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Thread: Using 23andMe plus YSEQ to Evaluate Potential NPEs and Paper Trail Errors

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    Using 23andMe plus YSEQ to Evaluate Potential NPEs and Paper Trail Errors

    I am extending my Y-DNA testing to determine the terminal SNP for myself, and assumably, an ancestor that immigrated to North America in 1750. Once my testing is complete I will be able to state that ancestor X, born in European City Y, has a terminal SNP of Z. Of course this statement could be wrong for a variety of reasons including the occurrence of non-paternal events (NPEs) and/or a wrong turn(s) along the paper trail.

    The IIOGG estimates the probability of an NPE within 300 years is 8 to 22 percent. I like to think the probability of a wrong turn on the paper trail is small but it is not zero. So a ballpark lower bound on the combined probability of ancestor X not actually being my ancestor is 10 percent. This might be acceptable in a large surname study but I am working with a rare surname as well as a rare haplogroup for the region in Europe. Some confirmation of the result seems in order.

    I propose to reach out to other descendants of ancestor X in hopes of identifying a few individuals from diverse parts of ancestor X’s descendant tree who are willing to do some Y-DNA testing. I am proposing to start with 23andMe ($99) and then, if they match my R1b-L21 result, follow-up with the L21 panel at YSEQ ($88). This seems like an economical approach to reducing the uncertainty associated with NPEs and research errors.

    All constructive comments on my concerns and approach to address them are welcome.

    Edit: On the way into work it occurred to me that a $17.50 single SNP at YSEQ would probably be sufficient.
    Last edited by Mac von Frankfurt; 07-31-2015 at 04:54 PM.
    R-P312/S116 > L21/S145 > DF13 > Z39589 > A4556 > 2777444-T-C

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Mac von Frankfurt For This Useful Post:

     paulgill (07-31-2015)

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