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Thread: L513 Against World History

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    L513 Against World History

    I posted this originally on the Yahoo L513 Forum but I have updated it so I'm posting it here as well if anyone finds it useful: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...20HistoMap.pdf

    There is a nice timeline of the last 4000 years of world history available online from the David Rumsey collection, originally published in 1931 but it's held up pretty well. Since that corresponds nicely to the L513 timeline I've overlaid it with the major SNP TMRCAs, and since much of our focus is on British Isles history I've also added a focus column for that, dovetailing back into the main timeline where it picks up in the original.

    The recent change is that I used Mike W's SNP Depth Chart to calculate approximate TMRCA ages for about 20 of the major SNPs under L513 and I have plotted them on the timeline.

    This is intended for reference mostly for people wanting a quick check on what was going on around the world at various times and please remember the MRCA ages are by definition highly speculative... in other words this is mostly in fun and there is no forthcoming paper that will defend these estimates . The colored bands against the SNPs are intended to represent the uncertainties still inherent in these calculations.

    That said, I am happy to update the chart if you have a favorite SNP that you feel I have seriously miscalculated.

    I should also note by way of attribution that I took a couple of Jean M's statements here on Anthrogenica regarding British Isles history and updated the British Isles focus column.

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    Thanks a lot for this Dave. For a visual learner like myself, it sure makes it nice to see those parallels!

    The first lesson I learned is how much older 5668 is than 6365...if this is the case, and I'm not doubting you, I wonder if this kinda links up with another document you produced - the countries of origin of current L513 testees, where you observed that, generally speaking, 5668 folks tended to trace back to Scotland/Ireland, whereas 6365 folks were more widespread. If that remains the case, there's an interesting pattern where the 'older' L513 branch tends to consist of people - wherever they came from and whoever they were - who generally winded up in Scotland and Ireland. Does that make sense?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jon View Post
    Thanks a lot for this Dave. For a visual learner like myself, it sure makes it nice to see those parallels!

    The first lesson I learned is how much older 5668 is than 6365...if this is the case, and I'm not doubting you, I wonder if this kinda links up with another document you produced - the countries of origin of current L513 testees, where you observed that, generally speaking, 5668 folks tended to trace back to Scotland/Ireland, whereas 6365 folks were more widespread. If that remains the case, there's an interesting pattern where the 'older' L513 branch tends to consist of people - wherever they came from and whoever they were - who generally winded up in Scotland and Ireland. Does that make sense?
    I think your observation is valid but remember these ages are TMRCA estimates for the current tested groups, not when the SNPs were formed. My TMRCA estimates generally agree with YFull's TMRCAs (although theirs are on the older side of mine) but they think S5668 and S6365 were actually formed about the same time (3800 ybp right after L513 itself). I don't have the benefit of data about when SNPs were actually formed.

    The S5668 branch looks like it has an older TMRCA because it has more diverse sub-branches than the S6365 side. IF S6365 truly is more widespread maybe this is just testing bias and we haven't uncovered as much of S6365 yet. Or maybe more of the older S6365 subbranches died off compared to S5668. I agree with you that the two branches look very different but I don't think there is an obvious explanation yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave-V View Post
    I think your observation is valid but remember these ages are TMRCA estimates for the current tested groups, not when the SNPs were formed. My TMRCA estimates generally agree with YFull's TMRCAs (although theirs are on the older side of mine) but they think S5668 and S6365 were actually formed about the same time (3800 ybp right after L513 itself). I don't have the benefit of data about when SNPs were actually formed.

    The S5668 branch looks like it has an older TMRCA because it has more diverse sub-branches than the S6365 side. IF S6365 truly is more widespread maybe this is just testing bias and we haven't uncovered as much of S6365 yet. Or maybe more of the older S6365 subbranches died off compared to S5668. I agree with you that the two branches look very different but I don't think there is an obvious explanation yet.
    I agree with Dave V that the estimated "formed" date is not that helpful, unless it is only to give a maximum age. The Time to Most Recent Ancestor for the subclade is the youngest for the phylogenetic equivalent block of SNPs that mark a subclade. We can't know which SNP is first (oldest) or last (youngest) in the block.

    From that perspective and looking SNP counting, at least according to Alex's Big Tree, http://ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=10 , S5668 has two phylogenetic equivalents while S6365 has none. The implication is that the TMRCA of S6365 is 100 or years older than S5668, not the other way around.

    When looking at age, the important thing is not total diversity, but diversity of the early branching.
    Last edited by TigerMW; 05-04-2015 at 10:31 PM.

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    As far as I can tell, YFull's "formed" dates look like they are just the TMRCA estimate for the node above. The formed date is always the same as the TMRCA date of its father. In other words, they are only the upper limit of the formed date, as you suggest. So yeah, there's no information contained in them, and they're pretty useless.

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    Would a non-PDF copy be available that would allow it to be edited for other haplogroup lists of SNPs? Right now I am thinking about replacing the L513 mentions with some specific branches under U106.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cofgene View Post
    Would a non-PDF copy be available that would allow it to be edited for other haplogroup lists of SNPs?
    The original was made using the GIMP; if you're familiar with Photoshop-style image editing the XCF file is here: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...2B%20years.xcf.

    Alternatively if your list of SNPs isn't overwhelming send them to me here or via PM with their TMRCAs (or whatever ages) and I can make you a U106 version.

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    I downloaded GIMP portable and went to work on it. Since each label was a layer it wasn't bad to get the hang of things to hack up a version for my R-Z326 null region. With the major U106 branching points being older than 4000 BC I had to start at Z9 on the path down to Z326.

    Thanks for making the xcf available!

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