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Thread: 23andMe Ancestry Composition Results

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    I want to add to my latest post that the lack of proper sampling is still the largest problem of 23andme. Because I went through some of my matches which have tested over generations. The closer they are to areas which seem to have been well-sampled, like South Western Germany, the better for their results in later, complex mixtures. If their ancestry is clearly German but further away from the main sampling areas, the result looks still ok for those fully from the same region, not perfect, but good. Its more messed up in those having half-German ancestry, but its still in the acceptable range and largely ok, not much worse than Ancestry for Central Europeans. But when it gets down to the quarter and below, the algorithm begins to struggle and sometimes swallows almost a quarter of ancestry. On AncestryDNA, some of the results are better, some even on the point, largely I suspect because of their larger sampling and wider definition of German, some are worse.
    But this cases really show that the 23andme algorithm begins to struggle if there are not enough clearly assignable, "ethnic" segments vs. neutral ones. Than those segments better represented in the reference begin to dominate whole segments of the genome in an unjustified manner. But many of these neutral ones are not actually that neutral, but just not in the used references or being deliberately assigned. Swallowing almost a quarter of German in some testers is still not optimal and in the cases I could observe its always because of the lack of proper sampling and outlier removal it seems, with the result getting worse with every generation in the mix. Because at first there are only clearly German segments and neutral ones, while in the mix new ethnicities appear which take the neutral segments over.

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    To add to the German (23andMe vs. Ancestry) discussion..

    My mother get's 88% German on 23andMe, but only 41% on Ancestry (also 17% Sweden and Denmark which is nonsense). My mother is of all German descent, except for an English great-grandparent.

    But it is important to remember, as Riverman points out if I understand him correctly, Ancestry's Germanic Europe is quite broad and probably encompasses a lot more eastern geography than 23andMe's F&G. For breaking down the ancestry in my family, 23andMe is better. But understanding Ancestry's Germanic Europe category for what it is, the results are not as off as they might seem at first glance.

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  5. #1533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
    I want to add to my latest post that the lack of proper sampling is still the largest problem of 23andme. Because I went through some of my matches which have tested over generations. The closer they are to areas which seem to have been well-sampled, like South Western Germany, the better for their results in later, complex mixtures. If their ancestry is clearly German but further away from the main sampling areas, the result looks still ok for those fully from the same region, not perfect, but good. Its more messed up in those having half-German ancestry, but its still in the acceptable range and largely ok, not much worse than Ancestry for Central Europeans. But when it gets down to the quarter and below, the algorithm begins to struggle and sometimes swallows almost a quarter of ancestry. On AncestryDNA, some of the results are better, some even on the point, largely I suspect because of their larger sampling and wider definition of German, some are worse.
    But this cases really show that the 23andme algorithm begins to struggle if there are not enough clearly assignable, "ethnic" segments vs. neutral ones. Than those segments better represented in the reference begin to dominate whole segments of the genome in an unjustified manner. But many of these neutral ones are not actually that neutral, but just not in the used references or being deliberately assigned. Swallowing almost a quarter of German in some testers is still not optimal and in the cases I could observe its always because of the lack of proper sampling and outlier removal it seems, with the result getting worse with every generation in the mix. Because at first there are only clearly German segments and neutral ones, while in the mix new ethnicities appear which take the neutral segments over.
    I really can't see where Ancestry is doing better vis vis German ancestry than 23andMe is. On paper my ancestry is about 35% "Palatine German". Now, I understand that the Palatine migration was somewhat broader than what is considered the Palatine today, and likely even included some folks from Switzerland and elsewhere. But we're still talking about people who were basically German. Yet Ancestry only assigns me 4% "Germanic Europe". This is far and away the lowest of any of the five DNA testing companies I've used.

    Considering that significantly more than half the surnames on my father's side -- including the Y DNA ancestor that brought my family's surname to America -- are of German origin. My surname has been Americanized, but it's still pretty recognizable. In its German form, it likely originated in Austria or Bavaria. And perhaps it's of some note that my haplogroup falls within R1a rather than R1b, but the haplogroup appears likely to have a central European origin rather than an eastern European one.

    I should also note that the 35% figure is based solely on ancestry on my father's side. It doesn't include the contribution of my maternal grandmother's Alsatian-born grandmother, or the small amount of French and Swiss also on my mother's side.

    When including these ancestries, my ancestry from central Europe -- specifically Germany, France (including Alsace-Lorraine) and Switzerland -- is 45.7%. Not the mere 4% that Ancestry assigns me as "Germanic Europe". It isn't quite half, but pretty close. This seems like rather a lot to be off by if Ancestry's ability to detect "German" is better than that of 23andMe.

    Now, to be fair, they technically aren't assigning all this continental ancestry to "England", but rather to the category they call "England and Northwestern Europe". They clearly understand that this isn't actually synonymous with synonymous with "English" ancestry, even though in various ways they act as if it is.

    I think their basic problem is that if they were really try to separate out purely "English" ancestry, the category would be too restricted to properly capture English diversity. But despite the larger sample size for "Germanic Europe", I am convinced that they ended up sacrificing a lot of German diversity. Just adding more samples is not the answer, because how you determine what samples are in or out can really shape the panel no matter how large it is.

    Remember, one action they took was to remove "outliers". But exactly how do you determine who really is an outlier? When a sample meets the inclusion criteria or not be too closely-related to other samples and having a long history of ancestors from the region, being somewhat closer to samples from nearby regions may just be a part of that region's population structure. That is, some Germans may simply appear "more English" than others -- regardless of how long their ancestry has come from Germany.

    Interestingly, though, if you look at the Ancestry's boxplots for England & Northwestern Europe and Germanic Europe, you find a heck of a lot more ENWE samples that were far outside the "norm" for the region than you do for samples from Germanic Europe.

    England & Northwestern Europe vs Germanic Europe boxplots.JPG

    One question to ask is, from what part of the process do these boxplots come? If they come from later in the process -- as I believe they must -- it may simply mean that Ancestry did a better job of reducing diversity in the Germanic Europe reference panel -- not increasing it. Why else would Germanic Europe look so much more free of outliers?

    Of course, there are really a couple of possibilities here. One is that GE has fewer outliers because the panel is inclusive enough that fewer of the samples are outliers with respect to the remainder of the samples. The other possibility, though, is that we simply don't see as many of the outliers because they were already excluded at an earlier point in the process. I contend that Ancestry included more "borderline" samples in ENWE than they did in GE, because they were more concerned about underestimating "English" ancestry than they were about underestimating "German" ancestry. (This would also have been the reason for Ancestry to exclude possible "outliers" for EWNE later in the process.)

    Ultimately, Ancestry could easily have justified keeping samples in the "England and Northwestern Europe" reference panel if they came from northwestern Europe but not England. After all, there should usually be consistency between a panel name and the location(s) from which samples were taken. But, they appear not to have done this -- because they wanted a reference panel for England.

    Yet if Ancestry kept whatever overlap there was on the EWNE side of the equation -- that is, keeping some samples that might have been closer to "Germanic Europe" but were actually from "England" -- that would be okay, but only if they were more restrictive on the "Germanic Europe" side.

    This actually makes me think of what is done with men where the sex chromosomes are concerned. Although we typically say the X and Y chromosomes don't recombine, that isn't quite true. There are two regions, called PAR1 and PAR2, in which the X and Y chromosomes do recombine. The letters stand for "pseudo autosomal (recombining) regions", and they are located at each end of the chromosome.

    The problem is, in these two regions you can't tell which SNP in each pair is on the X chromosome, and which is on the Y chromosome -- just as you can't determine which X chromosome each SNP at a given location is located on. So you just report pairs, listing them in alphabetical order. That's the reason that at 23andMe men appear to have two short stretches where they have two X chromosomes. These are PAR1 and PAR2. But they don't have two X chromosomes, it's simply that one SNP at each of these locations is actually on the Y chromosome. Since they don't know which one it is, they report the SNPs as pairs on the X chromosome.

    With EWNE and GE, Ancestry should probably have used 23andMe's "out" and reported some DNA as simply "Northwestern Europe" -- noting that it could be from England or it could be from the mainland. But they didn't -- it's all just "England", as far as they're concerned.

    Meanwhile, more European Americans report "German" as an ancestral origin than anything else. I I suspect that "English" is actually an even more common ancestry but may be the most underreported ancestry in America. One thing that is known is that over the last several censuses, the fraction of those who report "English" ancestry has gone steadily down. This is at the same time that the number reporting "American" as their ancestry has gone steadily up. I personally think that it's because English-Americans are the most likely to think of themselves as simply Americans, with no qualifier at all. They certainly aren't trying to say they're Indigenous Americans -- but they don't see themselves as at all "European", either.

    What these last couple of paragraphs were leading up to is this. I think it would be very illuminating to see how Ancestry's estimate of "Germanic Europe" among its customers in America squares with reported German ancestry. It's possible that said ancestry is overreported. But, it's also quite possible that Ancestry is really doing a number on many of the descendants of Palatine Germans by diminishing the scope of that ancestry. Obviously, not in every case, but I suspect in many. This is not likely to be because Ancestry is better than 23andMe at capturing the "diversity" of Germany! (Especially not when what they're trying to do is to be better at capturing the diversity of England.)

    Another complaint of mine is that Ancestry also completely misses my Spanish ancestry. Both of my maternal grandmother's grandfathers immigrated to America directly from the island of Menorca -- as I've reported in earlier posts. And as I noted in an earlier paragraph in this post, one of my grandmother's grandmothers was born in Mulhouse, France -- in Alsace-Lorraine, that is. As a 2nd great grandmother, I should have inherited something in the region of 6.25% of my DNA from her. So it's entirely possible that all of what Ancestry is calling "Germanic Europe" for me came from this one ancestor. That would mean that they're actually missing 100% of my Palatine German, French, and Swiss ancestry -- and maybe even a bit of the Alsatian.

    But even that isn't as bad as the fact that -- alone out of the five companies I've tested with -- they detect none of my Spanish ancestry. With both of my grandmother's grandfather's having immigrated from the island of Menorca, that would have made my grandmother half Spanish. My mother was a quarter Spanish, and I'm an eighth. That works out to 12.5%. Now, that's only my genealogical fraction, and the amount of DNA I actually inherited from these two ancestors could easily be higher or lower. But to have inherited 0% is rather unlikely.

    And, as I said, the other four testing companies all came up with some amount of Spanish. So did Ancestry, prior to 2018, and they also found a very small amount in one of the updates since then. But not now. The problem goes deeper than just that "I know it's there". As I've complained on other occasions, Ancestry allows customers to elect to only show matches ancestries they have "in common". Some of my matches have elected to do this, which means that if they have any "Spanish" or "Portuguese" ancestry, I won't be able to see it.

    I'll conclude by saying that not only is Ancestry the only company not to detect any of my Spanish ancestry, they're also the company that detects the smallest amount of "German". LivingDNA -- which like Ancestry detects an excessive amount of "British" ancestry -- is next smallest, at 16.4%. That's still 12% higher than Ancestry, but about 21.3% lower than LivingDNA detects in my 23andMe upload.

    Unfortunately, I can't use a host of other relatives to test my Ancestry results as I can with my 23andMe results. At 23andMe, for example, my father and all five of my full siblings have tested. So have a couple of 1st cousins once removed (on my father's side), as well as some other fairly close relatives.

    My father's "French & German" is given as 47.1% -- which is actually 1.7% lower than my own, even though my father's German ancestry is more than mine. In balance, I get a whatever Alsatian, French, and Swiss I inherited from my mother, but probably no other German. On the other hand, 23andMe calls Germany a highly likely match for my father, whereas Germany and Switzerland are only called likely matches for me. But again, this is in contrast to Ancestry's "4%" for me.

    Here's what I get from the two testing companies whose results I haven't mentioned yet: MyHeritage gives me 36.6% "North and West European", and FTDNA says 54% "Central European". So, once more, I'm unpersuaded that Ancestry does better at capturing Germany's genetic diversity than 23andMe does. In my view, Ancestry does far worse. At least, that's certainly true for me.

    [Obviously I get kind of rambly at 3 AM. ]
    Besides British-German-Catalan, ancestry includes smaller amounts of French, Irish, Swiss, Choctaw & another NA tribe, possibly Catawba. Avatar picture is: my father, his father, & his father's father; baby is my eldest brother.

    GB

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  7. #1534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.G View Post
    To add to the German (23andMe vs. Ancestry) discussion..

    My mother get's 88% German on 23andMe, but only 41% on Ancestry (also 17% Sweden and Denmark which is nonsense). My mother is of all German descent, except for an English great-grandparent.

    But it is important to remember, as Riverman points out if I understand him correctly, Ancestry's Germanic Europe is quite broad and probably encompasses a lot more eastern geography than 23andMe's F&G. For breaking down the ancestry in my family, 23andMe is better. But understanding Ancestry's Germanic Europe category for what it is, the results are not as off as they might seem at first glance.
    Ancestry is just worse in distinguishing Scandinavian and British from Germanic Europe. Not always, but quite often. Basically it means for the Central European context that anything Scandinavian plus British must be added to Germanic Europe.

    Quote Originally Posted by geebee View Post
    I really can't see where Ancestry is doing better vis vis German ancestry than 23andMe is.
    They are not generally better, but they have a broader sample for Central European Germanic and less of a problem with lack of sampling. Their algorithm is not better. So if 23andme has a good sample without too many outliers, they will excel, beause their algorithm is better. I just saw people which results make clear that 23andme sometimes has wrong references, while Ancestry has better ones. The main reason is that they seem to have taken a lot of US Germans from various regions which plot close. Because I know from those matches that they plot clearly German on most tools. 23andme on the other hand just took 4 gp samples from the most classical German regions it seems and includes for much of Europe a lot of ethnic outliers.

    One question to ask is, from what part of the process do these boxplots come? If they come from later in the process -- as I believe they must -- it may simply mean that Ancestry did a better job of reducing diversity in the Germanic Europe reference panel -- not increasing it. Why else would Germanic Europe look so much more free of outliers?
    Possibly because they have used a wide range of German speakers from the US which plot close - if this was one of their main quality controls, this already would make it more inclusive segment wise than the limited sampling from 23andme.

    And their algorithm just puts English before German and German before other European ethnic ancestry components in doubtful cases.

    Here's what I get from the two testing companies whose results I haven't mentioned yet: MyHeritage gives me 36.6% "North and West European", and FTDNA says 54% "Central European". So, once more, I'm unpersuaded that Ancestry does better at capturing Germany's genetic diversity than 23andMe does. In my view, Ancestry does far worse. At least, that's certainly true for me.
    What My Heritage and FTDNA is lacking is consistency and they include exotic components which are just not there for many Germans, because their calculation oftentimes needs to balance extreme positions out. On Ancestry if someone is let's say half or one quarter German, vs. something non-Germanic, I can expect him or her to score largely correct if adding all Germanic components up. On My Heritage and FTDNA never. There are such absurds results among my matches sometimes, that it doesn't really help to determine at first look what kind of background an individual has.
    Obviously, my focus is not at British vs. continental Germanic. Yet I also have to say that practically every individual with one quarter German ancestry gets German, Swedish and Norwegian. Its a good signal for me, most of the time down to 1/8 at least. That German related matches of mine have no Germanic speaker is rare, that they don't have Scandinavian as well is very, very rare. So one look and I can say whether someone might be a German match. Same goes for Eastern European etc.

    On MH and FTDNA, the same reliability is just not there. On 23andme its usually as good to better, but there are the described exceptions because of the sample issue.

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  9. #1535
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    Quote Originally Posted by geebee View Post
    Remember, one action they took was to remove "outliers". But exactly how do you determine who really is an outlier? When a sample meets the inclusion criteria or not be too closely-related to other samples and having a long history of ancestors from the region, being somewhat closer to samples from nearby regions may just be a part of that region's population structure. That is, some Germans may simply appear "more English" than others -- regardless of how long their ancestry has come from Germany.
    ^^^ Great comments/point.

    Obviously I get kind of rambly at 3 AM.
    That's okay, I quite enjoyed the read, and also your insightful comments. Simply great stuff from you and also from Riverman.

    Bottom line for me: Ancestry needs more work than 23andMe does, in regards to sorting and correctly assigning German ancestry. Actually, their general handling of mixed European ancestry, particularly between neighboring regions, needs work. Looks like they made no progress on that front at all, with this latest update.

    I'll add one more thing. My mother does indeed get communities for her Germanic Europe (Central/SW Germany [Frankfurt-Rhine-Main]. Me on the other hand, who scores much more Germanic Europe than she does, get's no German community. I do get an English community, in spite of the fact I am only 1/16 English. Laughably, this is the only community that I get.

    In contrast, 23andMe gives me both German recent ancestor locations and Eastern European recent ancestor locations (including Hungary), but no British and Irish locations (although my mother does score some recent UK ancestor locations). This is much more aligned with my paper trail/family history. 23andMe has been the better customer experience for me.
    Last edited by Mr.G; 10-15-2021 at 02:42 PM.

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  11. #1536
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    I currently think 23andMe and Ancestry are equally inconsistent in distinguishing German and English.

    Ancestry does it right for me, and same with the last estimate, and in both cases put my sister's German in English (so mess it up for her).

    Ancestry did it mostly right for my dad.

    23andMe also looks right for me (and consistent with Ancestry). It gives me German regions consistent with where my mother's family came from and also my dad's (similar regions). My dad has much less German than my mom, on paper.

    23andMe likely overestimates my dad's French & German (44%, vs. his likely about 12% and my 20%, consistent with what I estimate from my parents (my mom about 25% German and German-speaking Swiss)). Interestingly, it gives him "highly likely" for UK, "possible" for Ireland, and nothing for any of the groups within French and German or anything else (he is on paper 6% French and around 6% German and Swiss, and largely otherwise English and Welsh). His regions for UK are okay except they totally miss East Anglia, where he has a good amount of known ancestry, which I suspect could mean his SE/E English is getting put in French and German.
    Last edited by msmarjoribanks; 10-23-2021 at 01:01 AM.

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    23andMe gave me 20% Broadly French and German.

    The company hasn't gave me any regions in France or Germany. 23andMe cannot distinguish a region and also I get 0.6% broadly NorthwesternEuropean.
    For my 75.4% British&Irish DNA I recieved the greater London, Manchester and greater Dublin area as major regions and 17 minor regions across England, Ireland and Scotland.
    Rounding out the results my 2.9% Eastern Euro is consistent across various testing agencies.

    What follows is only with 23andMe, Ashkenazi Jewish 0.7% NorthAfrican 0.3% Unassigned 0.1%. What doesn't show is any Iberian. The Ashkenazi and NorthAfrican could be a proxy for the Iberian that I pick up at FTDNA. I am also approximately 2% Neanderthal according to 23andme. Interesting results considering my haplogroup falls below DF27 ~ Z209

    23meSDV.jpg
    Last edited by Sean Deven Vincent; 10-24-2021 at 01:08 PM. Reason: Added Graphic

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    Papertrail is western Overijssel, south South-Holland and north North-Brabant (Land van Altena, a protestant area).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean Deven Vincent View Post
    23andMe gave me 20% Broadly French and German.

    The company hasn't gave me any regions in France or Germany. 23andMe cannot distinguish a region and also I get 0.6% broadly NorthwesternEuropean.
    For my 75.4% British&Irish DNA I recieved the greater London, Manchester and greater Dublin area as major regions and 17 minor regions across England, Ireland and Scotland.
    Rounding out the results my 2.9% Eastern Euro is consistent across various testing agencies.

    What follows is only with 23andMe, Ashkenazi Jewish 0.7% NorthAfrican 0.3% Unassigned 0.1%. What doesn't show is any Iberian. The Ashkenazi and NorthAfrican could be a proxy for the Iberian that I pick up at FTDNA. I am also approximately 2% Neanderthal according to 23andme. Interesting results considering my haplogroup falls below DF27 ~ Z209

    23meSDV.jpg
    How do those results compare with your paper trail?

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    Quote Originally Posted by msmarjoribanks View Post
    How do those results compare with your paper trail?
    Fairly well. The English, Irish and Scot documented ancestries are well represented.

    It appears on my results, the Ashkenazi and trace NorthAfrican results are proxies for pre-historic Iberian ancestry.... but *I* could be wrong.

    I'd like more clarity on the French/German results.. where... Westphalia, Bavaria, Savoy, Alsace, Cotentin ....etc. Where? I believe its multiple locations across France and Germany. The French/German component comprises 20% of my ancestry and only one branch has anything documented from Germany.... 7 Generation ago.

    My 2.9% Eastern European is consistent across different testing sites. I also don't know where this comes from exactly but have very strong clues.

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