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Thread: Geographic Imbalances in FTDNA Database: Some Comparisons

  1. #21
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    I've seen the sampling bias used in these forums to dismiss haplogroup concentration information for the Continent and comparisons to the Isles. So it probably bears mentioning that meaningful information can still be obtained in spite of the sampling bias. Many readers probably known this already, but two points need to be addressed. Specifically, I've seen it argued that:

    1) Comparisons of haplogroup concentrations between locations are not valid because of the biased sampling rate. This is false. Haplogroup concentration (such as those seen on distribution maps) for a specific location is independent of the varying sampling rate for different locations. For example, L21 concentration in France is independent of the sampling rate of Ireland. L21 concentration in France depends only on the number of L21 samples from France out of the total number of samples from France.

    2) The sample size of many Continental locations is too low to make an accurate assessment of haplogroup concentrations. This is false. The thousands of samples in France, Germany, etc. are more than sufficient to make statistical statements with high confidence.

    The sampling bias is easily dealt with in analyses. One just needs to keep in mind that it is the percentage of samples out of a particular population that is most relevant, not the number of samples.
    Last edited by miiser; 03-14-2016 at 04:49 AM.

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by miiser View Post
    The sampling bias is easily dealt with in analyses. One just needs to keep in mind that it is the percentage of samples out of a particular population that is most relevant, not the number of samples.
    ^ It's really only where we have very few examples of a haplogroup overall that sampling bias could enter into things, and even then it's relatively easy to make an informed guess based on phylogeny and sampling rates. (E.g. we have about as many cases of R1a-F1345 in Scotland as in the Caucasus, but at several thousand times the sampling rate, Scotland is much more likely to be the destination and the Caucasus the source.)
     

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    Other ancestral Y lines:

    E1b-M81 Ukraine (Ashkenazi)
    E1b-V13 England
    I1-M253 Ireland
    I2-M423 Ukraine
    R1a-L176.1 Scotland
    R1b-L584 Syria/Turkey (Sephardi)
    R1b-L20 Ireland
    R1b-L21 (1)England; (2)Wales?>Connecticut
    R1b-L48 England
    R1b-P312 Scotland
    R1b-FGC32576 Ireland

    Other ancestral mtDNA lines:

    H1b2a Ukraine (Ashkenazi)
    H6a1a3 Ukraine
    K1a9 Belarus (Ashkenazi)
    K1c2 Ireland
    V7a Ukraine

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  5. #23
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    As I discovered in doing my FTDNA England Y-dna study, there is another bias to consider:

    Non R haplotypes are 11% more likely to have a confirmed SNP test compared to R haplotype, and thus will be over represented in the FTDNA data.
    http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...l=1#post131977

    This results in an under representation of R1b subclades compared to other haplogroups in FTDNA projects...at least as it pertains to the British Isles.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 03-14-2016 at 03:17 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by evon View Post
    You see the same problem with 23andme, as these are primarily Anglo-American oriented companies one would expect as much. Most of our matches are American and British/Irish, and our top surnames are Smith etc.
    Yeah it's so bad at 23 that on the new site and the new way they present your most common surname match, 99.9% of all people on 23 get Smith as their #1 choice. Doesn't matter what their background hah!
    I think I checked and not a single one of my top 10 or even 20 surnames was even associated with any of my countries of main ancestry hah.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dubhthach View Post
    Indeed well that's why I caveat'd my post saying I agree about continental countries been under-represented. But I should note that Ireland had two and half times the population of Sweden in 1841. If we look at US historic census up to 1890 there was on average 10x the number of Irish born living in US than Swedish born (Well post 1860 -- when there was 86x number of Irish-born than Swedish-born), 1890 saw massive increase in number of Swedes, even still there was nearly always 2x number of Ireland-born than Swedish born in US up to 1930.

    https://www.census.gov/population/ww...029/tab04.html

    People of Irish background have just been showing up in North America for longer in consistently larger numbers over time. With almost 2 million Irish arriving in North America (US & Canada) from 1840-1855.

    I've lots members in Ireland project whose MDKA in Ireland is back in the 1720's! (Interesting a cohort of those with earliest MDKA think of themselves as Scots-Irish even though they bear Gaelic Irish surnames)

    The population of Ireland is currently at it's highest level since 1861. In 1841 Ireland had about 1/4th the population of Germany, if ye mapped that through to today you be looking at circa 20million, if we were to go with more historic figures for comparison of Ireland and Britain (for last 500 years) you are probably looking at a level of 12-16 million as the population of island of Ireland. (I'm giving it a range of 5:1 -> 4:1)

    Part of issue in general though is that FTDNA database is basically entirely of Diaspora origin, I mean I'd regard myself as a rarity here in Ireland to have ever done Y-DNA testing, I'd imagine of those who have Irish MDKA in FTDNA (ballpark back-of-envelope figures here) that 99%+ were Diaspora origin and of that most (say over 95% were specifically Irish-American)
    In another conversation, Paul C commented, "You're forgetting that the total Irish population - both in Ireland + worldwide diaspora - is between 80-90 million. So Ireland is NOT as overrepresented as you state, nor are some countries as underrepresented."

    It's true in some respects but I think it is important to review the representativeness of the data in light of an intended use.

    For instance, in a discussion of an origin point for a haplogroup modern frequencies really have not much to do with anything. If Irish populations expanded faster in recent times (due to say Roman Catholic practices?) that is not relevant to ancient Irish branching.

    On the other, there must be some methodology and criteria to seeking a representative sampling in science papers as it relates to ancestral origin evaluations. For example, how can we say Germany has enough NGS tests to conclude we understand haplogroups and branching in Germany? I'm afraid the answer is we are a long way off, period. ... and nearly hopeless so modern peoples' data is near useless other than define a bare bones branching skeleton of the tree.

    Our my fears correct?

    Here is a hypothetical example for a fast growing, successful haplogroup. The actual intended use would be the P311 and P312 families of early branches.

    Let's expand on that and use an ancient example of a person who is believed to be a L21+. I'm not saying what he is, but at least we have an example of Irish high king.

    "Keating credits Niall with two wives: Inne, daughter of Lugaid, who bore him one son, Fiachu; and Rignach, who bore him seven sons, Lóegaire, Éndae, Maine, Eógan, Conall Gulban, Conall Cremthainne and Coirpre. These sons are the eponymous ancestors of the various Uí Néill dynasties...."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niall_..._Nine_Hostages

    Niall may have been more of a polygamist than we know, but at least we think he had 8 sons. If this rate of male descendants continued for just a couple of generations look at what we would like get.

    8 son x 8 = 64 grandsons

    64 grandsons x 8 = 512 g-grandsons

    Within just three generations there could be 584 father-son transmission events from Niall on down. (584 = 8 + 64 + 512)

    The rate of SNPs on the Y per father-son transmissions is about one every three to four.

    We could expect 167 SNPs from the hypothetical Niall to g-grandsons example (167 = 584 / 3.5).

    When we are looking at your top-layer L21 list from the NGS tree of DF63, A5846, A7900 and DF13; we can see we could easily be missing a couple of hundred SNPs.

    Were they there and where did they all go?

    If we are missing hundreds of early branches are just evaluating a handful do we have any hopes of using modern people for ancestral origins? I'm afraid there won't even be much discussion on this.

    Perhaps the answer is we can't identify actual origins but potentially major launch points for expansions and migrations.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 05-13-2016 at 12:09 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post

    "Keating credits Niall with two wives: Inne, daughter of Lugaid, who bore him one son, Fiachu; and Rignach, who bore him seven sons, Lóegaire, Éndae, Maine, Eógan, Conall Gulban, Conall Cremthainne and Coirpre. These sons are the eponymous ancestors of the various Uí Néill dynasties...."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niall_..._Nine_Hostages

    Niall may have been more of a polygamist than we know, but at least we think he had 8 sons. If this rate of male descendants continued for just a couple of generations look at what we would like get.

    8 son x 8 = 64 grandsons

    64 grandsons x 8 = 512 g-grandsons

    Within just three generations there could be 584 father-son transmission events from Niall on down. (584 = 8 + 64 + 512)

    The rate of SNPs on the Y per father-son transmissions is about one every three to four.

    We could expect 167 SNPs from the hypothetical Niall to g-grandsons example (167 = 584 / 3.5).

    When we are looking at your top-layer L21 list from the NGS tree of DF63, A5846, A7900 and DF13; we can see we could easily be missing a couple of hundred SNPs.

    Were they there and where did they all go?

    If we are missing hundreds of early branches are just evaluating a handful do we have any hopes of using modern people for ancestral origins? I'm afraid there won't even be much discussion on this.

    Perhaps the answer is we can't identify actual origins but potentially major launch points for expansions and migrations.
    Given that the Irish were hardly Catholic (in a Tridentine sense) before the Famine I'm not sure what your point is, the massed expansion of Irish population in early 19th century was driven by cheap food supply (eg. potato) and demand driven for argricultural products by the likes of the Napolenic war. Of course in the proceeding 300 or so years there had been a number of other times when Irish population had more than doubled before hitting a "population crash" (Cromwellian war been prime one)

    Leaving that aside don't forget that Niall had 4 brothers as well


    eochaid-connachta.png

    What should be noted is that the likes of Céithinn (Keating's) Forsa Feasa ar Éirinn is a work from 17th century that is written in a specific context (eg. the Tudor/Stewart conquest of Ireland) ergo it's not a dispassionate document. That and it inherits a long history of other such texts right back to works of the histories of the 8th century who crafted a common narrative in early Christian period for history/pre-history of Ireland

    A New History of Ireland: Prehistoric and early Ireland
    -- Chapter VII Ireland, 400-800
    https://books.google.ie/books?id=2rw...page&q&f=false

    A more specific read about the Uí Néill been this chapter from TM. Charles Edwards "Early Christian Ireland"



    http://compsoc.nuigalway.ie/~dubhtha..._ui_neill.html

    More of this book can be read here:
    https://books.google.ie/books?id=g6y...page&q&f=false

    Niall if he did actually exist (some historians would argue he's an allegorical figure) was probably no more than a king of a Tuatha (petty kingdom), the importance perhaps of him been driven by conquest of Meath by two of his son's (Fiachu and Coirpre) elevating this lineage within context of wider Dál Cuinn.

    Leaving that aside the expansion (some would say explosion) of the Dál Cuinn (including the Uí Néill) is part of wider picture that we see in Ireland in period 400-600AD, on a smaller scale it's a situation repeated time again throughout the history of Gaelic Ireland given societal structure which allowed for fairly rampant level of divorce and had no concept of illegitimacy (son of a concubine was just as legit as son of a wife). The rapid expansion of the Maguires from 1300 until 1600 is a case in point.

    Anyways if we assume M222 is linked to the Dál Cuinn, than yes we don't have an idea of it's origin (as we are missing early branches etc.) but it's rapid expansion around 1500 years ago (based on TMRCA calculations for major branches) is possibly due to rapid expansion of lineages claiming to be part of the Dál Cuinn (which in 200 year period go from nobodies to ruling directly close on 50% of island and claiming a "titular" High-Kingship over rest)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dubhthach View Post
    Given that the Irish were hardly Catholic (in a Tridentine sense) before the Famine I'm not sure what your point is, the massed expansion of Irish population in early 19th century was driven by cheap food supply (eg. potato) and demand driven for argricultural products by the likes of the Napolenic war. Of course in the proceeding 300 or so years there had been a number of other times when Irish population had more than doubled before hitting a "population crash" (Cromwellian war been prime one)
    In another discussion I was following Goldenhind's theme about how biased the FTDNA database is so you'd have to multiply results X times to compensate for lack of testing in many European countries and try to have a straight comparison with the UK.

    One counter-argument (from Paul C), which is a fair point, is that we should add the Irish-Americans to the current Irish population to calibrate the X times factor. The net is there are so many Irish-Americans it would balance things out quite a bit.

    The whole thing just causes me to reconsider how valuable modern population frequencies are in terms of ancient, ancient ancestral origins. The answer is probably "not very" but it does matter the context.

    If the context is do we have the ancient early branching covered then a representative survey may not be needed. I was trying to use the Niall example as a possible L21, DF13, DF63, etc. scenario. A very prolific family would have created a couple hundred SNPs in just a few generations. If we contrast that with the handful in the top layer of L21, DF13, DF63, etc. the challenge is there must be multitudes of ancient branching missing. What happened? Probably most died out but there might some in places like Benelux or Germany or France but that goes back to the original concern which is have we done enough NGS testing of those countries?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dubhthach View Post
    Leaving that aside don't forget that Niall had 4 brothers as well
    This really wasn't about Niall or his brothers or M222. This was just about an ancient Celtic elite paternal lineage possibility.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 05-13-2016 at 06:59 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    ... What happened? Probably most died out but there might some in places like Benelux or Germany or France but that goes back to the original concern which is have we done enough NGS testing of those countries?
    Paul D, what is the total # of Big Ys in the Ireland Heritage project on the statistics page?

    I can count the German Language Area project. It's 345

    The Irish project must have about 3-4 times of that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post

    This really wasn't about Niall or his brothers or M222. This was just about an ancient Celtic elite paternal lineage possibility.
    The thing is you can't take early medieval Irish lineage dynamics and apply it to wider Celtic speaking Europe, the rapid expansion we see in lineages in Ireland appears to be result of turmoil/changeover in the immediate post christian period. As some have pointed out, Ireland moved from a tribal society to one based on lineage (one could say obsessed) in a relatively short period.
    Last edited by Dubhthach; 05-13-2016 at 08:22 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    Paul D, what is the total # of Big Ys in the Ireland Heritage project on the statistics page?

    I can count the German Language Area project. It's 345

    The Irish project must have about 3-4 times of that.
    671 or about ~10% of project members which today is at 6,859 (6,814 have posted Y-DNa results), the figure of about 10% is fairly equivalent for the German project, which apepars to be about half size of Ireland one.
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