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Thread: Geographic Imbalances in FTDNA Database: Some Comparisons

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dubhthach View Post
    671 or about ~10% of project members which today is at 6,859 (6,814 have posted Y-DNa results), the figure of about 10% is fairly equivalent for the German project, which apepars to be about half size of Ireland one.
    Yes, this is proportionally representative per project size, but is this representative of the SNP branching discovery work needed to uncover the tree, at least for R1b-P311 or more specifically for R1b-L21?

    I think the answer is we don't know until we've done it and we face the law of diminishing returns where new ancient branches are no longer discovered as new results come in.

    I'm using the German Language project as an example partially because southern Germany, Switzerland over to the Czech Republic is the traditional "Proto-Celtic" zone.

    I disagree with the legacy this was an Iron Age phenomenon as I think it was much earlier, even to preceed the Celtic from the West theory, but the location is right.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 05-13-2016 at 11:49 PM.

  2. #32
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    Reply to goldenhind about the geographical inbalances.
    I would like to reply to your pm reply but I am sorry that I am not able to because your "Inbox" is full. I hope to communicate later.

  3. #33
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    Does anybody know where I can find the breakdown of the FTDNA database per country?

  4. #34
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    This is a bit off topic.... but in reading that picture of what you posted I can see now where J.R. Tolkien got his inspiration for his languages and names and places in his writings.

  5. #35
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    There are not only geographic biases - primarily due to the ethnic makeup of the America's appetite to connect to their homelands - but there are other biases:

    1) Recent haplogroups that are more prolific tend to draw more testing since better sample sizes leads to better results. Also, having a predictable single signature YSNP haplogroup helps as well as having genetic isolation from other haplogroups. Prolific lines are usually associated with strong leadership and wealth - M222 and L226 due to both uniting / conquering all of Ireland helped with these haplogroups enjoy prolific growth.

    2) Even within these prolific haplogroups - there are many who have genetic testing challenges and less initial success tend and these testers to lose interest. For L226, we have hit a testing bottleneck with the current state of NGS testing, SNP pack testing and YSEQ private YSNP testing. The percentage that I can chart with signatures has now peaked at around 80 %. There are four factors that prevent this number growing to 90 to 95 %:

    a) Technology limits of YDNA testing. With 80 NGS tests and 80 L226 SNP packs, new branches are just not being discovered with every Big Y these days. So until the long read FGS/WGS yields 2X coverage of the Big Y for not much more cost, until the L226 SNP pack doubles in numbers of private YSNPs included, until all 111 markers can be read with longer read lengths in NGS tests or until YSEQ testing of private YSNPs becomes more widespread - the normal rate of progress will continue to drop off until the next technology improvement and charting will stuck at 80 %.

    b) There are lot of smaller genetic clusters of related individuals where there just is less interest and less leadership within the cluster - so progress is very slow when leadership in these clusters are not present to encourage YSNP testing of smaller clusters as well as "growing the genetic YSTR cluster."

    c) There are those that are barely part of L226 with very high genetic distance from the L226 signature, high genetic distance with matches and the few matches that they do have - never have the same surname since they belong to very old branches that are not prolific. These people are less interested in testing for the future when they do not experience the same success of more recent and more prolific branches (or well tested branches).

    d) L226 (and M222 has this as well) has around 10 % where the genetic distance is only two or three from the L226 signature that is 1,500 years old (this ignores the CDY markers that are just too volatile to use for charting). We actually have one tester that has a genetic distance of zero after 1,500 years and has 400 "FTDNA matches" at 67 markers. His matches include around 25 branches that are known to be over 1,000 years old. Some of these testers have 80 to 90 % false match rates at 67 markers with the FTDNA matching system. The false hit rate primarily depends on how large the branch is. The only solution for these people will be 400 YSTRs or extensive YSNP testing since YSTRs are not reliable for relatedness.

    Unless our L226 project can sponsor some of this testing, we are just are not going to be able to chart more than 80 % of the testers. For every new Big Y and L226 SNP pack ordered that reveals more to chart, you have the same percentage of new 67 marker only testers joining the ranks of L226 as well. Just like was suggested that we should fund the Italians even though we are not Italians, it is the same issue of getting others to pay for the testing of the needs of the project (in this case - comprehensive and accurate charting) - which is what genealogists really want from their testing. Getting people to fund testing of those that are not closely related is a tough sell.
    Last edited by RobertCasey; 07-13-2017 at 09:44 PM.

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  7. #36
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    Anyone know which DNA testing firms are used most in Italy?

  8. #37
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    The attached map illustrates the problem: every dot is a SNP in the complete FTDNA Y tree, located as a weighted average of the user-reported ancestry. I've dithered the dots to show their numbers. Country "centers" are easily seen for Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Poland (weakly), Russia, Spain, and Saudi Arabia. But England, Ireland, Scotland, and the UK (a separate dot between the other 3) overwhelm all of the others.

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  10. #38
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    United States of America Lebanon Germany England Belgium Scotland
    It gets confusing!

    How to account for all the factors?
    For instance, these are the reporting DF19s on FTDNA. The massive over-reporting UK block is in force.
    France has nearly 7 times the population of Sweden, and more than 10 times that of Norway, but maybe Sweden reports as a higher percentage of population than France?
    Or do the French Canadians help mitigate this?

    England 81 20.56%
    Germany 74 18.78%
    Scotland 61 15.48%
    United States 39 9.90%
    Ireland 31 7.87%
    United Kingdom 21 5.33%
    Netherlands 13 3.30%
    Belgium 13 3.30%
    France 9 2.28%
    Northern Ireland 9 2.28%
    Sweden 7 1.78%
    Canada 6 1.52%
    Norway 5 1.27%
    Wales 5 1.27%
    Poland 4 1.02%
    Czech Republic 4 1.02%
    United States (Native American) 3 0.76%
    Switzerland 2 0.51%
    Austria 1 0.25%
    Luxembourg 1 0.25%
    Portugal 1 0.25%
    Guyana 1 0.25%
    Denmark 1 0.25%
    Italy 1 0.25%
    Isle of Man 1 0.25%
    Unknown Origin 391 **
    R1b>M269>L23>L51>L11>P312>DF19>DF88>FGC11833 >S4281>S4268>Z17112 (S17075-)

    Y-cousin: 6DRIF-23 (DF19>>Z17112+, S17075+)

    Ancestors: Francis Cooke (M223/I2a2a) b1583; Hester Mahieu (Cooke) (J1c2 mtDNA) b.1584; Richard Warren (E-M35) b1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b1583;
    John Mead (I2a1/P37.2) b1634; Rev. Joseph Hull (I1, L1301+ L1302-) b1595; Benjamin Harrington (M223/I2a2a-Y5729) b1618; Joshua Griffith (L21>DF13) b1593;
    John Wing (U106) b1584; Hermann Wilhelm (DF19) b1635

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  12. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by rkenobi View Post
    The attached map illustrates the problem: every dot is a SNP in the complete FTDNA Y tree, located as a weighted average of the user-reported ancestry. I've dithered the dots to show their numbers. Country "centers" are easily seen for Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Poland (weakly), Russia, Spain, and Saudi Arabia. But England, Ireland, Scotland, and the UK (a separate dot between the other 3) overwhelm all of the others.
    Nice job! I wish Spain and Portugal had at least half the dots that the Isles have. France could use some more too.

  13. #40
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    Norway, Ireland and Sweden are among the few countries from which around 25 to over 50 percent of the entire population emigrated to the United States, between the late 1840s and early 1920s. Sweden/Finland and (mostly Northern) Ireland also had small but genetically influential populations well established in eastern North America during the colonial period (before US independence). All of that contributes to the weighting of the FTDNA customer base, in ways that aren't reflected by comparing today's population figures for various European countries.

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