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Thread: Too many kits sitting at predicted M269!

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    Too many kits sitting at predicted M269!

    IMHO, looking around the various FTDNA surname and geographic projects, there are far too many sitting in limbo with the haplogroup status of 'predicted R-M269'. *

    If we could nudge these kits just down to U106 or P312 for starters then we might begin to get some interesting new candidates for deeper SNP testing, not to mention STR clustering. (Of course, some M269 predictions will turn out to be incorrect, and some may not yet be able to be resolved below M269 to a major branch, but I guess one would expect those cases to be in the minority.)

    Once their major subclade of R1b is known, they can be directed to the big projects where the 'cutting edge' analysis of SNPs and associated haplotree layering is being done, and where they can expect to receive good guidance as to testing strategy going forward.

    I truly wish there were more ongoing inter-group discussion among the various FTDNA Group Administrators to find ways to move issues such as this one along, preferably with the active assistance of FTDNA, but nonetheless arriving at a determination to let their members know that they can, if they wish, do a lot better than sitting at 'predicted R-M269' forever, and actively encouraging them to move forward along the big R1b branch.

    [* There are some predicted M269 kits hanging around in the major haplogroup projects, too, but at least we know how to contact those kit owners.]
    Last edited by GTC; 04-16-2015 at 09:41 AM.

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    I think we will pretty much always have this situation because so many men test on a lark, just for a kind of general knowledge of their y-dna, and don't care to invest any additional money or any additional effort at learning what they need to learn to understand their results. I have a buddy I talked into ordering the basic 12-marker y-dna test from FTDNA a few years ago, and that's his situation. He is predicted as M269, but he doesn't really care to go any further with it. I have even offered to pay for an L21 test for him because I think he is probably L21 (but he could be anything under M269), but he won't even take advantage of that.

    Heck, we even have deadheads with 67 markers.

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    I've wondered why they dont use the allele values of DYS390, DYS576, CDYa to try to predict the Y-37s testees status for P312 & U106. I know CDYa is the more variable of the three, but they could try. If the variance is too great from the individual modal values then just don't tell the user the prediction.
    dp :-)
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Powell View Post
    I've wondered why they dont use the allele values of DYS390, DYS576, CDYa to try to predict the Y-37s testees status for P312 & U106. I know CDYa is the more variable of the three, but they could try. If the variance is too great from the individual modal values then just don't tell the user the prediction.
    dp :-)
    U106-P312.png
    http://www.isogg.org/wiki/Haplogroup_R1b_%28Y-DNA%29

    Because significant percentages of U106 have P312 modal values and vice versa I'm not sure how useful it would be.

    For example almost 1/3rd of U106 folks have P312 modal value at DYS390; and almost a quarter of P312 has U106's modal value at DYS576.

    However DYS 492 in panel 38-67 does hold promise in differentiating P312 from U106
    Over 95% of P312 = 12, and 96% of U106 = 13.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 04-16-2015 at 09:57 PM.
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    I think a lot of guys are tested to see if they match other families of their surname. Thats why I tested my male relatives. They are not interested in the haplogroup and most dont understand the downstream SNPs at all.
    As most of my relatives have no same surname matches I went down the Haplogroup SNP testing road and have had them all tested to 111 markers and half tested on Big Y.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GTC View Post
    IMHO, looking around the various FTDNA surname and geographic projects, there are far too many sitting in limbo with the haplogroup status of 'predicted R-M269'. *

    If we could nudge these kits just down to U106 or P312 for starters then we might begin to get some interesting new candidates for deeper SNP testing, not to mention STR clustering. (Of course, some M269 predictions will turn out to be incorrect, and some may not yet be able to be resolved below M269 to a major branch, but I guess one would expect those cases to be in the minority.)

    Once their major subclade of R1b is known, they can be directed to the big projects where the 'cutting edge' analysis of SNPs and associated haplotree layering is being done, and where they can expect to receive good guidance as to testing strategy going forward.

    I truly wish there were more ongoing inter-group discussion among the various FTDNA Group Administrators to find ways to move issues such as this one along, preferably with the active assistance of FTDNA, but nonetheless arriving at a determination to let their members know that they can, if they wish, do a lot better than sitting at 'predicted R-M269' forever, and actively encouraging them to move forward along the big R1b branch.

    [* There are some predicted M269 kits hanging around in the major haplogroup projects, too, but at least we know how to contact those kit owners.]
    The M269 category recently grew significantly in number when FTDNA realized that many of their predicted R1b subclades were inaccurate, and rolled many people back all the way to M269. This may have been a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. However the current situation may be better than the previous one, as many people didn't realize the difference between FTDNA's predictions and confirmation by actual SNP testing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rms2 View Post
    I think we will pretty much always have this situation because so many men test on a lark, just for a kind of general knowledge of their y-dna, and don't care to invest any additional money or any additional effort at learning what they need to learn to understand their results. I have a buddy I talked into ordering the basic 12-marker y-dna test from FTDNA a few years ago, and that's his situation. He is predicted as M269, but he doesn't really care to go any further with it. I have even offered to pay for an L21 test for him because I think he is probably L21 (but he could be anything under M269), but he won't even take advantage of that.
    Point taken, but given how many there are in predicted M269 limbo across the projects, if only 25% of them could be persuaded to move it would be a bonanza.

    It's the formation of a joint campaign by Group Admins to reach out to all of these limbo men that I'm keen to see.

    Heck, we even have deadheads with 67 markers.
    In some projects, 67 would be considered extraordinary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rivergirl View Post
    I think a lot of guys are tested to see if they match other families of their surname. Thats why I tested my male relatives. They are not interested in the haplogroup and most dont understand the downstream SNPs at all.
    As most of my relatives have no same surname matches I went down the Haplogroup SNP testing road and have had them all tested to 111 markers and half tested on Big Y.
    Yes, but without there being some ongoing education-cum-selling by Admins in the major projects (with their thousands of members) directed specifically at "limbo men", the situation will never improve. We can't rely on FTDNA alone to do that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldenHind View Post
    The M269 category recently grew significantly in number when FTDNA realized that many of their predicted R1b subclades were inaccurate, and rolled many people back all the way to M269. This may have been a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. However the current situation may be better than the previous one, as many people didn't realize the difference between FTDNA's predictions and confirmation by actual SNP testing.
    Indeed. I'm glad that FTDNA abandoned that attempt as it only caused confusion, and in some cases outright ridicule. SNP testing is the way to go. The challenge is to get the kit owners to move on it.

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