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Thread: Oracle Four Population Approximations - Relationship to Known Ancestry

  1. #1
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    Oracle Four Population Approximations - Relationship to Known Ancestry

    What is your experience for the relationship between your known ancestry and the Four Population Oracle Approximations? My results from the single population estimates in these calculators is very reasonable and accurate. If I were to write some possible expectations based on what I know about my ancestors on paper (I am pretty certain of about 90-95% of mine), the following ones would be my expectation:

    German + German + German + English
    German + German + French + English
    West German + South German + Alsace + Southeast England

    The following are the actual "top" results that I get from each of several of the calculators (the Dodecad K7b produced a five-way tie, so I included all of those):

    MDLP K23B: Basque_Spanish + Gagauz + Russian_Meshtchyora + South_German @ 0.815888
    MDLP World-22: Italian_North + Italian-North + Norwegian_V + Swedish @ 0.819595
    MDLP World: German + Italian_North + Welsh + Provancal @ 0.706944
    MDLP K12: ETN + GBRKN + IBR + NITAL @ 1.654718
    Eurogenes K13: North_Swedish + Southeast_English + Spanish_Valencia + Spanish_Valencia @ 2.683335
    Eurogenes EUTest V2 K15: Orcadian + Sardinian + West_Norwegian + West_Norwegian @ 4.223076
    Eurogenes JTest: English + English + FR + PT @ 2.388730
    Dodecad V3: French_Basque + Greek + Swedish + Swedish @ 1.072249
    Dodecad K12b: Galicia + Norwegian + Norwegian + Tuscan @ 0.690553
    Dodecad K7b: Aragon + British + North_Italian + Russian @ 0.000000
    Dodecad K7b: Aragon + British_Isles + North_Italian + Russian @ 0.000000
    Dodecad K7b: Aragon + Irish + North_Italian + Russian @ 0.000000
    Dodecad K7b: Aragon + North_Italian + Orcadian + Russian @ 0.000000
    Dodecad K7b: Cataluna + Cataluna + Hungarians + Mixed_Slav @ 0.000000
    Dodecad World9: Dutch + Sardinian + Ukranians + Ukranians @ 0.000000
    Harappa World: russian + spaniard + spaniard + utahn-white @ 0.678084

    These are remarkably similar, I think, in the things these are trying to say about my ancestry. However, I would class 54 of the 64 populations as ones from which I have no known ancestry and in many cases are quite some distance from my ancestral locations. I have no Spanish or Russian or Swedish ancestors in any recent way that I know of. My theory is that I have minority African numbers like a Spaniard and minority East Asian numbers like a northern European (presumably from my unknowns), so the four population calculators are trying to account for that. However, if this kind of thing happens for everyone, even with long-term, single region ancestry, then this is not a good theory. I am still new and learning, so any ideas/help is appreciated.
    Last edited by randwulf; 01-24-2015 at 06:04 PM.

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  3. #2
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    Here are my results, what do you think?

    MDLP K23b: Dane + Dutch + Dutch + Dutch @ 1.488237
    MDLP World-22: CEU_V + German-North + Macedonian + Norwegian_V @ 0.581708
    MDLP World: Serbian + Austrian + Sorb + German_V @ 0.812452
    MDLP K12: FRN + FRN + SWD + UKR @ 2.223457
    Eurogenes K13: 1 Irish + Irish + Norwegian + West_German @ 1.566445
    Eurogenes EUTest V2 K15: West_German + West_Norwegian + West_Norwegian + West_Norwegian @ 6.856891
    Eurogenes JTest: English + English + English + NO @ 6.607267
    Dodecad V3: Balkans + British + CEU + Irish @ 0.809894
    Dodecad K12b: Argyll + Argyll + Baleares + Russian @ 0.925971
    Dodecad K7: Argyll + Baleares + Polish + Ukranians
    Dodecad World9: British + British + Hungarians + Hungarians @ 0.000000
    Harappa World: orcadian + orcadian + orcadian + serbian @ 1.154673
    Ancestry - 7/8ths English 1/8th Polish.

    An anaylysis by Davidski
    "You fit into what I call the North Sea cluster, which includes people who live around the North Sea, like those from eastern England and Scotland, the northern Netherlands, northwest Germany, and western Scandinavia."

    "On my system your best population fit is:
    East English, Norwegian, North Dutch
    "57% indigenous European hunter-gatherer and 42% Neolithic farmer"

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  5. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wulf Warrior View Post
    Here are my results, what do you think?
    Interesting, thanks. It does look like most of them are trying to account for the Polish ancestry in your majority English background. Several pick North Sea type locations and repeat whichever location is picked and then mix in something from further East, which seems to match what you list in the standard post. It also seems you got more "direct hits" than I did.

  6. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by randwulf View Post
    Interesting, thanks. It does look like most of them are trying to account for the Polish ancestry in your majority English background. Several pick North Sea type locations and repeat whichever location is picked and then mix in something from further East, which seems to match what you list in the standard post. It also seems you got more "direct hits" than I did.
    It's certainly interesting though, the calculators make me look more Eastern than to what I actually am. My mother however, interestingly enough, is more North-Eastern shifted. Finnish appears on a few of her Oracles.

    I don't think the populations are suppose to be taken entirely literal though, you can use them as co-ordinates? To map out an area for greater accurate results. It's been done on here before.
    Ancestry - 7/8ths English 1/8th Polish.

    An anaylysis by Davidski
    "You fit into what I call the North Sea cluster, which includes people who live around the North Sea, like those from eastern England and Scotland, the northern Netherlands, northwest Germany, and western Scandinavia."

    "On my system your best population fit is:
    East English, Norwegian, North Dutch
    "57% indigenous European hunter-gatherer and 42% Neolithic farmer"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wulf Warrior View Post
    It's certainly interesting though, the calculators make me look more Eastern than to what I actually am. My mother however, interestingly enough, is more North-Eastern shifted. Finnish appears on a few of her Oracles.

    I don't think the populations are suppose to be taken entirely literal though, you can use them as co-ordinates? To map out an area for greater accurate results. It's been done on here before.
    Yes, I see that you are shifted east and I did do the mapping exercise making lines on a paper map with the two population results from several calculators (like the ones from the list above) by hand. That produced an area once the lines connected that neatly outlined my majority ancestry. It produced a triangle from about Birmingham, UK to Berlin to Northern Italy and back to Birmingham, UK. Agreed that I wouldn't expect these to be exactly right. I was just noticing yours were more often in the right regions than mine. I have nothing in Spain, Portugal, Southern France, Italy, Greece but repeatedly get them named in the Oracle 4's sometimes repeated as well as nothing at all in Eastern Europe but I have lots of mentions for them. Maybe my English ancestry accounts for some of the western Scandinavia references after looking at your results. Thanks for the thoughts.

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    Here are my top oracle results using 23andMe data. Some patterns are noticeable. If you want to see a particular result for my FTDNA data let me know.

    MDLP K23b
    Dutch + Dutch + German-Volga + Serb_Serbia @ 2.020710

    MDLP World 22
    Bosnian + CEU + Gagauz + Swedish @ 0.924499

    MDLP World
    Norwegian_V + British + Sorb + Greek_South @ 0.505982

    MDLP K12
    FRN + GBRCORN + RMN + UKR @ 1.810710

    Eurogenes K13
    Bulgarian + Southeast_English + Southeast_English + Swedish @ 2.041975

    Eurogenes K15
    Danish + Serbian + South_Dutch + Southwest_English @ 1.892370

    Jtest
    DK + FR + Scottish + Serbian @ 1.322686

    EUTest
    Cornish + English + English + RO @ 1.505692

    Dodecad K12b
    Bulgarians + Mixed_Germanic + Mixed_Germanic + Mixed_Germanic @ 1.647457

    Dodecad V3
    British + Dutch + Romanians_14 + Slovenian @ 1.370353

    Dodecad K7b
    Ashkenazy_Jews + Lithuanian + Orcadian + Orcadian @ 1.284827

    HarappaWorld
    french + hungarian + orcadian + serbian @ 1.389748
    Ancestry on paper: English, Scottish, Irish, Welsh, Croatian, Ashkenazi, Polish and Māori.

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    Any good analysis or ideas on what the bigger picture is that im getting told by these results is welcome.....

    The following is all based on 23andme data:

    (K23b) French+Frisian+Frisian+Frisian

    (World22) German+German_V+Norwegian_V+Swiss

    (World) Latvian_V+GermanSouth+CEU+Orcadian

    (K12) French+Romanian+Swedish+Swedish

    (EU-Test) Danish+Danish+Danish+French Basque

    (K15) French Basque+West Scottish+West Scottish+West Scottish

    (V3) Balkans+Cornish+Kent+Kent

    (World9) Dutch+Lithuanian+Argyll+Balaerics

    (Harrapa) French+North European+ Utahn White+Utahn White

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  14. #8
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    I would expect English- English-Scottish-Irish
    English-English-English -Scottish
    English- English -English -Irish

    Based on my known paper trail .


    Here are my top results.


    MDLP 22: 1 Bulgarian + Norwegian_V + Swedish + Swedish_V @ 1.102

    MDLP world: 1 Latvian_V + Polish + French + Orcadian @ 1.027

    MDLP K12: 1 ETN + GBRKN + GBRKN + PRT @ 2.746

    MDLP K23 B: 1 Dutch + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR + South_German @ 1.813411


    Eurogenes K15: 1 Irish + Irish + Irish + Irish @ 2.428


    Eurogenes K13: 1 West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.163

    Eurogenes EU: 1 English + Scottish + Scottish + Scottish @ 1.666


    Eurogenes J test: 1 English + Scottish + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.169


    Dodecad 7B: 1 CEU30 + French + French + Lithuanians @ 0.576

    Dodecad 12B: 1 Argyll + British_Isles + German + Mixed_Germanic @ 1.248

    Dodecad V3: 1 CEU + CEU + Orkney + Orkney @ 1.775


    Dodecad World 9: 1 French + Orcadian + Cornwall + Ukranians @ 1.040987

    Harrapa: 1 n-european + orcadian + utahn-white + utahn-white @ 1.246

    European but all over the place?
    Last edited by firemonkey; 04-20-2015 at 07:47 AM.

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  16. #9
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    Your Eu test looks well for your expected 4 oracle, but these are only first in the list, i think the first 5 could be highly viable from what i have read from some of the creators of these admixture systems. I have an Irish Grandparent whose family are completely Irish as far as know but i don't seem to ever get Irish in my top 4 oracle result. Either this is because better results are in 3 way split or simply that i inherited less DNA from the Irish side.

    My EuTest and my K23b are pretty similar concidering the Ethnic groups involved and is in essence telling me the same thing.

    (K23b) French+Frisian+Frisian+Frisian vs (EU-Test) Danish+Danish+Danish+French Basque

    Frisians inhabit and area of there old kingdom that covers an area from North Holland, through Germany South Jutlandic Denmark. So Danish DNA from the Jutlandic area is possible similar and partially mixed. The French that keeps coming is interesting as i only suspect a French Great Grandfather but can not confirm the trail as my Grandfather has no Father on the both certificate but however has a French middle name.

    Also English Kent GBR i would twin with Frisian and Jutlandic DNA, as it was these two groups that were part of the Jutish Kingdom of Kent, which was a separate area to that of Angles and Saxons for some time before being dissolved under the Anglo-Saxon banner. I have a specific ancestry into Kent that i can trace so far 1600s and with a surname that also only existed in Kent. Kent shows up many times in various Admixtures from 1 to 4 oracle designations.

    I think these two oracles are better for people with no ancestry from anywhere other than Europe. Jtest, k13, and few others put in odd results as there built for people with parts of ancestry that are from outside Europe aswell

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  18. #10
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    My first 5:

    MDLP world 22: 1 Bulgarian + Norwegian_V + Swedish + Swedish_V @ 1.102
    2 Gagauz + Norwegian_V + Swedish_V + Swedish_V @ 1.265
    3 Bulgarian + Norwegian_V + Swedish_V + Swedish_V @ 1.286
    4 Macedonian + Norwegian_V + Swedish + Swedish_V @ 1.308
    5 Gagauz + Norwegian_V + Swedish + Swedish_V @ 1.336


    MDP world: 1 Latvian_V + Polish + French + Orcadian @ 1.027
    2 Bosnian + Polish + Croatian + Orcadian @ 1.051
    3 Polish + Croatian + Croatian + Orcadian @ 1.061
    4 Slovenian + Croatian + Orcadian + Ukrainian-Center @ 1.065
    5 Macedonian + Lithuanian + Orcadian + German_V @ 1.092


    MDLP K12: 1 ETN + GBRKN + GBRKN + PRT @ 2.746
    2 ETN + FRN + FRN + GBRCORN @ 2.883
    3 CRS + ETN + GBRARG + GBRCORN @ 2.915
    4 CRS + ETN + GBRARG + GBRKN @ 3.029
    5 ETN + GBRCORN + GBRKN + PRT @ 3.043


    MDLP K23B:

    1 Dutch + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR + South_German @ 1.813411
    2 German-Volga + North_German + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR @ 1.858991
    3 Dutch + Irish + North_European + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR @ 1.876884
    4 Austrian + Irish + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR @ 1.878570
    5 German-Volga + Irish + Norwegian_East + Scottish_Argyll_Bute_GBR @ 1.889582


    Eurogenes K15:

    1 Irish + Irish + Irish + Irish @ 2.428
    2 Irish + Irish + Irish + West_Scottish @ 2.448
    3 Irish + Irish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.528
    4 Irish + Irish + Southwest_English + West_Scottish @ 2.625
    5 Irish + Irish + Irish + Southwest_English @ 2.626


    Eurogenes K13:


    1 West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.163
    2 North_Dutch + West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.250
    3 Orcadian + West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.261
    4 Irish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.276
    5 Norwegian + Southwest_English + West_Scottish + West_Scottish @ 2.276


    Eurogenes J test:

    1 English + Scottish + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.169
    2 English + Orcadian + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.279
    3 English + IE + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.309
    4 Orcadian + Orcadian + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.552
    5 English + IE + Orcadian + Scottish @ 2.565


    Eurogenes EU:

    1 English + Scottish + Scottish + Scottish @ 1.666
    2 English + Orcadian + Scottish + Scottish @ 1.759
    3 English + IE + Scottish + Scottish @ 1.775
    4 Cornish + English + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.002
    5 English + English + Scottish + Scottish @ 2.006


    Dodecad 7B:

    1 CEU30 + French + French + Lithuanians @ 0.576
    2 French + French + Kent + Lithuanians @ 0.608
    3 English + English + German + Mixed_Germanic @ 0.618
    4 English + French + French + Lithuanians @ 0.636
    5 Dutch + French + French + Lithuanians @ 0.640


    Dodecad 12B:

    1 Argyll + British_Isles + German + Mixed_Germanic @ 1.248
    2 English + German + Mixed_Germanic + Orcadian @ 1.255
    3 CEU30 + German + Mixed_Germanic + Orcadian @ 1.257
    4 CEU30 + German + Irish + Mixed_Germanic @ 1.264
    5 English + German + Irish + Mixed_Germanic @ 1.266


    Dodecad V3:

    1 CEU + CEU + Orkney + Orkney @ 1.775
    2 CEU + CEU + Orcadian + Orkney @ 1.789
    3 CEU + German + Orcadian + Orkney @ 1.789
    4 CEU + CEU + Orkney + Argyll @ 1.790
    5 CEU + German + Orcadian + Orcadian @ 1.791


    Dodecad World 9:

    1 French + Orcadian + Cornwall + Ukranians @ 1.040987
    2 Lithuanian + North_Italian + Orcadian + Orcadian @ 1.051922
    3 French + Orcadian + CEU30 + Ukranians @ 1.057435
    4 Lithuanian + North_Italian + Orcadian + Orkney @ 1.059977
    5 British_Isles + CEU30 + Hungarians + Cornwall @ 1.061666


    Harappa:

    1 n-european + orcadian + utahn-white + utahn-white @ 1.246
    2 british + n-european + n-european + orcadian @ 1.268
    3 hungarian + orcadian + orcadian + orcadian @ 1.296
    4 n-european + n-european + orcadian + utahn-white @ 1.334
    5 n-european + orcadian + utahn-white + utahn-white @ 1.361

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