnon (12-18-2014),  MitchellSince1893 (12-19-2014),  Pigmon (12-18-2014)

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