The origin of the Slavs

[bce]

Actually, that's a better fit! Because the Mako and Encrusted Pottery group being an outlier in the region, while surely representing something strong and well-established in or around the Carpathian basin for a time.
But if you look at the PCA, you can see that there was a decrease of this WHG ancestry when the Tumulus culture groups attacked and pushed the Pannonians to the East. They then fused and mixed with Epi-Corded and more Neolithic shifted elements, especially at the Upper Tisza, but its possible, considering the close relationship, that this was not the end to the North, but the areas of Komarov and later Lusatians got affected too.
So we get a mix of very Neolithic (Bulgarian-like), Epi-Corded (well, CW-like) and this Mako-like elements in North Eastern Pannonia/Carpathians.

You see the decrease from Mako - Encrusted Pottery - Pre-Gáva/Halva - Gáva - Mezocsat/Prescythian/Thraco-Cimmerian, that's a constant decrease of this WHG rich element in the mix, but it doesn't disappear. Especially the Kyjatice sample BR2, the brother group of Gáva is interesting, because it looks like having gotten more of the Füzesabony/Epi-Corded influence, which would be just logical, because its to the West of Gáva and its predecessor, Piliny, being influenced by Füzesabony.

Compare again, its amazing how you can see this decrease of WHG, and at the same time that the two Füzesabony (late Otomani with strong Epi-Corded input) samples are "ultra-Slavic" on such a PCA:

https://ibb.co/jzZs1Hs

Pre-Gáva/Halva is halfway between Füzesabony-Mako-more Neolithic Pannonians. So really that mix which emerged in the North East after the Tumulus culture push. Most of Channelled Ware/Gáva proper has already a much decreased Epi-Corded contribution and being more between Mako and more regular Pannonians, mixing with an "Illyrian-like" and more Neolithic elements depending on region.

Also note, that Mako is not extraordinary in Pannonia, the very important Encrusted Pottery (HRV_Jag_MBA) group got it too and they are not just outliers, but the regulars of this ethnicity, even though this is from their Southern refuge, when they evacuated to Northern Croatia under Tumulus culture attacks pressure! So they moved South, but were originally somewhat more Northern before. We can also see that some of them began to mix with the locals and these mixed individuals being more Neolithic shifted in comparison. But the whole core plots around Mako.

In this way, a stronger influence from this direction, not just Mako-like, but combined with fairly South Eastern Neolithic/Copper Age/EBA elements (more BGR-like!), like its more typical for Pannonia than more Northern or Western regions, would make perfect sense.

Since you said, that, it actually strengthens the hypothesis, that this element came, in a mix, from in or close to Pannonia to the Baltoslavs and the Slavs got just more of it, probably also in later times from Daco-Thracians/the Carpathian zone through persistent gene flow. Or the Balts got less of it because they are more local, instead of the Slavs having that much more admixture.

Tollense too is unlikely to be a pure representative, but they surely mixed on the way. My impression from the Balkan archaeological situation is that these Eastern Urnfielders picked up locals en masse, but primarily females.

As for the uniparentals, we don't have that much if anything from the Eastern groups. Like Komarov is really interesting, as is the Lusatian Eastern fringe. I don't think they have to be the same. Look at Kyjatice and Gáva, they were like brothers and so close culturally, that its oftentimes not possible to differentiate their artefacts within the Channelled Ware sphere. Yet they might differ both autosomally and in uniparentals in a quite signficant way.

The only strange thing is that the most extreme individual in this WHG-shifted direction is the Mezocsat outlier, at a time even among the descendants of Gáva (I think this is what these other Mezocsat samples are about) the WHG ancestry did largely decrease to almost modern levels. That's peculiar and needs an explanation.

I think Jagodnjak and Mokrin were the core area of the WHG-rich Pannonians, if they were really pushed here from the north, they were just being pushed back to where they came from.

However in this area they mixed heavily with their southern neighbours and with time became Illyrian/Thracian like. They also settled western Hungary at one point, but trough heavy mixing with the Alpine populations they transformed into Hungarian Hallstatt/LaTene.

In eastern Hungary their ancestry managed to survive the longest, in the form of Hun_lba, Fuzesabony, and later Vekerzug.

[Riverman]

I think Jagodnjak and Mokrin were the core area of the WHG-rich Pannonians, if they were really pushed here from the north, they were just being pushed back to where they came from.

However in this area they mixed heavily with their southern neighbours and with time became Illyrian/Thracian like. They also settled western Hungary at one point, but trough heavy mixing with the Alpine populations they transformed into Hungarian Hallstatt/LaTene.

In eastern Hungary their ancestry managed to survive the longest, in the form of Hun_lba, Fuzesabony, and later Vekerzug.

Its really clear that they were pushed South East in the MBA, that's without doubt. They were actually pushed by Tumulus Culture groups primarily, but also by Gáva later, basically two times, from two directions. They managed to escape or fuse, especially with Gáva and even migrated into Bulgaria. They had an influence on the formation of Psenichevo-Basarabi itself, which is why they could have been E-V13 candidates, but it doesn't look like that, because a) the current samples don't yield any, but they should, because we need a group dominated by E-V13 and b) the Channelled Ware people/Gáva were the dominant force in the fusion.

It is easy to see how they were pushed South, because the Middle Danubian TC largely eliminated all the preceding Pannonian cultures or pushed them, Füzesabony transitioned-fused with locals into Piliny, while most others really got annihilated on the long run. Encrusted Pottery people just moved South/South East, to escape. This was their original position:



https://ibb.co/9sC0ns4

The timing fits the admixture estimate which was presented before:

Transdanubian Encrusted Pottery Culture, c. 2200/2000–1500/1400 BC [11–16].

https://doi.org/10.3390/min11040436

The samples we got now are from their Southern fringe, which is why Southern mixed people were among them. But remember, they moved on, later, along the Danube, even into Bulgaria and contributed to Psenichevo-Basarabi, at least culturally, probably more female mediated.

It becomes immediately clear from the map why Füzesabony could be so "utra-Slavic", because they were a mix of such Pannonians with Epi-Corded people from the West and North to North East. Remember Trzciniec/Komarov also, which might be similar and the ultimate origin of Baltoslavs.

We don't know yet how exactly Otomani was formed, but its possible that there was indeed some up-migration to the North involved in the EBA-MBA. This is also why a North and back South migration is possible for the E-V13 main clades also. But I don't think its the main factor, but this can be debated. In any case in the MBA, the Encrusted Pottery were among the major carriers for that kind of ancestry profile and they were living from North to South in Central-Western Pannonia originally, being pushed-fused-migrated South East later.

[leonardo]

Its really clear that they were pushed South East in the MBA, that's without doubt. They were actually pushed by Tumulus Culture groups primarily, but also by Gáva later, basically two times, from two directions. They managed to escape or fuse, especially with Gáva and even migrated into Bulgaria. They had an influence on the formation of Psenichevo-Basarabi itself, which is why they could have been E-V13 candidates, but it doesn't look like that, because a) the current samples don't yield any, but they should, because we need a group dominated by E-V13 and b) the Channelled Ware people/Gáva were dominant force in the fusion.

It is easy to see how they were pushed South, because the Middle Danubian TC largely eliminated all the preceding Pannonian cultures or pushed them, Füzesabony transitioned-fused with locals into Piliny, while most others really got annihilated on the long run. Encrusted Pottery people just moved South/South East, to escape. This was their original position:



https://ibb.co/9sC0ns4

The timing fits the admixture estimate which was presented before:



https://doi.org/10.3390/min11040436

The samples we got now are from their Southern fringe, which is why Southern mixed people were among them. But remember, they moved on, later, along the Danube, even into Bulgaria and contributed to Psenichevo-Basarabi, at least culturally, probably more female mediated.

It becomes immediately clear from the map why Füzesabony could be so "utral-Slavic", because they were a mix of such Pannonians with Epi-Corded people from the West and North to North East. Remember Trzciniec/Komarov also.

We don't know yet how exactly Otomani was formed, but its possible that there was indeed some up-migration to the North involved in the EBA-MBA. This is also why a North and back South migration is possible for the E-V13 main clades also. But I don't think its the main factor, but this can be debated. In any case in the MBA, the Encrusted Pottery were among the major carriers for that kind of ancestry profile and they were living from North to South in Central Pannonia originally, being pushed-fused-migrated South East later.

Would the Epi-Corded people likely be males who were roaming and doing the things bands of young warrior men do?

[Riverman]

Would the Epi-Corded people likely be males who were roaming and doing the things bands of young warrior men do?

Well, looks like that. But it was more peacefully and cooperative than usual possibly, because the Füzesabony being clearly closer to general Otomani and their neighbours culturally, than to other people. And generally speaking, these was one big network of Pannonian groups, influencing even the North Carpathian zone also, with many movements going forth and back. So even if this was kind of a conquest, and it partially looks like it, was more than just raids and plunder leading I'd say, but this is debatable.

The contrast is quite clear to the Middle Danubian Tumulus culture, which was really intrusive and you see masses of people trying to flee from them. That looks probably more brutal and direct than what happened otherwise at that time. It's my current best theory that J-L283 together with a minority of R1b lineages and Southern Bell Beaker genetic input from the Alpine-Upper Danubian area spread with the TC. This is in my opinion the ancestral group for Illyrians.
If you check the later samples, this WHG rich Pannonian element did survive much worse West of the Danube than East of it. So the Daco-Thracians/Channelled Ware seems to have had more of it from the start and kept it alive to some degree, while the Middle Danubians largely pushed and annihilated it.

[Riverman]

There are plenty of other samples, from the beginning of the Encrusted Pottery complex, available, like:

On the outskirts of Bonyhád (Co. Tolna, Southern
Transdanubia), 184 graves of the Encrusted Pottery culture
have been recovered14. At present, this is the largest known
cemetery of this culture, with people buried from the end
of the Hungarian Early Bronze Age (EBA) to the beginning
of the Hungarian Late Bronze Age (LBA) (2200–1400 BC).

It was continuously used, first as an inhumation cemetery
and later as a cremation cemetery (Figure 2). Thus, the
site provides a unique opportunity for the interpretation
of changes in burial customs and vessel types over time.

You can once more note, that it ended with the invasion of the Tumulus Culture people. The date of the start of the culture fits well into the scheme for the admixture of the WHG-element with increased steppe. Different opinions about their origins:

These widely used Early Bronze
Age patterns imitating cord decoration were often filled
with inlays in later periods, and their origins have been
assumed – by some earlier Hungarian researchers – to
be in the Burgenland (Austria). In Austria, such finds are
referred to as Litzenkeramik, and are considered to be distinct
from classic Corded Ware26.

According to the latest archaeological observations,
the origins of the Encrusted Pottery culture can
be directly related to the Corded Ware culture that had
eastern origins28.

In any case it was a fused culture with Corded Ware and locals being the possilbe main contributors in Pannonia:

In its early phase, it was a very
coherent culture with great potential for expansion. In
about 2400 BC, the culture split into local groups, one
of which was the Litzenkeramik cultural group with its
local variants30. It was around this time that a subgroup
developed, the archaeological legacy of which should
be seen as an antecedent of the cord-wrapped stick-decorated
pottery31. Research has shown that the Encrusted
Pottery culture and the Litzenkeramik existed simultaneously
in the area believed to be that of the Encrusted
Pottery culture. This can be demonstrated by the wider
occurrence of more recent Litzenkeramik finds, which
turn up south of the river Dráva and in Transdanubia too,
implying close and long-lasting relations32. Finds from the
latest excavations at Bonyhád show that the people who
settled in Transdanubia around the beginning of the third
period of the Hungarian Early Bronze Age started applying
inlays to patterns previously left unfilled, perhaps under
the influence of local traditions. This would later become
a characteristic feature of their pottery production.

The end came with the Tumulus Culture in Pannonia, but like I said, many of them migrated to the South East:

The finely decorated jugs with their tall, elongated
necks and with wide strips of deep inlays are quite different
from previous examples. The strap handle, starting
from the elongated neck and ending on the jug’s shoulder,
does not occur after the early period. Its reoccurrence
in northern Transdanubia is associated with a northern
group of people who were forced to settle in this region
because the Tumulus Grave culture took over their home
in northern Transdanubia. This so-called Koszider period
marks the end of the Middle Bronze Age, and is represented
in the final, fifth phase of the Bonyhád cemetery
(Bonyhád V) (Figure 2).

Archaeological and anthropological results have demonstrated
that despite changing funeral rites, the graves at
Bonyhád represent a cemetery used by a community for
more than five hundred years, from the end of the Early
Bronze Age to the end of the Middle Bronze Age.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...ery_decoration

The end came with the TC invasion, which led to a migration period for the whole of Eastern Central and South Eastern Europe, but not as big as the one which came with Urnfield/Gáva. The principle movements of the fleeing tribes was either to the North East, in the direction of the Upper Tisza and beyond, towards the North Eastern Carpathians, like Füzesabony, or to the South East, like Encrusted Pottery people. Some groups got nearly completely annihilated in this aggressive movements, like the Gyulavarsánd group of late Otomani, the "brother" of Füzesabony.
Encrusted Pottery is a perfect fit for the Corded Ware - local high WHG-Neolithic fusion timing proposed, and they were related to some of the other Pannonian groups, which all shared a similar make up at that time, of Epi-Corded and local derivation.

[ph2ter]

Here are some maps which I made for Pribislav. The color scales are absolute to see how distant from modern populations some samples are (dmin=0.03, dmax=0.1):

[altvred]

Hello
Do you have G25 sample EG600042 and thanks

Ukrainian_Rivne:EG600042,0.132035,0.123895,0.06788 2,0.056848,0.035083,0.02259,0.00752,0.003461,0.001 227,-0.019499,-0.003085,-0.009442,0.012636,0.020368,-0.010043,0.006364,0.009909,-0.004307,0.004022,-0.006003,-0.007986,-0.005688,0.007025,-0.009519,0.000838

[leonardo]

David, on Eurogenes, posted, "Proto-Balts had more GAC ancestry than Baltic BA, that's why it looks like Baltic DNA was pulled southwest genetically, but they could have come from the south or even east."
If this is so, then what led to the development of the Proto Slavs, in relation to this Proto Balt development? If I understand things, the Proto Slavs may have well have had a mix with CAC ancestry as well, so what led to the distinction between the Proto Balts and Proto Slavs? More GAC? Different y-dna?

[chum]

What do you guys know/think about HUN_IA_La_Tene_o3:I25524? It's pretty similar to Balts (especially ones admixed with Slavs) and Russian_Pskov which is very Balt admixed, does it have any relation to Slavs?

[Aspar]

What do you guys know/think about HUN_IA_La_Tene_o3:I25524? It's pretty similar to Balts (especially ones admixed with Slavs) and Russian_Pskov which is very Balt admixed, does it have any relation to Slavs?

He is R-M458.
Not very Baltic yDna, more representative for the Slavs.
I would say definitely Balto-Slavic related though.
La Tene's realm most eastern borders was western Ukraine and he might have came ultimately from there or Poland where La Tene was also present.