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Thread: Higher ANE in L21 populations - is this telling us something about the L21 story

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    Higher ANE in L21 populations - is this telling us something about the L21 story

    Just had a thought -maybe a eureka moment. You know how ANE is pretty variable and can be high or relatively low in different areas that are high in P312? This could tell us something about the paths and story of the various P312 clades.

    L21 is associated predominantly in areas where ANE and WHG is high.

    U152 is concentrated in areas where ANE and WHG is perhaps middling.

    DF27 seems to lie in an area where ANE and WHG is not as high.

    And yet all have a close common ancestor in P312

    None of these areas are likely to have seen ANE until the end of the Neolithic. This is surely telling us something. What strikes me is L21 dominates in areas that have the highest ANE and WHG of the P312 dominated areas. In some ways L21 dominated areas i.e the Celtic fringe of the isles has an autosomal component ratio that is actually more akin to areas where P312 is not anywhere near as dominant i.e. the north European plain. Is this suggestive that L21 has something in its history that has caused it to be more akin to areas where P312 is not so dominant than it is to much of the P312 world. While we could argue that we can explain the similar proportion of WHG and ENF away as just an ancient pan-northern European thing dating back to the Mesolithic-Neolithic mixing, this does not explain away the raised ANE in L21 populations. This raised ANE seems overwhelmingly likely to be a post-Neolithic thing. So based on ANE, L21 rich populations are more like other non-P312 dominated northern European plain populations than they are like other high P312 areas. That then of course raised the question as to whether the similar WHG/ENF proportions across northern Europe are not at least party also post-Neolithic.

    This IMO could be telling us something important. L21 would in this scenario appear to have spent a significant part of its time mixing with north European plain copper age populations that other P312 clades did not do to anything like the same degree. The obvious conclusion is that L21 or its immediate ancestor spent time overlapped with the corded ware culture, probably in the Lower Rhine area.

    NB Please note that WHG and ANE is especially high in the isles in the Celtic fringe areas so later Germanic migration is an impossible explanation for why these areas have these raised counts. If that had been the case the Celtic fringe would have the least.

    This to me kind of suggests that L21 had a history of mixing with north European plain populations that other P312 clades do not share to the same degree.

    I need to have a think through a bit further

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    My feeling is that, as in the isles, L21 has a fringe position on the continent, was probably early dominant opposite Britain but has since been pushed west and diluted n the east hugely giving it a north-west fringe concentration in the isles and on the continent. There is a strong case I think that it was first in the lower Rhine and northern France when you consider its dominance in the isles and the strong beaker links in the isles with the Rhine and north France. Beaker dates in that area seem to commence in the 2500-2400 range fairly late by beaker standards as do those in the isles. The current continental distribution of L21 and other ylines across nothern France and the lower Rhine doesnt make a lot of sense when you consider the total dominance of L21 among the Britons and Irish. It surely has to have been the case that at one period L21 had totally sewn up the most commonly used approaches into the isles which in the beaker period would have been the Lower Rhine and northern France.

    It is not necessary for them to have been dominant widely - just that they dominated the coastal zone and the sea crossings. If L21 didnt totally dominate the coastal zone how on earth did the Britons and Irish become so very L21 dominated? As I noted in a post above, a position close to the non-P312 dominated areas and mixing with different (north European) groups is the only way to explain why ANE is high among the Celtic fringe people of the isles today. This could not have come about if L21 had taken a westerly approach to the isles from Iberia for example. IMO the L21-ANE-autosomal correlations are strongly suggestive of a period of mixing with ANE harbouring north European populations and the Rhine mouth seems a very good candidate for this.

    The only alternative way of explaining this is that somehow ANE got diluted heavier as P312 passed south and south-west from central Europe. However that is the reverse of the implication of the geographical chronology of beaker which moves in the opposite direction.

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    Next thought about L21 and ANE. L21 domnated areas have a proportion of ANE more akin to north European coastal populaton than deep inland central European ones. It does not appear to me that this can be explained by anything other than L21 gaining an autosomal identity close to that of north European plain populations with ones like the Dutch being especially close to people like the Irish and Scots. I cannot really see past the likelihood that L21 populations were autosomally likely to be very similar to corded ware ones in Holland. The exact dynamics of how that happened are not clear to me but in a small group autosomal DNA could be significantly changed in a couple of generations.

    This doesnt address the bigger question of P312 in terms of origin, direction of spread etc. I am more leaning towards the idea that L11 might have originated somewhere like the Carpathians and P312 occurring perhaps half a millenium later close to the Rhine. This and the sort of timeframes would make it impossible to ignore the corded ware culture as an option.

    Recently a study seems to claim that the Iberian beaker burials were basically local offshoots of the Corded Ware tradition. This leads me to wonder if P312 arose at the westernmost end of corded ware culture. If that was the case then this would have major implications. We might have to see DF27 as the expression of a south-western thrust into Iberia from the western edge of the Corded Ware culture around 2700BC. Then we might wonder what the U152 story was. Skipping over that this would have important implications for L21. It would actually suggest that L21 or its immediate ancestor was a relatively stay-home section of P312 which essentially remained in the western edge of corded ware,perhaps the Lower Rhine, and did not move far from there until after the beaker fashion had arrived. This would neatly fit with my observation that L21 dominated populations have levels of ANE that is closer to that of people like the Dutch or Danes than it is to other P312 dominated areas.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Recently a study seems to claim that the Iberian beaker burials were basically local offshoots of the Corded Ware tradition. This leads me to wonder if P312 arose at the westernmost end of corded ware culture. If that was the case then this would have major implications. We might have to see DF27 as the expression of a south-western thrust into Iberia from the western edge of the Corded Ware culture around 2700BC.
    Or, we might not. DF27 may have begun thrusting somewhere, around that time, but I don't think the phylogeny supports that geography and direction -- either from which (the western edge of the Corded Ware culture), or toward which (Iberia). That theory has a lot of baggage; and a bunch of garments have been falling out of the baggage lately with NextGen testing, higher resolution phylogenies, broader sectors of the European population being sampled, more aDNA, etc.

    A few large and small subclades of DF27 that have been successful at breeding sons in Iberia may have moved, or descend from guys who moved, from some Corded Ware enclave to Iberia roughly that long ago. Z216, Z225 and DF83 may be examples. On the other hand, DF27 clades in the Netherlands, Scandinavia, Poland, Ukraine, and even England are starting to look more like their ancestors and uncles, and less like their descendants and nephews. I think we need to hold off a while and let the haplotree-based map fill in, a bit more. Not knowing where the trunk is may lead to a pretty distorted view.

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    Alan, L11 was probably originally north European-like, this is what Bell beaker genomes from Germany suggest. No change was needed for people with mostly L21, to become north European-like. Because most heavy P312 pops are EEF-like today, doesn't mean the people who spread P312 in west Europe were. It's French, Iberians, and Italians who admixed more with locals, not Gealics and Britons.

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    I find it very unlikely that L21-dominated all the way west in Irish were originally Spanish-like, and over years of admixture with people far away in Europe eventually lead to them being about as northern as Norwegians.

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    Alan, Germans, Austrians, and Swiss have a decent amount of French-like and Balkan-like ancestry, which can explain why they are more southern than Irish and Scandinavians. Just like French and Iberians their IE ancestors admixed more with EEF or near eastern-type people.

    There are very obvious trends in ADMIXTURE tests for Europeans.

    In Eurogenes K15: First there are EEF components; west Med and East med, then there are components from recent near eastern admixture; west Asian, east med, red sea, and then there are 4 components which are a mix of EEF, Yamna, and HGs; North sea, Atlantic, Baltic, and east Euro. Those 4 components(excluding Atlantic) in most parts of Europe represent bronze age IE ancestry from east-central Europe(CWC, bell beaker, Unetice).

    Germans simply score higher in EEF and near eastern components than British-Irish, Scandinavians, Polish, Russians, and Balts, because they have less IE ancestry. Irish are the P312 carriers who admixed least with locals.
    Last edited by Krefter; 01-08-2015 at 05:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krefter View Post
    Alan, L11 was probably originally north European-like, this is what Bell beaker genomes from Germany suggest. No change was needed for people with mostly L21, to become north European-like. Because most heavy P312 pops are EEF-like today, doesn't mean the people who spread P312 in west Europe were. It's French, Iberians, and Italians who admixed more with locals, not Gealics and Britons.
    Certainly possible and that is why I raised the possibility that L21 came into on the lower Rhine and really didnt have a very far treck to go to the isles and northern France. I am not particularly convinced of that beaker pot chronology tracks movement of beaker people in a simple one to one way. I got to be honest though, the genetic phylogeny etc do kind of make me think there is something to the slightly out of fashion idea of beaker being linked to corded ware in a complex wy with first a movement of some P312 to Iberia with the rest staying home around the Rhine. Then to complicate matters there may have then been a move of DF27 out of Iberia back towards SE France and the Alps. Of course we also know of things like the eclipse of the SW beaker group by central European beakers at Sion. So its very complex. However I am beginning to wonder if the P312 story is a pile simpler. If P312 was present in west-central Europe and the Rhine around 2700BC or even earlier then this would place it in corded ware. Then what we could have is a scenario where P312 largely stays put in that western part of the corded ware world but one early offshoot heads to Iberia bring what an archaeologist said was essentially a local spin on Corded Ware burial traditions - and its hard also not to think the generalised pottery similarities between the 2 cultures are not linked too. In terms of genetic geography that is simple and IMO works. The ancestors of the L21 and U152 lines in this picture just stay put with one offshoot going to Iberia and creating there what we call the beaker culture. That group then also expanded back towards southern France and the western Alps and influenced its stay-home cousins. It then gets very complex c. 2500BC when there seems to have been interaction,tension and expansion happening between the groups creating a number of beaker variants. However the core of this model is that P312 arose or was present anyway in pre-beaker times in westernmost corded ware and no beaker period migration needs envisaged to bring L21 to the Lower Rhine or U152 to west central Europe because it was already there. This is why I was trying to suggest the autosomal DNA and in particular the undeniably new ANE component does seem to hint that the beaker people who went into the isles and who were an element in the DNA of pre-Roman Britons appear to have come from NW Europe judging by the ANE proportions and indeed the proportion of the big three autosomals which clearly link isles Celts with NW Europeans along the north Sea coast. So, it sees to me that L21 rich areas got their ANE proportions from L21 and that L21 would appear to have been autosomally of a north-west European continental origin or certainly had those genetics before arriving in the isles.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krefter View Post
    I find it very unlikely that L21-dominated all the way west in Irish were originally Spanish-like, and over years of admixture with people far away in Europe eventually lead to them being about as northern as Norwegians.
    That is what I am saying. L21 arrived after the Neolithic and so did ANE. It seems very likely that the carriers of L21 who vastly predominate among the isles Celts were the people who brought the ANE to the isles. If one accepts that then it is tempting to look for areas with similar ANE levels as the likely area where L21 or its immediate ancestor came from. I think this all seems to confirm the likelihood that L21 was indeed located originally in and around the Low Countries - which is hardly a shock when one considers the strong link to the Rhine in early beakers in the isles. It would frankly be bizzare if L21 somehow managed to become very dominant among the isles Celts if L21 had not had a crucial period of total domination of the easiest sea crossings to the isles. All they had to do was dominate the coast and the Rhine mouth in the period c. 2500-2000BC and that would be enough to have set the die on L21's dominance of the isles.

    So, if

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    Just had a thought -maybe a eureka moment. You know how ANE is pretty variable and can be high or relatively low in different areas that are high in P312? This could tell us something about the paths and story of the various P312 clades.

    L21 is associated predominantly in areas where ANE and WHG is high.

    U152 is concentrated in areas where ANE and WHG is perhaps middling.

    DF27 seems to lie in an area where ANE and WHG is not as high.

    And yet all have a close common ancestor in P312

    None of these areas are likely to have seen ANE until the end of the Neolithic. This is surely telling us something. What strikes me is L21 dominates in areas that have the highest ANE and WHG of the P312 dominated areas. In some ways L21 dominated areas i.e the Celtic fringe of the isles has an autosomal component ratio that is actually more akin to areas where P312 is not anywhere near as dominant i.e. the north European plain. Is this suggestive that L21 has something in its history that has caused it to be more akin to areas where P312 is not so dominant than it is to much of the P312 world. While we could argue that we can explain the similar proportion of WHG and ENF away as just an ancient pan-northern European thing dating back to the Mesolithic-Neolithic mixing, this does not explain away the raised ANE in L21 populations. This raised ANE seems overwhelmingly likely to be a post-Neolithic thing. So based on ANE, L21 rich populations are more like other non-P312 dominated northern European plain populations than they are like other high P312 areas. That then of course raised the question as to whether the similar WHG/ENF proportions across northern Europe are not at least party also post-Neolithic.

    This IMO could be telling us something important. L21 would in this scenario appear to have spent a significant part of its time mixing with north European plain copper age populations that other P312 clades did not do to anything like the same degree. The obvious conclusion is that L21 or its immediate ancestor spent time overlapped with the corded ware culture, probably in the Lower Rhine area.

    NB Please note that WHG and ANE is especially high in the isles in the Celtic fringe areas so later Germanic migration is an impossible explanation for why these areas have these raised counts. If that had been the case the Celtic fringe would have the least.

    This to me kind of suggests that L21 had a history of mixing with north European plain populations that other P312 clades do not share to the same degree.

    I need to have a think through a bit further
    Alan, I think the WHG and ANE percentages for Northern France and England are almost identical, so you will not be able to decipher how L21 got into Britain by modern aDNA alone. Also, you have to take into account that Spain has had important conquests via the Mediterranean that Britain has not, so some of the difference we see in Spain may be due to post-Bell Beaker movements. The only thing that will disprove most of these theories are with ancient DNA samples.
    Paternal: R1b-U152 >> L2 >> FGC10543 >> PR5365, Pietro Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Galicia, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain
    Paternal Great (x3) Grandfather: R1b-U106 >> L48 >> CTS2509, Filippo Ensabella, b.~1836, Agira, Sicily, Italy

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